Course Guide: The tiny island of Bermuda has the biggest concentration of golf courses on the planet, with 7 courses packed into 21 square miles. The Bermuda Championship takes places at Port Royal Golf Course, which hosted the PGA Grand Slam of Golf from 2009 – 2014, organised by the PGA of America, where the 4 reigning Major champions came here to compete in October. And the PGA Tour now visits annually, with the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship offering a full 500 FedEx Cup points plus invites to the 2024 Tournament of Champions and Masters Tournament.
Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda: Designer: Robert Trent Jones 1970, with Roger Rulewich renovation 2009; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Short; Par: 71; Length: 6,828 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 7; Acres of Fairway: 21; Fairways: Front 9 – 419 Bermudagrass, Back 9 – 419 Bermudagrass with Zoysiagrass; Rough: Bermuda with Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: 8,000 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimpmeter 11ft.
Course Scoring Average: 2019: 69.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 28 of 41 courses. 2020: 71.15 (+0.15), Difficulty Rank 19 of 51 courses. 2021: 70.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 17 of 50 courses. 2022: 69.16 (-1.84), Difficulty Rank 40 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Trent Jones designs include:
Trent Jones
- Bellerive – 2018 PGA Championship
- Firestone South – WGC Bridgestone Invitational
- Hazeltine – 2009 PGA Championship
- Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
- Robert Trent Jones Golf Club – 2015 Congressional Loans National
- Valderrama – 2002 – 2008 Volvo Masters, 2010-11 Andalucía Masters, 2016 Open de Espana, 2017 – 2022 Andalucía Valderrama Masters
Course Overview: Port Royal Golf Course is a short Par 71 set on the Atlantic coastline of Bermuda. It has a 36/35 split, with the front 9 featuring a couple of reachable par-5s. The course reminds me a little of El Camaleon in Mexico, where they used to play the WWT Championship/Mayakoba event, in the aspect that both are short, and have contrasting elements to the course. Other players mention the Plantation Course on Maui as a correlating course, not for length, but purely for the undulations involved across the course. A tree-less Harbour Town has been quoted as well.
Here at Port Royal, the first 6 holes are played away from the coastline, protected partially against the wind, set in a low point. Most of the holes are guarded by trees earlier on, and it gives the appearance of a tropical inland golf course. With a genuine par-5 (2nd hole) and what in effect is a long par-4 (517 yards) playing as a par-5 (7th hole), this is the section of the course where scoring is essential, especially as there are 3 attackable par-4s as well. From the 7th green onwards through the 10th hole, the course opens out onto the coast, with no protection from the wind. This again is the case across the closing 5 hole stretch of the 14th through the 18th.
The back 9 has a couple of stretching par-3s (13th and 16th) both measuring 235 yards, with the 17th par-5 at 501 yards being a huge eagle opportunity, if you can avoid the fairway bunkers and water all the way down the left-hand side. From an overall perspective, players here mention huge elevation changes across the course and a number of isolated tee boxes. The course itself features Bermudagrass throughout and TifEagle Bermudagrass greens. When the PGA Grand Slam of Golf came here the course also featured rough which was described as penal enough to cause problems with approach shots in terms of distance control. Jim Furyk describes this course back at the 2014 Grand Slam as not being about power. Instead it’s a test, where both course and wind management are critical.
Fact is all shapes and sizes can compete here. As ever with coastal golf, winning score will be based on whether the wind blows. If the wind blows here, the track gets tougher, with Herbert’s and Gay’s winning total some 9 shots higher than Brandon Todd’s -24/260 in 2019. It also blew hard here last year, but softer greens allowed Seamus Power to get to -19/265.
Bermuda Championship Winners: 2022: Seamus Power (-19); 2021: Lucas Herbert (-15); 2020: Brian Gay (-15); 2019: Brendon Todd (-24).
- 2022: Seamus Power 65-65-65-70 -19/265
- 2021: Lucas Herbert 70-65-65-69 -15/269
- 2020: Brian Gay 70-68-67-64 -15/269
- 2019: Brendon Todd 68-63-67-62 -20/264
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Bermuda Championship since 2019:
- 2022 – Seamus Power: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 17th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Lucas Herbert: Round 1: 26th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2020 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 12th, Round 3: 5th.
- 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 25th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of Bermuda Championship winners since 2019:
- 2022 – Seamus Power: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: level.
- 2021 – Lucas Herbert: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2020 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 2 back.
OWGR of Bermuda Championship Winners: 2022: Power 48; 2021: Herbert 57; 2020: Gay 328; 2019: Todd 525.
Cut Line: 2022: -6; 2021: E; 2020: +1; 2019: -2
Lead Score Progression:
- 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -19.
- 2021: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -15.
- 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -15.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -24.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Brendon Todd, Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Harry Hall, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Griffin, Ryan Palmer, Luke List, Adam Long and Brian Gay.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Bermuda Championship Winning Prices: 2022: Power 22/1; 2021: Herbert 80/1; 2020: Gay 200/1; 2019: Todd 100/1. Overall Average: 101/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2022: Thursday: Overcast with occasional light showers. High of 79. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Friday: Overcast with occasional light showers. High of 79. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny with occasional showers. High of 79. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind W 20-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy and scattered showers. High of 79. Wind W 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Due to high winds and a rainstorm, play was suspended at 12:38 p.m. and players were held in place before resuming at 12:43 p.m. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 6:34 p.m. with 13 players remaining. Friday: Wind WNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. High of 80. Wind S 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 79. Wind SW 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 12:07 p.m. and players were held in place before resuming at 12:18 p.m.
- 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind SW 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 12-18 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Wind ESE at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind E 12-22 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind SE 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 79. Wind ESE 10-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Southampton, Bermuda is here.
As you would expect with a tropical island in the North Atlantic, precipitation can be a feature here in Bermuda with tropical storms. The course was deluged in September, and October also saw another 307mm with +90mm across the past week. Despite a dry forecast, expect lush turf and soft greens. Temperatures will be slightly down on the norm for Bermuda at 21-23 degrees Celsius, 70-73 Fahrenheit. Winds are light on Thursday and Friday, but increase to 15-25 mph south westerly on Saturday reversing to 15-25 mph north-easterly on Sunday. I’d expect -20/264 or slightly lower required to win this.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Irish Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Total: 11) Brendon Todd; 2) Luke List; 3) Hank Lebioda; 4) Camilo Villegas; 5) Vincent Whaley; 6) Akshay Bhatia; 7) Mark Hubbard; 8) Thomas Detry; 9) Lanto Griffin; 10) Taylor Pendrith; 11) Lucas Herbert / Kelly Kraft / Ryan Moore; 14) Doug Ghim; 15) Adam Scott; 16) Ben Griffin / Martin Laird; 18) Martin Trainer; 19) Henrik Norlander; 20) Kramer Hickok; 21) Troy Merritt; 22) Patton Kizzire; 23) Alex Smalley / Austin Smotherman; 25) Adam Long / Alex Noren / Dylan Wu.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the Bermuda winners since 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2022, Seamus Power (-19). 302 yards (22nd), 55.4% fairways (43rd), 75.0% greens in regulation (9th), 61.1% scrambling (46th), 1.56 putts per GIR (3rd).
- 2021, Lucas Herbert (-15). 286 yards (7th), 51.8% fairways (53rd), 62.5% greens in regulation (58th), 77.8% scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
- 2020, Brian Gay (-15). 288 yards (38th), 58.9% fairways (4th), 69.4% greens in regulation (15th), 72.7% scrambling (16th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
- 2019, Brendon Todd (-24). 303 yards (51st), 69.6% fairways (4th), 76.4% greens in regulation (10th), 82.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.55 putts per GIR (3rd).
- Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 26th, Greens in Regulation: 23rd, Scrambling: 18th, Putting Average 6th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Port Royal Golf Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Seamus Power (2022): Friday: “Yeah, I mean, 9, so 9 yesterday I just ship it over both bunkers and have like a three-quarter lob wedge to the back pin. Today, one, you can’t take the bunkers out of play and it’s dead into the wind. I hit a very good tee shot, just caught the bunker. And 2 then you’ve got a shot where it’s into the wind, into the rain on a green where you can’t really spin it, so you’re worried about that because it can come back down, it can come 50 yards back down that fairway. So you have guys hit 9 and 8-irons in there where it was like lob wedges yesterday. The difficulty with the pin and all that, it’s going to make it very different.
And then 17 is the other one, 17 yesterday was a driver, mid-iron for most guys, par 5, where today I don’t even know if you can carry the bunkers. It’s going to be a three-shotter, especially in the afternoon with that rain unless it kind of eases off. You take away a couple of very good birdie chances just like that and that’s adding probably a stroke between the two to the stroke average for the day.
Saturday: “The greens are softer this year so you do have a chance, but even still, like you don’t have much margin for error. I made some nice putts. You had to get the par5s. I got two out of the three and then add in a few putts. But 6 under, you knew it was going to be tough because as I said, once you get to 13, 13 through 16 there’s just very, very difficult. I mean, I hit some good shots. Even on 13 I thought I hit a very good 4-iron, but like the ball’s in the air off the elevated tee and just keeps moving and moving and misses on the short side and you make a double.
Even on I think 15 I had a pitch shot that kind of summed it up. I ended up in a funny spot off the tee, I had like 50 yards for a pitch shot and I aimed my pitch shot about 10 yards left of the pin and ended up right of the pin. It was just one of those kind of days, your imagination had to keep working. Your focus and trust had to be there and mine was for the most part.”
Lucas Herbert (2021): “Yeah, it wasn’t looking like the best day on the planet there on the 8th walking off the tee when we were all like huddled under umbrellas on the ground because I don’t think I’ve ever seen any sort of weather or rain or whatever you want to call that coming in, that was brutal. Yeah, to survive all that, I’m very proud.
Yeah, I felt like I grinded really well early and I had the right attitude going into the day that it wasn’t going to be easy. Obviously on the range it was, I don’t think we even hit drivers on the range because just couldn’t hit it, it was just pointless, so you just knew it was going to be one of those days where you had to battle really, really hard. Under par was going to be a great score. I couldn’t go and expect to finish at 20 under par or anything like that, you just had to grind through. Yeah, there was going to be some holes where it was going to die down a little bit and give you a chance, just had to kind of take your chances on those when you did get them.
Matt Fitzpatrick (2021): “Yeah, it’s tough. The elevation is a lot around this golf course. Me and my caddie definitely noticed it this morning walking up and down the hills, it was tiring. I think it’s one that you’ve got to, certainly the second shots that are up the hill that are pretty blind, you’ve really got to know where you’re hitting it. You’ve got to pick good targets and got to be very disciplined, you can’t get too aggressive. I think in terms of the elevation, you’ve got to be in control of your ball flight and know your numbers and distances, where to hit and where not to. I think there’s a lot of mental stuff involved and you’ve really got to think your way around. I think for me, I enjoy that part of the game, it’s a challenge. And you’ve got to be on it for 72 holes, so I’m looking forward to that.”
Taylor Pendrith (2021): “It was two different days, for sure. You know, yesterday was some of the worst weather I’ve ever played in and just almost like surviving out there. Didn’t really matter how you hit it, you just have to hit shots. Today was a completely different story. I knew I was putting good. I hit a close one on 1 and then I think every other putt after that was, you know, 10-plus footers and a couple 20-footers, which was nice to see go in. I feel like I’ve been putting pretty well leading up to this event and just haven’t really been making many, so to see some longer ones go in gave me a lot of confidence.
On 17 I hit driver. Yesterday was straight downwind and blowing a lot. I hit driver and a sand wedge to a foot. I figured I’m going to hit driver; if I pull it in the water, I’m going to drop it at 120 yards and hit a wedge on the green and can still make birdie that way. But it sets up good for me with the wind slightly off the right. Hit driver again today and hit pitching wedge to eight feet, was in the right rough. And yeah, I don’t know, I thought about hitting iron there, but it’s pretty wide where my drive lands, so like I said, if I do tug it and it goes in the water, I’ve got a wedge for my third anyways”
Brian Gay (2020): “It reminds me actually, walking around, kind of walking around Maui is what it reminds me of Yeah, I played good here last year, tied for third, so coming back had good thoughts and memories of last year. Love playing on bermudagrass, grew up on it, live in Florida, so that’s good, I love putting on Bermuda. Just good thoughts here.
It’s not a long golf course. It’s a golf course where I get a lot of short clubs and you can’t really overpower the golf course. It keeps the shorter hitters in the game, everybody has a chance here.”
Brendon Todd (2019): “ I mean, this golf course is good for me. It’s one of the shorter ones we play on the Tour and it forces everybody to hit the ball with the same clubs off the tee because there’s cross bunkers in certain places. The good thing about that for me is, I’m hitting the same clubs into the greens as everybody else and for some reason that tends to work out well in my favour. So the course is good for me, for my game, and I’ve been swinging well. These greens are grainy, they’re a little bit slow, so you’re always kind of guessing whether it’s two balls or three balls, how hard to hit it. I think everybody’s battling it a little bit, but it’s also why the scores are low, it helps the ball stop close to the hole and you can ram a few in.”
Rob Oppenheim (2019): “A lot of hills, for sure. You know, the wind makes this course, completely changes the course. I got here Monday, played and it was a complete different wind, so this course is very dictated by the wind direction and how much wind. So today it was, I think, the easier wind. It wasn’t up as much as it was the last two days, so you can see there’s some pretty good scores out there. And the greens are in great shape, so I think it’s definitely, they’re receptive as well, so if you’re in the fairway, you can attack it.”
Martin Kaymer: “There are a couple very difficult holes where you can really screw up, where you can make big numbers. When you take 16, for example. But I think when you play on that grass, that Bermuda grass, it’s very important to hit good tee shots. It’s very difficult to judge distances from the first cut, from the rough, so I think the key is really to hit as many fairways as possible. But again, tee shots and then give yourself as many chances as possible. The wind, we all know, is going to be a factor. Playing on an island, it’s not a big surprise. We all have done that in the past, we all know how that works.
Yeah, when you’re standing on that 10th tee box, you know the next four or five holes are going to be difficult, because there are some tricky tee shots, a lot of elevations as well, especially when you’re standing on the 11th fairway and you have to hit it down to the green. It’s very difficult to judge the yardage or to judge the wind more and therefore to judge the yardage. So the back nine, that’s definitely more challenging than the front nine. The first six, seven holes, they’re important that you take advantage of them, that you make at least two or three birdies. That helps for the back nine.”
Jim Furyk: “Not at all. 17th is very reachable for me. The 7th is an iron shot for me in for a second shot. The only hole that I might give up ground on, is No. 2. But, I just played the fives really poorly. I drove it bad on 7, I did hit a bad drive there. A bad second shot on 17. I hit a good bunker shot, missed the putt. Hit a bad wedge into No. 2. I had it laid up perfect. No, I didn’t take advantage of the 5’s, but it’s not really the yardage. Two of them are very, very short. They’re long par-4s, really. Then the second hole is not going to be reachable for me unless it gets real downwind. But, I need to do a little better job with my wedge game. It’s not a power, this golf course, power has nothing to do with playing well on this golf course. I realized those three are all very long, but they’re also very good at scoring. Bubba can hit a lot of shots and work it into the wind. Rory’s obviously able to do that, being the No. 1 player in the world. And Martin is a good ball-striker. So, the power isn’t part of it, but they can move the ball better than I did today.”
Incoming Form of Bermuda winners since 2019:
- Seamus Power: 49th CJ Cup/MC Shriners/30th Sanderson Farms/65th BMW Championship.
- Lucas Herbert: MC Sanderson Farms/MC Fortinet/45th Korn Ferry Tour Champ/4th Boise.
- Brian Gay: MC Shriners/MC Safeway/MC Northern Trust / MC Wyndham.
- Brendon Todd: 28th Houston/MC Shriners/MC Safeway/MC Sanderson Farms.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2019. For full first round leader stats click here.
- 2022 – Endycott / Smotherman -9/62 – AM/PM Split – 100/1 & 80/1.
- 2021 – Hagy / Ramey -6/65 – Both PM Wave – 70/1 & 50/1.
- 2020 – Malnati -8/63 – AM Wave – 66/1
- 2019 – Scheffler -9/62 – AM Wave – 35/1
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 4 – Brian Gay.
- 3 – Ryan Palmer, Camilo Villegas.
- 2 – Jason Dufner, Lucas Glover, Fabian Gomez, Scott Piercy, Adam Scott, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
- 1 – Ryan Armour, Jonas Blixt, Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tommy Gainey, Cody Gribble, Lanto Griffin, Nick Hardy, Lucas Herbert, Jim Herman, Sung Kang, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Luke List, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, C.T. Pan, Davis Riley, Brian Stuard, Brendon Todd, D.J. Trahan, Nick Watney.
We have 4 renewals of the Bermuda Championship to work from. One (2019) featured very scoring-friendly conditions, the other three (2020, 2021 & 2022) featured plenty of wind – hence the winning totals were 5-9 shots apart.
What is apparent is that Port Royal does not discriminate. Long bombers such as Wyndham Clark, Harry Higgs, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Rodgers, Scottie Scheffler and Ollie Schniederjans have all contended and in the case of Lucas Herbert won here. Seamus Power is middle of the road off the tee, whilst short game specialists Brian Gay and Brendon Todd have also won here. All shapes and sizes can compete here.
Trends change, but to this point Brendon Todd won this at 100/1 in 2019, Brian Gay was even more left field at 200/1 in 2020. Since then Lucas Herbert was an 80/1 chance in 2021 and Seamus Power last year was as short as 22/1.
Todd was ranked 525th in the OWGR and his last top 10 finish on the PGA Tour had been at the 2015 Greenbrier Classic. Brian Gay was ranked 328th in the OWGR and his previous top 10 has been 3rd here in Bermuda, 12 months earlier. “Rookie” Lucas Herbert was ranked 57th in the OWGR and was playing only his 3rd event on the PGA Tour as a genuine member. He had missed both cuts at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms Championship. Whilst Seamus Power backed up his first PGA Tour win at the Barbasol Championship 16 months prior with his second here – he was ranked 48th in the OWGR.
