After the furore of the Ryder Cup we’re back to PGA Tour action this week as we move to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship, having landed Sahith Theegala at 20/1 (bet365) last time out at the Fortinet Championship.
A staple on the PGA Tour since 1994, the Sanderson Farms has been promoted from an alternate event to a full 500 Point FedEx Cup event, with a healthy $8.2 million on the table for the visiting players. For reference, this week’s DP World Tour event – the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – has a $5 million fund. Field quality is down on 2022 with Ryder Cup star Ludvig Aberg heading a field that also contains Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, Lee Hodges and Lucas Herbert from within the world’s top 60.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Sanderson Farms Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Despite extending the Country Club of Jackson course by 57 yards in 2018, the course doesn’t hold too many fears for PGA Tour pros. At 7,461 yards for a Par 72, length is pretty standard for these modern times, especially as it’s set on a flat property with fairways that are relatively wide by modern standards. Trees are a feature on most holes, but they’re relatively sparse and the course features plenty of straight holes.
Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, Mississippi: Designer: Wilson , 1962, Fought redesign, 2008; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,461 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass with Zeon Zoysiagrass, 2″; Greens: 6,200 sq.ft average Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermudagrass.
Course Scoring Average: 2014: 71.47 (-0.53), Difficulty Rank 27 of 52 courses. 2015: 70.47 (-1.53), Difficulty Rank 46 of 50 courses. 2016: 71.06 (-0.94), Difficulty Rank of 34 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.83 (-0.17), Difficulty Rank of 21 of 51 courses. 2018: 71.25 (-0.75), Difficulty Rank 26 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.90 (-1.10), Difficulty Rank 26 of 41 courses. 2020: 71.08 (-0.92), Difficulty Rank 32 of 51 courses. 2021: 69.87 (-2.13), Difficulty Rank 45 of 50 courses. 2022: 71.15 (-0.85), Difficulty Rank 29 of 50 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the CC of Jackson and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
Course Overview: The course is a mixture of 2 sets of 9 holes, namely Azalea and Dogwood. John Fought, who re-modelled the course in 2008, is an admirer of Donald Ross’s work and as such it’s interesting to note that green complexes on the whole are raised and have run-off areas similar to many a Ross design.
Greens are pretty average in size – 6,200 sq.ft. average – and feature UltraDwarf Champion Bermudagrass, the likes of which were found at previous tournament host course Annandale, but also feature at Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship +2022 CJ Cup), Trinity Forest (2018 + 2019 HP Byron Nelson), TPC Southwind, RTJ Trail (Grand National – Barbasol Championship 2015 – 2017), Sedgefield (since 2012) and Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship). Visually the course looks quite tight and with Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati, Cody Gribble, Ryan Armour, Sebastian Munoz, Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns all ending up at least mid-division for driving accuracy when winning here, a level of respect off the tee seemed a prerequisite.
However the severe “bomb and gouge” tactics of Cameron Champ worked fantastically well in 2018 as he posted (at the time) a CC of Jackson record winning score of -21/267 to beat Corey Conners by 4 shots. Plus 2022 saw Mackenzie Hughes hit only 27 of 56 fairways (48.2%) and was 30 yards off the tee shorter than Champ as he edged out Sepp Straka in a play-off. Hitting fairways is therefore no prerequisite for victory here in Mississippi.
The Country Club of Jackson does present a level of challenge and interestingly we’ve seen a mix of relatively fast, soft and cold/windy conditions across the past 9 renewals held here. Ultimately though winning scores of -20/268, -19/269, -21/267, -18/270, -19/269, -22/266 and -17/271 over the past 7 years highlight a tournament where low scoring and top-notch Champion Bermudagrass putting are the order of the day.
The key to contending here seems to be to unlock a relatively difficult set of par-5s – in the top 10 most difficult for Birdie or Better Conversion on the PGA Tour most years – whilst scoring well on a set of par-4s that are far easier in comparison. Taylor, Malnati, Gribble, Armour and Champ all topped the field for birdies made on their way to victories here; Munoz, Garcia, Burns and Hughes were ensconced within the top 10 for birdie and better conversion, whilst only leaking 3, 5, 4 and 4 bogeys respectively.
