AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips 2024

 

Matthieu Pavon delivered his first PGA Tour win at Torrey Pines last week and became only the second player since 1957 to win on course debut, so congratulations to you if you were on at Monday prices of anything up to 125/1 at the Farmers Insurance Open. I make that 150/1, 400/1, 300/1 and 125/1 winners of the first 4 PGA Tour events in 2024. It’s certainly not been predictable!

While I remember, don’t forget to give the podcast a listen – available on all podcast channels.

We move 450 miles up the Californian coast from La Jolla to the beautiful Carmel Bay for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Often the weakest event on the West Coast Swing for field strength, AT&T have got behind the tournament financially and 2024 sees this as a PGA Tour Signature event with a $20 million prize fund available for the short 80-man field with no cut. As a result the format also changes this year with amateurs only playing Thursday and Friday across 2 courses, rather than the standard 3 course rota. Naturally the host Pebble Beach course is the star as we saw at the 2019 U.S. Open won by Gary Woodland.

2024 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365

We’re giving you the opportunity to win in 2024 as we’re running our ever-popular Majors Competition in association with bet365 who’ve put a total of £250 in cash up for grabs to the winners. The competition is in the form of a one-and-done, so all you need to do to enter is give us a single player for each of the 4 Majors – full details are here.

Get up to 12 places each way at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf.

bet365 have recently launched their innovative ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf, following on from its success on horse racing over the past few years.

• bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.

The number of Each Way Extra places offered on an event can be viewed on the Each Way Extra coupon or on the bet slip as per the example below:

Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 11:15GMT 30.1.24, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

To access the different options and odds, simply select the ‘Each Way Extra’ market from the selected golf coupon to see the additional place terms that are available on your chosen event before the first group tees off. Once you’ve selected a price and the corresponding number of places from the Each Way Extra coupon, it will then appear on your bet slip.

If you don’t have a bet365 sports account then customers who sign up with bet365 via Golf Betting System receive their up to £30 in free bets account opening offer using bonus code SPORT30:

Before we go into the detail surrounding the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2024 is a short 80-player event played over 2 different courses, including amateur partners. The iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links is the host course and all competitors play the course once over Thursday or Friday. In a new format twist, amateurs will play for the opening two days, not for the weekend, and there is no cut.

2024 sees Spyglass Hill Golf Club host the non-Pebble Beach Golf Links on Thursday or Friday. In effect, as per standard on the coast, both these courses will play as tough as the weather conditions dictate, with in-form players always able to shoot low scores on the Poa Annua greens.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California: Designer: Neville and Grant 1919 with Connor and Palmer 2007; Course Type: Coastal, Classical, Short; Par: 72; Length: 6,972 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1 (Pacific); Number of Bunkers: 116; Acres of Fairway: 27; Fairways: Ryegrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Perennial Ryegrass with Poa Annua 2-3″; Greens: 3,500 sq.ft average Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft.

Course Scoring Average: 2012: 71.86 (-0.14), Difficulty Rank 24 of 49 courses. 2013: 71.41 (-0.59), Difficulty Rank 29 of 43 courses. 2014: 73.39 (+1.39), Rank 7 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.24 (-1.76), Rank 45 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.50 (+0.5), Rank 16 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.90 (-0.10), Rank 26 of 50 courses. 2018: 72.02 (+0.02), Rank 16 of 51 courses. 2019: 72.13 (+0.13), Rank of 12 of 49 courses. 2020: 72.52 (+0.52), Rank 8 of 41 courses. 2021: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank of 29 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.76 (-1.24), Rank 35 of 50 courses. 2023: 71.53 (-0.47), Rank 20 of 49 courses.

Spyglass Hill GC: Designer: Trent Jones Senior, 1966; Par: 72; Length: 7,041 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Number of Bunkers: 62; Acres of Rough: 24; Fairways: Perennial Ryegrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Perennial Ryegrass with Poa Annua 2″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 10ft.

Course Scoring Average: 72.58 (+0.58), Difficulty Rank 18 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.64 (+0.64), Difficulty Rank 11 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.76 (+1.76), Rank 11 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank 32 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.51 (+0.51), Rank 15 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.20 (+0.20), Rank 20 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.78 (-0.22), Rank 22 of 51 courses. 2019: 71.72 (-0.28), Rank 20 of 49 courses. 2020: 72.88 (+0.88), Rank 5 of 41 courses. 2021: 72.79 (+0.79), Rank 11 of 51 courses. 2022: 72.18 (+0.18), Rank 16 of 50 courses. 2023: 72.80 (+0.80), Rank 8 of 49 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Pebble Beach Golf Links and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.

