Course Guide: TPC Deere Run is a drag-strip of a Par 71 where you’d better make birdies or pack your bags come Friday evening. Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Ryan Moore, J.T. Poston and Sepp Straka all managed an eagle or 3 (always a bonus) and 19-22 birdies respectively when winning here, whilst Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson and Spieth again made 24, 22, 30, 24, 24 and 25 birdies respectively when enjoying their successes since 2012. A minimum 1-in-3 birdie or better conversion is traditionally required to get the job done at the John Deere Classic with the course giving chances to both the shortest and longest players. It’s also abundantly clear that the tournament eventually boils down to a putting contest where a sub-1.7 Putts per GIR performance is required if a player wants to be in the Sunday afternoon mix.
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois: Designer: D.A. Weibring 1999, with PGA Tour Design renovation 2006/07; Course Type: Parkland, Resort, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,289 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 3; Number of Sand Bunkers: 76; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Southshore Bentgrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fine Fescue 4″; Greens: 5,500 sq.ft average featuring L-93 Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 12ft
Course Scoring Average:
- 2023: 69.47 (-1.53), Difficulty Rank 38 of 49 courses
- 2022: 69.88 (-1.12), Difficulty Rank 34 of 50 courses
- 2021: 69.51 (-1.49), Difficulty Rank 41 of 51 courses
- 2019: 69.51 (-1.49), Difficulty Rank 35 of 49 courses
- 2018: 69.38 (-1.62), Difficulty Rank 46 of 51 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Deere Run and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
- Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
- TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
- Pinehurst Number 2: Average 35-45 yards wide.
- Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
- Hamilton G&CC: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:29; 325:27; 350:28.
- Colonial: Average 25-30 yards wide.
- Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:32; 300:31; 325:30; 350:29.
- Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
- Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
- Memorial Park: 30–40 yards at 300 yards.
- Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
- TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
- Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
- PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
- Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
- TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
- Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
- Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
- Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
- Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
- Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other D.A. Weibring designs include:
- TPC Four Seasons – AT&T Byron Nelson until 2017
Course Overview: TPC Deere Run is a course that’s extremely scoreable for those players who love to manage their way strategically around a golf course rather than dominate it. With fairways that are easy to hit and receptive 6,000 sq.ft average sized Bentgrass green complexes to aim at, scoring is correspondingly low. Deere Run is a course that offers up opportunities for bombers like Jhonattan Vegas, Patrick Rodgers, Bryson DeChambeau and in 2022 Chris Gotterup, Callum Tarren plus Cam Davis. Conversely plotters like Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and J.T Poston. The key this week will ultimately be a hot putter and minimising bogeys which is always the case on resort-level scoring tests.
Post-cut scoring increases slightly with more difficult pin positions and those with prior knowledge of this event know where those weekend holes will be cut and, more importantly, where to position off the tee to access them. Saying that both Sean O’Hair (2005) and Dylan Frittelli (2019) won this on course debut.
TPC Deere Run is a track that rewards consistency as bogeys in any great volume will cost a player any chance of victory. Fairways are wide for the length of course and 2 of the par-5s (2nd and 17th) are reachable for the whole field. As you’d expect, green complexes run pure and aren’t overly taxing. The tournament tends to be won by excellent putters who can find enough greens and hit the ball close enough to the pin so as to create enough birdie chances. Saying that, ball-striker extraordinaire Bryson DeChambeau won this in 2017, entering the tournament ranked 195th in Strokes Gained Putting, whilst you would also place Lucas Glover in the ball-striker over short game specialist, so it’s as long as it’s short as you would expect at a resort-scoring test.
Another angle to explore this week is to find players who are comfortable on par-3s as TPC Deere Run’s set of short holes yields plenty of birdies each and every renewal.
John Deere Classic Winners: 2023: Sepp Straka (-21); 2022: J.T. Poston (-21); 2021: Lucas Glover (-19); 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21); 2018: Michael Kim (-27); 2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18); 2016: Ryan Moore (-22); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-20); 2014: Brian Harman (-22); 2013: Jordan Spieth (-19); 2012: Zach Johnson (-20); 2011: Steve Stricker (-22); 2010: Steve Stricker (-26).
