Bermuda Championship Tips 2022

Congratulations if you were on-board Rory McIlroy at 8/1 last week, as he became World Number 1 yet again. It was the Northern Irishman’s 23rd PGA Tour victory and his 8th on Bermudagrass greens. We landed yet another 2nd place finish in the form of Kurt Kitayama with a full each-way payout at 90/1, plus a slither of additional return from Sam Burns who was T7 (with 4 others) at 28/1.

This week we move from South Carolina to the North Atlantic for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. In 2019 this was an alternate event, but for the third year a win here delivers 500 FedEx Cup points, a full 2-year exemption, an invite to the 2023 Tournament of Champions and Masters, plus an event record $6.5 million prize fund. So for those flying into Bermuda this week, all have the opportunity to grab a PGA Tour victory and, more importantly, full playing privileges until the close of season 2024/25.

Traditionally one of the weakest fields of the Fall Schedule on the PGA Tour, this week’s field sees Adrian Meronk, Denny McCarthy, Erik van Rooyen and Lucas Glover in attendance.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Bermuda Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Get up to 12 places each way on the Bermuda Championship with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf.

bet365 have recently launched their innovative ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf, following on from its success on horse racing over the past few years.

• bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.

The number of Each Way Extra places offered on an event can be viewed on the Each Way Extra coupon or on the bet slip as per the example below:

Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 15:00BST 24.10.22, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

To access the different options and odds, simply select the ‘Each Way Extra’ market from the selected golf coupon to see the additional place terms that are available on your chosen event before the first group tees off. Once you’ve selected a price and the corresponding number of places from the Each Way Extra coupon, it will then appear on your bet slip.

If you don’t have a bet365 sports account then customers who sign up with bet365 via Golf Betting System receive their up to £30 in free bets account opening offer using bonus code SPORT30:

Course Guide: The tiny island of Bermuda has the biggest concentration of golf courses on the planet, with 7 courses packed into 21 square miles. The Bermuda Championship takes places at Port Royal Golf Course, which hosted the PGA Grand Slam of Golf from 2009 – 2014, organised by the PGA of America, where the 4 reigning Major champions came here to compete in October. And the PGA Tour now visits annually, with the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship offering a full 500 FedEx Cup points, plus invites to the 2023 Tournament of Champions and Masters Tournament.

Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda: Designer: Robert Trent Jones 1970, with Roger Rulewich renovation 2009; Course Type: Coastal, Resort; Par: 71; Length: 6,828 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda with Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimpmeter 11ft. Scoring Average: 2019: 69.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 28 of 41 courses. 2020: 71.15 (+0.15), Difficulty Rank 19 of 51 courses. 2021: 70.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 17 of 50 courses.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Trent Jones designs include:

Trent Jones

• Bellerive – 2018 PGA Championship
• Firestone South – WGC Bridgestone Invitational
• Hazeltine – 2009 PGA Championship
• Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
• Robert Trent Jones Golf Club – 2015 Congressional Loans National
• Valderrama – 2002 – 2008 Volvo Masters, 2010-11 Andalucía Masters, 2016 Open de Espana, 2017 – 2022 Andalucía Valderrama Masters

Overview: Port Royal Golf Course is a short Par 71 set on the Atlantic coastline of Bermuda. It has a 36/35 split, with the front 9 featuring a couple of reachable par-5s. The course reminds me a little of El Camaleon in Mexico, which we will be visiting next week for the Mayakoba event, in the respect that both are short and have contrasting elements to the course. Other players mention the Plantation Course on Maui as a correlating course, not for length, but purely for the undulations involved across the course. A tree-less Harbour Town has been quoted as well.

Here at Port Royal, the first 6 holes are played away from the coastline, protected partially against the wind, set in a low point. Most of the holes are guarded by trees earlier on, and it gives the appearance of a tropical inland golf course. With a genuine par-5 (2nd hole) and what in effect is a long par-4 (517 yards) playing as a par-5 (7th hole), this is the section of the course where scoring is essential, especially as there are 3 attackable par-4s as well. From the 7th green onwards through the 10th hole, the course opens out onto the coast, with no protection from the wind. This again is the case across the closing 5-hole stretch of the 14th through the 18th.

The back 9 has a couple of stretching par-3s (13th and 16th), both measuring 235 yards, with the 17th par-5 at 501 yards being a huge eagle opportunity if you can avoid the fairway bunkers and water all the way down the left-hand side. From an overall perspective, players here mention huge elevation changes across the course and a number of isolated tee boxes. The course itself features Bermudagrass throughout and TifEagle Bermudagrass greens. When the PGA Grand Slam of Golf came here, the course also featured rough which was described as penal enough to cause problems with approach shots in terms of distance control. Jim Furyk describes this course back at the 2014 Grand Slam as not being about power. Instead it’s a test where both course and wind management are critical.

And Jim has been proved partially right over the first 3 renewals with winners Brendon Todd and Brian Gay. However a longer hitter in Lucas Herbert won this last year across a renewal which was dominated by long hitters.

Fact is, all shapes and sizes can compete here. As ever with coastal golf, winning score will be based on whether the wind blows. If the wind blows here, the track gets tougher, with Herbert’s and Gay’s winning total some 9 shots higher than Brandon Todd’s -24/260 in 2019.

Bermuda Championship Winners: 2021: Lucas Herbert (-15); 2020: Brian Gay (-15); 2019: Brendon Todd (-24).

OWGR of Winners: 2021: Herbert 57; 2020: Gay 328; 2019: Todd 525.

Cut Line: 2021: E; 2020: +1; 2019: -2

Lead Score Progression:

• 2021: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -15.
• 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -15.
• 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -24.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Denny McCarthy, Chesson Hadley, Seamus Power, S.H. Kim, Adrian Meronk, Patrick Rodgers, Brian Gay, Scott Piercy, Byeong Hun An and Thomas Detry.

Bermuda Championship Winners & Prices: 2021: Herbert 80/1; 2020: Gay 200/1; 2019: Todd 100/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy and scattered showers. High of 79. Wind W 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Due to high winds and a rainstorm, play was suspended at 12:38 p.m. and players were held in place before resuming at 12:43 p.m. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 6:34 p.m. with 13 players remaining. Friday: Wind WNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. High of 80. Wind S 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 79. Wind SW 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 12:07 p.m. and players were held in place before resuming at 12:18 p.m.
• 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind SW 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 12-18 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Wind ESE at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind E 12-22 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind SE 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 79. Wind ESE 10-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Southampton, Bermuda, is here.

As you would expect with a tropical island in the north Atlantic, precipitation can be a feature here in Bermuda with tropical storms. And if forecasts are to be believed the course should receive quite a deluge of rain on Monday, and it’s worth noting that Hurricane Fiona hit Bermuda in late September. I’d expect quite lush turf. Indeed the forecast for this week looks bad with high chances of thunder across all 4 days of competition. Winds of 15-20 mph from different directions look to also be a factor, except for Thursday which looks wet, but calm. Temperatures will be a standard for Bermuda 24-25 degrees Celsius throughout.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Made in Himmerland, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Kevin Yu; 2) Cody Gribble; 3) Adrian Meronk / Cameron Percy / Patrick Rodgers; 6) Will Gordon; 7) S.H. Kim; 8) Brandon Matthews; 9) Trevor Cone; 10) Joseph Bramlett / Harrison Endycott / Ben Taylor; 13) Austin Eckroat; 14) Zecheng Dou / Lucas Glover; 16) Brandon Wu; 17) Byeong Hun An / Justin Lower / Matti Schmid; 20) Aaron Baddeley / Alex Smalley; 22) M.J. Daffue / Brent Grant; 24) Seamus Power; 25) Greyson Sigg.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Nick Hardy; 2) Brian Stuard; 3) Sam Ryder; 4) Hank Lebioda; 5) Ben Martin; 6) Mark Hubbard; 7) Adam Schenk; 8) Russell Knox / Chris Stroud; 10) M.J. Daffue / Lucas Glover / Sung Kang; 13) Nick Taylor / Kevin Yu; 15) Will Gordon / Chesson Hadley; 17) Ben Griffin; 18) Cody Gribble / Robby Shelton; 20) Aaron Rai; 21) Justin Lower / William McGirt; 23) Matti Schmid; 24) Brandon Matthews / Austin Smotherman.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1)  Stephan Jaeger / Peter Malnati; 3) William McGirt; 4) Byeong Hun An; 5) Robby Shelton; 6) Seamus Power; 7) Ben Griffin; 8) Russell Knox; 9) Cody Gribble / Mark Hubbard; 11) Charley Hoffman; 12) Trevor Werbylo; 13) Tyson Alexander; 14) Luke Donald; 15) Denny McCarthy; 16) Aaron Baddeley / Dylan Wu; 18) Scott Piercy; 19) Austin Cook / Justin Lower / Nick Taylor; 22) Cameron Percy; 23) Harry Hall / Brandon Wu; 25) Kevin Yu.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Kevin Yu; 2) Cody Gribble; 3) Mark Hubbard; 4) Cam Percy; 5) Ben Griffin; 6) Will Gordon / Nick Taylor; 8) Joseph Bramlett / Nick Hardy; 10) Byeong Hun An; 11) Russell Knox; 12) Robby Shelton; 13) Justin Lower; 14) Aaron Baddeley; 15) M.J. Daffue / William McGirt; 17) Adam Schenk; 18) Thomas Detry; 19) Stephan Jaeger / Adrian Meronk; 21) Denny McCarthy / Patrick Rodgers; 23) Dylan Wu; 24) Austin Cook / Brian Stuard.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Harry Hall; 2) Brice Garnett; 3) S.H. Kim; 4) Greyson Sigg; 5) Justin Lower / William McGirt; 7) Adam Long / Alex Smalley; 9) Sam Ryder; 10) Aaron Baddeley; 11) Seamus Power; 12) Callum Tarren; 13) Cameron Percy / Brian Stuard; 15) Robby Shelton; 16) Kevin Chappell / Mark Hubbard; 18) Thomas Detry / Peter Malnati; 20) Chris Stroud; 21) Stephan Jaeger; 22) Eric Cole / Aaron Rai; 24) Erik van Rooyen / Austin Smotherman.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Justin Lower; 2) William McGirt; 3) Cameron Percy; 4) S.H. Kim; 5) Cody Gribble / Mark Hubbard; 7) Robby Shelton; 8) Thomas Detry / Greyson Sigg; 10) Aaron Baddeley; 11) Will Gordon; 12) Stephan Jaeger /  Brian Stuard; 14) Adrian Meronk; 15) Sam Ryder; 16) Nick Taylor; 17) Denny McCarthy; 18) Adam Schenk; 19) Byeong Hun An / Russell Knox; 21) Seamus Power / Patrick Rodgers; 23) Aaron Rai / Alex Smalley; 25) Joseph Bramlett / Brice Garnett / Kevin Yu.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 3 Bermuda winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2021, Lucas Herbert (-15). 286 yards (7th), 51.8% fairways (53rd), 62.5% greens in regulation (58th), 77.8% scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2020, Brian Gay (-15). 288 yards (38th), 58.9% fairways (4th), 69.4% greens in regulation (15th), 72.7% scrambling (16th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2019, Brendon Todd (-24). 303 yards (51st), 69.6% fairways (4th), 76.4% greens in regulation (10th), 82.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.55 putts per GIR (3rd).

Driving Distance: 32nd, Driving Accuracy: 20th, Greens in Regulation: 28th, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 6th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the Port Royal Golf Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Lucas Herbert (2021): “Yeah, it wasn’t looking like the best day on the planet there on the 8th walking off the tee when we were all like huddled under umbrellas on the ground because I don’t think I’ve ever seen any sort of weather or rain or whatever you want to call that coming in, that was brutal. Yeah, to survive all that, I’m very proud.

Yeah, I felt like I grinded really well early and I had the right attitude going into the day that it wasn’t going to be easy. Obviously on the range it was, I don’t think we even hit drivers on the range because just couldn’t hit it, it was just pointless, so you just knew it was going to be one of those days where you had to battle really, really hard. Under par was going to be a great score. I couldn’t go and expect to finish at 20 under par or anything like that, you just had to grind through. Yeah, there was going to be some holes where it was going to die down a little bit and give you a chance, just had to kind of take your chances on those when you did get them.

Matt Fitzpatrick (2021): “Yeah, it’s tough. The elevation is a lot around this golf course. Me and my caddie definitely noticed it this morning walking up and down the hills, it was tiring. I think it’s one that you’ve got to, certainly the second shots that are up the hill that are pretty blind, you’ve really got to know where you’re hitting it. You’ve got to pick good targets and got to be very disciplined, you can’t get too aggressive. I think in terms of the elevation, you’ve got to be in control of your ball flight and know your numbers and distances, where to hit and where not to. I think there’s a lot of mental stuff involved and you’ve really got to think your way around. I think for me, I enjoy that part of the game, it’s a challenge. And you’ve got to be on it for 72 holes, so I’m looking forward to that.”

Taylor Pendrith (2021): “It was two different days, for sure. You know, yesterday was some of the worst weather I’ve ever played in and just almost like surviving out there. Didn’t really matter how you hit it, you just have to hit shots. Today was a completely different story. I knew I was putting good. I hit a close one on 1 and then I think every other putt after that was, you know, 10-plus footers and a couple 20-footers, which was nice to see go in. I feel like I’ve been putting pretty well leading up to this event and just haven’t really been making many, so to see some longer ones go in gave me a lot of confidence.

On 17  I hit driver. Yesterday was straight downwind and blowing a lot. I hit driver and a sand wedge to a foot. I figured I’m going to hit driver; if I pull it in the water, I’m going to drop it at 120 yards and hit a wedge on the green and can still make birdie that way. But it sets up good for me with the wind slightly off the right. Hit driver again today and hit pitching wedge to eight feet, was in the right rough. And yeah, I don’t know, I thought about hitting iron there, but it’s pretty wide where my drive lands, so like I said, if I do tug it and it goes in the water, I’ve got a wedge for my third anyways”

Brian Gay (2020): “It reminds me actually, walking around, kind of walking around Maui is what it reminds me of Yeah, I played good here last year, tied for third, so coming back had good thoughts and memories of last year. Love playing on bermudagrass, grew up on it, live in Florida, so that’s good, I love putting on Bermuda. Just good thoughts here.

It’s not a long golf course. It’s a golf course where I get a lot of short clubs and you can’t really overpower the golf course. It keeps the shorter hitters in the game, everybody has a chance here.”

Brendon Todd (2019): “ I mean, this golf course is good for me. It’s one of the shorter ones we play on the Tour and it forces everybody to hit the ball with the same clubs off the tee because there’s cross bunkers in certain places. The good thing about that for me is, I’m hitting the same clubs into the greens as everybody else and for some reason that tends to work out well in my favour. So the course is good for me, for my game, and I’ve been swinging well. These greens are grainy, they’re a little bit slow, so you’re always kind of guessing whether it’s two balls or three balls, how hard to hit it. I think everybody’s battling it a little bit, but it’s also why the scores are low, it helps the ball stop close to the hole and you can ram a few in.”

Rob Oppenheim (2019): “A lot of hills, for sure. You know, the wind makes this course, completely changes the course. I got here Monday, played and it was a complete different wind, so this course is very dictated by the wind direction and how much wind. So today it was, I think, the easier wind. It wasn’t up as much as it was the last two days, so you can see there’s some pretty good scores out there. And the greens are in great shape, so I  think it’s definitely, they’re receptive as well, so if you’re in the fairway, you can attack it.”

Martin Kaymer: “There are a couple very difficult holes where you can really screw up, where you can make big numbers. When you take 16, for example. But I think when you play on that grass, that Bermuda grass, it’s very important to hit good tee shots. It’s very difficult to judge distances from the first cut, from the rough, so I think the key is really to hit as many fairways as possible. But again, tee shots and then give yourself as many chances as possible. The wind, we all know, is going to be a factor. Playing on an island, it’s not a big surprise. We all have done that in the past, we all know how that works.

Yeah, when you’re standing on that 10th tee box, you know the next four or five holes are going to be difficult, because there are some tricky tee shots, a lot of elevations as well, especially when you’re standing on the 11th fairway and you have to hit it down to the green. It’s very difficult to judge the yardage or to judge the wind more and therefore to judge the yardage. So the back nine, that’s definitely more challenging than the front nine. The first six, seven holes, they’re important that you take advantage of them, that you make at least two or three birdies. That helps for the back nine.”

Jim Furyk: “Not at all. 17th is very reachable for me. The 7th is an iron shot for me in for a second shot. The only hole that I might give up ground on, is No. 2. But, I just played the fives really poorly. I drove it bad on 7, I did hit a bad drive there. A bad second shot on 17. I hit a good bunker shot, missed the putt. Hit a bad wedge into No. 2. I had it laid up perfect. No, I didn’t take advantage of the 5’s, but it’s not really the yardage. Two of them are very, very short. They’re long par-4s, really. Then the second hole is not going to be reachable for me unless it gets real downwind. But, I need to do a little better job with my wedge game. It’s not a power, this golf course, power has nothing to do with playing well on this golf course. I realized those three are all very long, but they’re also very good at scoring. Bubba can hit a lot of shots and work it into the wind. Rory’s obviously able to do that, being the No. 1 player in the world. And Martin is a good ball-striker. So, the power isn’t part of it, but they can move the ball better than I did today.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for the winners of the Bermuda Championship since 2019:

• 2021 – Lucas Herbert: Round 1: 26th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2020 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 12th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 25th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of Bermuda Championship winners since 2019:

• 2021 – Lucas Herbert: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2020 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 2 back.

Incoming Form of Bermuda winners since 2019:

• Lucas Herbert: MC Sanderson Farms/MC Fortinet/45th Korn Ferry Tour Champ/4th Boise.
• Brian Gay: MC Shriners/MC Safeway/MC Northern Trust / MC Wyndham.
• Brendon Todd: 28th Houston/MC Shriners/MC Safeway/MC Sanderson Farms.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2019. For full first round leader stats click here.

• 2021 – Hagy / Ramey -6/65 – Both PM Wave – 70/1 & 50/1.
• 2020 – Malnati -8/63 – AM Wave – 66/1
• 2019 – Scheffler -9/62 – AM Wave –  35/1

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Brian Gay, Bill Haas.
• 3 – Camilo Villegas.
• 2 –  Luke Donald, Fabian Gomez, Scott Piercy, Robert Streb.
• 1 –  Ryan Armour, Aaron Baddeley, Jonas Blixt, Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Tommy Gainey, Robert Garrigus, Cody Gribble, Garrick Higgo, Sung Kang, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Grayson Murray, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, C.T. Pan, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Nick Watney.

We have 3 renewals of the Bermuda Championship to work from. One (2019) featured very scoring-friendly conditions, the other two (2020 & 2021) featured plenty of wind – hence the winning totals were 9 shots apart.

What is apparent is that Port Royal does not discriminate. Long bombers such as Wyndham Clark, Harry Higgs, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Rodgers, Scottie Scheffler and Ollie Schniederjans have all contended, and in the case of Lucas Herbert, won here. We have also seen short game specialists in Brian Gay and Brendon Todd triumph. All shapes and sizes can compete here. Taylor Pendrith shot a course record 61 here 12 months ago, with Scottie Scheffler, Scott Stallings and Brendon Todd all firing 62s. Not overly helpful.

Trends change, but to this point Brendon Todd won this at 100/1 in 2019, Brian Gay was even more left field at 200/1 in 2020, whilst Lucas Herbert was an 80/1 chance in 2021.

Todd was ranked 525th in the OWGR and his last top-10 finish on the PGA Tour had been at the 2015 Greenbrier Classic. Brian Gay was ranked 328th in the OWGR and his previous top-10 had been 3rd here in Bermuda 12 months earlier. “Rookie” Lucas Herbert was ranked 57th in the OWGR and was playing only his 3rd event on the PGA Tour as a genuine member. He had missed both cuts at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms Championship.

My selections are as follows:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:45BST 24.10.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.