On to this week we go as the DP World Tour heads to Royal County Down for the Irish Open, retaining its position in the schedule ahead of next week’s flagship event at Wentworth.
Matt Wallace’s win last week showed that Ryder Cup qualification is on the minds of those players who aren’t assured a place on Luke Donald’s team next autumn, and we have more hopefuls in the field this week in Northern Ireland who’ll no doubt be looking for some early points in the year-long race to make it to Bethpage Black.
Barring some kind of disaster, this week’s favourite Rory McIlroy shouldn’t be worrying himself with any such issues, but he’ll no doubt be keen to resurrect a season that’s somewhat petered out of late. 11/2 is the best price on offer about the Northern Irishman at the time of writing, with Ireland’s Shane Lowry and England’s Aaron Rai available at 10/1 and 14/1 respectively below him in the betting.
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The Irish Open tends to move around a bit in terms of venue and this year we return to Royal County Down GC for the first time since 2015 – well worth bearing this in mind when reviewing the event history stats as all tournaments played since then have been hosted elsewhere.
The track is a 7,186 yard par 71 located in Newcastle, County Down on the east coast of Northern Ireland and is a classic links course designed originally by Old Tom Morris in 1889 with alterations from Harry Vardon and Harry Colt over the years.
The course stretches along the shores of Dundrum Bay with narrow, gorse-lined fairways leading to fast, dome-shaped greens that will repel approach shots that aren’t of the highest quality; traditional links shot-shaping and imagination will be required in abundance for players to succeed around these parts with the course setting up to be a strong test of golf for the professionals.
The opening par-5 1st hole proved to be the easiest of the 18 here back in 2015, yielding 16 eagles and 195 birdies over the 4 days, although that was very much the exception to the rule. Only two other holes played under par – the par 5 12th and the short par 4 16th – with even the closing hole, a 548-yard par 5 – proving difficult for the professionals that week.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well in this event, although as previously noted this week’s venue hosted the event in 2015 only: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Event Winners. 2023: Vincent Norrman, 50/1; 2022: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2021: Lucas Herbert, 33/1; 2020: John Catlin, 40/1; 2019: John Rahm, 8/1; 2018: Russell Knox, 28/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 14/1; 2016: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2015: Soren Kjeldsen, 150/1; 2014: Mikko Ilonen, 80/1; 2013: Paul Casey, 50/1; 2012: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Ross Fisher, 20/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
A generally cool and showery 4 days will greet the players in Northern Ireland this week with any sunny spells being interrupted by rain every now and then. Winds will switch from a 15mph northerly on Thursday to a lighter southerly on Friday, however Saturday looks increasingly challenging as some wetter weather blows in alongside a 20mph breeze before a calmer Sunday with the winds coming in from the west.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the last few Irish Opens gives us some idea of that kind of skill-sets that this week’s test may demand:
2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
2022: Adrian Meronk. 288 yards (39th), 44.6% fairways (70th), 82.0% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
2021: Lucas Herbert. 313 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (35th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 73.9% scrambling (15th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
2020: John Catlin. 279 yards (55th), 62.5% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 80% scrambling (2nd), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th).
2019: Jon Rahm. 309 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 52.6% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2018: Russell Knox. 305 yards (18th), 53.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.73 putts per GIR (15th).
2017: Jon Rahm. 302 yards (8th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 46.2% scrambling (56th), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).
2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).
2015: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
2014: Mikko Ilonen. 291 yards (31st), 51.9% fairways (31st), 73.6% greens in regulation (27th), 78.9% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
2013: Paul Casey. 287 yards (18th), 44.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th).
2012: Jamie Donaldson. 289 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 62.5% greens in regulation (64th), 63.0% scrambling (5th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).
A variety of different courses used may explain the disparity between stats in the results above and, depending on the course and conditions being played on any given year, either high GIR or a strong short game has been the winning formula in general.
Looking at 2015 in particular for Soren Kjeldsen’s win here at Royal County Down, Scrambling was the most consistent statistic between him and the two players who also made the play-off:
1st: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
2nd: Eddie Pepperell. 273 yards (44th), 46.4% fairways (52nd), 70.8% greens in regulation (4th), 71.4% scrambling (2nd), 1.88 putts per GIR (38th).
2nd: Bernd Wiesberger. 300 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (55th), 58.3% greens in regulation (37th), 56.7% scrambling (22nd), 1.81 putts per GIR (14th).
Conditions were tough here 9 years ago with only 5 players finishing the week under par. Birdies were at a real premium: Kjeldsen made 15 on the week, Wiesberger 13and Pepperell 11, whereas Rafa Cabrera-Bello who finished 4th made just 9 on the week, so being comfortable playing for par was a key skill.
Incoming Form: There are positives to pick out of the recent form of our past 12 Irish Open champions and none arrived in what you’d class as poor form.
All 12 had recorded a top-20 finish in their previous 7 outings, with seven of our last eight winners each having finished in the top four in one of their previous five starts.
A similar trend continues with Dyson (2011) and Fisher (2010), broken eventually by the shock win from Shane Lowry as an amateur back in 2009:
2023, Vincent Norrman: MC/MC/24/1/25/50/58/49
2022, Adrian Meronk: 61/28/3/3/MC/6/3/MC
2021, Lucas Herbert: MC/70/46/MC/MC/71/18/19
2020, John Catlin: 8/43/51/6/MC/25/1/8
2019, Jon Rahm: 12/6/24/9/MC/MC/3/2
2018, Russell Knox: MC/MC/16/20/44/12/38/2
2017, Jon Rahm: 10/27/4/72/2/MC/MC/10
2016, Rory McIlroy: 20/MC/3/27/4/10/4/12
2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/45/MC/14/MC/31/9/18
2014, Mikko Ilonen: 5/33/37/MC/8/MC/38/32
2013, Paul Casey: MC/16/MC/8/MC/51/45/53
2012, Jamie Donaldson: 51/3/63/44/15/53/WD/22
Looking at 2015 here at Royal County Down in particular, Soren Kjeldsen had finished 9th at the tough Spanish Open two weeks before his victory and 18th the week before at Wentworth in its previous place in the calendar, so he’d been demonstrating a good ability to grind out a score.
Event Form: Despite the fact that the venue and style of course used for the Irish Open varies from year to year, it’s interesting to note that prior to Jon Rahm’s debut win in 2017 the previous 5 winners had all recorded at least one top-13 finish in the event prior to winning. Russell Knox continued that trend in 2018 before Rahm tasted victory for a second time in this event the year after.
Again the same can be said about Simon Dyson and Ross Fisher in their respective victories, with the trend once again falling down with Shane Lowry’s success at Baltray.
John Catlin’s win at Galgorm Castle in 2020, which was a new course to many of the field, was on his Irish Open debut; Lucas Herbert, on the other hand, had finished 7th in Catlin’s victory before winning at Mount Juliet in 2021. 2022 winner Adrian Meronk also had an Irish Open top 10 to his name, although Vincent Norrman’s win last year at the K Club muddies the water somewhat:
Royal County Down is a tough course that’s likely to have some protection from the elements this week. Winds of 15-20mph at various points that will switch direction during the event will create fresh challenges each day, and those players who can adapt and manage the changeable forecast may be best suited to the task at hand.
My final Irish Open tips are as follows:
Robert MacIntyre 3pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
The top of the market troubles me this week. Rory McIlroy understandably heads the betting this week at 11/2 and as the third-highest ranked golfer on the planet according to the OWGR he’s entitled to be the favourite on home soil. A missed cut here in 2015 and a missed cut at this year’s Open could be overlooked if he’d shown some positive momentum heading into this, but 68th out of 70 at TPC Southwind followed by 11th at the BMW Championship and 12th at East Lake aren’t the kind of results to encourage me enough at the price on offer.
Shane Lowry at 10/1 will have his backers and quite rightly so, however he’s talked about the fatigue of The Open followed by The Olympics then straight into the PGA Tour Playoffs, and I wonder if he’ll be at peak performance this week, especially with Wentworth to come next week. I suspect that any other event than the Irish Open and he’d have taken this week off.
Aaron Rai carries some appeal, especially when you consider his 2020 Scottish Open win which came at -11 in tough conditions at Renaissance Club, however my preference is to back Robert MacIntyre who could find yet another gear now that he’s back this side of the Atlantic.
Having gained his PGA Tour card courtesy of his DP World Tour performance last season, Bob’s been quite open about the challenges and upheaval that he’s faced trying to settle into stateside golf this year. His victory with his dad Dougie on the bag at the Canadian Open was the stuff of legend and the 28 year-old went a step further on his last regular DP World Tour start, winning the Scottish Open at Renaissance Club with a magnificent birdie on the final hole to pip Adam Scott at the post. With this week and next at Wentworth to come, plus playing alongside his dad at the Dunhill Links, the world number 16 should be in relaxed mood these next few weeks and that could spell danger for his opponents.
A challenging links is no issue for the Oban man who already has two top-8 Open Championship finishes to his name, the best of which was 6th at the 2019 edition on Northern Irish soil at Royal Portrush.
7th at the St Jude Championship was ultimately enough for Bob to make it through to East Lake, where 16th on debut and a closing round of 64 was more than enough encouragement for me to take a chance on him this week as he, like Matt Wallace last week, looks to get off to a flying start to Ryder Cup qualification.
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The rest of my team this week is pretty speculative and the next shortest price I’m backing is John Catlin who is available up to 100/1 at the time of writing.
I want a certain type of player this week who has the aptitude to dig in and churn out pars when the situation dictates and the American is exactly that type of character. 3 times a winner at DP World Tour level, his first victory came at 2-over par at the 2020 Andalucia Masters hosted at the perennially unforgiving Valderrama golf club.
10 under was the mark when he won this title at Galgorm Castle as golf got back on its feet following the pandemic, and he backed that up with a 14-under success at Diamond Country Club in Austria the following April on a course where the scoring never gets out of hand and if anything is slightly inflated due to the par of 72. Make no mistake, when it’s tough Catlin can excel.
2023 ended with the 33 year-old recording back-to-back top-10 finishes in Thailand and Mauritius to suggest he wasn’t far away from top form, and he duly proved that point in March when winning in Macau on the Asian Tour before repeating the feat at the Saudi Open on his next start a month or so later.
5 starts on LIV have followed as he stood in for the injured Charles Howell, however the most eye-catching result with regards relevance to this week was his 16th place finish at The Open back in July which is by far his best career Major Championship finish.
Accuracy won’t hurt this week on the Northern Irish coast and Catlin has that in abundance, and after 3 weeks off he should be ready and raring to go this week on a rare DP World Tour start.
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Andrew Johnston 1pt EW 100/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Betfred
As painful as it was to see Matt Wallace win last week as Crans having backed him a number of times this season on the PGA Tour, it was nevertheless great to see him emotionally bounce back from a low ebb earlier this year to capture his first title this side of the Atlantic for 6 years. The Englishman has been open about his struggles on the course, as has his compatriot Andrew Johnston whose loss of form due to both physical and mental health challenges are well documented.
Now it may be asking a lot for Beef to build on last week’s performance in the Swiss Alps and produce another contending display having been out of the business end of tournaments for a good 3 years or more, however should he be able to gather his thoughts and energy ahead of this week’s test then the price on offer is too good to resist. After all, had his putt on the 71st hole dropped – which looked for all the world like it would – then we could have had a very difference result at Crans.
Like Catlin, Johnston is proven on tougher tests having won his maiden and to date only DP World Tour level title at Valderrama back in 2016 with a 1-over par total. Grinding out a score is very much his forte and progressive form of 18th at The Belfry and 3rd last week on two tricky tests tells us that he’s lost none of that fight during his rehabilitation and recovery these past few years.
6th at the Northern Ireland Open on the Challenge Tour in 2013, Beef was 9th the last time he played across the border at the 2021 Irish Open. 8th at the 2016 Open Championship played at Troon is good links form, as is 4th at Renaissance in 2019, and I see no reason not to take a chance on him here.
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One of the most impressive performances outside of the elite players at The Open was from England’s Dan Brown and whilst he’s understandably and almost inevitably gone off the boil since that effort, a return to links terrain may spark another performance after he hinted at something better to come with a 2nd round 68 at The Belfry the week before last.
An opening round of 65 at Royal Troon was the stuff of dreams for the Northallerton man on his Major Championship debut as he wrestled the first round lead from our 50/1 FRL punt Shane Lowry from a late tee time. To his credit he stuck around all week, heading into Sunday in second place before eventually feeling the heat over the final 18 holes and finishing 10th.
By his own admission the 29 year-old was a bit sick of links golf having played so much of it during his formative years, however absence has undoubtedly made the heart grow fonder now that his opportunities to play this style of golf are more limited, and there’s no doubt that he’s got the game to compete here given what we saw in Ayrshire. 4th at the SDC Championship earlier this year was Dan’s only other top-10 finish of the season – St Francis Links, a more modern take on the game’s oldest style, was the venue that week.
We were on board when Brown won his maiden DP World Tour title at last year’s ISPS Handa Championship at 66/1. Northern Ireland was the venue that week and although the parkland-style Galgorm Castle was the host course, a true coastal links in the shape of Castlerock GC was the other course used in that week’s rotation.
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Max Kieffer 1pt EW 200/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Finally, at another long price, I’ll take a chance on Max Kieffer who’s another who can grind out a score when the situation demands it.
Runner up to John Catlin at the aforementioned 2021 Austrian Open where he finally succumbed to the American on the fifth extra hole, the German was also party to another marathon play-off at the 2013 Spanish Open where it took Raphael Jacquelin 9 holes to dispatch Kieffer. 5-under was the mark to get into that play-off that week and Max also had to grind on his breakthrough Challenge Tour title the year before to win at -7. He’s another player who can undoubtedly hang around on a tough course,
We have to go all the way back to January to find the 34 year-old’s last top-10 finish which goes some way to explaining his price, however there have been enough sporadic signs of life to give him a chance here this week. 21st at the Scottish Open at co-sanctioned PGA Tour level contained a pair of 64s and he opened and closed with rounds of 67 and 66 respectively at the Barracuda Championship the following week. 39th at The Belfry could have been far better were it not for a closing 75, and last week’s 34th at Crans saw him close with his best round of the week despite finishing with a bogey for a 67 total.
Max can draw on his 8th place finish here in 2015 where he led after the first round and was 2nd heading into Sunday before closing with a 77; now a DP World Tour winner having won the 2022 Czech Masters, should he find himself in a similar situation this week perhaps he’ll fare a little better.
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