Course Guide: The tiny island of Bermuda has the biggest concentration of golf courses on the planet, with 7 courses packed into 21 square miles.
The Bermuda Championship takes places at Port Royal Golf Course, which hosted the PGA Grand Slam of Golf from 2009 – 2014, organised by the PGA of America, where the 4 reigning Major champions came here to compete in October. And the PGA Tour now visits annually, with the 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship offering a full 500 FedEx Cup points plus invites to the 2022 Tournament of Champions and Masters Tournament.
Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda: Designer: Robert Trent Jones 1970, with Roger Rulewich renovation 2009; Course Type: Coastal, Resort; Par: 71; Length: 6,828 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda with Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimpmeter 11ft. Scoring Average: 2019: 69.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 28 of 41 courses. 2020: 71.15 (+0.15), Difficulty Rank 19 of 51 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Trent Jones designs include:
Trent Jones
- Bellerive – 2018 PGA Championship
- Firestone South – WGC Bridgestone Invitational
- Hazeltine – 2009 PGA Championship
- Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
- Robert Trent Jones Golf Club – 2015 Congressional Loans National
- Valderrama – 2002 – 2008 Volvo Masters, 2010-11 Andalucía Masters, 2016 Open de Espana, 2017 – 2020 Andalucía Valderrama Masters
Course Overview: Port Royal Golf Course is a short Par 71 set on the Atlantic coastline of Bermuda. It has a 36/35 split, with the front 9 featuring a couple of reachable par-5s.
The course reminds me a little of El Camaleon in Mexico, which we’ll be visiting next week for the Mayakoba event, in the respect that both are short and have contrasting elements to the course. Other players mention the Plantation Course on Maui as a correlating course, not for length, but purely for the undulations involved across the course. A tree-less Harbour Town was Boo Weekley’s assessment.
Here at Port Royal the first 6 holes are played away from the coastline, protected partially against the wind, set in a low point. Most of the holes are guarded by trees earlier on, and it gives the appearance of a tropical inland golf course. With a genuine par-5 (2nd hole) and what in effect is a long par-4 (517 yards) playing as a par-5 (7th hole), this is the section of the course where scoring is essential, especially as there are 3 attackable par-4s as well. From the 7th green onwards through the 10th hole, the course opens out onto the coast, with no protection from the wind. This again is the case across the closing 5-hole stretch of the 14th through the 18th.
The back 9 has a couple of stretching par-3s (13th and 16th) both measuring 235 yards, with the 17th par-5 at 501 yards being a huge eagle opportunity, if you can avoid the fairway bunkers and water all the way down the left-hand side. From an overall perspective, players here mention huge elevation changes across the course and a number of isolated tee boxes. The course itself features Bermudagrass throughout and TifEagle Bermudagrass greens. When the PGA Grand Slam of Golf came here, the course also featured rough which was described as penal enough to cause problems with approach shots in terms of distance control. Jim Furyk describes this course back at the 2014 Grand Slam as not being about power. Instead it’s a test where both course and wind management are critical.
Jim has been proved right over the first 2 renewals with winners Brendon Todd and Brian Gay. However they mixed it with longer hitters such as Wyndham Clark, Harry Higgs and Scottie Scheffler at the top of the leaderboard. All shapes and sizes can compete here, with Brendon and Scottie both firing course record 62s. With receptive greens and little rough, Todd won this by 4 shots at -24/260, but as ever with coastal golf, if the wind blows here then the track gets tougher, with Brian Gay’s winning total some 9 shots higher.
Winners: 2020: Brian Gay (-15); 2019: Brendon Todd (-24).
Cut Line: 2020: +1; 2019: -2
Lead Score Progression:
- 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -15.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -24.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Ryan Armour, Adam Hadwin, Denny McCarthy, Russell Knox, Brian Stuard, David Hearn, Hank Lebioda and Nick Taylor.
Winners & Prices: 2020: Gay 200/1; 2019: Todd 100/1.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
- 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind SW 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 12-18 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Wind ESE at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind E 12-22 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind SE 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 79. Wind ESE 10-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Southampton, Bermuda, is here.