- 2023: Sepp Straka 73-63-65-62 -21/263 PM/AM Wave
- 2022: J.T. Poston 62-65-67-69 -21/263 AM/PM Wave
- 2021: Lucas Glover 68-63-70-64 -19/265 AM/PM Wave
- 2019: Dylan Frittelli 66-68-65-64 -21/263 AM/PM Wave
- 2018: Michael Kim 63-64-64-66 -27/257 AM/PM Wave
OWGR of John Deere Classic Winners: 2023: Straka 37; 2022: Poston 99; 2021: Glover 115; 2019: Frittelli 133; 2018: M Kim 473.
Cut Line: 2023: -4; 2022: -3; 2021: -4; 2019: -3; 2018: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2023: Round 1 -9; Round 2 13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.
- 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -21.
- 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -19.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.
- 2018: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -22; Round 4 -27.
Path to Victory: Below are the round positions for the winners of the John Deere Classic since 2010:
- 2023 – Sepp Straka: Round 1: 133rd, Round 2: 14th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2022 – J.T. Poston: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 29th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 12th.
- 2019 – Dylan Frittelli: Round 1: 10th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 5th.
- 2018 – Michael Kim: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 5th.
- 2016 – Ryan Moore: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 101st, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2014 – Brian Harman: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2013 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 9th.
- 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 39th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2010 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the John Deere Classic winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2023 – Sepp Straka: Round 1: 11 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2022 – J.T. Poston: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.
- 2021 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2019 – Dylan Frittelli: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2018 – Michael Kim: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2017 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2016 – Ryan Moore: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2014 – Brian Harman: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2013 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 6 back.
- 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2010 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Sungjae Im, J.T. Poston, Sepp Straka, Keith Mitchell, Lucas Glover, Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd and Seamus Power.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
John Deere Classic Winning Prices: 2023: Straka 50/1; 2022: Poston 50/1; 2021: Glover 55/1; 2019: Frittelli 90/1; 2018: Michael Kim 300/1; 2017: DeChambeau 50/1; 2016: Moore 25/1; 2015: Spieth 4/1; 2014: Harman 125/1; 2013: Spieth 40/1; 2012: Zach Johnson 12/1; 2011: Stricker 7/1; 2010: Stricker 16/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 109/1; Average: 63/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2023: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 81. Wind NW 8-14 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with occasional showers. High of 80. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 8-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 84. Wind NW 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph.
- 2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SW 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 10:29 a.m. to 11:45 a.m. CT (1 hour, 16 minutes). Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 87. Wind SE 7-14 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 74. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Cloudy, with light showers throughout the day. High of 70. Wind E 7-14 mph. Sunday: Rain throughout the day. High of 72. Wind NE 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.
- 2018: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 91. Wind S 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High of 87. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended from 5:49 p.m. until 6:40 p.m. Due to additional storms, play was suspended for the day at 7:26 p.m. Saturday: Due to expected inclement weather in the afternoon, third-round tee times took place from 9:20 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. in threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10. Due to a dangerous weather situation, round three was suspended from 10:38 a.m. until 1:11 p.m. Play was again suspended at 5:53 p.m. and resumed at 7:12 p.m. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. W SSE 4-8 mph.
- 2017: Thursday: Partly sunny with a high of 83. Wind WNW 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 77. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 83. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind NE 8-15 mph.
- 2016: Thursday: Overcast, with afternoon thunderstorms. Friday: High of 82. Wind NNW at 8-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind NW at 8-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 82. Wind W at 5-10 mph.
- 2015: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 75. Winds variable at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind SE at 8-15 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with rain and lightning in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High of 81. Wind SE at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SE at 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Silvis, Illinois is here.