Sanderson Farms Championship Winners: 2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17); 2021: Sam Burns (-22); 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19); 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18); 2018: Cameron Champ (-21); 2017: Ryan Armour (-19); 2016: Cody Gribble (-20); 2015: Peter Malnati (-18); 2014: Nick Taylor (-16).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Tom Hoge, Sam Ryder, Eric Cole, Webb Simpson, Emiliano Grillo, K.H. Lee, Nate Lashley, Joel Dahmen, Peter Malnati and Luke List.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind NNE 10-15, gusting to 20 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 79. Wind N 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 83. Wind N 6-12 mph.
2021: Thursday: Overcast, with light showers off and on. High of 82. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with possible showers. High of 82. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 7-14 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 73. Wind NE 4-8 mph in the morning, switching to NNW 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 2:46 p.m. CT and called for the day at 5:57 p.m. Friday: Round one resumed at 7:01 a.m. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to darkness, round two was suspended at 7:03 p.m. Saturday: Round two resumed at 7:30 a.m. and ended at 9:34 a.m. Third-round tee times were adjusted to be between 10:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. in threesomes of Nos. 1 and 10. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Due to darkness, round one was suspended for the day at 6:13 p.m. and resumed at 8:20 a.m. Friday (12 players). Friday: Round one concluded at 8:41 a.m., with round two beginning as scheduled at 7:20 a.m. Light rain and cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind W 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 79. Wind SSW 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: High of 58. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny and cool, with a high of 63. NW wind 7-12 mph.
2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 87. Wind S 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 88. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.
2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with showers off and on throughout the day. High of 81 degrees. Winds SSW 7-14 mph. Friday: Due to lightning, round two was suspended for the day at 4:49 p.m. Saturday: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. High of 68 degrees, with NNE winds 10-15 mph. Play was called for the day just before 2 p.m. local time with 76 players remaining to complete the second round. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 62 degrees. NNE winds 10-15 mph. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66 degrees. Winds NNW 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Jackson, Mississippi is here.
Now we do see varied turf conditions from year to year here. With only 15mm of rain in September, 30 degree Celsius temperatures soon absorb that level of moisture. So with a low chance of rain pre-Thursday I would expect firm fairways and watered, receptive greens. Calm on Thursday with low scoring available, Friday and Saturday will see northerly winds gusting anything up to 20 mph. Naturally this will keep a slight lid on scoring. We also see a change of temperature within the tournament. Both Thursday and Friday will see temperatures up to 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit). This could then fall to 22-25 degrees Celsius (72-77 Fahrenheit) on the weekend, leaving the organisers the opportunity to not water the greens as heavily.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Wyndham Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Keith Mitchell; 2) Hayden Buckley / Doug Ghim; 4) Ludvig Aberg / Luke List; 6) Davis Thompson; 7) Stephan Jaeger; 8) Sam Bennett; 9) Brent Grant; 10) Akshay Bhatia / D.J. Trahan; 12) Lucas Herbert / Adam Svensson; 14) David Lipsky / Webb Simpson / Carson Young; 17) Erin van Rooyen; 18) Vincent Whaley; 19) Emiliano Grillo / Robert Streb; 21) Will Gordon; 22) S.H. Kim / Troy Merritt; 24) Lee Hodges; 25) Joel Dahmen.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) Nicholas Lindheim; 3) Adam Svensson; 4) Brandon Wu; 5) Eric Cole / Kevin Roy; 7) Chris Stroud; 8) David Lipsky; 9) Emiliano Grillo / Ryan Moore; 11) Lee Hodges / Mark Hubbard; 13) Chez Reavie; 14) Vincent Whaley; 15) Russell Knox / Austin Smotherman; 17) Troy Merritt; 18) Erik van Rooyen; 19) Doug Ghim / Cody Gribble; 21) Doc Redman / Alex Smalley; 23) Davis Riley; 24) Greyson Sigg; 25) Ludvig Aberg / C.T. Pan / Mathias Schwab.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Ben Crane; 2) Seung-yul Noh; 3) D.J. Trahan; 4) Wesley Bryan / Brandt Snedeker; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Ryan Gerard; 8) Scott Piercy; 9) Satoshi Kodaira; 10) Sam Bennett; 11) Ryan Brehm / Emiliano Grillo; 13) Martin Trainer; 14) Kevin Kisner; 15) Peter Malnati; 16) Matthias Schwab; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 18) Mackenzie Hughes; 19) Stephan Jaeger; 20) Jason Dufner; 21) Marty Dou / Tom Hoge; 23) Ludvig Aberg / Andrew Novak; 25) Troy Merritt.