As you would expect with a tropical island in the north Atlantic, precipitation can be a feature here in Bermuda with tropical storms, and if forecasts are to be believed the course should receive quite a deluge of rain on Monday, so I’m expecting cut in the fairways and receptive greens. The latter is almost assured on the PGA Tour these days, but with 20-25 mph westerly winds set for Friday and Sunday, expect soft greens. Temperatures will be a pleasant 23-25 degrees Celsius throughout.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Tour Championship / Italian Open which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Austin Smotherman; 2) Mito Pereira; 3) Joseph Bramlett; 4) Hayden Buckley / David Lipsky; 6) Nick Hardy / Matthias Schwab / Callum Tarren; 9) Lucas Glover; 10) Matt Fitzpatrick / Taylor Pendrith; 12) Seth Reeves; 13) Lee Hodges / Sahith Theegala; 15) Patrick Rodgers; 16) Anirban Lahiri; 17) Peter Uihlein; 18) Scott Stallings; 19) Ryan Armour / Dylan Wu; 21) Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Austin Cook; 23) Danny Willett; 24) Denny McCarthy / Aaron Rai.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Mito Pereira; 2) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 3) Chase Seiffert; 4) Nick Hardy; 5) Chad Ramey; 6) Lucas Glover / Mark Hubbard; 8) Matthew NeSmith; 9) Jason Dufner / Peter Malnati; 11) Hayden Buckley; 12) Sahith Theegala; 13) Michael Gligic / Scott Gutschewski; 15) Ben Martin; 16) Vaughn Taylor; 17) Seung-yul Noh; 18) Aaron Rai / Davis Riley; 20) Joseph Bramlett; 21) Russell Knox; 22) Adam Hadwin; 23) Hank Lebioda; 24) Dawie van der Walt; 25) Garrick Higgo.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Jim Knous; 2) Beau Hossler; 3) Chase Seiffert; 4) Danny Willett; 5) Brian Gay; 6) Mark Hubbard / Stephan Jaeger; 8) Sahith Theegala; 9) Luke Donald; 10) Adam Hadwin; 11) Scott Brown; 12) Lucas Herbert; 13) Taylor Pendrith; 14) Camilo Villegas; 15) Peter Malnati; 16) Alex Smalley; 17) Ben Kohles; 18) Aaron Rai; 19) Austin Cook / Anirban Lahiri; 21) Patrick Reed / Vaughn Taylor; 23) Jason Dufner / Brian Stuard / Dawie van der Walt.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Mito Pereira; 2) Austin Smotherman; 3) Jim Knous; 4) Sahith Theegala; 5) Nick Hardy; 6) Hayden Buckley; 7) Chase Seiffert; 8) Jason Dufner; 9) Christiaan Bezuidenhout. 10) Joseph Bramlett / Mark Hubbard / Danny Willett; 13) Aaron Rai; 14) Lucas Glover / Peter Malnati; 16) Chad Ramey; 17) Russell Knox; 18) Matthias Schwab / Dawie van der Walt; 20) Patrick Rodgers; 21) Lee Hodges; 22) Matt Fitzpatrick / Matthew NeSmith; 24) Alex Smalley; 25) David Lipsky / Vaughn Taylor.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Beau Hossler; 3) Jim Knous; 4) Michael Kim; 5) Sean O’Hair; 6) Peter Uihlein; 7) Matt Fitzpatrick / Patrick Rodgers; 9) Paul Barjon; 10) Bo Hoag; 11) Matthias Schwab; 12) Taylor Pendrith; 13) Adam Hadwin; 14) Nick Watney; 15) Patrick Reed; 16) Dawie van der Walt; 17) Seamus Power; 18) Brian Gay / Nick Taylor; 20) Stephan Jaeger; 21) Brandon Hagy / Lucas Herbert; 23) Scott Stallings / Curtis Thompson; 25) Hayden Buckley.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 2) Jim Knous; 3) Beau Hossler; 4) Mito Pereira; 5) Matthias Schwab; 6) Patrick Rodgers; 7) Nick Hardy / Mark Hubbard; 9) Hayden Buckley / Matt Fitzpatrick; 11) Sahith Theegala / Dawie van der Walt / Nick Watney; 14) Paul Barjon / Taylor Pendrith; 16) Jason Dufner / Adam Hadwin; 18) Danny Willett; 19) Peter Uihlein; 20) Dylan Wu; 21) Seamus Power; 22) Aaron Rai / Chad Ramey; 24) Seth Reeves; 25) Luke Donald.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the last 2 Bermuda winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2020, Brian Gay (-15). 288 yards (38th), 58.9% fairways (4th), 69.4% greens in regulation (15th), 72.7% scrambling (16th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
- 2019, Brendon Todd (-24). 303 yards (51st), 69.6% fairways (4th), 76.4% greens in regulation (10th), 82.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.55 putts per GIR (3rd).
Averages:
- Driving Distance: 45th, Driving Accuracy: 4th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Scrambling: 10th, Putting Average 5th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Port Royal Golf Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Brian Gay (2020): “It reminds me actually, walking around, kind of walking around Maui is what it reminds me of Yeah, I played good here last year, tied for third, so coming back had good thoughts and memories of last year. Love playing on Bermudagrass, grew up on it, live in Florida, so that’s good, I love putting on Bermuda. Just good thoughts here.
It’s not a long golf course. It’s a golf course where I get a lot of short clubs and you can’t really overpower the golf course. It keeps the shorter hitters in the game, everybody has a chance here.”