Relatively cool and blustery, the week’s weather improves throughout. With 40mm of rain here last week and the serious threat of rain early on Wednesday morning, I would expect a course with some softness and receptiveness to it. That could be topped up as is standard in Illinois at the time of year with thunderstorms across the week. Temperatures rise from 22 degrees Celsius – 72 Fahrenheit, to 27 degrees Celsius – 81 Fahrenheit by the close. I see nothing to suggest that the winning score is not in the -20 or below bracket.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Wells Fargo Championship / Myrtle Beach Classic which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Cameron Champ / Luke Clanton; 3) Patrick Fishburn; 4) Jhonattan Vegas; 5) James Hahn; 6) Jordan Spieth; 7) Jackson Buchanan / Sam Stevens; 9) Davis Thompson; 10) Kevin Dougherty / Sungjae Im; 12) Hayden Buckley / Rico Hoey; 14) Kevin Chappell; 15) Joe Highsmith; 16) Neal Shipley / Adam Svensson; 18) Chris Gotterup / Kevin Yu; 20) Jimmy Stanger; 21) Keith Mitchell; 22) Aaron Rai / Sepp Straka; 24) Hayden Springer; 25) Pierceson Coody.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scott Piercy; 2) Sepp Straka; 3) Seung-yul Noh; 4) Aaron Rai; 5) Kevin Yu; 6) Nicholas Lindheim; 7) Seamus Power; 8) Lee Hodges / David Skinns; 10) Luke Clanton; 11) Nick Dunlap / Bill Haas; 13) Doug Ghim; 14) Keith Mitchell; 15) Michael Kim / Ryan McCormick / Kevin Streelman / Davis Thompson; 19) Joseph Bramlett / Chan Kim / Chandler Phillips; 22) Adam Svensson / Tom Whitney; 24) Rafael Campos / Troy Merritt / Greyson Sigg.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Richy Werenski; 2) Austin Cook; 3) Seung-yul Noh; 4) Vincent Whaley; 5) Bill Haas; 6) Anders Albertson; 7) Scott Piercy / Davis Thompson; 9) Chris Gotterup; 10) Jorge Campillo / Andrew Putnam; 12) Neal Shipley; 13) Brendon Todd; 14) Wilson Furr; 15) Sungjae Im / Ryan Moore / Roger Sloan; 18) Jacob Bridgeman / Maverick McNealy; 20) Aaron Rai / Sam Stevens; 22) Eric Cole; 23) Patrick Fishburn / Robby Shelton; 25) Beau Hossler.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scott Piercy; 2) Davis Thompson; 3) Aaron Rai; 4) Neal Shipley; 5) Kevin Yu; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Patrick Fishburn; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Sepp Straka; 10) Chan Kim / Adam Svensson; 12) Patton Kizzire; 13) Jordan Spieth; 14) Luke Clanton; 15) Richy Werenski; 16) Maverick McNealy; 17) Doug Ghim / Joe Highsmith / Sam Stevens; 20) Nicholas Lindheim / Mac Meissner; 22) Dylan Frittelli / Jhonattan Vegas; 24) Lee Hodges / Michael Kim.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Denny McCarthy; 2) Jason Day; 3) Matt Kuchar; 4) Ryan McCormick; 5) Blaine Hale Jnr / Ben Silverman; 7) Ryan Palmer; 8) Ben Kohles / Andrew Putnam; 10) Nate Lashley; 11) Davis Riley; 12) Luke Clanton; 13) Sean O’Hair; 14) Max Greyserman / Chandler Phillips / Sam Stevens; 17) Pierceson Coody / Lee Hodges; 19) Tyson Alexander / Jacob Bridgeman / Thorbjorn Olesen / Roger Sloan; 23) Ben Griffin / Maverick McNealy / Seung-yul Noh / Vincent Whaley.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Aaron Rai; 2) Maverick McNealy; 3) Neal Shipley / Davis Thompson; 5) Sam Stevens; 6) Luke Clanton / Scott Piercy; 8) Jhonattan Vegas; 9) Ben Silverman; 10) Jacob Bridgeman; 11) Patrick Fishburn / Seung-yul Noh; 13) Lee Hodges; 14) Kevin Yu; 15) Sepp Straka; 16) Andrew Novak; 17) Troy Merritt; 18) Sungjae Im / Denny McCarthy / Chandler Phillips / Roger Sloan; 22) Pierceson Coody / Joel Dahmen / Jason Day / Ryo Hisatsune.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Deere Run click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the John Deere Classic winners here at TPC Deere Run gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this north-eastern parkland test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2023, Sepp Straka (-21). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 4th.
- 2022, J.T. Poston (-21). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 31st.
- 2021, Lucas Glover (-19). SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 19th.
- 2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 60th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 15th, SG Putting: 2nd.
- 2018, Michael Kim (-27). SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 47th, SG Tee to Green: 16th, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-18). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 27th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 18th, SG Putting: 2nd.
- 2016, Ryan Moore (-22). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 10th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the John Deere Classic gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this parkland test:
- 2023, Sepp Straka (-21). 308 yards (31st), 75.0% fairways (9th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 30’6″ proximity to hole (12th), 63.6 % scrambling (42nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2022, J.T. Poston (-21). 295 yards (48th), 73.2% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 40’0″ proximity to hole (67th), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (27th).
- 2021, Lucas Glover (-19). 293 yards (41st), 73.2% fairways (24th), 77.8% greens in regulation (15th), 29’2″ proximity to hole (9th), 81.5 % scrambling (5th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
- 2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21). 314 yards (32nd), 78.6% fairways (7th), 77.8% greens in regulation (10th), 31’9″ proximity to hole (22nd), 93.8% scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (22nd).
- 2018, Michael Kim (-27). 295 yards (27th), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 24’11” proximity to hole (1st), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-17). 302 yards (21st), 75.0% fairways (32nd), 79.2% greens in regulation (11th), proximity to hole 30’7″ (13th), 66.7 % scrambling (29th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
- 2016, Ryan Moore (-22). 289 yards (34th), 82.1% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 27’0″ (2nd), 91.1 % scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
- 2015, Jordan Spieth (-20). 284 yards (17th), 69.6% fairways (60th), 72.2% greens in regulation (33rd), proximity to hole 28’9″ (16th), 65.0 % scrambling (32nd), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2014, Brian Harman (-22). 303 yards (18th), 80.4% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 23’3″ (2nd), 66.7 % scrambling (29th), 1.70 putts per GIR (31st).
- 2013, Jordan Spieth (-19). 318 yards (14th), 76.8% fairways (19th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), proximity to hole 34’1″ (56th), 70.0% scrambling (18th), 1.62 putts per GIR (8th).
- 2012, Zach Johnson (-20). 293 yards (47th), 73.2% fairways (34th), 75.0% greens in regulation (26th), proximity to hole 29’7″ (16th), 77.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
- 2011, Steve Sticker (-22). 318 yards (12th), 64.3% fairways (62nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (33rd), proximity to hole 30’2″ (15th), 78.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.55 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2010, Steve Stricker (-26). 292 yards (32nd), 73.2% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (11th), proximity to hole 26’5″ (5th), 64.3% scrambling (24th), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 29th, Driving Accuracy: 24th, Greens in Regulation: 14th, Proximity to Hole: 18th, Scrambling: 15th, Putting Average 10th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Deere Run sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Sepp Straka (2023): “Just found some magic and then started hitting the ball really good, which I did on Thursday too, but really started making some putts. I think that’s the key out here. You’ve got to get the putter hot. Thankfully it stayed hot.
Yeah, thankfully I had a really good ball-striking day and had a hot putter going. So I just tried not to think about any of the situation too much because I was so far ahead of the leaders and just tried to keep making birdies.
So just knowing that I was in 130-something place after the first round and ended up winning, you just can’t ever really count yourself out because you could get hot any moment.”
J.T. Poston (2022): “This course right now, the weather is perfect. The course is in great shape. Guys are going to make a lot of birdies. I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever is kind of right there in the mix tomorrow shoots 10-, 12-, 13-under on the weekend. I think it’s very possible. I know I need to keep the pedal down and try and match that.”
“On the par-5 Number 2, yeah, luckily it was a good number with the wind. I knew I could hit a 3-wood as much as I wanted and it wasn’t going to be too much. It just came out great. Hit another tight draw down there and landed in a perfect spot and had 20 feet down the hill. ”
Lucas Glover (2021): “I wedged it very nice today and putted well, which you have to do here, because you get a lot of opportunities, and distance control is pretty important, and I did a good job of that today and then putted nice. I just like Deere Run. It’s in perfect shape for starters. It’s a fun golf course, and you know barring some crazy conditions, you’re going to get a lot of opportunities. If you’re putting okay you’re going to make some birdies, which is always a good feeling.
Confidence wise, I had a good Sunday last week. I didn’t play well Friday, Saturday, but I had a good Sunday and brought some stuff here from Sunday that were good. Yesterday was a little scrappy, but today everything kind of clicked.”
Dylan Frittelli (2019): “Yeah, that’s huge. I’d obviously won on The European Tour, but my exemption was running out at the end of this year, so I was looking at, if I don’t keep my card here on the U.S. tour, I have to go to Korn Ferry Tour School and play the Playoffs there, and try and get my card back. Then I’m giving up three or four weeks to play in Europe where I can try to keep a card. All this stuff has been going through my mind the last four to eight weeks, and the only thing is you can’t control that stuff. You just have to play golf and try to put it in the background. Last week and the previous week, I played great but let it affect me, and thankfully it weekend I managed to knuckle down and have a really clear mind-set and execute on pretty much every shot on the weekend.”
Michael Kim (2018): You know, I’ve been really comfortable on the course the last couple years, and if you look at kind of the guys that have done well here going back, guys like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, you know, guys that don’t necessarily bomb the ball, but with good wedge game and putting they can do good out here. So kind of along that same mould. Greens are great. They’re soft, they’re rolling true, and they’re bent greens, so you just got to hit it on your line.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2017): “Yeah, you got to be hitting your wedges really close. If you can do that all week, you’ll be just fine. If you can make pars on the tough par-3s and hit it on the fairway, like on 15 every day, land it on the green, two-putt, make your par, get out of there, I think you have a very good chance of playing well here. I have always liked short par 4s. My favourite is No. 9 at Cypress. It’s definitely a cool little short par-4; drivable. A lot of risk/reward in it. I think D.A.’s (Weibring) done a great job with 14, as well as 17. Definitely risk/reward holes that if you execute shots well you’re going to get rewarded. That’s the epitome of golf, right? Executing a shot, having it end up beautifully, even though sometimes you can get a bad break, right? So you could hit a beautiful shot on 14 and get absolutely into the worst place possible. Like if you pull it just a little bit on 14 and get on the down slope in the rough to the short left pin you’re toast. You’ve got to know where to miss it on those holes. I think he’s designed it very, very well.”
Ryan Moore (2016): “It’s a course I’ve really grown to like over the years. I played it early in my career, and I took a few years kind of off in the middle, and when I came back and started playing it again, I don’t know, I appreciated it more for some reason or another. Maybe I’ve learned over the years the type of golf courses that are good for me and that set up well for me, and this is definitely one of them. The golf course has enough angles, and the holes that you can force it down there a little bit farther, they’re pretty difficult tee shots, so guys that hit it significantly farther than me don’t have a huge advantage on a golf course like this.
Yeah, I think that’s part of the success. I enjoy the course. I like bent greens a lot. These are honestly some of the best we putt on every single year, and they’re probably the best I’ve ever seen them this year. They’re fantastic.”
Zach Johnson: “I think starting on 14, you’ve got often times a reachable par 4, a birdie hole, but a hole that if you’re just a little bit off, a bogey hole. 15 is a really good par 4. Obviously 16 assuming it’s one of the signature holes here if not the signature hole, great little par 3. A birdieable, maybe even eagle hole on 17, and then a brutal but fair 18th hole with a lot of opportunity and I would say treachery around the corner. It’s just because of the character of the last five holes here, I think. I don’t want to equate it to another golf course, but I look at I’m not saying we’re going to have seven straight birdies to finish, but if you look at TPC River Highlands, it’s kind of got that sort of ingredient, where you have a reachable par 5, you’ve got a short par 4, a par 3, a lot of water, and just holes that you can either go really, really low or it can really bite you, and I think that’s why you see a little bit of movement and guys just kind of bunching up at the end.”
Steve Stricker: “Winning score? Depends on the weather, I guess. I mean, there’s just a lot of good birdie opportunities out there, par-5s, some of them are reachable. For everybody, two of them are reachable, two out of the three. And there’s a lot of short irons in your hand where you can make some birdies. And then the holes you’ve got to pay attention on, you make your pars and move on. But yeah, it’ll be pushing that 20 number, I’m sure. The greens are pure.”
