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After a week’s break for the DP World Tour’s leading players to take a slight breather, we’re back for the final two events of the 2024 season and the inaugural DP World Tour Play-Offs.
With the Nedbank Golf Challenge – which had been the short field-warm up for the DP World Tour Championship for the past few years – pushed back into the low-key December series of events, the Abu Dhabi Championship adopts a new place in the schedule having previously been part of the early-season Middle East swing.
With a $9m prize fund and 9,000 Race to Dubai points up for grabs, 9 of the world’s top 50 players are heading to Abu Dhabi for this week’s Rolex Series event, with the top 50 in the rankings then moving on to the Earth Course in Dubai for next week’s finale.
70 players tee it up here this week, headed by Rory McIlroy at around 9/2 who holds a lead of over 1,500 ranking points heading into the final two events and would need two fairly disastrous weeks by his high standards not to be crowned as the DP World Tour’s top player for the fifth time. Dunhill Links winner Tyrrell Hatton rates as a 6/1 shot generally to win the Abu Dhabi Championship, with Tommy Fleetwood 8/1.
With Billy Horschel (4th), Ludvig Aberg (16th) and Jon Rahm (34th) the most notable absentees, there’s nevertheless an excellent supporting cast this week including Joaquin Niemann, Shane Lowry, MinWoo Lee and Robert Macintyre to name but a few.
Before we go into more detail and my final Abu Dhabi Championship tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year reaches its conclusion. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, 6,400-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Overview: After 16 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship moved to pastures new in 2022 and we head back for a third look at Yas Links again this year.
Listed as a 7,425 yard Par 72, the course is a typical 36/36 setup with 4 par-5s and 4 par-3s. Sub-400 yard Par-4s followed by mid-length Par-5s open both sets of 9 and allow players the opportunity to get off to a positive start before the course bites back with some more stringent holes. The 646 yard Par-5 18th is the longest on the course but still played as the fourth easiest hole last year, with the other Par-5s ranking as the three ahead of it on that count.
Designed by Kyle Phillips (think Kingsbarns, Bernardus Golf and Verdura in Sicily) and opened in 2010, this course falls into the links-style category as all modern imitations do, however with its exposed fairways, fescue and pot bunkers, it certainly does a fair impression of a links, especially when the wind blows. Paspalum grass has been used from tee to green.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Abu Dhabi Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high 80s Fahrenheit are expected, with light winds peaking around 10-15mph in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the traditional stats for our two winners here at Yas Links gives us a few clues as to what may be required to succeed around these parts:
2023: Victor Perez (-18); 319 yards (4th), 71.4% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (20th), 61.5% scrambling (19th), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd)
2022: Thomas Pieters (-10); 317 yards (23rd), 69.6% fairways (10th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 86.7% scrambling (1st), 1.89 putts per GIR (59th)
Greens are large here at Yas Links and GIR numbers were really quite consistent across the whole field on both renewals, with the overall level down in 2022 compared to 2023 due to windier conditions. With the majority of the field finding between 70-80% of greens in the requisite number, how players performed on and around the greens determined the shape of the final leaderboard.
In calmer conditions last year, putting statistics came to the fore with eventual winner Victor Perez ranking 2nd for putting when finding the green in the requisite number; Sebastian Soderberg, who tied for second place, topped that statistic and the top 6 finishers all ranked 17th or better for that metric.
2022 was trickier as I mentioned – the winning score at 10-under par was a full 8 strokes worse than last year – and Thomas Pieters navigated to victory through the strongest scrambling performance on show, getting up and down 86.7% of the time and making just 5 bogeys overall on the week. This week promises to be much calmer than 2022 and I suspect last year will be a better proxy for our winner in that respect.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the same two players performed as follows:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
The Strokes Gained stats tell a similar story to their traditional counterparts, with both men excelling from tee to green and around the green. Perez putted better as we’ve already ascertained from the traditional statistics, however perhaps the most consistent statistic was SG Off the Tee with both of our winners ranking inside the top 3 on the week.
Other elements to note from the two renewals relates to Par 5 scoring, with the requirement to make birdies and eagles on the long holes far more important in last year’s calmer conditions than the year before. Indeed the closing hole in 2022 played as the fifth toughest on the week, whereas last year it was the fourth easiest. Again I’d lean towards last year as the better indicator for likely success this time around.
Incoming Form: All 12 winners of the Abu Dhabi Championship listed below had recorded a top-12 finish in one of their previous 4 starts and that trend can be extended back for all of Kaymer, Casey and DiMarco’s victories also, so a positive form line looks like a good starting point this week.
2023: Victor Perez: 53/MC/34/23/MC/50/3/30/36/MC/44/12
2022: Thomas Pieters: 35/16/54/MC/18/9/9/39/MC/16/1/15
Event Form. To balance the clear correlation between current form and success in this event over the past 12 years, before Tommy Fleetwood retained his trophy in 2017 the previous 6 winners hadn’t mustered a single top-10 between them in this event prior to victory, so for all of Casey and Kaymer’s domination, a sparkling event history doesn’t look to be an absolute pre-requisite.
That said Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Victor Perez each had a top-4 finish to their name in Abu Dhabi, albeit quite distant, and Thomas Pieters had 3 top-5 finishes at the previous venue before we moved here to Yas Links:
2023: Victor Perez: 54/2/46/58
2022: Thomas Pieters: MC/4/2/MC/5/16/30/41
2021: Tyrrell Hatton: 10/6/46/13/15/MC
2020: Lee Westwood: 2/MC/64/17/MC/8/MC/16
2019: Shane Lowry: 4/MC/MC/MC
2018: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC/1
2017: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC
2016: Rickie Fowler: 66
2015: Gary Stal: MC
2014: Pablo Larrazabal: 42/43/11/MC/39
2013: Jamie Donaldson: MC/23/50/21/11/30
2012: Robert Rock: 59/47/MC/MC
One final point of note is that the history of short-priced chances doesn’t read well here: 2013 McIlroy (5/1), Woods (15/2); 2014: McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (8/1); 2015: McIlroy (4/1); 2016: McIlroy (4/1), Spieth (9/2); 2017: Johnson (6/1), Stenson (7/1); 2018: Johnson (5/1), Rose (8/1), McIlroy (8/1); 2019: Dustin Johnson (6/1), Brooks Koepka (9/1), Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2020: Patrick Cantlay (8/1), Brooks Koepka (10/1). Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2021: Rory McIlroy (6/1), Justin Thomas (13/2); 2022: Collin Morikawa (15/2), Rory McIlroy (8/1), Viktor Hovland (10/1); 2023: Tyrrell Hatton (11/1), Tommy Fleetwood (11/1) – these well-fancied players all failed to get over the line in Abu Dhabi.
My final Abu Dhabi Championship tips are as follows:
Nicolai Hojgaard 2pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
History hasn’t been kind to the short-priced favourites at the Abu Dhabi Championship over the years as I’ve articulated in the preamble, and with Rory’s lead at the top of the Race to Dubai ranking such that he doesn’t need to excessively attack, and those chasing him having a nigh-on impossible task, I wonder if that opens to the door to the next tier or two of players in the betting to win this week.
If the likes of McIlroy, Hatton and Fleetwood are to be beaten then it may take the special kind of talent that Nicolai Hojgaard possesses to pip the market principals to the title. Last year’s DP World Tour Championship victory proved that he’s quite capable of taking on and beating Europe’s best, and with a largely disappointing – and winless to date – season almost behind him, perhaps the prospect of doing the same again this week will whet his appetite.
What is clear is that the 23 year-old desperately wants to be part of next week’s DP World Tour Championship and to be afforded the opportunity to defend his title against the European elite. It took a trip to South Korea last time out where he finished 9th to move him inside the Race to Dubai top 70 and earn him a start here this week, and from 67th in the rankings a similar scenario presents itself here this week with a lofty finished required before he can book his flight over to Dubai.
Motivation to succeed will undoubtedly be high given his situation this week and that can only be enhanced by the fact that at 55th in the OWGR he’s just one good week away from securing a top 50 position for year end and all the benefits that brings, not least an invitation to Augusta National next year. 16th this year on his Masters debut was impressive and excruciating at the same time as the Dane finished 1 shot outside of 12th place which would have automatically earned him an invite for 2025.
Then there’s the sibling rivalry to consider. His twin brother will be joining Nicolai on the PGA Tour next year, however with his Irish Open victory in September Rasmus now moved 2 DP World Tour victories clear of his brother at 5 titles to 3 – that’s sure to provide some impetus.
