Course Overview: After 16 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship moved to pastures new in 2022 and we head back for a third look at Yas Links again this year.
Listed as a 7,425 yard Par 72, the course is a typical 36/36 setup with 4 par-5s and 4 par-3s. Sub-400 yard Par-4s followed by mid-length Par-5s open both sets of 9 and allow players the opportunity to get off to a positive start before the course bites back with some more stringent holes. The 646 yard Par-5 18th is the longest on the course but still played as the fourth easiest hole last year, with the other Par-5s ranking as the three ahead of it on that count.
Designed by Kyle Phillips (think Kingsbarns, Bernardus Golf and Verdura in Sicily) and opened in 2010, this course falls into the links-style category as all modern imitations do, however with its exposed fairways, fescue and pot bunkers, it certainly does a fair impression of a links, especially when the wind blows. Paspalum grass has been used from tee to green.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Abu Dhabi Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
As noted above, the event moved to its current venue in 2022 so event history needs to be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form/Event Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2023: Victor Perez, 55/1; 2022: Thomas Pieters, 40/1; 2021: Tyrrell Hatton, 12/1; 2020: Lee Westwood, 90/1; 2019: Shane Lowry, 60/1; 2018: Tommy Fleetwood, 20/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 60/1; 2016: Rickie Fowler, 16/1; 2015: Gary Stal, 150/1; 2014: Pablo Larrazabal, 125/1; 2013: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2012: Robert Rock, 150/1; 2011: Martin Kaymer, 8/1, 2010: Martin Kaymer, 14/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Abu Dhabi region is here.
Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high 80s Fahrenheit are expected, with light winds peaking around 10-15mph in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the traditional stats for our two winners here at Yas Links gives us a few clues as to what may be required to succeed around these parts:
- 2023: Victor Perez (-18); 319 yards (4th), 71.4% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (20th), 61.5% scrambling (19th), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd)
- 2022: Thomas Pieters (-10); 317 yards (23rd), 69.6% fairways (10th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 86.7% scrambling (1st), 1.89 putts per GIR (59th)
Greens are large here at Yas Links and GIR numbers were really quite consistent across the whole field on both renewals, with the overall level down in 2022 compared to 2023 due to windier conditions. With the majority of the field finding between 70-80% of greens in the requisite number, how players performed on and around the greens determined the shape of the final leaderboard.
In calmer conditions last year, putting statistics came to the fore with eventual winner Victor Perez ranking 2nd for putting when finding the green in the requisite number; Sebastian Soderberg, who tied for second place, topped that statistic and the top 6 finishers all ranked 17th or better for that metric.
2022 was trickier as I mentioned – the winning score at 10-under par was a full 8 strokes worse than last year – and Thomas Pieters navigated to victory through the strongest scrambling performance on show, getting up and down 86.7% of the time and making just 5 bogeys overall on the week. This week promises to be much calmer than 2022 and I suspect last year will be a better proxy for our winner in that respect.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the same two players performed as follows:
- 2023: Victor Perez: T: 3rd; A: 48th; T2G: 11th; ATG: 3rd; P: 5th
- 2022: Thomas Pieters: T: 2nd; A: 23rd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 12th; P: 30th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
The Strokes Gained stats tell a similar story to their traditional counterparts, with both men excelling from tee to green and around the green. Perez putted better as we’ve already ascertained from the traditional statistics, however perhaps the most consistent statistic was SG Off the Tee with both of our winners ranking inside the top 3 on the week.
Other elements to note from the two renewals relates to Par 5 scoring, with the requirement to make birdies and eagles on the long holes far more important in last year’s calmer conditions than the year before. Indeed the closing hole in 2022 played as the fifth toughest on the week, whereas last year it was the fourth easiest. Again I’d lean towards last year as the better indicator for likely success this time around.
Incoming Form: All 12 winners of the Abu Dhabi Championship listed below had recorded a top-12 finish in one of their previous 4 starts and that trend can be extended back for all of Kaymer, Casey and DiMarco’s victories also, so a positive form line looks like a good starting point this week.
- 2023: Victor Perez: 53/MC/34/23/MC/50/3/30/36/MC/44/12
- 2022: Thomas Pieters: 35/16/54/MC/18/9/9/39/MC/16/1/15
- 2021: Tyrrell Hatton: MC/25/16/5/MC/1/3/28/7/MC/23/8
- 2020: Lee Westwood: 55/4/MC/28/MC/MC/MC/60/56/10/6/38
- 2019: Shane Lowry: MC/12/15/12/MC/6/MC/34/2/14/35/30
- 2018: Tommy Fleetwood: 27/28/61/MC/25/6/20/23/10/21/6/3
- 2017: Tommy Fleetwood: 16/49/10/7/13/15/4/37/22/14/9/3
- 2016: Rickie Fowler: 30/2/10/30/MC/1/4/12/25/17/3/5
- 2015: Gary Stal: 18/51/70/39/MC/66/19/32/33/23/MC/5
- 2014: Pablo Larrazabal: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/9/17/8/5/53/26/MC
- 2013: Jamie Donaldson: 60/36/7/50/9/21/MC/6/16/42/9/16
- 2012: Robert Rock: MC/MC/25/MC/70/28/33/38/8/9/12
Event Form. To balance the clear correlation between current form and success in this event over the past 12 years, before Tommy Fleetwood retained his trophy in 2017 the previous 6 winners hadn’t mustered a single top-10 between them in this event prior to victory, so for all of Casey and Kaymer’s domination, a sparkling event history doesn’t look to be an absolute pre-requisite.
That said Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Victor Perez each had a top-4 finish to their name in Abu Dhabi, albeit quite distant, and Thomas Pieters had 3 top-5 finishes at the previous venue before we moved here to Yas Links:
- 2023: Victor Perez: 54/2/46/58
- 2022: Thomas Pieters: MC/4/2/MC/5/16/30/41
- 2021: Tyrrell Hatton: 10/6/46/13/15/MC
- 2020: Lee Westwood: 2/MC/64/17/MC/8/MC/16
- 2019: Shane Lowry: 4/MC/MC/MC
- 2018: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC/1
- 2017: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC
- 2016: Rickie Fowler: 66
- 2015: Gary Stal: MC
- 2014: Pablo Larrazabal: 42/43/11/MC/39
- 2013: Jamie Donaldson: MC/23/50/21/11/30
- 2012: Robert Rock: 59/47/MC/MC
One final point of note is that the history of short-priced chances doesn’t read well here: 2013 McIlroy (5/1), Woods (15/2); 2014: McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (8/1); 2015: McIlroy (4/1); 2016: McIlroy (4/1), Spieth (9/2); 2017: Johnson (6/1), Stenson (7/1); 2018: Johnson (5/1), Rose (8/1), McIlroy (8/1); 2019: Dustin Johnson (6/1), Brooks Koepka (9/1), Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2020: Patrick Cantlay (8/1), Brooks Koepka (10/1). Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2021: Rory McIlroy (6/1), Justin Thomas (13/2); 2022: Collin Morikawa (15/2), Rory McIlroy (8/1), Viktor Hovland (10/1); 2023: Tyrrell Hatton (11/1), Tommy Fleetwood (11/1) – these well-fancied players all failed to get over the line in Abu Dhabi.