Incoming Form of John Deere Classic winners since 2019:
- Sepp Straka: 64th Rocket/38th Travelers / MC US Open/16th Memorial.
- J.T. Poston: 2nd Travelers/MC Canadian Open/37th Memorial/MC Colonial.
- Lucas Glover: 41st Rocket/MC Palmetto/37th Memorial/8th Colonial.
- Dylan Frittelli: 46th 3M /46th Rocket /MC Travelers/59th Canadian Open.
- Michael Kim: MC Greenbrier/MC National/MC Travelers/18th St Jude.
- Bryson DeChambeau: 14th Greenbrier/17th National/26th Travelers/MC US Open.
- Ryan Moore: 17th Travelers/70th PGA/46th Open/32nd US Open.
- Jordan Spieth: 1st US Open/3rd Memorial/30th Byron Nelson/2nd Colonial.
- Brian Harman: MC Greenbrier/MC AT&T National/42nd Travelers/6th St Jude.
- Jordan Spieth: 23rd Greenbrier/6th AT&T National/MC US Open/63rd Memorial.
- Zach Johnson: 64th Travelers/41st US Open/MC St Jude/1st Colonial.
- Steve Stricker: 19th US Open/1st Memorial/12th TPC Sawgrass/13th New Orleans.
- Steve Stricker: 58th US Open/17th Memorial/38th Colonial/30th Masters.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2023 – Blixt – AM -9/62 – 275/1.
- 2022 – Poston – AM -9/62 – 60/1.
- 2021 – Hadley/Munoz – Both PM -8/63 – 95/1 & 70/1.
- 2019 – Diaz – PM -9/62 – 150/1.
- 2018 – Wheatcroft – AM -9/62 – 175/1.
- 2017 – Howell III/Schniederjans – AM/PM Split -8/63 – 45/1 & 95/1.
- 2016 – Gillis/Loupe – Both PM -7/64.
- 2015 – Thomas/N Thompson – AM/PM Split -8/63.
- 2014 – Harman/Z Johnson/Sabbatini – All AM -8/63.
- 2013 – Z Johnson / Villegas – Both AM -7/64.
- 2012 – Matteson – PM -10/61.
- 2011 – Blanks – PM -8/63.
- 2010 – Goydos – AM -12/59.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 5 – Jason Day, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth.
- 3 – Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Moore.
- 2 – Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt, Jhonattan Vegas.
- 1 – Daniel Berger, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Dylan Frittelli, Lee Hodges, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Ben Martin, Sean O’Hair, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Davis Riley, Brandt Snedeker, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Brendon Todd, Camilo Villegas, Nick Watney.
Recent winning totals of -16, -20, -26, -22, -20, -19, -22, -20, -22, -18, -27, -21, -19, -21 and -21 highlight that the key to success in Illinois is two-fold: make copious amounts of birdies and minimise dropped shots. It’s not rocket science, but as both 2018 and 2019 highlighted, picking the winner here is not always easy. Picking out Michael Kim in 2018 at 300/1 with form in of MC/MC/MC highlights the volatility we are dealing with at the John Deere Classic with field quality falling year-on-year. 2019 saw Dylan Frittelli capture his maiden PGA Tour victory here at 90/1. His form in read 59-MC-46-46, hardly stellar stuff, but you could have picked him on the basis he had been 9th after 54 holes the week before at the 3M Open, before shooting a Sunday +2/73 and collapsing 37 spots. Fact is this is resort scoring golf and freak results happen as a regular matter of course.
It won’t surprise in a tournament where 4 straight rounds of 66 is the target that streaky scorers dominate the contending positions. Poston, Michael Kim, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson and ‘Mr John Deere’ himself Steve Stricker are all excellent Bentgrass putters, but equally ball-strikers can contend and occasionally win. Sepp Straka, Lucas Glover, Bryson DeChambeau, Sean O’Hair, Jhonattan Vegas, John Senden, Troy Matteson and Kyle Stanley are hardly outstanding when it comes to the flat stick, but excellent close approach play on enough holes can generate the volume of close birdie opportunities required to feature.
Also worthy of note O’Hair, Senden, Harman, DeChambeau, Kim, Frittelli and famously Jordan Spieth were all Tour maiden winners here at the John Deere Classic.