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) D.J. Trahan; 2) Ludvig Aberg; 3) Sam Ryder; 4) Doug Ghim; 5) Troy Merritt; 6) Adam Svensson; 7) Nicholas Lindheim; 8) Stephan Jaeger / Davis Thompson; 10) David Lipsky; 11) Andrew Novak; 12) Keith Mitchell / Matthias Schwab / Vincent Whaley; 15) Emiliano Grillo; 16) Marty Dou; 17) Joel Dahmen; 18) Luke List; 19) Kevin Roy; 20) Erik van Rooyen; 21) Satoshi Kodaira; 22) Eric Cole / Robert Streb; 24) Russell Knox / Greyson Sigg.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Lucas Herbert; 2) Dylan Wu; 3) Ryan Brehm; 4) Kevin Chappell; 5) Ben Crane; 6) Hayden Buckley; 7) Chesson Hadley; 8) Lee Hodges / Brandt Snedeker; 10) Emiliano Grillo; 11) Martin Trainer; 12) Andrew Landry; 13) Garrick Higgo / Adam Svensson; 15) Kyle Westmoreland; 16) Eric Cole; 17) Chris Stroud; 18) Tom Hoge / Peter Malnati; 20) Kelly Kraft; 21) Lanto Griffin; 22) Sam Bennett / Beau Hossler; 24) William McGirt; 25) Austin Cook.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Eric Cole; 3) Adam Svensson; 4) Ryan Brehm; 5) Luke List / D.J. Trahan / Vincent Whaley; 8) Stephan Jaeger / Davis Thompson; 10) Emiliano Grillo / Nicholas Lindheim; 12) Sam Ryder; 13) Kelly Kraft; 14) Lucas Herbert / Satoshi Kodaira / Martin Trainer; 17) Greyson Sigg; 18) Erik van Rooyen / Dylan Wu; 20) Doug Ghim; 21) Sam Bennett / David Lipsky; 23) Lee Hodges / Peter Malnati; 25) Nate Lashley.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at the Country Club of Jackson since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Sanderson Farms Championship winners here at the Country Club of Jackson since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this southern United States Par 72:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). SG Off the Tee: 57th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 14th.
2021, Sam Burns (-22). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 57th.
2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 46th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 5th.
2018, Cameron Champ (-21). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2017, Ryan Armour (-19). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 2nd.
2016, Cody Gribble (-20). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 28th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 1st.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 16th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). 305 yards (25th), 48.2% fairways (50th), 66.7% greens in regulation (37th), 35’3″ proximity to hole (14th), 91.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.63 putts per GIR (8th).
2021, Sam Burns (-22). 315 yards (17th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 34’11” proximity to hole (21st), 55.6 % scrambling (58th), 1.62 putts per GIR (11th).
2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). 306 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (14th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 31″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 66.7% scrambling (29th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). 315 yards (4th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 35″4″ proximity to hole (28th), 80.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.65 putts per GIR (11th).
2018, Cameron Champ (-21). 334 yards (1st), 46.4% fairways (65th), 76.4% greens in regulation (9th), 37″5″ proximity to hole (36th), 58.8 % scrambling (55th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Ryan Armour (-19). 269 yards (69th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 29″5″ proximity to hole (1st), 53.3 % scrambling (60th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2016, Cody Gribble (-20). 312 yards (11th), 51.8% fairways (38th), 72.2% greens in regulation (29th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (31st), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
2015, Peter Malnati (-18). 266 yards (66th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 34″8* proximity to hole (33rd), 58.3 % scrambling (62nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
2014, Nick Taylor (-16). 295 yards (11th), 53.6% fairways (40th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 36″4″ proximity to hole (32nd), 71.4 % scrambling (17th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 24th, Driving Accuracy: 32nd, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Proximity to Hole: 22nd, Scrambling: 32nd, Putting Average 6th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Country Club of Jackson has set-up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Mackenzie Hughes (2022): “Yeah, it was a lot of fun today, and the greens are fantastic. They are some of the best surfaces that we play all year. They’re really fast. You come down grain, downhill, they’re some of the fastest greens you play all year. It’s really fun to get on a roll with the putter when the greens are this good because you feel like you get it on line, it’s going to go in.
Yeah, that putt, you just don’t practice putts that long. It was super fast. I just kept telling myself that I was going to two-putt that putt. I was going to get down there and I was going to make it. My mental demeanour, my outlook has been so much better. I’ve been trying to be really positive. I’ve been trying to tell myself that I’m really good, and I think it’s easy in this game to go the other way and to beat yourself up sometimes. I was pretty relentless in my ability to tell myself that you’re really good and to go trust it.”
Sam Burns (2021): “Yeah, this is one of my favorites all year. I think these are probably some of the best greens we play all year. I like the golf course, I like the Bermuda grass, similar to kind of what I grew up on home, kind of tree-lined fairways and so yeah I’m really excited. I don’t know what the weather looks like, I think it’s going to be okay, so I think the golf course will firm up, get firmer and faster and it will be a good test.”
Sergio Garcia (2020): “Yes, but you have to be, even playing as well as I played today, you’re still going to miss a couple of greens here and there because it’s a little tricky with the way the greens are, as fast as they are. You’re hitting to small spots because you know that if you miss your spot it’s going to run and you’re going to have a longish putt that is not easy to two-putt. Your short game still has to be good, which it has been for me, and your putter has to be good. I’ve been able to put pretty much everything together this week, and I have to do more of the same tomorrow.
I obviously knew that Peter – he finished at 18, so I knew that I needed to birdie one of the last two or three to get ahead. I actually thought I birdied 17. I hit a great putt. I thought I made it. Unfortunately I didn’t. But then I stood up on 18 and I did what I’ve been doing all week. I trusted myself. I aimed down the right side of the fairway and just hit a hard draw, really, really nice drive, actually went quite long because it was playing a little bit into the wind, and it gave me the ability to have an 8-iron into the green instead of having a 6 or something like that, and then just hit, funny enough, my last win, Augusta, well, my last win on the PGA Tour at Augusta, the 8-iron on 15, this time it was the 8-iron on 18, and to almost hit the pin again and to hit it that close, obviously it was a dream come true.”
Sebastian Munoz (2019): “Yeah, so on 6 I hit my driver left and it was unlucky enough that it hit one of the first trees and came back. So by my calculations we had like 235 front with not a lot of options in front of me. Like had to keep it low, and fairway runs on an angle. So it was really easy to hit it from the rough to the rough and have like 90 or 130 out. So I saw, it’s probably like 260 to the pin. That’s what I had the my 3-wood. If I just slice it, which is the shot I feel more comfortable with, fade instead of draw, I could give myself a chance. I saw a bounce there and just reminded me of Phil. What would Phil do? I’m like, Fortune favors the bold, so took it, believed in myself, pulled the shot, and got the up and down. Make it all worth it.
And then back on the playoff hole, all back to the beginning. Still like my heartbeat was still up. All right, calm down. We still got work to do. Still hit a good drive, and from there on. Once I notice Sungjae was over the green, all I wanted to do was kind of keep it short of the pin. I knew that’s a tough up and down. So hit the 9-iron, but it didn’t came as hot as I thought it was going to be from the rough. Left it short, and that’s not an easy chip. These Bermuda greens, they kind of check pretty fast on you. Got to be pretty bold. It’s just different way to play it.”
Cameron Champ (2018): “Obviously driver is the key out here, I think. If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it’s a very scoreable course. So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.”
Ryan Armour (2017): “You just try. I mean, you’re not always going to be able to, but my strength is – obviously have figured this out finally – is driving it in the fairway, hitting it on the green, and trying to make putts. You get some wedges in your hand on 14 and 15, so you’re looking to make up some ground there. 13 is a good little par-3. Just have had good numbers there the last two days. Then 16, chip-in yesterday, 60-footer today. I don’t overpower a golf course. I don’t go for very many par-5s. I had a chance to go for No. 11 and I laid up. It’s just one of those making percentage choices for me.”
Cody Gribble (2016): “Well, first, being in the South, growing up on Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens, it’s something difficult, I think. There were some places in there, I think even on 15 – I think it was 15, yeah, there’s some grain running into you. It’s not a comfortable feeling when you’re having to hit a chip that all that grain is tight going into you. That’s something I’ve been able to learn from a young age, and Randy has done a really good job helping me do that through the years. It goes down to just knowing where the pin is at on every green, and do you have a miss, knowing your misses, knowing where to miss the ball, knowing where you can’t miss the ball. I think in the last 54 holes, I’ve made one bogey, and that was on 12, and the pin was front right, and you cannot miss that ball right. I looked at Bob, and I was like – I watched Andres Romero hit a shot almost in the water left, and he was in a better position than I was 20 feet right of the hole.”
Peter Malnati (2015): “I mean, the course suits my strengths really well. Several of the par-4s I’m able to hit a short iron into. Because of the wetness, the softness of the conditions, I think that sort of neutralized the par-5s. Some of the longer hitters were probably able to get up there in two on the par-5s, but I’d say the majority of the field probably couldn’t, so the par-5s became a bit of a wedge contest, which plays right into my hands. Like I said, several of the par-4s give you a short iron; plays right into my hands. And then the two holes that you would kind of pinpoint as being longer holes, 16 and 18, I really played well all week. I hit it in the water on 16 in the first round I remember, but outside of that, I think I made nothing but pars, maybe a birdie or two even on 16 and 18. If I have a week where I’m going to take those long par-4s and play them well, I really feel like that’s the week when I’m going to be up there and be in contention, and sure enough, it was this week.”
Nick Taylor (2014): “Yeah, the finishing holes 16, 17, 18, it was a good finish. But there were some tougher holes, I think. Some scoring holes on the back nine, both par 5s you can get to the front of the green or around them. 15, I did, and I hit it 20 yards from the green. So I’m not sure if it opened the tee up, but a lot of guys hit driver into that. There were some scoring holes, but you have to hit the fairways on all the par 4s to have a chance to go at the pins because if you have the wet Bermuda, it’s tough to judge coming out of there, and the greens are so quick. So fairways are key for sure, but they’re definitely scoring.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Sanderson Farms Championship since 2014:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Sanderson Farms Championship winners since 2014 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Brian Gay.
3 – Kevin Kisner, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker.
2 – Jason Dufner, Mackenzie Hughes, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Ryan Armour, Jonas Blixt, Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Cody Gribble, Lanto Griffin, Nick Hardy, Lucas Herbert, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, Sung Kang, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, C.T. Pan, Davis Riley, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Adam Svensson, D.J. Trahan, Nick Watney.
It’s clear that up until this point the Sanderson Farms Championship has been volatile in terms of its winners since it moved to its autumn spot in the season. Tour rookie Nick Taylor was a 400/1 shot in 2014, and although Peter Malnati had a season’s PGA Tour experience behind him, his best main Tour finish before arriving in Mississippi had been 14th in Puerto Rico 18 months earlier. Malnati scored in Mississippi at 250/1 with a few punters stumbling on him mainly because he lived down the road in Knoxville, had won on Bermudagrass greens in Brazil on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier in the season, and was known for his birdie-making style in softer conditions.
Cody Gribble in 2016 was a well-backed form horse who had finished 5th in his last Korn Ferry Tour outing and a comfortable 9th on his PGA Tour debut 2 weeks prior in Napa, California. Plenty of punters scored on the Texan rookie at a rather tasty 125/1. 2017 saw Ryan Armour score his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Sanderson Farms – his build-up had included 4th at the Sedgefield hosted Wyndham on the PGA Tour and 2nd at Ohio State GC in the Korn Ferry Playoffs. His win was again at 125/1.