Course Overview: As some of you will remember, the Covid pandemic meant that 2021’s renewal here was a non Pro-Am played over just Pebble Beach Golf Links (54 holes) and Spyglass Golf Club the Tournament Course (18 holes), so we have seen this 2-course rota before in operation.

There’s an undoubted link between host course Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines South Course. Yes, Pebble may be over 800 yards shorter than Torrey, but the courses share coastal locations and Poa Annua seeded greens. Green complexes also vary in size with the 5,000 sq.ft. average greens at Torrey last week replaced by postage stamp-sized 3,500 sq.ft. average greens at Pebble, which are the smallest on Tour. 18 holes will also be played at Spyglass Hill which ably assists the famous host course, which has hosted 7 Major Championships. Spyglass is similar to Pebble in the fact that it has real teeth if the weather is non-compliant. As per coastal golf in general, in tranquil conditions both courses are very attackable.

Wide off the tee, where even the most wayward of drivers can hit over 1 in 2 fairways, host course Pebble Beach is a classical, second-shot golf course. The track is fairly unremarkable statistically unless the elements really close in. Fierce 2014-type conditions throughout are unlikely this year, so expect a similar -18 to -20 winning total to be required. Key stats are that the green complexes at Pebble are traditionally some of the hardest to putt on from within 10 feet on the Tour. Miss the green and scrambling from distance becomes a real problem, as does making par from Pebble’s notorious bunkers.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Winners: 2023: Justin Rose (-18); 2022: Tom Hoge (-19); 2021: Daniel Berger (-18); 2020: Nick Taylor (-19); 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19); 2018: Ted Potter Jnr (-17); 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19); 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17); 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22); 2014: Jimmy Walker (-11); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-19); 2012: Phil Mickelson (-17); 2011: D.A. Points (-15); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-16).

• 2023: Justin Rose 69-69-65-66 -18/269
• 2022: Tom Hoge 63-69-68-68 -19/268
• 2021: Daniel Berger 67-66-72-65 -18/270
• 2020: Nick Taylor 63-66-69-70 -19/268
• 2019: Phil Mickelson 65-68-70-65 -19/268

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for AT&T Pebble Beach winners since 2010:

• 2023 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 24th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2022 – Tom Hoge: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2021 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2020 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2018 – Ted Potter Jnr: Round 1: 24th, Round 2: 35th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Vaughn Taylor: Round 1: 48th, Round 2: 18th, Round 3: 8th.
• 2015 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 59th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2011 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are AT&T Pebble Beach winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2010:

• 2023 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2022 – Tom Hoge: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: Level.
• 2021 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2020 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2019 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2018 – Ted Potter Jnr: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: Level.
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: Level, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 6 ahead.
• 2016 – Vaughn Taylor: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2015 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: Level, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 6 ahead.
• 2013 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: Level.
• 2012 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 9 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2011 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: Level, Round 2: Level, Round 3: Level.