Brendon Todd (2019): “I mean, this golf course is good for me. It’s one of the shorter ones we play on the Tour and it forces everybody to hit the ball with the same clubs off the tee because there’s cross bunkers in certain places. The good thing about that for me is, I’m hitting the same clubs into the greens as everybody else and for some reason that tends to work out well in my favour. So the course is good for me, for my game, and I’ve been swinging well. These greens are grainy, they’re a little bit slow, so you’re always kind of guessing whether it’s two balls or three balls, how hard to hit it. I think everybody’s battling it a little bit, but it’s also why the scores are low, it helps the ball stop close to the hole and you can ram a few in.”
Rob Oppenheim (2019): “A lot of hills, for sure. You know, the wind makes this course, completely changes the course. I got here Monday, played and it was a complete different wind, so this course is very dictated by the wind direction and how much wind. So today it was, I think, the easier wind. It wasn’t up as much as it was the last two days, so you can see there’s some pretty good scores out there. And the greens are in great shape, so I think it’s definitely, they’re receptive as well, so if you’re in the fairway, you can attack it.”
Brian Gay: “It reminds me actually, walking around, kind of walking around Maui is what it reminds me of.”
Martin Kaymer: “There are a couple very difficult holes where you can really screw up, where you can make big numbers. When you take 16, for example. But I think when you play on that grass, that Bermuda grass, it’s very important to hit good tee shots. It’s very difficult to judge distances from the first cut, from the rough, so I think the key is really to hit as many fairways as possible. But again, tee shots and then give yourself as many chances as possible. The wind, we all know, is going to be a factor. Playing on an island, it’s not a big surprise. We all have done that in the past, we all know how that works.
Yeah, when you’re standing on that 10th tee box, you know the next four or five holes are going to be difficult, because there are some tricky tee shots, a lot of elevations as well, especially when you’re standing on the 11th fairway and you have to hit it down to the green. It’s very difficult to judge the yardage or to judge the wind more and therefore to judge the yardage. So the back nine, that’s definitely more challenging than the front nine. The first six, seven holes, they’re important that you take advantage of them, that you make at least two or three birdies. That helps for the back nine.”
Jim Furyk: “Not at all. 17th is very reachable for me. The 7th is an iron shot for me in for a second shot. The only hole that I might give up ground on, is No. 2. But, I just played the fives really poorly. I drove it bad on 7, I did hit a bad drive there. A bad second shot on 17. I hit a good bunker shot, missed the putt. Hit a bad wedge into No. 2. I had it laid up perfect. No, I didn’t take advantage of the 5’s, but it’s not really the yardage. Two of them are very, very short. They’re long par-4s, really. Then the second hole is not going to be reachable for me unless it gets real downwind. But, I need to do a little better job with my wedge game. It’s not a power, this golf course, power has nothing to do with playing well on this golf course. I realized those three are all very long, but they’re also very good at scoring. Bubba can hit a lot of shots and work it into the wind. Rory’s obviously able to do that, being the No. 1 player in the world. And Martin is a good ball-striker. So, the power isn’t part of it, but they can move the ball better than I did today.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Bermuda Championship winners:
- 2020 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 12th, Round 3: 5th.
- 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 25th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the winners of the Bermuda Championship and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2020 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 2 back.
Incoming form of winners since 2019:
- Brian Gay: MC Shriners/MC Safeway/MC Northern Trust / MC Wyndham.
- Brendon Todd: 28th Houston/MC Shriners/MC Safeway/MC Sanderson Farms.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2019. For full first round leader stats click here.
- 2020 – Malnati -8/63 – AM Wave – 66/1
- 2019 – Scheffler -9/62 – AM Wave – 35/1
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 4 – Brian Gay, Patrick Reed.
- 3 – Camilo Villegas.
- 2 – Ben Crane, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Matt Every, Fabian Gomez.
- 1 – Ryan Armour, Jason Bohn, Jonathan Byrd, Austin Cook, Tommy Gainey, Robert Garrigus, Adam Hadwin, Garrick Higgo, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, Carl Pettersson, Andres Romero, John Senden, Heath Slocum, Scott Stallings, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Johnson Wagner, Nick Watney.
We only have 2 renewals of the Bermuda Championship to work from. One (2019) featured very scoring friendly conditions, the other (2020) featured plenty of wind – hence the winning totals were 9 shots apart.
What is apparent is that Port Royal does not discriminate. Long bombers such as Wyndham Clark, Ollie Schniederjans, Harry Higgs and Scottie Scheffler all contended but eventually were beaten by experienced, short-game specialists in Brian Gay and Brendon Todd. All shapes and sizes can compete here, with Brendon Todd and Scottie Scheffler both firing course record 62s. Not overly helpful.
Trends change, but to this point Brendon Todd won this at 100/1 in 2019, with Brian Gay even more left-field at 200/1 in 2020. Todd was ranked 525th in the OWGR and his last top 10 finish on the PGA Tour has been at the 2015 Greenbrier Classic. Brian Gay was ranked 328th in the OWGR and his previous top 10 has been 3rd here in Bermuda 12 months earlier.
My selections are as follows:
Bermuda Championship – Featured Bookmaker:
