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Last week was excellent for Golf Betting System. European Tour colleague Paul Williams landed 33/1 (Bjerregaard) and 125/1 (Rai) full each-way places at the BMW International Open. On the PGA Tour we landed Bubba Watson at a rather generous 33/1 and it was nice to see Brian Harman birdie the last to bring home a full each-way payout at 50/1. I know both were popular with readers so congratulations to all who were on board!

We move onto the Quicken Loans National hosted for the second consecutive year at TPC Potomac. Despite having Tiger Woods as its figurehead, the event has struggled to attract the quality of field that both the tournament and course deserves. With the European Tour Rolex Series events in France, Ireland and Scotland dominating the professional schedule pre-Open Championship, ‘Tiger’s National’ event, despite having Invitational status, is floundering a little. However as per every week on the PGA Tour, there’s plenty to play for with Open Championship spots up for grabs for those who haven’t as yet earned exemptions.

Over on the European Tour, Paul Williams previews the Open de France – you can read his thoughts on that event here.

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Course Guide: TPC Potomac hosted Tiger Woods Foundation’s Quicken Loans National for the very first time 12 months ago. Located pretty much opposite its famous neighbour Congressional Country Club, it’s a course with plenty of professional golf tournament history and proved to be a potent addition to the current PGA Tour schedule in 2017. The course has hosted PGA Tour, web.com and a Senior Major Championship over the past 12 years. From 1987 to 2004, plus 2006, this venue hosted the latterly named Booz Allen Classic which was a staple tournament on the PGA Tour. Winners included Lee Janzen (1995), Steve Stricker (1996), Justin Leonard (1997), Stuart Appleby (1998), Rich Beem (1999), Bob Estes (2002), Rory Sabbatini (2003), Adam Scott (2004) and Ben Curtis (2006). Following the 2006 tournament, TPC Potomac underwent a significant renovation to bring the golf course up to today’s professional standards. Never a particularly easy venue, the layout was extended by circa 200 yards and now plays as a Par 70, whilst the small green complexes were converted from Poa Annua to Bentgrass. TPC Potomac certainly showed its teeth last term, ranking as the toughest non-Major on the PGA Tour in 2017.

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms, Maryland: Designer: Ault, Clark & Sneed 1986 with Hardy & Wenzloff (2007) renovations; Course Type: Technical; Par: 70; Length: 7,107 yards; Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Fescue with Kentucky Bluegrass 3.5″; Greens: 4,265 sq.ft average featuring A1/A4 Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 13ft; Course Scoring Average 2013: 69.84 (-0.16), Difficulty Rank 26 of 49 courses. 2012: 72.11 (+2.11), Difficulty Rank 2 of 29 web.com. 2013: 72.63 (+2.63), Rank 1 of 27 web.com courses. 2017: 71.46 (+1.76), Difficulty Rank of 4 of 50 PGA Tour courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Potomac and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 37 yards wide; 275:35; 300:28; 325:28; 350:27.
• Shinnecock Hills: Average 42 yards with 8th hole widest at 64 yards wide.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:35; 300:31; 325:26; 350:30.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.

Course Overview: Post the 2007 renovation we hadn’t seen TPC Potomac on the PGA Tour, so last year was a step into the relative unknown. At 7,107 yards in length, many players might have arrived under the false pretence that this course could be totally overpowered, but that certainly wasn’t the case. It soon became evident that the Par 70, which continually sped up across the 4 days, was the tough course we anticipated. TPC Potomac has only a single reachable par-5 and with 3 of 4 par-3s measuring 190 yards and above, the short holes offer little respite either. Throw in 6 par-4s which measure over 450 yards in length and you can see why this was the venue for the 2010 Constellation Energy Senior Players Championship. Green complexes here feature A1/A4 Bentgrass, whilst at an average of only 4,265 sq.ft, they are particularly small. That’s noteworthy as the metronomic greens in regulation character that Kyle Stanley is captured his 2nd PGA Tour title here by topping the GIR stats for the week. Even Kyle missed 17 greens across his 4 rounds, making it evident that if you want to win around here you very much need to have a scrambling game to make par when you inevitably miss greens.

Winning totals from 12 months ago plus from 2012 and 2013 web.com tournaments held here read -7/273, -8/272 and -7/273, so we’re dealing with a tough venue this week, if conditions allow. That’s hardly a surprise with a Tiger Woods-hosted tournament, with the man himself sure to have the ultimate decision on where his tournament is played. TPC Potomac ranked as tough in most key statistical criteria last year: 6th toughest for Birdie Average, 9th toughest for Greens in Regulation, 5th toughest for Sand Saves, 11th toughest for Proximity to Hole, 6th toughest for Scrambling, 8th toughest for Par Breakers, plus 10th & 3rd toughest for par-4 and par-5 Scoring Average.

A measure of what we should be looking for this week can be seen in the key numbers for Kyle Stanley in victory last year. First in Stokes Gained Off the Tee was more for accuracy rather than distance and he was 4th for Strokes Gained on Approach, driven by being 1st in the field for Greens in Regulation and 6th in the field for Proximity to Hole. A reasonable short game when missing the green was supplanted by an ok week with the flat-stick where he was 26th for Putts per GIR and only 52nd for Stokes Gained Putting.

Winners: (TPC Potomac) 2017: Kyle Stanley (-7); (Congressional) 2016: Billy Hurley III (-17); (RTJ) 2015: Troy Merritt (-18); (Congressional) 2014: Justin Rose (-4); 2013: Bill Haas (-12); 2012: Tiger Woods (-8); (Aronimink) 2011: Nick Watney (-14); 2010: Justin Rose (-10).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari, Kyle Stanley, Joel Dahmen, Byeong-Hun An, Rory Sabbatini, Kevin Streelman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Joaquin Niemann and Marc Leishman.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Valero Texas Open & Trophee Hassan II and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ryan Armour, 2) Brian Gay; 3) Kyle Stanley; 4) Brian Stuard; 5) David Lingmerth; 6) Adam Hadwin; 7) Ted Potter Jnr; 8) Ben Crane; 9) Kevin Streelman / Gary Woodland; 11) J.J. Henry; 12) Francesco Molinari; 13) Sam Ryder / Ben Silverman; 15) Alex Cejka / J.J. Spaun; 17) John Huh / C.T. Pan; 19) Billy Horschel; 20) Andrew Putnam.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Joaquin Niemann; 2) Andrew Putnam; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) C.T. Pan; 5) Kevin Streelman / Gary Woodland; 7) Sam Ryder; 8) Rickie Fowler; 9) Stewart Cink / Francesco Molinari; 11) Fabian Gomez; 12) J.J. Henry; 13) J.T. Poston; 14) Kyle Stanley; 15) Beau Hossler / Keith Mitchell; 17) John Huh / Ted Potter Jnr / Jimmy Walker / Tiger Woods.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Ben Crane; 2) Stephan Jaeger; 3) Si Woo Kim; 4) Jimmy Walker; 5) D.A. Points; 6) Denny McCarthy / Patrick Rodgers; 8) Rickie Fowler / Peter Malnati; 10) Jonas Blixt / Jamie Lovemark; 12) Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Cody Gribble / Brandon Harkins / Nick Watney; 16) Charles Howell III; 17) Zac Blair / Brian Gay / Francesco Molinari / Sam Saunders.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Stanley 45/1; 2016: Hurley III 200/1; 2015: Merritt 350/1; 2014: Rose 16/1; 2013: Haas 40/1; 2012: Woods 11/2; 2011: Watney 14/1; 2010: Rose 30/1. Average: 88/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 153/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind S 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 92. Wind SSW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 91. Wind SSW 10-18 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 93. Wind WSW 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Bethseda, Maryland, is here. 20mm of rain since Tuesday 19th June is undoubtedly more rain than tournament organisers will have wanted. But the real key here is whether it rains (potentially 15mm) on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If so, we should see a similar situation to 12 months ago where scoring is possible across Thursday/Friday before the course starts to firm up significantly. A slight breeze will be a factor on Thursday before it disappears permanently. Temperatures into the mid-30 degrees Celsius will ensure the course dries out as we move into the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the top 4 finishers from last year here at TPC Potomac gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• Kyle Stanley (-7). 304 yards (29th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 31’10” proximity to hole (6th), 52.9 % scrambling (46th), 1.75 putts per GIR (26th).
• Charles Howell III (-7). 298 yards (47th), 53.6% fairways (49th), 68.1% greens in regulation (10th), proximity to hole 30’5″ (1st), 69.6 % scrambling (4th), 1.74 putts per GIR (20th).
• Rickie Fowler (-5). 302 yards (37th), 53.6% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (4th), proximity to hole 35’3″ (35th), 57.1 % scrambling (28th), 1.69 putts per GIR (6th).
• Martin Laird (-5). 307 yards (24th), 57.1% fairways (40th), 61.1% greens in regulation (37th), proximity to hole 35’0″ (32nd), 68.7% scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 34th, Driving Accuracy: 25th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Proximity to Hole: 19th, Scrambling: 24th, Putting Average 14th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Potomac sets-up and what specific skills it requires:

Kyle Stanley (2017): “Yeah it’s really good. One of the more difficult courses I think we have played this year. You have to keep the ball in-front of you, it’s pretty demanding off the tee. If you get a little bit out of position it just creates problems for yourself, so being in the fairway off the tee was something I knew was going to be big this week. And fortunately I drove it pretty well this week.“

David Lingmerth (2017):”Hitting fairways. That’s one of the big keys out here, its a course where the rough is very penalising, really gnarly. As fast and firm as these greens are you really have to stay in the fairway to have a chance of making birdies. Obviously coming here having won on the web.com Tour, design-wise the course is the exact same. Its seems to suit my eye really well. It’s a course that is visually kind of straight forward. It’s easy to pick targets. It’s just a great golf course. You don’t necessarily have to be too aggressive here.“

Michael Putnam: “If you get aggressive on this golf course it’s real easy to make bogeys. There are penalties everywhere. I was aiming towards the middle of the greens having 20 footers for birdie.”

