Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Andalucia Masters Tips 2022

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A blank week for me in Madrid, however I must congratulate my colleague Steve Bamford who not only snared Tom Kim’s second PGA Tour victory at the Shriners last week at 22/1, but he also managed full each-way place returns from Sungjae Im (16/1) and Tom Hoge (50/1) into the bargain. Truly excellent tipping!

On to this week we go and the second week of our Spanish Swing takes us to the Iconic Valderrama course in Spain before we head to Majorca next week. A former WGC and Ryder Cup venue, Valderrama was briefly used for this event in 2010 and 2011 having dropped off the schedule following the demise of the season-ending Volvo Masters, however after hosting the 2016 Spanish Open this event returns to the Spanish track for a sixth consecutive year.

Matt Fitzpatrick returns to defend his title this year and in the absence of any other elite players, he rates as the clear favourite at around 13/2 at the time of writing. Ryan Fox, Robert MacIntyre, Rasmus Hojgaard and Minwoo Lee all rate around 20/1-22/1 in this relatively short field of 126 players.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 16:30BST 10.10.22, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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Club de Golf Valderrama, Sotogrande, Spain. Designer: Trent Jones Snr, 1985, with Kyle Phillips updates; Course Type: Classical, Technical; Par: 71; Length: 7,028 yards; Fairways: Bermuda Tifway; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: Bentgrass (G2).

Course Overview. The course is set just a few kilometres from the Mediterranean coastline and is a typical Trent Jones test in many respects with narrow, undulating fairways leading to tiny, sloping and relatively fast bentgrass G2 greens.

At a shade over 7,000 yards, the course isn’t long by today’s standards, however it’s still a stern test in all departments which can turn positively nasty if the weather closes in.

Changes to the course prior to the 2016 Spanish Open held here were generally to the bunkers and tees, plus the cork trees that line the fairways were cut back a little, however that didn’t make the course play any easier with Andrew Johnston running out the winner at +1 over the 4 days. More work has been undertaken on and around the putting surfaces on the front nine since Beef’s victory, however the challenge here is fundamentally the same and it’s a tough test from start to finish.

The layout features 3 par-5s in the par-71 35-36 format, with the back 9 and particularly the closing stretch featuring a succession of tough holes and the par-5 17th offering little in the way of respite, despite its seemingly attractive 536 yards in length.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at Valderrama: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners. 2021: Matt Fitzpatrick, 14/1; 2020: John Catlin, 125/1; 2019: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 80/1; 2018: Sergio Garcia, 9/2; 2017: Sergio Garcia, 5/1; 2016: Andrew Johnston, 100/1 (Spanish Open).

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here. It’s expected to be mostly sunny for the 4 tournament days this year at Valderrama with afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid-70s Fahrenheit. Winds will be moderate at around 10-15mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 10 winners at Valderrama (all competitions) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2021: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6). 55.4% fairways (44th), 57.0% greens in regulation (32nd), 80.6% scrambling (1st), 1.79 putts per GIR (35th).
  • 2020: John Catlin (+2). 66.1% fairways (4th), 47.3% greens in regulation (28th), 68.4% scrambling (5th), 1.79 putts per GIR (33rd).
  • 2019: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-10). 64.3% fairways (19th), 47.2% greens in regulation (66th), 73.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.43 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2018: Sergio Garcia (-12, 3 rounds). 78.6% fairways (10th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 58.3% scrambling (6th), 1.60 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia (-12). 62.5% fairways (24th), 65.3% greens in regulation (9th), 52.0% scrambling (27th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2016: Andrew Johnston (+1). 78.6% fairways (1st), 70.8% greens in regulation (1st), 52.4% scrambling (20th), 1.82 putts per GIR (25th).
  • 2011: Sergio Garcia (-6). 69.6% fairways (10th), 63.9% greens in regulation (10th), 61.5% scrambling (4th), 1.74 putt per GIR (8th).
  • 2010: Graeme McDowell (-3). 69.6% fairways (6th), 66.7% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (18th), 1.71 putt per GIR (4th).
  • 2008: Soren Kjeldsen (-8). 57.1% fairways (29th), 58.3% greens in regulation (22nd), 73.3% scrambling (4th), 1.74 putts per GIR (12th).
  • 2007: Justin Rose (-1). 51.8% fairways (26th), 55.6% greens in regulation (8th), 59.4% scrambling (7th), 1.67 putt per GIR (3rd).
  • 2006: Jeev Milkha Singh (-2). 41.1% fairways (52nd), 59.7% greens in regulation (17th), 62.1% scrambling (16th), 1.77 putts per GIR (15th).

Hitting the narrow fairways at Valderrama is only a small part of the task at hand, as is clear from the stats of the most recent winners on this track.

GIR stats as low as these for winners (2018 was an exception due to soft conditions) are extremely rare which emphasises just how difficult it is to hit the tiny greens here, and the winner is going to need to have an outstanding week scrambling from off of the putting surfaces in order to compile a winning score. Valderrama truly tests all aspects of a player’s game and any weaknesses are often cruelly exposed.

Strokes Gained: Overall, the last 3 winners here did their best work on the SG Tee to Green and SG Around the Green elements, with none of the trio producing any strong SG Approach figures into these small greens:

  • 2021: Matt Fitzpatrick. T: 18th; A: 37th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 1st; P: 27th
  • 2020: John Catlin. T: 11th; A: 48th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 2nd; P: 16th
  • 2019: Christiaan Bezuidenhout. T: 22nd; A: 36th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 1st; P: 1st

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Looking at the recent form of the same winners at Valderrama and the overriding trend is that all players had been in pretty good nick.

This includes last year’s winner Matt Fitzpatrick who had lost a play-off at the Scottish Open and improved through the week on his last start at Wentworth to finish 20th. The same applies to John Catlin who, despite being a 125/1 chance, had finished 8th in Austria and 6th in Wales before closing with a round of 68 the week before his victory here in 2020 for some good momentum.

Bezuidenhout has finished 3rd on his last outing in 2019, whereas Garcia had finished 7th the week before his successful defence the previous autumn, included in which was a closing round of 65 to suggest he was rounding into form.

The previous year Sergio had finished 12th and 10th at the final two FedEx Cup PlayOff events on the PGA Tour before returning to Europe and his effort in Italy the week before winning here had shown some promise as he sat 6th going into the weekend. The others all had contending performances to their names in recent weeks too as the stats below confirm:

  • Matt Fitzpatrick: 4/MC/23/MC/10/55/2/26/57/MC/MC/20
  • John Catlin: 22/16/2/MC/MC/MC/8/43/51/6/MC/25
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout: MC/24/67/2/9/36/4/14/MC/MC/25/3
  • Sergio Garcia: MC/70/MC/MC/12/8/MC/MC/39/MC/24/7
  • Sergio Garcia: 20/12/21/2/37/39/MC/35/12/10/MC/30
  • Andrew Johnston: MC/22/71/4/45/MC/15
  • Sergio Garcia: 20/MC/7/2/9/39/53/12/32/31/12/1
  • Graeme McDowell: 26/28/4/1/1/21/23/31/22/MC/3/17
  • Soren Kjeldsen: 7/38/MC/MC/7/MC/MC/16/30/MC/16/4
  • Justin Rose: 9/30/12/2/12/14/MC/5/11/2/9/21
  • Jeev Milkha Singh: 5/8/21/MC/MC/3/25/14/8/3/21/13

Course Form: A bit of a mixed bag here in terms of course form with Jeev Milkha Singh and Beef Johnston winning on their competitive debut, whereas Soren Kjeldsen, Graeme McDowell and Sergio Garcia (3 times) all had a strong record here prior to winning.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s record falls somewhere in the middle of those extremes with a 29th place finish on debut, however in doing so he recovered from an opening round of 77 to post one of the best final 2-round aggregate scores. John Catlin had missed the cut by a couple of shots on his only other start here before winning here in 2020, and it’s a similar story for defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick:

  • Matt Fitzpatrick: MC
  • John Catlin: MC
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 29
  • Sergio Garcia: 7/5/7/7/2/2/2/34/4/10/1/3/1
  • Sergio Garcia: 7/5/7/7/2/2/2/34/4/10/1/3
  • Andrew Johnston: Debut
  • Sergio Garcia: 7/5/7/7/2/2/2/34/4/10
  • Graeme McDowell: 55/15/22/32/4/8
  • Soren Kjeldsen: 55/25/22/18/2
  • Justin Rose: 18/44
  • Jeev Milkha Singh: Debut

Boiling it all down, it looks like the most likely winner will be a player who can handle a grind who’s shown some good form of late and is performing nicely around the greens. Accuracy both from off the tee and with approach shots is an advantage and far outweighs power in my opinion.