OWGR of AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Winners: 2023: Rose 71; 2022: Hoge 68: 2021: Berger 15; 2020: N Taylor 229; 2019: Mickelson 17; 2018: Potter Jnr 243; 2017: Spieth 5.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2023: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -18.
• 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -19.
• 2021: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -18.
• 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -19.
• 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -19.
• 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Brendon Todd, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Stephan Jaeger.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Winning Odds: 2023: Rose 25/1; 2022: Hoge 66/1; 2021: Berger 18/1; 2020: N Taylor 160/1; 2019: Mickelson 25/1; 2018: Potter Jnr 500/1; 2017: Spieth 9/1; 2016: V Taylor 300/1; 2015: Snedeker 25/1; 2014: Walker 28/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Mickelson 25/1; 2011: Points 80/1; 2010: D Johnson 22/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 58/1; Overall Average: 91/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2023: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 60. Wind S 15-25 mph, with gusts to 36 mph. Friday: Scattered showers. High of 57. Wind S 10-15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 59. Wind S 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 52. Wind WNW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Monday: Sunny. High of 56. NNE 5-10 mph.
• 2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 62. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 65. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 66. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 68. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 59. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 60. Wind NW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Scattered morning showers turning to partly cloudy skies. High of 56. Wind NW 15-25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 58. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 62. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 61. Wind NW 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 65. Wind NNE 15-25 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 54. Wind SW 8-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 54. Wind SSE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Play was suspended for the day at 2:11 p.m. PT due to heavy rain. Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning with heavy afternoon showers. High of 48. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Due to wet conditions, the start of the final round was delayed for one hour. Rain and hail forced a suspension of play from 10:53 a.m.-1 p.m. Play was suspended due to darkness at 5:55 p.m., with two players left on the course. Mostly cloudy. High of 54. Wind NW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. Monday: Partly cloudy. High of 54. Wind W 5-10 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind WNW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 65. Wind NNW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 64. Wind WNW 15-25 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Mostly cloudy in the morning with moderate to heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Wind S 10-15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Due to unplayable conditions, play was suspended at 1:34 PST. Play was later called for the day with a resumption time Friday: Due to further rainfall and unplayable conditions Friday morning, the first round did not resume until 8:30 a.m. PST and was completed at 10:46 a.m. Rainy with a high of 60. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. The second round was suspended for the day due to fog at 4:21 p.m. Saturday: The second round resumed at 7:30 a.m. Saturday and was completed at 10:14 a.m. Third-round tee times began at 10 a.m. Partly cloudy with a high of 59. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 61. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Sunny, and warm with a high of 75 degrees. Wind W 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 64 degrees. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 63 degrees. Wind WNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Due to fog, the start of round three was delayed 30 minutes. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Pebble Beach, California is here.

Conditions for the 2024 renewal of the AT&T Pebble Beach look very northern European in their nature. With temperatures around 10-13 degrees Celsius (50-55 Fahrenheit) across all 4 days, plenty in the field will find this pretty cold. Plenty of rain in December and early January, plus forecast rain across Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday, will see the turf super soft. Wind-wise, Friday sees north-westerly up to 25mph in-play.  The final 36 holes looks calmer.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the WWT Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rory McIlroy / Adam Scott; 3) Viktor Hovland; 4) Max Homa; 5) Byeong Hun An; 6) Wyndham Clark / Corey Conners; 8) Nicolai Hojgaard; 9) Jason Day; 10) Tommy Fleetwood / Taylor Moore; 12) Xander Schauffele; 13) Cam Young; 14) Jordan Spieth; 15) Scottie Scheffler; 16) Patrick Rodgers; 17) Keith Mitchell; 18) Tom Kim / Justin Thomas; 20) Keegan Bradley / Si Woo Kim; 22) Ludvig Aberg / Tony Finau / Seamus Power / Sahith Theegala.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 4) Kurt Kitayama / Collin Morikawa; 6) Corey Conners / Rory McIlroy / Justin Thomas; 9) Nicolai Hojgaard; 10) Adam Scott; 11) Tommy Fleetwood; 12) Viktor Hovland / Erik van Rooyen; 14) Max Homa; 15) Wyndham Clark; 16) Ludvig Aberg / Keegan Bradley / Tony Finau; 19) Matt Fitzpatrick / Nick Taylor; 21) Luke List / Brandon Wu; 23) Matthieu Pavon; 24) Emiliano Grillo / Nick Hardy / Cameron Young.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Justin Thomas; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Byeong Hun An; 4) Hideki Matsuyama; 5) Max Homa; 6) Xander Schauffele; 7) Tommy Fleetwood; 8) Viktor Hovland; 9) Lucas Glover / Rory McIlroy; 11) Scottie Scheffler; 12) Tony Finau; 13) Seamus Power; 14) Kurt Kitayama / Scottie Scheffler; 16) Matt Fitzpatrick; 17) Keegan Bradley / Nicolai Hojgaard; 19) Sepp Straka; 20) Wyndham Clark / Davis Riley; 22) Andrew Putnam; 23) Patrick Rodgers; 24) Mackenzie Hughes; 25) Russell Henley.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Byeong Hun An / Scottie Scheffler; 3) Max Homa; 4) Xander Schauffele / Justin Thomas; 6) Rory McIlroy; 7) Nicolai Hojgaard; 8) Corey Conners / Viktor Hovland / Jordan Spieth; 11) Tommy Fleetwood; 12) Tony Finau; 13) Wyndham Clark; 14) Adam Scott; 15) Kurt Kitayama; 16) Keegan Bradley / Hideki Matsuyama; 18) Russell Henley; 19) Luke List; 20) Ludvig Aberg / Matt Fitzpatrick / Tom Kim; 23) Patrick Rodgers; 24) Cam Young; 25) Matthieu Pavon / Brandon Wu.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Adam Scott; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Justin Thomas; 5) Sam Burns / Viktor Hovland / J.T. Poston; 8) Byeong Hun An; 9) Cam Davis / Rory McIlroy; 11) Nick Dunlap; 12) Keegan Bradley / Max Homa; 14) Matthieu Pavon; 15) Sepp Straka; 16) Ludvig Aberg; 17) Tommy Fleetwood / Taylor Moore / Patrick Rodgers / Nick Taylor; 21) Brendon Todd; 22) Andrew Putnam; 23) Ben Griffin / Nicolai Hojgaard; 25) Jason Day.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Byeong Hun An / Justin Thomas; 3) Jordan Spieth; 4) Adam Scott; 5) Nicolai Hojgaard / Rory McIlroy / Scottie Scheffler; 8) Max Homa / Xander Schauffele; 10) Viktor Hovland / J.T. Poston; 12) Matthieu Pavon; 13) Tommy Fleetwood; 14) Sam Burns; 15) Ludvig Aberg; 16) Tony Finau; 17) Beau Hossler; 18) Erik van Rooyen; 19) Russell Henley / Mackenzie Hughes / Andrew Putnam; 22) Kurt Kitayama / Patrick Rodgers; 24) Keegan Bradley / Ben Griffin / Adam Hadwin / Alex Noren.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners at the host Pebble Beach (was 36 holes prior to this year) since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this cliff-top, coastal short, Par 72:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2023, Justin Rose (-18). SG Off the Tee: 57th, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 14th.
• 2022, Tom Hoge (-19). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2021, Daniel Berger (-18). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 18th.
• 2020, Nick Taylor (-19). SG Off the Tee: 54th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 19th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2019, Phil Mickelson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 20th.
• 2018, Ted Potter Jnr (-17). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 24th.
• 2017, Jordan Spieth (-19). SG Off the Tee: 45th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 22nd, SG Putting: 4th.
• 2016, Vaughn Taylor (-17). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 52nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 33rd, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 17th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2023, Justin Rose (-18). 282 yards (45th), 65.5% fairways (44th), 69.4% greens in regulation (34th), 26’8″ proximity to hole (5th), 81.8% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2022, Tom Hoge (-19). 296 yards (27th), 69.1% fairways (35th), 77.8% greens in regulation (7th), 29’3″ proximity to hole (16th), 75.0 % scrambling (8th), 1.61 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2021, Daniel Berger (-18). 300 yards (8th), 71.4% fairways (32nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 26’2″ proximity to hole (2nd), 87.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (29th).
• 2020, Nick Taylor (-19). 292 yards (39th), 78.2% fairways (4th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 34’9″ proximity to hole (31st), 61.1 % scrambling (30th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2019, Phil Mickelson (-19). 276 yards (25th), 60.0% fairways (48th), 79.2% greens in regulation (8th), 29’6″ proximity to hole (6th), 53.3 % scrambling (51st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2018, Ted Potter Jnr (-17). 283 yards (67th), 76.4% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (9th), 26’1″ proximity to hole (2nd), 68.4 % scrambling (19th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2017, Jordan Spieth (-19). 284 yards (26th), 78.2% fairways (14th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 27’11” proximity to hole (10th), 73.3 % scrambling (8th), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2016, Vaughn Taylor (-17). 289 yards (40th), 69.1% fairways (38th), 75.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 25’3″ proximity to hole (3rd), 55.6 % scrambling (60th), 1.56 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2015, Brandt Snedeker (-22). 284 yards (48th), 70.9% fairways (38th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 27’11” proximity to hole (24th), 92.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (16th).
• 2014, Jimmy Walker (-11). 282 yards (22nd), 56.4% fairways (59th), 70.8% greens in regulation (6th), 35’6″ proximity to hole (26th), 81.0 % scrambling (2nd), 1.75 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2013, Brandt Snedeker (-19). 277 yards (41st), 78.2% fairways (14th), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 27’10” proximity to hole (19th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.64 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2012, Phil Mickelson (-17). 273 yards (58th), 61.8% fairways (62nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (5th), 29’1″ proximity to hole (11th), 77.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2011, D.A. Points (-15). 286 yards (40th), 80.4% fairways (9th), 69.4% greens in regulation (19th), 30’11” proximity to hole (15th), 50.0% scrambling (47th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2010, Dustin Johnson (-16). 303 yards (1st), 75.0% fairways (15th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), N/A proximity to hole, 35.7% scrambling (64th), 1.65 putts per GIR (7th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 35th, Driving Accuracy: 31st, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Proximity to Hole: 13th, Scrambling: 22nd, Putting Average 7th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am courses set-up plus what skill sets they favour:

Justin Rose 2023 [on Pebble Beach]: “Yeah, I mean, obviously it’s one of those places that you just come to and you feel inspired and you look around and you’re like, wow, what an amazing place to be. There’s a little bit of gratitude in you know, the fact that you’re actually enjoying being here I think always lends itself to playing well, and that’s not unique to me. Strategically I think this golf course has a lot to it. There’s a lot of angles, a lot of strategy. The greens are quite steep in certain areas. I think I read sloping putts pretty well. It’s probably a strength of mine. So I think some of those things stack up to why I’ve been able to do well here.

I missed the fairway on No. 1, which is really a bit of a cardinal sin. I missed it, well I’ve missed it twice with a 4-iron now this week, which is — but I’ve had a lot of tee shots this week where I’m between 5-wood and 4-iron, so I’m stretching the 4-iron. I’m trying to hit the 4-iron hard. So I felt like it’s been a good week to have had a 3-iron in the bag, to be honest with you. But that kind of led to a lie in the right-hand rough that came out a little bit quick. But I had to get it up and over the tree, so I had to swing hard. Actually from over the back of the green I hit an unbelievable chip shot which I thought was going to be – I didn’t think I could leave it short, but left it four, five feet short. Such a quick putt as well. I dribbled it down there a bit.

The long bunker shot on 6. No that’s not comfortable. First and foremost, it’s actually a really well-designed hole, first and foremost. The fairway’s huge, but the fact there’s a cliff on right those bunkers are just in the right place. They’re not too deep because they give you a shot. But you got to strike it. You know that if you catch it half an inch fat, you could be in the ravine dropping and making all sorts of trouble there. So, yeah, I was really just focused on putting the ball in the middle of my stance, making sure I hit the back of the ball. Obviously for it to climb up there to 6 feet was, there’s a little element of a nice hop, skip, and a bounce up there obviously.

But I did my part. I struck it, stayed out of trouble, committed to it. Because, yeah, it would have been easy to have played a different shot, just try to hit a high cut 7-iron up onto the top of the ridge, give myself a wedge shot, but I only had 214 to the front so the shot was on.”

Justin Rose 2023 [on Spyglass]: “I don’t know how the other courses, the more coastal courses have played today, but obviously I feel like Spyglass played very long out here today. You had to drive the ball well and I did that today. I feel like we do have quite a lot of wind forecast the next couple days, but I think both those courses are somewhat geared up for it. So this was the course today that wasn’t really sure how it would play in these types of conditions. But, yeah, looking forward to each course presents a different challenge, which makes the tournament fun.”

Tom Hoge 2022 [on Spyglass]: “Yeah, I guess first off I just love being at Spyglass I always enjoy playing there. It’s usually the first nine holes I go play is the back nine at Spyglass when I show up here. But it’s a hard golf course, I knew it was going to be a challenge today that some of the leaders had the easier golf courses, so I had to make some birdies to keep pace there.”

Tom Hoge 2022 [on Pebble Beach]: “I just feel like for me if I can just get the ball in play off the tee you don’t necessarily have to push it with drivers that much, but lay back a little bit and it’s definitely a second-shot golf course which I feel like is the strength of my game.”

“It was a tough grind out there. The wind was really tricky today getting the wind right and I had a few times I got frustrated, because I didn’t quite time it right and had some gusts and the wind switched directions, which led to that double on No5. But I hung in there really well, that wedge shot on 14 was really tough one getting the wind right there as well. So when I walked up and saw that I was pretty close to pin high there I was really happy. And to roll that putt in was great.”