Hudson Swafford: “You’ve got to be patient out here, you can get on a bogey train very quickly. You can’t try to overpower it. Making a par on some holes is good. It’s like a U.S. Open venue. I made a couple of bad swings and made some bad numbers. You miss it in the wrong spot and you’ve got to get it back in play fast. Those were unfortunate errors but I rebounded nicely. The greens are getting firmer and faster and the rough’s not getting any shorter.“

David Lingmerth: “I was really calm all day. You’ve really got to golf your ball out here. The key ingredient this week was that I finally got to make some putts. I knew I wasn’t putting up to my ability this year and I finally found a feeling that I like.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 winners of this event:

• 2017 – Kyle Stanley – Round 1: 32nd, Round 23rd: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Billy Hurley III – Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Troy Merritt – Round 1: 62nd, Round 2: 35th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 83rd, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2013 – Bill Haas: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 30th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2011 – Freddie Jacobson: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 10th, Round 3: 4th.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Kyle Stanley: 57th TPC River Highlands/27th St Jude/6th Memorial/MC Colonial.
• Billy Hurley III: MC US Open/52nd St Jude/41st TPC4S/MC Rex Hospital.
• Troy Merritt: MC Glen Abbey/MC Deere Run/MC Old White TPC/MC TPC River Highlands.
• Justin Rose: 12th US Open/MC Memorial/25th Wentworth/4th TPC Sawgrass.
• Bill Haas: 21st US Open/4th Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass/MC Quail.
• Tiger Woods: 21st US Open/1st Memorial/40th TPC Sawgrass/MC Quail.
• Nick Watney: 13th TPC River Highlands/MC US Open/8th TPC4S/4th TPC Sawgrass.
• Justin Rose: 9th TPC River Highlands/1st Memorial/71st Colonial/10th Wentworth.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Lingmerth – PM -5/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Tiger Woods.
• 2 – Stewart Cink, Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Hunter Mahan, Nick Watney.
• 1 – Jonas Blixt, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Billy Hurley III, Martin Laird, Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, Troy Merritt, Francesco Molinari, Kevin Na, Geoff Ogilvy, Rod Pampling, Ted Potter Jnr, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings, Kyle Stanley, Kevin Streelman.

It’s worth recognising that the Quicken Loans National is a strong prize to capture for plenty in the field this week. Naturally the Ryder Cup looms in the distance and Tiger Woods plus Jimmy Walker will want to be producing results. With a win Walker forces himself into the conversation and Woods will also want to make the likely Captain’s Pick conversations surrounding him very easy between Jim Furyk and his fellow vice captains. Whilst Anthony Kim, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Tiger himself have all used this tournament to catapult themselves into the Ryder Cup / Presidents Cup, the timing of the tournament is also key for players further down the food chain as they can qualify for The Open Championship this week. The Royal & Ancient established Open Qualifying Series will see 4 players, who have not already qualified and who finish in the top 12 at TPC Potomac, secure places in The Open Championship.

This tournament has thrown up some surprise winners in the past couple of renewals. Kyle Stanley hadn’t won on the PGA Tour for over 5 years before taking the title here at TPC Potomac in a play-off with Charles Howell III. If you want to select a play off opponent, CHIII would be high on any player’s list, but Stanley (45/1) took his opportunity on Sunday as it all got too much for the final groups. 350/1 shot Troy Merritt was particularly left-field in 2015, whilst at least local man Billy Hurley III (200/1) had fantastic Congressional course form prior to winning his maiden title in 2016; both bagging 3-year PGA Tour exemptions into the bargain. Prior to that, Justin Rose won this tournament in both 2009 (Aronimink) and 2014 (Congressional). His 2009 win came after his inaugural PGA Tour win at Muirfield Village and a near miss the week before at TPC River Highlands. 2016 had seen him win at 16/1 after a 12th the outing before at Pinehurst Number 2 and 4th at TPC Sawgrass. 2013 saw Bill Haas victorious at Congressional after a missed cut at Merion which had followed a 4th place at Muirfield Village.

TPC Potomac has some hidden course form as we know that the course has hosted both PGA & web.com Tour events in recent times. Players in this week’s field with strong results over and above the 2017 Quicken Loans National held here are detailed below:

• 2013: 2nd Chesson Hadley; 6th Sung Kang; 11th Jason Gore, Si Woo Kim.
• 2012: 1st David Lingmerth; 8th Tom Hoge, Sam Saunders; 13th Brian Stuard.
• 2006: 6th Ben Crane.
• 2004: 2nd Charles Howell III; 3rd Rory Sabbatini; 7th Alex Cejka.
• 2003: 1st Rory Sabbatini.

My selections are as follows: