The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship kicks off the DP World Tour’s 2023 campaign this week, with the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and the Ras al Khaimah Championship following on from this week’s event to complete an early-season Middle-East Swing. Alongside this week’s event, the Dubai Desert Classic has once again been elevated to Rolex Series level as the DP World Tour looks to get 2023 off to a flying start.
With a $9m prize fund and 8,000 Race to Dubai points up for grabs, 9 of the world’s top 50 players are heading to Abu Dhabi this week, most of whom are making their 2023 strokeplay debuts and are no doubt looking for a fast start to the new year.
126 players tee it up here this week, headlined by 2021 Ryder Cup team members Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton who will each be looking to bolster their positions for the 2023 squad as soon as possible. The bookies make Fleetwood and Hatton the marginal favourites at 12/1, with Lowry available at 14/1 at the time of writing.
Beyond the talented trio at the very top of the betting, we have the likes of Seamus Power and Sepp Straka making their Abu Dhabi debuts this week as they too look to work their way onto Luke Donald’s team by banking some of the enhanced points on offer this week. Ryan Fox, who had such a strong 2022, defending champion Thomas Pieters and Alex Noren add further depth to the field here at Yas Links.
Before we go into more detail and my final Abu Dhabi Championship tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, 6,000-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Overview: After 16 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship moved to pastures new last year and we head back for a second look at Yas Links again this year.
Listed as a 7,425 yard Par 72, the course is a typical 36/36 setup with 4 par-5s and 4 par-3s. Sub-400 yard Par-4s followed by mid-length Par-5s open both sets of 9 and should allow players the opportunity to get off to a positive start before the course bites back with some more stringent holes. The 646 yard Par-5 18th is the longest on the course and played as the 5th-toughest hole last year.
Designed by Kyle Phillips (think Kingsbarns, Bernardus Golf and Verdura in Sicily) and opened in 2010, this course falls into the links-style category as all modern imitations do, however with its exposed fairways, fescue and pot bunkers, it certainly does a fair impression of a links, especially when the wind blows. Paspalum grass has been used from tee to green.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Abu Dhabi Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the low70s Fahrenheit are expected, with far lighter winds than 12 months ago the expectation. Thursday looks to be the toughest day wind-wise with 10-15mph forecast, before the breeze tails off over the weekend.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the traditional stats for the top 5 finishers last year at Yas Links gives us a few clues as to what may be required to succeed around these parts:
1st: Thomas Pieters (-10); 317 yards (23rd), 69.6% fairways (10th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 86.7% scrambling (1st), 1.89 putts per GIR (59th)
2nd: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-9); 303 yards (62nd), 50% fairways (67th), 70.9% greens in regulation (45th), 71.4% scrambling (5th), 1.76 putts per GIR (9th)
2nd: Shubhankar Sharma (-9); 301 yards (65th), 55.4% fairways (54th), 75% greens in regulation (20th), 61.1% scrambling (16th), 1.70 putts per GIR (1st)
4th: Victor Dubuisson (-8); 310 yards (46th), 62.5% fairways (31st), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 60% scrambling (23rd), 1.84 putts per GIR (45th)
4th: Viktor Hovland (-8); 318 yards (19th), 55.4% fairways (54th), 80/6% greens in regulation (5th), 64.3% scrambling (12th), 1.82 putts per GIR (25th)
Greens are large here at Yas Links and GIR numbers were really quite consistent across the whole field 12 months ago, despite the wind. With the majority of the field finding between 70-80% of greens in the requisite number, how players performed on and around the greens determined the shape of the final leaderboard.
Of the top 5 finishers, Victor Dubuisson produced the worst Scrambling stats at 23rd in the field; eventual winner Thomas Pieters topped that category which ultimately helped him over the line. Pieters topped GIR too, which meant that he could get away with a relatively poor putting week, however 2nd place finishers Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Shubhankar Sharma ranked 9th and 1st for putting average respectively.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the same 5 players performed as follows:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
The Strokes Gained stats tell a similar story to their traditional counterparts, with Pieters excelling from tee to green and around the green, whereas the two runners-up ranked 3rd and 1st for putting.
