Although the Rolex Series may have relegated this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links a little in terms of stature in recent times, it’s still more than a decent title to win with a $5m prize fund up for grabs, plus the event is equally about the celebrity amateurs who play alongside their golfing heroes at and around the Home of Golf for 4 days.
The event is played over 3 courses for the first 3 days – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews – then the final round is contested around the Old Course with slightly trickier pin positions after 3 days of pretty generous placements to help the amateurs.
Temperament is an important factor in this quirky event where rounds can take over 6 hours to complete, with some of the amateurs barely able to claim ‘hacker’ status. Long waits of half an hour or longer are common on some tees as play grinds to a halt, so those with the personality to enjoy the occasion whilst retaining focus when it’s eventually their time to play a shot are at an advantage.
Given the 3-course rota, an extended field of 168 players are in attendance this week with 10 of the world’s top 50 here in what’s an excellent field overall. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are virtual joint-favourites with most bookmakers at around 6/1 having both suffered play-off defeats on their last start; Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood, who both played well last week in Spain and both have strong records here, follow at around the 11/1 and 12/1 mark respectively.
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Course Overview. The Old Course at St Andrews needs little introduction as the ‘Home of Golf’ is steeped in golfing tradition dating back to the very roots of the sport some 600 years ago. The 17th Road Hole, with its notorious bunker, and the closing 18th, which features the Swilcan Bridge and the Valley of Sin, are the most famous closing holes on the planet and this rolling links is recognisable worldwide to those with just the most basic of golfing knowledge.
The 7,318 yard, par 72 has a peculiar setup of 14 par-4s and just a pair each of par-3s & par-5s and features 7 double greens with huge, fescue/bentgrass putting surfaces. The other two tracks used for a day each in this event are Carnoustie and Kingsbarns with Carnoustie tending to play the toughest of all 3 courses, however much depends on the strength of the breeze.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2022: Ryan Fox, 80/1; 2021: Danny Willett, 100/1; 2019: Victor Perez, 175/1; 2018: Lucas Bjerregaard, 50/1; 2017: Tyrrell Hatton, 22/1; 2016: Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen, 200/1; 2014: Oliver Wilson, 500/1; 2013: David Howell, 125/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 50/1; 2011: Michael Hoey, 250/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 16/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for St Andrews is here.
Our trip to Scotland will be greeted with typically autumnal conditions with a sunny start on Thursday giving way to cloudier and then wetter conditions on Saturday. Temperatures will peak around the mid-50s Fahrenheit with the breeze at its strongest on Friday at around 15mph.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 12 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test. Given the weather issues last year, no statistics were captured for eventual winner Matt Fitzpatrick. Stats are from St Andrews rounds only:
2022, Ryan Fox (-15). 67.6% fairways (12th), 81.5% greens in regulation (9th), 50% scrambling (42nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021, Danny Willett (-18). 60.4% fairways (32nd), 87.5% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (15th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th).
2019, Victor Perez (-22). 70.6% fairways (21st), 90.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 42.9% scrambling (38th), 1.68 putts per GIR (12th).
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard (-15). 64.1% fairways (19th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 41.7% scrambling (32nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Tyrrell Hatton (-24). 60.4% fairways (39th), 85.2% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (13th).
2016, Tyrrell Hatton (-23). 72.9% fairways (27th), 83.3% greens in regulation (10th), 77.8% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th).
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen (-18). 57.0% fairways (130th), 86.1% greens in regulation (7th), 50% scrambling (87th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th)
2014, Oliver Wilson (-17). 62.8% fairways (89th), 75.9% greens in regulation (64th), 88.5% scrambling (1st), 1.85 putts per GIR (89th)
2013, David Howell (-23). 69.9% fairways (93rd), 88.9% greens in regulation (10th), 75.0% scrambling (32nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th)
2012, Branden Grace (-22). 62.8% fairways (112th), 84.7% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (46th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
2011, Michael Hoey (-22). 59.4% fairways (120th), 81.9% greens in regulation (29th), 81.8% scrambling (7th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th)
2010, Martin Kaymer (-17). 73.5% fairways (40th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 69.2% scrambling (10th), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th)
With the exception of Carnoustie, fairways are wide and greens large and easy to hit, so much of this event comes down to how players perform on and around the greens.
Converting birdie chances is critical if players are going to compile a contending score and minimising bogeys from off of the green is also vital in an event where somewhere around 20-under is typically the target to be in with a sniff on Sunday afternoon in average conditions.