Daniel Berger 2021 [on Spyglass]: “Yeah, I think this is the harder golf course for me so just to shoot 5-under here is a good round and anything under par here is a good round. Tomorrow if the wind blows it’s going to be much tougher here so I prefer to play over there at Pebble. But I’m in a good position. So I hit a lot of good shots today and putted really well and much improved from last week. It’s receptive here, it’s receptive there (Pebble Beach), but like I was saying, if the wind picks up tomorrow, it’s going to be much tougher here hitting shots through the trees and trying to figure out where the wind is. So I’m in a great position.”

Daniel Berger 2021 [on Pebble Beach]: “For someone that cuts the ball like myself, 18 tee actually, I feel like it’s a relatively easy tee shot because you can start it down the left in the water and you just cut it off the water. Yesterday I just kind of flared it. Today I stepped up there, and I wanted to be as aggressive as possible and I would rather go down swinging than making a conservative swing that doesn’t end up really well. Then the 3-wood was, like I was saying earlier, one of the best 3-woods in my life. I’ve always struggled with finding a good 3-wood. It’s either good off the tee or good off the deck, but this one I’ve really been comfortable with for a long time. I just try to be aggressive. I wanted to win the golf tournament. I didn’t want to lose it on the last. I just wanted to go out there and try to hit the best shot that I could and I wasn’t going to be conservative on the 3-wood coming in.”

“Yeah, you know, I think I’ve played it three times and I’ve had a 10th, a 5th, and now a victory. But I love Pebble Beach. Every time I’ve ever played it I wonder why I don’t come back more often, and this year was, I knew I was going to play it. I set it on my schedule early. I didn’t commit until kind of late, but I knew I was going to be here. It’s just a special place. Every time you step up to the tee, you just, you tend to take in the sights and sounds and don’t really focus on the golf as much and I think that’s kind of helpful for me.”

Nick Taylor [on Spyglass]:“ That’s the No. 1 thought on the range in the morning, the first ball, don’t thin it. But yeah, I had the cart gloves on, I had a beanie on this morning just trying to keep your hands warm as well as possible. The ball’s going much shorter which you have to factor in. They added a few tees on the par-5s out at Spyglass, so for me they’re borderline reachable, which kind of I feel a strength of my game is driving it straight and my woods into the green. So when I can’t really reach those it took away maybe a couple opportunities there. But it was cold, once the fog kind of went away a little bit, or the overcast, it warmed up a little bit, which was nice, but it was definitely cold this morning. I definitely putted well this week, which I think if you talk to anybody who has had average weeks then all of a sudden in contention to win, that’s usually a big reason. I’ve been driving it well for a long time. And this course being a hair shorter, I think it just suits my game a little bit better. I’m definitely not bomber but just putt well.”

Phil Mickelson [on Pebble]: “Yeah, I actually thought it was a successful round. It was difficult out there, especially around the turn there, 9, 10 — 8, 9, 10, and that was really the only point where I had a couple of bogeys and it was very difficult, but I was able to come back with a few birdies when it cleared up. And I thought anything in the 60s was going to be a heck of a round, and I was one shy. I just enjoy it here and I think the challenging conditions oftentimes comes into play. I think the grass and the little half shots to get back to some of these pins, a lot of guys struggle with and it’s been a strength of my game, so I’ve been able to make a few more birdies on some of these holes.”

Ted Potter Jnr [on Pebble]: “I was just trying to take one shot at a time, pick a small target on the fairway, pick a small target on the middle of the green. I knew I had a couple shot lead going into the back nine, so I knew that they were going to have to make some birdies and the back nine’s tough, especially with the wind how it is right now. So I just wanted to give myself plenty of opportunities coming in. I just tried not to attack the pins, but give myself good 20-footers to have a chance to make birdie.”

Jordan Spieth [on Pebble]: “Yeah, on this type of poa annua, it’s still going to be very soft and spinny. Even on this course I was hitting low 9-irons or 8-irons and they were coming backwards a few feet. Normally those skip five yards forward. So it’s very difficult to throw the ball with a lot of extra club and hit it low and land it back by the pin. It’s difficult to do because we almost never have to do it. So, very rarely do we actually practice it or can trust it in a tournament setting. Holes like number 4 today, when you’ve got to hit an 85 yard shot and you got to hit a gap wedge and fly it 85 when it’s normally just a perfect number for a 63 degree, it’s just an abnormal thing for us to do and to get our brains wrapped around. That’s going to stay that way. The course isn’t going to change much tomorrow, in my opinion. It’s just not getting hot enough, it’s still too early. But, yeah, so it will be kind of dart throwing contest again and who can make the putts. And Sneds has won here I think twice and I think we’re playing with him. He’s going to be somebody who can very easily, I mean, I say very easily, but he’s somebody who can go out there and shoot 7-, 8-under tomorrow. So, I’ve got to set a goal and stay real patient, try not to make many mistakes, hit a lot of greens in regulation.”

Justin Rose [on Spyglass]: “That was actually my first look at Spyglass. I came out here the other day and went around a couple of holes checking it out, but I picked the wrong one not to play, because it’s a pretty tough course. There’s some strong holes on it. And I heard some strange reports about Spyglass, like the first few holes are great then it disappears into the hills and it’s not that good. That’s not what I saw. That’s a pretty stellar golf course to me and really enjoyed playing it. All the courses in the rotation have impressed me this year.”

Brandt Snedeker: “I love the greens here, I love the golf courses, the greens are poa annua, which I’m a big fan of. And I love the format. I have played the last four years with a good friend. To come out here and play these golf courses, this year, you’re not going to get a better conditioned golf course, perfect weather, everything has been ideal and there’s not a better place to be in the country right now than right here and this tournament. So I have a lot of fun when I come out here and it’s a fun feeling when you’re playing good out on the West Coast.”

Jordan Spieth: “I enjoy the pro am part of it. Even though it’s a long round, we get good food, it’s a nice change of pace, good food, you’re kind of laughing down the fairways. It’s like you’re playing around on the weekend. Some guys don’t like the pace of play or a lot of guys just don’t like poa annua greens, guys that grew up on Bermuda grew up in the south or even guys that grew up in the northeast are used to primarily bent grass or Bermuda grass and they, three different golf courses all with poa annua that maybe they think putt a little different. It’s just a tough adjustment when you get in Monday night or something to try and get to know the places that week really quickly. Whether it’s that, whether it’s the changing around a few golf courses or it’s the slow rounds, not sure. I certainly really like this golf course and a lot of the legends of the game have liked these courses.”

Jimmy Walker: “I don’t mind the format. The format’s great. I’ve enjoyed all my partners I’ve ever had here. I think everybody that’s here is a good person. I’ve had some good players. We have done well in the past team wise, too. So, you know the rounds are going to be a little longer. But there’s no better place to hang out on a golf course for five and a half, six hours if the weather’s good it’s really nice. If it’s bad it’s a little dicey, but I think it’s a cool format. I enjoy playing golf with friends at home and I’ve made some pretty good friends out here doing the pro am stuff. You just got to get over the fact that it’s going to take awhile. A lot of guys don’t like it.”

Incoming form of AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners since 2010:

• Justin Rose: 18th Torrey/26th PGA West/29th RSM Classic/9th Houston.
• Tom Hoge: MC Torrey/2nd PGA West/MC Waialae/4th RSM Classic.
• Daniel Berger: MC TPC Scottsdale/7th Waialae/10th ToC/23rd Mayakoba.
• Nick Taylor: 49th TPC Scottsdale/MC PGA West/32nd Waialae/MC RSM Classic.
• Phil Mickelson: MC TPC Scottsdale/2nd PGA West/17th Silverado/30th Tour Champ.
• Ted Potter Jnr: 73rd Torrey/MC PGA West/MC Waialae/13th RSM Classic.
• Jordan Spieth: 9th TPC Scottsdale/3rd Waialae/3rd Kapalua/3rd World Challenge.
• Vaughn Taylor: MC Columbia/MC Sea Island/20th Sanderson/24th web.com TC.
• Brandt Snedeker: 19th Torrey/10th TPC Scottsdale/MC PGA West/10th HSBC.
• Jimmy Walker: MC Torrey/1st Waialae/21st Kapalua/46th HSBC.
• Brandt Snedeker: 2nd TPC Scottsdale/2nd Torrey/23rd PGA West/3rd Kapalua.
• Phil Mickelson: 26th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/49th PGA West.
• D.A. Points: 22nd TPC Scottsdale/8th Torrey/42nd PGA West.
• Dustin Johnson: 3rd Riviera/MC Torrey/16th Waialae/16th Kapalua.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 5 – Rory McIlroy.
• 4 – Jason Day, Max Homa.
• 3 – Collin Morikawa.
• 2 – Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Nick Taylor.
• 1 – Patrick Cantlay, Cam Davis, Harris English, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, Viktor Hovland, Matt Kuchar, Luke List, Hideki Matsuyama, Matthieu Pavon, Andrew Putnam, Xander Schauffele, Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Erik van Rooyen.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is always a memorable tournament, although the coverage can be extremely painful to watch. Recent winners include Tiger Woods, Davis Love III (x2), Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson (x5), Dustin Johnson (x2), Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker (x2), Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Justin Rose with Matt Gogel, Aaron Oberholser, Steve Lowery, D.A. Points, Vaughn Taylor, Ted Potter Jnr, Nick Taylor and Tom Hoge thrown in for good measure.

My take on the tournament is that a number of elite players always seem to contend – even more likely in this elevated event format – and in most cases quality vanquishes the lesser opposition, but in the case of Lowery, Points, Taylor (of the Vaughn variety), Potter Jnr, Taylor (of the Nick variety) and Hoge, they defeated Vijay Singh, Hunter Mahan, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth respectively to capture their career biggest tournament titles.

Experience at Pebble Beach is another key factor. Dustin Johnson’s win here in 2009 came on only his second appearance at the tournament, but his liking for the format was already plain to see as he’d finished 7th on debut the previous year. Johnson went on to defend his title in 2010 and since then players with 4, 16, 6, 6, 7, 8, 4, 3, 21, 5, 2, 7 and 3 previous appearances have triumphed. The specialist nature of golf here can be seen in the fact that every winner here since Aaron Oberholser (2006) had delivered a top 21 finish at Pebble prior to their victory. That link continued again with 25/1 chance Justin Rose 12 months ago, who in 3 AT&T visits had finished 6th prior to capturing his AT&T victory. A close association with Torrey Pines can’t be overlooked either, although it is not essential, or the liking for the west coast swing in general.

Taking that last statement a step further, going back to Dustin Johnson the 2009 and 2010 champion, he’d already finished 10th at Waialae, 12th at PGA West and 7th at Pebble Beach in his rookie season of 2008 before triumphing here in consecutive years. The 2010 victory came off a 3rd at Riviera. D.A. Points had a liking for Torrey Pines with 2 top-9 finishes and an 8th in San Diego prior to winning this. Phil Mickelson in 2012 had won 17 times on the west coast including 3 Pebble National titles. Brandt Snedeker had won at Torrey Pines and had a number of high West Coast finishes across Kapalua, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale and a top 10 in the U.S. Open here, whilst Jordan Spieth had won at Kapalua and had finished 4th and 7th here prior to his 2017 victory. Even Vaughn Taylor had captured both of his 2 PGA Tour titles at Montreux in Nevada and had a strong profile of finishes across Kapalua, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale and a top 10 here at Pebble Beach, although anyone picking him out to win this at 300/1 hopefully bought a lottery ticket the same week!

Ted Potter Jnr takes this to even more extremes, but look at his history and there are some west coast positive results hidden away. 13th at Waialae (2012), 16th at Pebble Beach and 10th at Riviera (both in 2013). Nick Taylor was similar to Potter but had finished 10th here at Pebble (2017) and 9th (2017) at Silverado.

Daniel Berger had 10th and 5th here at Pebble Beach with 10th at Kapalua, 7th at Waialae plus 3 top-10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale as supporting west coast form. Tom Hoge had finished 12th here in 2021 prior to winning in 2022 and had supporting west coast form of 3rd (2018) at Waialae, 6th (2020) and 2nd (2022) at PGA West, with 5th (2020) at Torrey Pines.

And defending champion Justin Rose had finished 6th at the AT&T in 2016, plus 3rd at the 2019 Pebble-hosted U.S. Open. Naturally he’d also won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in 2019 – with 3 additional top-8 finishes in La Jolla, plus 2nd at Waialae in 2017.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:35GMT 29.1.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.