Other elements to note from last year’s renewal related to scoring, or lack thereof. Thomas Pieters made just 13 birdies and an eagle over 4 rounds, offset by 5 bogeys, and it was a similar story for the other contenders with just one player in the field reaching 20 or more birdies.
Par-5 scoring, which is often so critical in professional golf, was undoubtedly less important here at Yas Links 12 months ago with Pieters shooting -5 on the long holes on aggregate and none of the top 5 finishers going deeper than -8 for the Par-5s cumulatively. Those who minimised bogeys as much as possible and took the occasional chance gravitated to the upper end of the leaderboard as the tournament progressed.
Incoming Form: All 11 winners listed below had recorded a top-10 finish in their previous 4 starts and that trend can be extended back for all of Kaymer, Casey and DiMarco’s victories also, so a positive form line looks like a good starting point this week, even if that form inevitably extends back to the end of last year:
2022: Thomas Pieters: 35/16/54/MC/18/9/9/39/MC/16/1/15
Event Form. To balance the clear correlation between current form and success in this event over the past 11 years, before Tommy Fleetwood retained his trophy in 2017, the previous 6 winners hadn’t mustered a single top-10 between them in this event prior to victory, so for all of Casey and Kaymer’s domination, a sparkling event history doesn’t look to be an absolute pre-requisite.
That said Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood and Tyrrell Hatton each had a top-4 finish to their name in Abu Dhabi, albeit quite distant, and Thomas Pieters had 3 top-5 finishes at the previous venue before we moved here to Yas Links:
2022: Thomas Pieters: MC/4/2/MC/5/16/30/41
2021: Tyrrell Hatton: 10/6/46/13/15/MC
2020: Lee Westwood: 2/MC/64/17/MC/8/MC/16
2019: Shane Lowry: 4/MC/MC/MC
2018: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC/1
2017: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC
2016: Rickie Fowler: 66
2015: Gary Stal: MC
2014: Pablo Larrazabal: 42/43/11/MC/39
2013: Jamie Donaldson: MC/23/50/21/11/30
2012: Robert Rock: 59/47/MC/MC
In recent years we’ve had one or more single-digit chances in attendance, however with Rory McIlroy keeping his powder dry until next week and others opting to play The American Express over in the States, we don’t have the same dynamic here this time around.
Maybe that’s just as well given that the history of short-priced chances doesn’t read well here: 2013 McIlroy (5/1), Woods (15/2); 2014: McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (8/1); 2015: McIlroy (4/1); 2016: McIlroy (4/1), Spieth (9/2); 2017: Johnson (6/1), Stenson (7/1); 2018: Johnson (5/1), Rose (8/1), McIlroy (8/1); 2019: Dustin Johnson (6/1), Brooks Koepka (9/1), Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2020: Patrick Cantlay (8/1), Brooks Koepka (10/1). Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2021: Rory McIlroy (6/1), Justin Thomas (13/2); 2022: Collin Morikawa (15/2), Rory McIlroy (8/1), Viktor Hovland (10/1) – these well-fancied players all failed to get over the line in Abu Dhabi.
The other consideration of course is that this is a big-money, big-status Rolex Series event. For reference, Rolex Series winners, in chronological order, are as follows: Noren, Fleetwood, Rahm, Cabrera-Bello, Hatton, Rose, Grace, Rahm, Molinari, Olesen, Noren, Knox, Stone, Rose, Westwood, Willett, Lowry, Rahm, Wiesberger, Willett, Wiesberger, Hatton, Fleetwood, Rahm, Westwood, Rai, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Hatton, MinWoo Lee, Horschel, Morikawa. Pieters, Hovland, Schauffele, Lowry and Rahm. Very few surprises in there in the bigger scheme of things.
Last year’s renewal at Yas Links is the only piece of course form we have to go on this week, however with lighter winds forecast I’d expect slightly more forgiving conditions and a lower winning score 12 months on.
The top of the market has Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton splitting opinion with the bookmakers with each of the men favourite with at least one bookmaker at the time of writing, and of the three I’m going to side with latter who offers the slightly better chance of winning this in my view.
6 wins on the DP World Tour read as the Alfred Dunhill Links (2016 & 2017), Italian Open (2017), Turkish Airlines Open (2019), BMW PGA Championship (2020) and this event, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship when hosted at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club in 2021 before it moved here to Yas Links. The eagle-eyed amongst you will note that those last 4 events were all at Rolex Series level – put simply, Tyrrell often cleans up in these types of events, particularly when there’s little to fear ahead of him in the market.
Of course, writing off Fleetwood and Lowry isn’t straightforward and both are quite likely to contend. Tommy returned from a 4th place finish at the CJ Cup on the PGA Tour to win the Nedbank in November, before finishing a creditable 5th at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.
Shane also has more than his fair share of merits on this track – indeed I backed him here last year and he rated as the 54-hole favourite before slumping to a Sunday 77 to finish in a tie for 12th place. A win at Wentworth brought some redemption to me and his many other backers as he capitalised on what was by his own estimation some top form, however he’s been a little lacklustre since and I can pass.
Back to Tyrrell then and his credentials for his are clear to see. Twice a winner on a links and once in Abu Dhabi itself, a pair of top-6 finished at the Open Championship over the years and twice a runner-up at the DP World Tour Championship – including last November – simply adds more fuel to the fire.
The 31 year-old produced impressive Strokes Gained figures of 3rd for Off The Tee, 5th for Approach, 11th for Around The Green, 3rd for Tee to Green 6th for Putting on that last start at the Earth Course, and he closed out his singles match against Mauritius Open winner Antoine Rozner in resounding style with a 5&4 success on Sunday.
Much like last year’s winner Thomas Pieters, Hatton’s knee-jerk reaction when seeing Yas Links wasn’t overly positive, however he managed to finish 6th despite a round of 77 in the Friday wind. 12 months on, with a more encouraging incoming form line and with a calmer forecast, I see Tyrrell as the man to beat. RESULT: T7
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Robert MacIntyre 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Wind the clock back 12 months and Robert MacIntyre was quietly fancied for this event at a backable price, despite a stronger field ahead of him in the market, a new driver in the bag, and no competitive action since the DP World Tour Championship the previous November. He promptly missed the cut.
Since that point in time, the 26 year-old has added a second DP World Tour title to his name – at the Ryder Cup venue in Rome no less – and he now sits in 10th spot in the qualification for Luke Donald’s team after a solid end to 2022, having not missed a cut since the points started to accrue.
Last week’s effort at the Hero Open in front of Captain Donald won’t have hurt the Scot’s chances of a pick if he falls just short in automatic qualification, with a 4&3 win alongside Seamus Power on Friday, a 1-up win alongside Jordan Smith on Saturday morning, and a 5&3 singles win on Sunday over Alex Noren the highlights.
MacIntyre is playing golf with a smile on his face at present and that’s important for a player who can get a little down on himself when things aren’t quite going to plan, Aside from his Italian Open win, 9th at Le Golf National saw him rank 4th for SG Off the Tee and 7th for SG Tee to Green, whereas 9th at Valderrama 3 weeks later saw him top the SG Around The Green stats whilst producing a strong week with his irons.
76th in the OWGR with many of the LIV players continuing to slide down the rankings is also a great opportunity for Bob to get back inside the all-important top 50 before April 2nd which would guarantee him a third successive visit to Augusta National where he’s impressed on his two efforts thus far, finishing 12th and 23rd.
4th at last year’s DP World Tour Championship is strong form in the Middle East and a pair of top-8 finishes at the Open Championship from 3 efforts is enough to suggest he can perform on anything remotely resembling a links track. RESULT: T20
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Like MacIntyre, Victor Perez impressed greatly at last week’s Hero Cup, winning 3.5 points from 4 and looking in strong form in all aspects of his game. A 3&2 victory alongside Guido Migliozzi over Shane Lowry and Seamus Power, a 2&1 success with the same team-mate over Seamus Power and Robert MacIntyre, then a commanding 4&2 win against Jordan Smith in the singles makes the Frenchman a man to follow this week at nearby Yas Links.
