A thrilling BMW PGA Championship saw Billy Horschel win a second title at Wentworth in a 3-man play-off over Rory Mcilroy and Thriston Lawrence. Birdies at 17 and 18 before birdie then eagle in the play-off saw the American home, however his extra-time opponents will be ruing not having made birdie on the 72nd hole in regulation which give Billy the opportunity. Shane Lowry started and finished well for us, however a couple of flat rounds on Friday and Saturday left him in betting no man’s land in a tie for 12th place.
We head to Spain this week for the first of two events in the country on the DP World Tour’s ‘Back 9’ which will also take us back to Andalucia next month after we get the ball rolling this week in the capital, Madrid. Club de Campo is the venue this week, a club that hosted the Spanish Open 5 times in the 1990s with Rodger Davis, Eduardo Romero, Colin Montgomerie, Seve Ballesteros and Padraig Harrington all running out winners.
More recently, the Madrid track hosted the Turespana Masters in 2000, Open de Madrid 2001-05 and the Madrid Masters in 2008, with Padraig Harrington (again), Retief Goosen, Steen Tinning, Ricardo Gonzalez, Richard Sterne, Raphael Jacquelin and Charl Schwartzel taking home the trophies. After some significant updates since 2008, this event was hosted here in 2019 with Jon Rahm running out a 5-stroke winner, in 2021 when Rafa Cabrera-Bello once again delighted the home crowd, in 2022 when Jon Rahm lapped the field again, this time by 6 shots, and last year when Matthieu Pavon broke his DP World Tour maiden.
With the increasingly damaging and divisive politics of the men’s game overshadowing the lead up to this week, Jon Rahm has been permitted to play, as have a number of his LIV colleagues, and it’s Rahm who has inevitably been made the short-priced favourite to win this week with 7/2 the best price on offer at the time of writing. Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood following in the betting at 8/1, with Shane Lowry and Aaron Rai at 12/1 and 16/1 respectively in what’s a very strong renewal of this event.
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Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Spain. Designer: Javier Arana, 1956, with Manuel Pinero updates; Course Type: Tree-lined, Resort; Par: 71; Length: 7,154 yards; Fairways: Bermuda/Rye/Bent; Rough: Bermuda/Rye/Bent; Greens: Bentgrass/Poa.
Course Overview. The Club de Campo course is a 7,154 yard, par 71 designed by Javier Arana with subsequent modifications by Manuel Pinero.
Since it was used for the Madrid Masters in 2008, the layout was extended by 162 yards ahead of the 2019 Spanish Open with new tee boxes on around half of the holes to offer it a little protection against the modern golfer, however with winning scores of -19, -23 and -18 the last 3 times it was used before the renovation, and -19 to -25 in the four renewals since, birdies and eagles are still the order of the day.
An undulating, tree-lined course with relatively generous fairways, the main protection for the course is on and around the small bent/poa greens which are multi-tiered and reasonably tricky. Par-5s at the 4th, 7th and 14th measure 526, 564 and 536 yards respectively and all present eagle opportunities for those players who can find the fairway from off the tee.
The extended par-4 1st hole proved tricky last time we visited these parts as you’d expect from a 505-yard par-4, ranking the toughest hole on the course, however for the most part the holes are fairly straightforward in good golfing conditions.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open de Espana that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2023: Matthieu Pavon, 90/1; 2022: Jon Rahm, 5/2; 2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 55/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 10/3; 2018: Jon Rahm, 4/1; 2016: Andrew Johnston, 100/1; 2015: James Morrison, 225/1; 2014: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 22/1; 2013: Raphael Jacquelin, 55/1; 2012: Francesco Molinari, 16/1; 2011: Thomas Aiken, 45/1; 2010: Alvaro Quiros, 18/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Madrid is here.
A windy start to the tournament on Thursday – with an average 20mph gusting above 30mph at times – will slowly improve as the tournament progresses with the breeze almost completely dropping away by Sunday. Despite being largely sunny, temperatures will struggle to reach much beyond 70 Fahrenheit after some chilly mornings for the time of the year over in Spain.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the final stats from the winners since 2019 gives us an idea of the skill-set required for this week’s test:
2023: Matthieu Pavon (-23). 309 yards (20th), 55.4% fairways (20th), 69.5% greens in regulation (28th), 86.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.60 putts per GIR (4th).
2022: Jon Rahm (-25). 337 yards (2nd), 53.6% fairways (27th), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.53 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-19). 296 yards (52nd), 58.9% fairways (20th), 70.8% greens in regulation (25th), 85.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (22nd).
2019: Jon Rahm. (-22). 316 yards (1st), 78.6% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 78.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
Prior to that, although this course hadn’t hosted the Spanish Open since 1996, we do have some tangible stats from the Madrid Masters and Open de Madrid held here:
2008, Charl Schwartzel (-19). 296 yards (21st), 66.1% fairways (10th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 71.4% scrambling (6th), 1.76 putts per GIR (20th).
2005, Raphael Jacquelin (-23). 293 yards (10th), 80.4% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (34th), 81.0% scrambling (10th), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
2004, Richard Sterne (-18). 306 yards (2nd), 58.9% fairways (61st), 73.6% greens in regulation (22nd), 73.7% scrambling (14th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th).
Making eagles and birdies is the key component this week whilst keeping cards as clean as possible, however it’s on and around the greens where this event is likely to be won. Each of the winners listed ranked inside the top-14 for scrambling and that trend continues for most of the players who finished in the each-way positions for the 4 most recent renewals in particular.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the four renewals held here, with eventual winners Jon Rahm and Rafa Cabrera-Bello ranking 1st, 1st and 3rd respectively, however SG Around the Green and SG Putting are also prominent too:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Looking at the Spanish Open since 2010 at its various different venues, the incoming form of all eventual winners is solid for the most part.
Each player had recorded a top-20 finish or better in one of their previous 7 starts, however only Miguel Angel Jimenez, Jon Rahm (2018 & 2022) and Matthieu Pavon last year came into the week with any immediate sparkling form.
Rahm’s successful defence in 2019 came off the back of a missed cut, although prior to that his form was strong and in 2022 he’d narrowly missed out at Wentworth on his previous outing:
Event Form. The nomadic nature of the Spanish Open renders much of the event form as background information only rather than anything tangible, especially seeing as the tracks vary quite considerably in style from year to year.
Prior to Jon Rahm winning in 2018, all other winners since 2010 had played at least one Spanish Open in the past, however their results in the event had been pretty varied to say the least. Matthieu Pavon was Rahm’s closest challenger in 2022 and he went one better last year to secure his maiden DP World Tour title:
A scoreable, tree-lined test should produce low-scoring once Thursday’s winds have passed, and those players who can make eagles and birdies whilst keeping their card clean with a smart short game should be favoured.
With Jon Rahm’s appeal against sanctions and fines successfully lodged ahead of this year’s Spanish Open, he’s been permitted to play in his home Open and once again he’s the clearest of favourites to win a fourth Open de Espana title – and what would be a third success here at Club de Campo.
A 5-shot victory here in Madrid on course debut back in 2019 came at a price of 100/30; he bettered that result in 2022 by a shot, beating Matthieu Pavon by 6 and returning a 5/2 win for those punters who just shrugged their shoulders and took the price on offer. 7/2 this year reflects the fact that Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood are in the field – as are Shane Lowry and Aaron Rai amongst others – however none of this detracts from the fact that Rahm is the man to beat and could quite reasonably clean up once again.
His LIV results have improved enough for any counter-argument of current form to be used against him this week, so to justify swerving him this week we need another reason. Any animosity that’s been evident since moving to LIV in this year’s Majors will likely be less of an issue on home soil and on a course where he’s excelled in the past, and with the Ryder Cup qualification the catalysts for his desire to fulfil his playing obligations on the DP World Tour as soon as possible, his motivation to succeed will be sky high I’m sure.
The fly in the ointment this week could be the weather, and with 20-30mph winds forecast on Thursday on what’s otherwise a very scoreable track, any falling from off the pace could make the rest of the tournament an uphill struggle. When Rahm has won here it’s been courtesy of 22- and 25-under totals in pretty perfect conditions and if things start to unravel just a little in the breeze then maybe he’ll prove to be beatable.
Of course then the question is as to who can actually beat the former world number 1. Tyrrell Hatton lost out to Rahm at LIV Golf UK by a stroke at the end of July and fell away badly on his last DP World Tour start at The Belfry, whereas Tommy Fleetwood still doesn’t win enough for me to justify the same 8/1 price point at his compatriot. Shane Lowry is looking increasingly jaded after a tough stretch of golf and Aaron Rai will need to pick himself up quickly after relinquishing a strong position on Sunday at Wentworth.
With Ryder Cup qualification firmly in focus with Rahm’s inclusion this week, my preference is to support Matt Wallace as he looks to build on what’s been an impressive start to his own personal crusade to make Luke Donald’s team for Bethpage next year.
Victory at Crans-sur-Sierre a fortnight ago was the Englishman’s fifth success on the DP World Tour having also broken through on the PGA Tour last year at the Corales Championship. With a week off preceding his 12th place effort at Wentworth he could be ready to make it a quick-fire double and establish himself at the top of the embryonic Team Europe rankings with Rory Mcilroy and Rasmus Hojgaard not in action this week.
We’ve seen from Matt that when he’s on top form he can churn out victories in quick succession: between March and September in 2018 he won three times at this level, plus before that in 2016 he recorded a massive six victories in just eight months on the Alps Tour, including three in the space of four weeks at one stage. Matt can undoubtedly hold his form once he finds it.
Last week’s 12th place finish at Wentworth was a personal best there and he signed off with a flawless round of 64 where he hit more greens than anyone in the field to tie the low round of the day, giving him real momentum coming into this week.
A tricky Thursday here may play into the hands of Wallace who battled so admirably when conditions were tough in the Swiss Alps, and with his putter behaving right now he could give Rahm a real scare on his course debut this week in my view.
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Matteo Manassero 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Of the players at the upper end of the betting market, I’m going to take a chance that Matteo Manassero can prise the positives out of last week’s performance at Wentworth – of which there were many – and push on this week in Spain as he continues his career renaissance.
11 years after winning the BMW PGA Championship for what was at the time and still is his biggest career victory, a sublime Saturday round of 63 gave the 31 year-old a 3-shot buffer heading into Sunday as he looked to repeat the feat. A disappointing 73 followed as the pressure cranked up, however 4th place overall followed hot on the heels 3rd at the Irish Open the week before, and it’s clear that the Italian is playing some outstanding golf right now with the flat stick firing very nicely, having ranked 2nd and 5th for SG Putting over the past fortnight.
10th at the Italian Open, 7th at the KLM Open and 6th at the British Masters have all followed Mannasero’s Jonsson Workwear Open victory in March and this scoreable, relatively short course should once again be right up the Italian’s alley.
A missed cut here in 2019 is his only course form to go on, although an opening round of 68 was significantly more promising than most of his play in what was a dire year for him back then with his game in tatters. Wider Spanish form is strong though with a victory at the 2010 Castello Masters, 7th in this event back in 2012 in Seville, and six top-20 finishes from his last seven starts on Spanish soil at all levels.
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Shubhankar Sharma 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
A rare missed cut for Shubhankar Sharma last week at Wentworth may have given the Indian star the opportunity to regroup over the weekend and come back fighting this week on a Spanish course where he’s done well in the past.
12 successive weekends made preceded last week’s result in England with a best of 5th at the Italian Open where he led into the final day as he threatened to add a third DP World Tour title to his CV. His 2017 Joburg Open and 2018 Malaysian Open victories both came on scoreable, tree-lined tracks with winning totals of 23- and 21-under respectively, and although he’s winless at all levels since then he can still boast a further 6 PGTI wins from earlier in his career.
Of course the most relevant piece of form to this week’s task is his debut 3rd place finish here on this course in 2021. Opening rounds of 67/64 put Sharma in a great spot heading into the weekend, and save for an early double-bogey on the par-3 third on Sunday he could have been right in the conversation at the very end of proceedings. Opening rounds of 66/66 here last year put the 28 year-old in a great position to better that effort from 2 years before, and although the weekend didn’t pan out as he would have hoped it’s undoubtedly more evidence that he gets on well with this track.
10th for the season for SG Putting is a massive improvement over full-season rankings of 73rd and 58th prior to this year, and with the ball finding the bottom of the cup with regularity he could push on to a big finish over the weekend as conditions become more scoreable.
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Adri Arnaus 1pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Finally I’ll take a speculative punt on Adri Arnaus who’s undoubtedly more hit than miss nowadays but who’s shown just enough glimpses of form of late for me to take a chance on him on a course where he’s shown significant promise in the past.
12 missed cuts from his last 16 starts explains why we’re getting such a generous price on the Spaniard, but 5th at the Italian Open back in June and 12th at the Czech Masters in August – where he opened with a 66 and closed with a 64 – suggests there’s a little underlying form in there somewhere.
The Barcelona man’s game has morphed over the years from what was originally a strong off-the-tee and tee-to-green style with little in the way of putting to what’s often nowadays the polar opposite, however there’s always the chance that the stars align and all elements click once again as they did in early 2022 where Adri recorded four top-9 finishes and his breakthrough win at the Catalunya Championship in a stretch of seven starts.
Now I’m not quite sure we’re back to those heady heights, however over his last four paid weekends he’s ranked 15th, 1st, 2nd and 17th for SG Putting with that last effort coming at Wentworth last week. If he can maintain that and find some semblance of form with his long game then repeating the kind of performance that saw him finish an unlucky runner-up here to Rafa Cabrera-Bello in 2021 after having come 4th on debut 2 years, before isn’t totally out of the question.
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