2018 saw Cameron Champ deliver at 66/1. Rated by a couple of commentators as one of the best players to have been promoted from the Korn Ferry Tour, Champ had finished 25th at the season-opening Safeway Open, where he closed with a -4/68 – the joint third best Sunday round. His Korn Ferry Playoffs campaign had seen him finish a best of 16th at the DAP Championship, but Champ was undoubtedly talented, winning the Utah Championship and backing that up with 4 top-8 finishes. He also ranked 2nd for Scoring Average, 3rd for Total Driving, 2nd for Ball Striking, 5th for All-Round across his Korn Ferry promotion season.
2019 saw Sebastian Munoz become the sixth consecutive PGA Tour maiden to win the Sanderson Farms Championship and again at a 66/1 price-point. 2019 had seen Munoz land 4 PGA Tour top-10 finishes, jumping 119 Official World Golf Ranking spots into the bargain. The week previous he had finished like a train at the Greenbrier Classic shooting consecutive Saturday and Saturday 66s, to back-door 7th place. Tellingly he ranked 3rd for SG on Approach at the Greenbrier in-tandem with ranking in the top 7 across my 8-week rolling Strokes Gained Putting tracker.
With a slightly deeper field at the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship, the tournament was remarkable for a 70/1 victory for Sergio Garcia. The price tells the story with Sergio winning off immediate form of MC/MC/66/MC. Clearly with a ceiling far better than his price, Garcia was the sort you could throw in at a price, based upon nothing at all positive in the immediate build-up. Correlating course-wise his win in the 2012 Wyndham at Sedgefield Country Club though was really concrete with the positive Champion Bermudagrass green link.
On to 2021 where Sam Burns won his 2nd PGA Tour title, 5 months after his first, which had been the Valspar Championship at Copperhead. Burns at 16/1 had been joint favourite with Will Zalatoris, and arrived with form which read 17th at the Tour Championship – 8th at the BMW Championship – 21st at the Northern Trust and 2nd at the WGC St Jude Invitational held on the Champion Bermudagrass greens of TPC Southwind.
That takes us onto 2022 which is quite painful as I was on Sepp Straka. Straka, fresh from 7th (72-hole score) at the Tour Championship, was a 40/1 chance and he was eventually defeated in a play off by Mackenzie Hughes who won at 110/1, in a renewal which proved slightly tougher due to 15-20 mph winds on Thursday and Friday.
My Final Sanderson Farms Championship Tips Are As Follows:
Eric Cole is the fearless Number 1 ranked Tour rookie who could seriously take advantage of the drop in class this week. A mini-Tour legend with 56 wins in the Minor League Golf Tour, Cole is not afraid of winning and his performances across 2023 have been eye-catching. 2nd in the Honda Classic at PGA National was a play-off loss to Chris Kirk. 5th at the Mexico Open, 15th at the PGA Championship, 6th at the RBC Canadian Open and 14th at the Wyndham Championship, he was also 4th last time out behind our own Sahith Theegala at the Fortinet Championship.
Eric has already finished within the top 50 of the FedEx Cup so will play all of the Signature events in 2024, so logically the next step is his first PGA Tour victory and/or grabbing a place in the top 50 of the Official Golf Rankings by the close of the year. Hitting that target naturally sees a 2024 Masters invite landing on a player’s doormat pre-Christmas.
Eric’s weakness is his driving but we’ve seen Ryan Armour and Mackenzie Hughes win here at Jackson in recent times and with a little bit of wind forecast and firm fairways – as per last year – I don’t see that as a huge problem for the 35 year-old Californian, who lives in Delray Beach, Florida. In the top 50 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, top 24 for Strokes Gained on Approach and top 12 for Strokes Gained Putting across the whole PGA Tour season, Eric is top drawer from the second shot onwards. He also ranks 1st for Total Birdies and 15th for Birdie Average this season and mentioned at the recent Wyndham Championship, where he was 7th going into Sunday, that he loves playing on Bermudagrass. RESULT: T35
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Adam Svensson 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
As we wave goodbye to the Ryder Cup, 2024 will see the President’s Cup take place at the Royal Montreal Golf Club in Canada. From an International Team perspective, Mike Weir will be the captain and as I stated in a tip preview a while ago, Canadian golf is in the very rudest of health with Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Svensson all having won in the past 12 months on the PGA Tour. The President’s Cup will certainly act as a huge motivating factor for the likes of Svensson, who like Eric Cole finished within the top 50 of the FedEx Cup and will be looking to earn a place in the top 50 of the Official Golf Rankings by the close of the year.
Hugely Bermudagrass positive, Svensson has landed a win and 5 top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour across 92 events and 4 of those have been on Bermuda putting surfaces. 7th at Waialae Country Club, 9th at PGA National and naturally his win at Sea Island last year have been followed up by 13th at TPC Sawgrass and 7th at the Sedgefield in 2023 to date. Solid in all departments, Adam was also 37th at TPC Southwind and 15th last time out at Olympia Fields which remember was a mini-Major with the top 50 players on Tour in attendance. That must have boosted his confidence.
Across my 8-week Stokes Gained analysis Svensson ranks in the top 15 for both Off the Tee and Putting, top 10 for Tee to Green and the top 5 for Approach; he also ranks 3rd for Strokes Gained Current Form behind only Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole. RESULT: T16
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Tom Hoge is the second-highest world ranked player in the Sanderson Farms field. Across his last 5 outings he’s finished 20th at the 3M Open, 21st at the BMW Championship and 14th at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Olympia Fields and Wentworth were high quality fields, yet we find him at 45/1 to win this week.
I had the pleasure of watching Tom on the Friday at Wentworth for a number of holes and his game looked good. The only issue was the putter and as we often see with American golfers who travel overseas, especially to northern Europe, is that they struggle with the 10 on the stimpmeter green speeds which are a rarity on the PGA Tour. 4th for Approach and 11th for Tee to Green at the BMW PGA, he lost strokes on the greens. 5th and 9th for Strokes Gained Putting at his last 2 events in the United States, namely at TPC Southwind (Champion Bermudagrass) and Olympia Fields, if Tom can keep the great tee to green game and be positive again with the putter, I can see him challenging here at the CC of Jackson.
39th (2019) and 28th (2020) here across 2 of his last 3 visits, Hoge was 2nd here in 2020 heading into the weekend, when ranked 201st in the OWGR. RESULT: T13
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Sam Ryder also has to be a danger this week at a tournament where birdies are likely to be very available for 36 holes at the very least. The sort who has been extremely close to winning over his 6 years on the PGA Tour, I think the 33 year-old Floridian has a great chance at the Sanderson Farms to gain that first Tour victory in his 165th Tour start.
A lover of scoreable, long golf courses and especially Par 72s, Ryder is playing the very best and most consistent golf of his career this season. 8th at El Camaleon last autumn, 4th at Torrey Pines and 3rd at TPC San Antonio, he’s also finished 7th at TPC Twin Cities and 14th at Silverado across 2 of his last 4 outings.
Apart from the obvious good form I also like Sam’s game-shape for the challenge that awaits this week at the Country Club of Jackson. This course responds to Strokes Gained on Approach and Putting. In the top 10 for Strokes Gained Approach over his past 4 outings, Ryder has also ranked in the top 12 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green in 3 of his last 4. Link that short term trend to a player who ranks 12th for Strokes Gained Putting and 6th in this field for Birdie Average across the whole season, and any performance towards his ceiling will see him contend for the win. RESULT: T51
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Callum Tarren 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
A strong driver of the golf ball is another angle here at the Country Club of Jackson where Cameron Champ, Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns have won 3 of the last 5 renewals. Callum Tarren is a flusher, whose driving going back to June has been top drawer. And as we see with so many players, when their strength returns, so does the rest of their game. Strokes Gained Tee to Green ranks 29th (RBC Canadian), 14th (Travelers) and 1st (Rocket Mortgage) were held back with negative putting equating to 43rd, 33rd and 29th placed finishes respectively.
However the Darlington, County Durham man over his past 3 outings has also seen the putter cooperate. 15th and 34th for Strokes Gained Putting at both the 3M Open and Fortinet Championship has seen Callum jump to finishes of 13th and 7th across both events.
With his card for 2024 locked-up, it’s free-wheeling time for Tarren who must be looking forward to a course where he finished 13th on debut last year. 15th for Tee to Green that week, he went on to finish 2nd a few weeks later on the Bermudagrass greens of the RSM Classic, played at Sea Island, Georgia. RESULT: T43
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