Birdies are in very short supply here at Valderrama – last year’s winner Matt Fitzpatrick made just 13 red numbers on the week – and players who thrive on momentum-building birdie streaks often get frustrated on this fiddly setup.

My selections are as follows:

Antoine Rozner 2pts EW 33/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Betfred

As per last week at the Spanish Open, we need to decide whether or not to side with the clear favourite on a course that he’s already proven capable of winning upon. In fairness, Matt Fitzpatrick at 13/2 does make a little more appeal than the 9/4 or thereabouts that was available on Jon Rahm before he surged to victory with a Sunday masterclass in Madrid, however I’m going to chance some each-way options and hope that the Sheffield man doesn’t retain his Andalucia Masters title this week.

The case against the US Open champion is fairly flimsy in truth, with last year’s success here validating his fit for tight, tree-lined tests and arriving here this week having secured that maiden Major title earlier in the summer. However a play-off defeat to Robert MacIntyre in Italy last month on his penultimate start is just about enough to offer doubts about backing him at such a short price, as it proves that winning a professional golf event – even as the hot favourite as he is this week – is rarely easy.

22nd at the Dunhill Links for Fitz is neither here nor there given the vagaries of that event, however I’ll take him on with Antoine Rozner whose form looks progressive enough to take a chance on.

13th at the Czech Masters and 4th at Crans, before a tie for 50th at Wentworth which was marred by a poor start and finish, offer some eye-catching stats. 1st for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green in Prague was impressive and he improved on that further in the Alps, recording 1st for SG Off the Tee to add to 2nd and 1st place rankings for SG Approach and SG Tee to Green respectively.

16th at the Italian Open, 11th at the Open de France and 4th at the Dunhill Links since then offers further encouragement and I’m of the view that tougher assignments suit the 29 year-old better than some of the more scoreable events on the circuit, a point reinforced with his most recent DP World Tour win in Qatar last year with an 8-under total.

A weekend off here last year completed a sequence of events where he failed to break the top 50 in 5 consecutive events – clearly his game is in a much better place right now, and we only need go back to 2020 to find some positive form here at Valderrama when he finished 3rd, despite losing shots from both off the tee and around the greens. 1st for SG Approach and 7th for SG Putting that week more than compensated for those negative points, and with his long game in great shape of late – combined with 6th for Scrambling from the recorded rounds at the Dunhill Links – he looks the sort who could prevent the favourite from obliging for the second successive week. RESULT: T14

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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

With 3 DP World Tour wins to his name now following his mightily impressive victory at the Open de France last month, Guido Migliozzi deserves a little more respect in this week’s market in my view and I’ll happily back him at a solid each-way price.

The manner in which the 25 year-old chased down Rasmus Hojgaard on a tough Le Golf National track was outstanding, and his shot-of-the-season contender at the 72nd hole will be replayed for years to come, however the confidence that victory could give Guido as he looks to qualify for his maiden Ryder Cup appearance on home soil can’t be underestimated.

Although a tight, tree-lined test like Valderrama wouldn’t appear to be a perfect match for a player who can be a little wayward from off the tee, 6th here in 2020 – flanked by 3 missed cuts, admittedly – demonstrates that he can perform here when in control of his golf ball, and in France he excelled with both his approach play (1st SG Approach) and from tee to green (2nd SG T2G) to suggest that he can contend here.

What we also know about the Italian is that when he finds winning form, another success can quickly follow. 15 starts separated his first and third Alps Tour wins in 2017/18, and he also won twice in the space of 7 starts on the DP World Tour once he’d made his breakthrough at the Kenya Open (another short, tree-lined track) back in 2019.

A missed cut on his last start at the Dunhill Links is irrelevant in my view – 13th at Wentworth a fortnight before his French success is far more noteworthy – and after a week off to get used to his new status as 3-time Tour winner, I can see him getting straight back into the saddle this week in Spain. RESULT: MC

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Romain Langasque 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Punters can be easily forgiven for having lost faith in backing Romain Langasque after flattering to deceive since his breakthrough win at Celtic Manor back in 2020. Playing tough that week in South Wales, the Frenchman secured a 2-shot victory over Sami Valimaki at just 8-under par to earn an entry in the notebook for future events where scoring is a challenge.

Since then it’s not quite gone to plan for the 27 year-old, despite a number of promising positions. 9th at the MyGolfLife Open earlier this year was followed by 8th the week after at the Steyn City Championship as each-way backers were desperately looking to collect a few crumbs. 8th at The Belfry, 7th at the Scandinavian Mixed and 5th at the BMW International Open were further examples of frustration given the short prices he was going off at, however following a less prominent run of form we find the Andorra native at a much more backable price.

Nothing better than a tie for 36th from his last 6 starts explains why we’re getting the longer odds this week, yet he opened with a blistering round of 61 around the Old Course at the Dunhill Links before being blown out of the equation on a windy Friday, eventually shooting 80 at Carnoustie. There’s nothing so sinister in the forecast this week, just a good solid test that should suit his ball-striking prowess.

Having missed the cut here at Valderrama on debut back in 2017, Langasque has shown good progress since that effort, finishing 17th here in 2019, despite an opening 77, before leading to halfway 12 months ago courtesy of a pair of 69s before dropping back to 11th place overall. RESULT: T32

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Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Kiradech Aphibarnrat offers some appeal after a solid Spanish debut last week, eventually finishing 8th after an opening round of 63 that tied the lead at Club de Campo after 18 holes.

With no practical experience of Valderrama we’ll have to take a flyer on him getting on with the course, however there some good evidence that Aphibarnrat can handle a tree-lined track with form at Wentworth amongst others, having finished 2nd there last year in what could have quite conceivably been a victory at Rolex Series level had the final stretch gone differently. 14th in 2017 and 5th the following year tells us that it shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise though and the 33 year-old’s old-fashioned style of play should suit the classical tracks on the circuit better than many others.

PGA Tour form is always worth closer inspection when a player drops down to DP World Tour level and the Bangkok man, who confessed to homesickness affecting his play over the summer, can boast some solid efforts State-side in the recent past. 13th at the Wyndham Championship – another short, tree-lined par 70 – fuelled by middle rounds of 65 & 63 after an opening 72 had left him with a lot of work to do, is the pick of the bunch, although he was going well too at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship too, sitting in 2nd place before falling away over the weekend.

12th at the Italian Open last month reinforces the fact Kiradech is playing some tidy golf of late and I have a sneaking suspicion that he’ll enjoy his first look at this claustrophobic layout. RESULT: MC

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Jamie Donaldson 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Finally, at a longer price, I’m happy to take a chance on Jamie Donaldson whose sporadic flashes of form tend to come on tougher assignments nowadays.

Without a win now since 2015 when he secured the Thailand Golf Championship on the Asian Tour, you have to go even further back to find his last win in Europe at the 2014 Czech Masters, yet breaking long winless streaks seems to be all the rage nowadays so perhaps we shouldn’t see that as to much of a negative.

Since lockdown the Welshman has recorded a number of decent efforts, most notably his runner-up finish at Wentworth last year at Rolex Series level. 2nd at the 2020 South African Open, 3rd at the Cyprus Open and 3rd at last year’s Cazoo Classic are also efforts which suggest that the 46 year-old isn’t quite done with his career just yet, and 8th at The Belfry, 6th at Renaissance, and 6th at Le Golf National in more recent times encourage that he can still be competitive on the right course and in the right conditions.

A missed cut at St Andrews, which made it 5 weekends off from his last 7 starts, explains his price, however one of those was at The Open and the others were narrow misses, so combined with his Open de France effort, I suspect he’s playing far better golf than the odds suggest.

4th here in 2017 and 10th in 2019 – where he was 3rd heading into Sunday before a final round of 78 – demonstrates a level of comfort and competence on this challenging track, and I’ll happily take a chance that he can find some of his most dogged golf this week to earn us a return. RESULT: T28

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✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:40BST 10.10.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.