As well as the event’s nuances that are more obvious in that a slow, pro-am event on 3 different links tracks isn’t likely to suit everyone, there are also some other important points to consider:
With the exception of Victor Perez in 2019, Tyrrell Hatton in 2016, Oliver Wilson in 2014 and Stephen Gallacher in 2004, every other winner of this event since 2001 already had a career victory on the European/DP World Tour.
GB & Ireland players have won 14 of those 22 Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, Karlsson (08), Kaymer (10), Grace (12), Olesen (15),Bjerregaard (18), Perez (19) and Fox (22) being the exceptions.
10 of the last 15 winners here had a win in the current or previous season to their name; 3 of those 15 were arriving here having won their previous event.
8 of the last 15 winners here had recorded at least a top-10 in this event in their career prior to winning.
Incoming Form. In terms of incoming form, the winners here since 2010 have been very mixed as is reflected by odds ranging from 12/1 to 500/1, and more than half of the winners in that period have been 100/1 or longer pre-event.
Martin Kaymer (16/1) in 2010 completed a personal hat-trick of wins here having captured the US PGA Championship and KLM Open in his two previous events. Michael Hoey (250/1) hadn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous 10 starts, David Howell (125/1) had recorded a solitary top-10 in the previous 6 months, Oliver Wilson (500/1) had failed to make the top-30 in his previous 15 events, most of which were on the Challenge Tour, and Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1) had missed 10 of his previous 14 cuts after his return from a wrist injury.
Despite some good early-season form, Tyrrell Hatton arrived here in 2016 with incoming efforts of MC/MC/45, however his successful defence came off the back of consecutive top-8 finishes. 2012 winner Branden Grace (50/1) had shown poor recent form on the European Tour before winning here, although he did arrive fresh off the back of a low-key victory the previous week on the Sunshine Tour.
Lucas Bjerregaard had shown some of the most consistent form of recent victors here with 4 consecutive top-20 finishes before winning in 2018, included in which was a play-off defeat at Crans on his penultimate start, whereas Victor Perez had finished 10th in Sweden 3 starts before winning in 2019.
After the 2020 break for Covid, Danny Willett won here at 100/1 off of very patchy looking form. 33rd at the Open Championship was solid, however 3 missed cuts and a tailed-off 71st at Wentworth hardly inspired punters. In a similar vein, 2022 winner Ryan Fox had seemingly gone off the boil after some sparkling early season form, however he turned it around here in fine style.
To complete the story, last year’s winner Matt Fitzpatrick was a well-fancied 12/1 shot having finished 2nd at the PGA Tour’s BMW Championship and 3rd at Crans-sur-Sierre before finishing a solid 18th at Wentworth prior to forming part of the winning Ryder Cup team. A very mixed bag indeed:
2023, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/9/20/17/49/MC/41/66/2/13/3/18
2022, Ryan Fox: 2/54/2/MC/3/2/47/MC/22/MC/WD/MC
2021, Danny Willett: 18/MC/11/64/26/67/MC/33/MC/MC/71/MC
2019, Victor Perez: 61/MC/MC/15/MC/MC/26/61/28/10/MC/MC
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 3/71/5/61/MC/MC/39/WD/9/6/2/20
2011, Michael Hoey: 70/1/31/54/66/MC/MC/34/MC/52/48/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1/1
Event Form. Going back to 2010, around half of the winners had fairly tangible form here – in fact Kaymer, Wilson, Olesen and Willett had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers and Hatton was defending champion in 2017.
David Howell had 4 top-8 finishes from 12 starts here prior to winning and clearly also enjoys the format. Hoey, Grace, Hatton (in 2016), Bjerregaard and Fox on the other hand would have been very difficult to pick out simply by eyeballing their previous efforts at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Victor Perez was making his debut here in 2019. Matt Fitzpatrick’s record prior to winning was solid if unspectacular:
2023, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/MC/15/MC/26/22
2022, Ryan Fox: MC/MC/24/54/54
2021, Danny Willett: 42/2/27/5/MC/MC/52/MC/26
2019, Victor Perez: Debut
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 32/MC/MC/MC
2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC/1
2016, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: 45/2/MC/58
2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/32/MC/40/2/MC/21/34/59
2013, David Howell: 3/58/6/5/37/MC/MC/60/MC/8/MC/34
2012, Branden Grace: MC
2011, Michael Hoey: MC/19/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 15/2
In years where conditions have been tougher, it’s been players who’ve featured towards the top of the GIR stats on the week who’ve tended to prevail. This is links golf though so a strong short game is also of value and contenders will need to bring all aspects of their game this week if they’re going to compile a competitive total.
My selections are as follows:
Robert MacIntyre 3pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
The prospect of a Rahm vs McIlroy battle for the Dunhill Links title makes this year’s annual jaunt to St Andrews all the more exciting and should it pan out like that it will undoubtedly be compulsive viewing, however I suspect that a few others including Robert MacIntyre don’t see it being quite as straightforward as that.
Splitting the market leaders isn’t an easy task – in fact many bookmakers sit firmly on the fence and make them joint favourites – neither is finding plausible reasons as to why they can’t or won’t win. Yet the past three DP World Tour events have demonstrated beyond any doubt that the market principals can and do get beaten.
Rasmus Hojgaard picked Rory’s pocket in Northern Ireland before Billy Horschel did much the same in extra time at Wentworth, making eagle on the second play-off hole to take the title. Angel Hidalgo, a 250/1 shot, successfully stared down 3/1 favourite Rahm last week on home soil to trump the previous fortnight’s results and although all three events could have gone the other way, it does prove that the favourites are beatable.
Tyrrell Hatton has won this event twice and played nicely for 10th place last week in Madrid, as did Tommy Fleetwood who was a couple of strokes better in 3rd place and has been runner-up here at the Dunhill Links twice.
Hatton in particular was tempting, however my preference is to back Bob who’s playing alongside his father Dougie this week in what’s sure to be a fun week for the MacIntyres. It was Dougie of course who stepped in as caddie back in June to inspire his son to an emotional victory at the Canadian Open and I suspect there’s nothing more that Robert would like to do than repay that with an overall and team win for the pair this week, emulating the feat that Matt Fitzpatrick performed last year alongside his mum Susan.
The Oban man has a wealth of links experience from his amateur days and St Andrews is a course he knows better than many. 4 attempts at the Dunhill Links have produced 3 top-26 finishes without being in serious contention on the Sunday so far, however 5th to halfway and 11th into Sunday back in 2022 when we last completed the tournament’s scheduled 4 rounds is encouraging and strong enough foundations to build upon this week.
Victory at the Scottish Open in July will take some beating for Bob, however after an understandably lacklustre Open Championship effort the week after perhaps he can build on promising incoming form of 5th at the Irish Open and 12th last time out at Wentworth, as he looks to keep up with the early pacesetters on Ryder Cup qualification for next year. RESULT: T25
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Tom McKibbin 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
The rest of the upper end of the market I’m happy to leave alone this week with my next team member Tom McKibbin coming in at a healthy mid-price.
Players don’t always take to this event immediately – indeed some never do – however in the case of McKibbin his 14th place finish in last year’s weather-affected renewal was a handy debut and hints heavily of more to come here at the Home of Golf. A missed cut on his previous start in France and nothing better than a tie for 20th since his breakthrough success in the preceding June, the Northern Irishman wasn’t firing on all cylinders heading into this last year, however with the momentum from a pair of 67s in rounds 2 and 3 he could have been even closer to the lead had the event gone to its full 4 days.
It’s no real surprise that the 21 year-old is a links natural hailing from a part of the world bedecked with such an array of coastal courses and as he continues to progress through his career I’m sure we’ll see plenty of contending performances in this style of golf, potentially as early as this week.
Of course, from the perspective of golf this side of the Atlantic he may have fewer chances to make good on that assertion next year should he gain one of the PGA Tour cards up for grabs to DP World Tour members, of which he’s currently in possession of the 9th of 10 that are available. His form from January through to June was largely responsible for getting him in that position with 6 top-10 finishes in the space of just 10 starts at one point, however after a brief lull in performances he could be on the upward trajectory once again as looks to lock in his State-side playing rights.
10th in Denmark and 30th at the Irish Open both followed poor opening days that had left the Belfast lad staring missed cuts in the face both times before recovering admirably; 10th at Wentworth on his last start was more consistent though with his long game in good shape and the putter performing positively from a Strokes Gained perspective. RESULT: T43
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Of the longer prices, one of the most appealing options on links terrain is Grant Forrest who is available at a backable price given the quality of the field, despite recording the round of the day on Sunday in Madrid to finish in a tie for 3rd place.
5th at the Irish Open at Royal County Down earlier in the month was the latest in a list of impressive performances on links or links-style courses that gives us hope that he can improve on a progressive Dunhill record that’s seen him finish 10th here on his last two attempts. 3rd at Hillside in 2022 reinforces his case, as does 11th at the co-sanctioned PGA Tour level Scottish Open last year, however the most tangible form of course comes from his maiden victory at Fairmont St Andrews at the 2021 Hero Open, a course which sits on the coast between the Old Course and Kingsbarns.
Links golf is in the Scot’s blood having produced a wonderful amateur record touring many of his homeland’s most prestigious courses. The 2014 St Andrews Trophy winner here at the Old Course, Grant was also runner-up to Romain Langasque at the 2015 Amateur Championship which holds relevance given it was hosted at Carnoustie.
At 46th in the Race To Dubai, needs must over the next few weeks if the North Berwick resident is going to be playing in the lucrative end-of-season DP World Tour Championship with only the top 50 qualifying. RESULT: T35
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Having put Daniel Brown up at the Irish Open at a healthy 3-figure price, it would be remiss of me to ignore him here this week at the Dunhill Links as much of the same logic still applies as he heads back to the type of terrain where he’s excelled of late.
We were also on board the 29 year-old when he secured his maiden DP World Tour title last August, coming across the Irish Sea at host course Galgorm Castle with one of the rounds played on a true links test at Castlerock GC on the Northern Irish coast.
The SDC Championship earlier this year produced another strong performance with Dan finishing 4th overall – played at St Francis Links the course is a modern links, but one which demands a similar skillset regardless.
And then we have The Open Championship, where the Northallerton man was one of the stories of the year. An opening round of 65 at Royal Troon was the stuff of dreams on his Major Championship debut as he wrestled the first round lead from our 50/1 FRL punt Shane Lowry from a late tee time. To his credit he stuck around all week, heading into Sunday in second place before eventually feeling the heat over the final 18 holes and finishing 10th in the end.
Strictly speaking, Dan’s debut effort here last year goes down as a missed cut as he finished in 67th from the 3 rounds that were played, however 66 to open at Kingsbarns was positive as he sat in 10th place after round 1 and he had no chance of threatening the leaders playing Carnoustie on the third and final round in extremely soggy conditions. Wider Scottish form is solid having never missed a cut aside from the aforementioned curtailed event here last year, and prior to The Open Dan sat 8th after day 1 at Renaissance in classy company and inside the top 20 heading into Sunday before a flat finish.
Despite last week’s missed cut, at 47th in the Race to Dubai, Brown has a real chance of securing himself a start at the Earth Course in a few weeks time if he can produce just one more big result and this week presents his best chance of achieving that in my view. RESULT: T54
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Joakim Lagergren 1pt EW 250/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet
Finally, the Dunhill Links has always been a bit of a ‘Marmite’ event with some players never getting to grips with either the courses, the format or both, whereas others such as Joakim Lagergren seemingly come to life whenever the tournament comes around.
The Swede is playing on invite this week having lost his card due to a poor 2023, however 4 top-4 finishes from 7 starts here at the Dunhill Links over the years gives plenty of hope that he can put last year’s woes behind him with another big effort here.
Never the most consistent of golfers, his debut 4th here followed a missed cut the week before in Germany and he repeated that finish the following year off of immediate form of 53/63. 3rd in 2019 was a little more telegraphed as he’d finished 20th, 7th and 24th on his previous 3 outings. 2nd in 2021 was back to normal though as finishes of 63/27/MC hardly screamed success. In short, in-form or otherwise Lagergren is worth following here at the Home of Golf.
Despite incoming form of MC/59 on his last 2 Challenge Tour outings, there’s been much to admire about the 32 year-old’s form this season as he looks to bounce straight back to the top level. 2nd at the Northern Ireland Open at the end of July was disappointing in that a Saturday 61 had given Lagergren a gilt-edged chance of winning which was blighted by a Sunday 73; he bounced back in style though, recording his first victory for very nearly a decade the following week at the Irish Challenge and he followed that up 3 weeks later with another win, this time at the Indoor Golf Group Challenge.
As ever with a player like Lagergren there’s always the risk of a poor performance and a missed cut, however given the price on offer I’ll take that chance. RESULT: MC
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