10th here at Yas Links the last time we visited is the icing on the cake for me. 1st for SG Tee to Green and 2nd for SG Off the Tee were let down by a stone cold putter on the week, yet having gained nearly a stroke per day with the flat stick last time out in Korea perhaps he’ll put that right this time around.
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Thorbjorn Olesen 2pts EW 25/1 (7EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Whilst I’m most excited about the chances of Nicolai Hojgaard this week, should he not be able to muster a winning week then perhaps keeping faith in Thorbjorn Olesen to pick up the pieces is the most prudent option.
I last backed Thunderbear at the French Open 4 weeks ago where he seriously contended all week without having the breaks of winner Dan Bradbury to eventually finish in a tie for 2nd place, as he looked to secure a second DP World Tour win of the season with a largely disappointing stint on the PGA Tour wedged in between.
Disappointing for him and for us, but to his credit he still managed to follow that effort up with a 7th place finish at the Andalucia Masters the week after to now sit in 18th place on the Race to Dubai as he looks for a second bite of the cherry.
42nd and 20th here from his two attempts at Yas Links shows progression and he’s already tasted success in the Middle East this season with that aforementioned victory which came at the Ras al Khaimah Championship back in February following a similarly impressive run of form to the 12th (Irish Open), 12th Dunhill Links, 2nd (France) and 7th (Korea) that he’s on right now, with a missed cut at Wentworth the only exception to that.
Victory at the 2015 Dunhill Links correlates nicely with Victor Perez who won the 2019 edition at the Home of Golf before winning here last year, and 5th for Par 5 Scoring for the season ticks a crucial box this week, as does 2nd for SG Putting in what’s likely to be a similar scoring week to last year.
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Jesper Svensson 1pt EW 90/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet
With the wind unlikely to be a feature this week, a long hitter with the ability to putt could be just the ticket and Jesper Svensson fits the bill on both counts.
It’s been a breakthrough season for the Swede having graduated to the DP World Tour courtesy of a strong 2023 on the Challenge Tour where he won the B-NL Challenge Trophy and recorded three further runner-up finishes. 2nd at the South African Open and 2nd again at the Bahrain Championship signalled his intent at the top level of European golf and he duly obliged in March, winning the Singapore Open in a play-off over Kiradech Aphibarnrat following a sublime closing round of 63.
Impressive stuff and the 28 year-old has gone on to finish 2nd in Prague and 5th at The Belfry to all but guarantee a PGA Tour card for next season. Form of MC/MC/54/27/50 since that effort at the British Masters explains his price to a degree, however you don’t need to scratch too far below the surface to see that his penultimate effort, 27th at Le Golf National, saw him lead into the final day before being derailed with a closing 76.
With no course form, nor any event form, we’re relying on specification only to assess Jesper’s chances this week, however with average drives of 318 yards this season he sits 7th on Tour for Driving Distance, and at 38th on Tour for both SG Putting and Putts per GIR he’s got enough prowess on the greens to feature here on debut in my view. Back that up with 16th for Par 5 Scoring and 33rd for SG Off the Tee and we have a player well capable of competing here, especially when you consider that he gained over 7 strokes putting on the Paspalum greens of Bahrain back in February.
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Daniel Brown 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Finally let’s take another chance on Daniel Brown who’s still underrated by the bookmakers despite having recorded two top-4 finishes in his last five starts and is returning to something resembling the links terrain that we’ve seen him overperform on this season.
4th at St Francis Links back in March at the SDC Championship was a clue that he was backable on the right type of course, and he went on to prove that at The Open by contending throughout and eventually recording a creditable 10th place finish on his Major debut. 4th at the Irish Open when carrying our each-way money was also impressive against a decent enough field and he finished 3rd last time out at the Andalucia Masters on a track that offered a bit of width off the tee and where the sea was in pretty close proximity.
That last effort may be stretching things a little but shows that he’s playing good enough golf to contend here nevertheless on course and event debut. 1st for SG Tee to Green, 8th for SG Off the Tee, 5th for SG Approach and 7th for SG Around the Green were eye-opening stats last time out for the Northallerton man.
Dan turned 30 last month, a milestone that can often galvanise a professional golfer in much the same way that becoming a father can, and with a second successive appearance at next week’s DP World Tour Championship all but confirmed he could surprise a few this week with a pressure-free contending performance.
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