His 2 wins on the DP World Tour hold some relevance to this week’s task: 2019 saw the 30 year-old secure his maiden title at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and a second success followed last May when he won the Dutch Open at Bernardus Golf, another Kyle Phillips design with more than a hint of links golf about it. 22-under and 13-under were the two winning totals and although I don’t think we’ll get as deep as the former total this week, I do expect the winner here to surpass Thomas Pieters’ 10-under from 12 months ago, which puts a player like Perez right in the frame.
3rd at the Italian Open behind Bob MacIntyre was Victor’s best result following that aforementioned title at the start of last summer, however 12th at the DP World Tour Championship to close his account for 2022 wasn’t a disaster by any stretch of the imagination and if last week’s Hero Cup is anything to go by then he’s kept himself in great touch over the festive period.
Wider form in the Middle East is also encouraging with 2nd at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club back in 2020, 7th at the Earth Course later that same year and 4th on the Paspalum greens at the Saudi International the following February, and I really like his chances here this week despite finishing a lowly 58th on course debut 12 months ago. RESULT: Winner
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Having finally got the monkey off of his back last May by winning the Catalunya Championship, many expected – me included – that Adri Arnaus would push on quickly from there and start to realise his undoubted potential.
2 play-off defeats had preceded that win and it took all of 6 extra holes to finally shake off Oliver Bekker in Spain, however having had more than enough time to come to terms with his status as a DP World Tour winner, perhaps he’ll make a strong start to 2023 as he has done in previous years and seriously contend here.
3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic back in 2020 is useful January form and he kicked off his 2021 campaign with a 12th place finish in this event at the previous venue, before finishing 9th in Dubai once again. 20th here at Yas Links was notable as he closed with a round of 65 which nobody in the field could beat, and he followed that up a fortnight later with a 3rd place finish in classy company on the Paspalum greens at the Saudi International where he ranked 2nd for putting average.
Talking of putting, that’s the single most improved part of the Barcelona man’s game over the past couple of seasons and when he puts that new found strength together with his previously excellent long game, he’s a force to be reckoned with on any course.
9th at the DP World Tour Championship was the last time that we saw the 28 year-old in action, hitting 82% of greens in regulation (2nd in the field) and ranking inside the top dozen in the field for SG Approach, SG Tee to Green and SG Putting. Despite its Rolex status, this week’s field isn’t the same strength as that effort and he could easily reward each-way backers or better here this week. RESULT: MC
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Matthew Southgate 1pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Long-time readers of my DP World Tour musings will probably be expecting Matthew Southgate to appear in this week’s team. It’s fair to say that I’ve virtually followed the Englishman over a cliff on these links or links-style set-ups over the years, and although he’s yet to convert one of his opportunities on Tour, I still maintain that this is the kind of venue where the door could finally open.
2nd at Portstewart in 2018 and 2nd again at the Dunhill Links in 2019 are the closest that the 34 year-old has come to getting over the line at this level over the years on similar terrain, however it’s his 12th and 6th place finishes at the 2016 and 2017 Open Championships which stick out the most on his record against elite fields, and when everything clicks Matt is outstanding on this kind of course.
I backed him here last year more in hope than expectation given that he’d not seen competition action since the previous October. 42nd was a reasonably effort given that he was undoubtedly rusty, however this time around he’s much fresher having played deep into December, rounding off the year with a 26th place finish at Leopard Creek and 14th on his last start at the Mauritius Open.
1st for SG Approach on that final effort of the year followed 7th the week before on the same metric; 7th and 6th for SG Tee to Green over the same two weeks also encourages on this week’s track given the numbers that eventual winner Thomas Pieters produced here 12 months ago.
The putter will need to be a little warmer than the back end of 2022 if he’s going to stand a chance of winning here this week, however he was Strokes Gained positive on that count here last year and we’ve seen him putt well on Paspalum greens before, most notably at the 2021 Saudi International where he ranked 6th for SG Putting in a stellar field. RESULT: MC
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2023 Majors Competition Sponsored By bet365:
