Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Betfred British Masters Tips 2023

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Any lingering hopes that 125/1 chance Daniel Gavins could sneak a top-8 finish last week in Munich with a solid final day, having sat in 9th place after 54 holes, were quickly extinguished on Sunday and he limped home in 83 strokes to deliver us a blank week at the BMW International Open,

On to this week then and dating all the way back to 1946 when Bobby Locke and Jimmy Adams tied for the title at Stoneham Golf Club, the British Masters was a mainstay on the schedule, give or take the odd omission, right up to 2008 when Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano took the trophy here at The Belfry which had hosted the event for 3 years on the trot. Forest of Arden GC and Woburn, both the Duke’s and Marquess Course, have also hosted this event since the turn of the century before the event dropped off the schedule until its renaissance in 2015.

Matthew Fitzpatrick realised the potential that many had seen in him on the event’s re-start by winning this title at Woburn and Alex Noren added his 3rd of 4 2016 titles at The Grove a year later, successfully holding off final day efforts from Bernd Wiesberger and Lee Westwood.

Paul Dunne added his name to the champions’ list at Close House where a closing round of 61, punctuated by a chip-in birdie on the 72nd hole, was enough to keep Rory McIlroy at bay and earn the Irishman a well-deserved first Tour victory. Eddie Pepperell proved victorious the following autumn in challenging conditions at Walton Heath, holding off Alexander Bjork to record his second European Tour title in impressive fashion, before Marcus Kinhult was victorious at Hillside in 2019, arriving off the back of four consecutive missed cuts.

Renato Paratore won the hastily-arranged 2020 renewal at Close House as the Tour patched together their post-lockdown UK Swing, with the Italian impressively holding off Rasmus Hojgaard by 3 strokes, and who can forget the emotional win for Richard Bland in 2021, who at the age of 48 became the oldest first-time winner on Tour here at The Belfry.

Thorbjorn Olesen added his name to the winners’ list 12 months ago, rallying with an eagle-birdie finish after he’d seemingly thrown away his winning chance by sitting 4-over through 16 holes. If we see similar drama again this week then we’re in for a real treat.

The Brabazon Course and Sir Nick Faldo host this week’s renewal this week and Justin Rose has made a rare visit home for a regulations DP World Tour event to bolster this week’s field. The world number 31, who won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, has leapt to the top of the betting board with 11/1 the best price out there at the time of writing. Minwoo Lee (12/1) plays this side of the Atlantic for the first time since the start of the year, with Adrian Meronk (16/1) and Jordan Smith (20/1) adding further quality to the field.

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Course Overview. The Brabazon Course at The Belfry is no stranger to the circuit with a number of events having been hosted here since the turn of the century, however prior to the 2020 ISPS Handa UK Championship won by Rasmus Hojgaard, 2008 was the last time that we saw the Peter Alliss and Dave Thomas design in competitive action at this level. 4 Ryder Cups have also been played around these parts, the most recent of which was team Europe’s win in 2002.

Parkland in style with water in play on half of the holes, the track measures 7,336 yards for its par of 72. 12 par-4s instead of the more typical 10 means that there are just 3 each of the par-3s and par-5s, however scoring on those longer holes at 538, 566 and 564 yards for the 3rd, 15th and 17th respectively is an important part of compiling a competitive score here.

Historically the fairways here have been narrow and the rough lush, however the Bent/Poa greens are of excellent quality giving a little respite to those who are less adept on and around the putting surfaces.

british masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week. Course stats include the various events that have been played here at The Belfry since 2000: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

British Masters – Event Winners & Prices. 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen, 75/1; 2021: Richard Bland, 150/1; 2020: Renato Paratore, 50/1; 2019: Marcus Kinhult, 175/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 30/1; 2017: Paul Dunne, 66/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 18/1; 2015: Matt Fitzpatrick, 33/1.

For a summary of winners’ odds on the European Tour for the past 10 years click here.

Course Winners. 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen, -10; 2021: Richard Bland, -13; 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard, -14; 2008: Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, -12; 2007: Lee Westwood, -15; 2006: Johan Edfors, -11; 2003: Paul Casey, -11; 2002: Angel Cabrera, -10; 2001, Henrik Stenson, -13; 2000: Jose Maria Olazabal, -13.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Despite the odd thunderstorm, England’s weather has been fairly warm and dry for the recent past and save for a deluge prior to this week’s event, I’d expect the course to play reasonably firm and fast. Sunshine and light showers is the summary for the 4 days, with winds around 10-15 mph and temperatures reaching 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the three winners here at The Belfry in recent years gives us a little more insight into the skill-sets required:

  • 2022, Thorbjorn Olesen (-10). 293 yards (17th), 38.3% fairways (67th), 57.0% greens in regulation (60th), 74.2% scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2021, Richard Bland (-13). 272 yards (52nd), 78.3% fairways (1st), 82.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 92.3% scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (48th).
  • 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard (-14). 304 yards (9th), 48.3% fairways (40th), 75% greens in regulation (6th), 55.6% scrambling (36th), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st).

Looking at the list of players who’ve succeeded around the Brabazon course here at The Belfry historically, it’s fair to say that generally better Total Driving and Ball-Striking has been the key to success. Of course there’s always an exception to the rule, and last year’s winner Thorbjorn Olesen is just that as his long game was poor in comparison but he managed to navigate to victory courtesy of his short game.

The greens here are generally easy to read and favour those players who might otherwise struggle on the putting surfaces, and again that’s reinforced when you see a list of names including Lee Westwood, Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson all having won here.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the only consistent stat across all three renewals has been SG Approach with each of the winners ranking inside the top 10 on that account on the week:

  • 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen: T: 64th; A: 9th; T2G: 31st; ATG: 31st; P: 2nd
  • 2021: Richard Bland: T: 18th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 37th; P: 55th
  • 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard: T: 11th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 38th; P: 20th

Aside from our winners, Justin Walters (2022 – 3rd), Mikko Korhonen (2021 – 3rd) and Benjamin Hebert (2020 – 3rd) each topped the SG Approach stats in their contending performances, so if there’s one stat to focus on this week then perhaps that’s it.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Since the British Masters was re-established in 2015, the four winners prior to Marcus Kinhult – Eddie Pepperell, Paul Dunne, Alex Noren and Matt Fitzpatrick – had each shown some decent enough form in the weeks prior to their victory. Marcus Kinhult was far more difficult to find as he’d missed each of his previous 4 cuts, shooting 80 on his previous competitive round before opening with a 65 at Hillside and hardly looking back.

Eddie Pepperell had recorded 5 top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts, 2 of which were runner-up finishes at the Scottish Open and Portugal Masters. Paul Dunne had produced two top-15 finishes in his previous three strokeplay events and after a shaky 74 to start on his most recent start in Holland, nobody in the field bettered his final 3-round total. For Noren this was the third of four 2016 victories and he was clearly in exceptional form overall, whereas for Fitzpatrick his win at Woburn marked his maiden success on the European Tour, however with four top-3 finishes in his previous 11 events he was clearly knocking very loudly on the door.

2020 winner Renato Paratore secured his second European Tour title at Close House off the back of a 15th place finish in Austria a fortnight before, which was his only start since lockdown had eased. The Italian sat 2nd at the halfway point at Diamond Country Club and had also been prominent in Saudi and Abu Dhabi in strong fields earlier in the year.

Richard Bland’s fairytale win in 2021, on the 478th time of asking as a professional, wasn’t completely out of the blue either as he’d finished runner-up at Leopard Creek the previous November and had recorded a top-10 finish in Gran Canaria as recently as 3 weeks prior.

Finally, last year’s winner Thorbjorn Olesen broke a 4-year drought when he fended off Sebastian Soderberg courtesy of some late putting heroics, however there had been signs that he was finding his game once again, recording a top 10 finish in Dubai in the late autumn before finishing 12th in Qatar where only a 3rd round 76 stopped him from seriously contending:

  • 2022, Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/20/41/8/42/35/MC/MC/12/23/33
  • 2021, Richard Bland: 16/7/2/40/35/MC/52/MC/MC/8/MC/27
  • 2020, Renato Paratore: 48/40/21/36/19/2/21/MC/27/74/47/15
  • 2019, Marcus Kinhult: 22/30/71/22/20/MC/MC/18/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018, Eddie Pepperell: 43/51/DQ/MC/2/6/59/9/56/6/2/44
  • 2017, Paul Dunne: 33/30/MC/MC/13/54/26/MC/9/14/70/14
  • 2016, Alex Noren: MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2/1/34/11
  • 2015, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/3/MC/MC/77/2/17/44/3/30/3/MC

As an additional angle, we can also look at Rasmus Hojgaard’s win here at The Belfry at the 2020 UK Championship:

  • 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard: 13/49/1/MC/MC/MC/MC/6/MC/2/6/3

The young Dane was a fairly obvious winner with incoming form of 2/6/3 over his past 3 starts and justified his 14/1 quotes in the end via a play-off.

Course Form:

Aside from Angel Cabrera, our course winners here had patchy history at best at The Belfry prior to lifting their respective trophies:

  • 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen: 17/57
  • 2021: Richard Bland: 46/31/MC/MC/19
  • 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2008: Gonzalo Fdez Castano: 14/57
  • 2007: Lee Westwood: 54/57/MC/27/MC
  • 2006: Johan Edfors: Debut
  • 2003: Paul Casey: 12/MC
  • 2002: Angel Cabrera: 9/2
  • 2001, Henrik Stenson: Debut
  • 2000: Jose Maria Olazabal: Debut

For me, the Belfry is a good test of golf and scoring isn’t likely to get out of control, despite a fairly quiet weather forecast. Historically straightforward greens of excellent quality will encourage birdies though to those who can keep the ball in play, and overall I’d favour those who can gain most of their strokes from tee-to-green and with their approach play, as opposed to on the putting surfaces themselves.

My selections are as follows:

Adrian Meronk 3pts EW 14/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

The inclusion of Justin Rose and Minwoo Lee in this week’s field has changed the dynamic of the betting this week, with many recent DP World Tour markets almost feeling like a cut-and-paste job from the previous weeks.

The fact that Rose and Lee have been installed at the top of the market is no surprise, with the former boasting PGA Tour silverware already in 2023 and the latter arriving off the back of top-10 finishes at both the US Open and last week at the Travelers Championship. The third and final member of the World’s top 50, Adrian Meronk, holds more appeal for me though and that’s where I’m starting this week’s team.

This is the first time in 20 years that Rose is teeing it up competitively at The Belfry and historic form of MC/MC/44 hardly sets the pulse racing; Lee, on the other hand, has more recent and more impressive form of 11/21 from 2020 and 2021 respectively. Both should be highly respected of course, however Meronk’s 3rd place finish here in 2021 trumps the pair of them and he’s got an awful lot to play for right now.

With his place at the Open Championship already secured, further bolstering – and improving upon – his current world ranking 48th is one priority, however the very real prospect of Ryder Cup qualification makes that pale into insignificance right now. At 4th in the European Points list with just 3 automatic spots up for grabs, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are home and hosed. That 3rd spot though, currently held by Yannik Paul who withdrew from last week’s event in Munich with a back issue, is tantalisingly close and Meronk could make that position his own if he continues the form we’ve seen of him in recent times.

3 wins in his last 29 starts stretching back to the Irish Open exactly a year ago is both an impressive haul and a tick in the biorhythms box, and 4 further top-7 finishes – including 2 in his last 4 starts – goes a long way to justifying his position in the market this week.

3rd last week in Germany came after missed cuts at the Canadian Open and US Open and shows a level of comfort and confidence at this lower level, and with season-long rankings of 13th for SG Approach and 1st for SG Tee to Green, the talented Pole has the perfect game to contend and win around these parts.

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Jorge Campillo 1.5pts EW 40/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Winning professional golf tournaments is a habit that some players seem to have and others don’t, or don’t have any longer. Last week’s event in Munich was another case in point with Joost Luiten, who is winless now for 5 years, letting a gilt-edged opportunity slip through his fingers with Thriston Lawrence, who now has 4 DP World titles to his name, all won in the past 18 months or so, the emotional recipient.

Lawrence joins Adrian Meronk, Pablo Larrazabal and Ockie Strydom as multiple winners in this 2023 season that’s only a little past the halfway mark, and Jorge Campillo could be another who joins that elite club this week.

Success at this year’s Kenya Open was the Spaniard’s third title at DP World Tour title, backing up previous successes in Morocco and Qatar since 2019. Those first two victories came at 9- and 13-under respectively which is very much in keeping with the kind of winning totals here at The Belfry of late, and although Kenya scoring was a little deeper at 18-under, there’s enough correlation between performances in that region to those who’ve also played well here in the midlands to not dismiss it as irrelevant.

9th in Japan, 3rd in South Korea and 8th in Italy followed the 37 year old’s effort in Kenya before he went off the boil a little, however there were signs last week that his stock might be rising once again with a 14th place finish, punctuated with a closing round of 66 which was 2 better than anyone else in the field.

7th here at The Belfry on debut at the 2020 UK Championship is by far Campillo’s best effort around these parts and he could well repeat that or better this week, buoyed by the news that he’s qualified for this year’s Open Championship courtesy of his lofty Race to Dubai season-long position.

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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Another player to hint at some impending form last week in Germany was Guido Migliozzi and he’s also worthy of support at a strong mid-price.

Catching the talented Italian on the right week isn’t easy such is his inconsistency, however what is clear is that when everything clicks he’s a formidable player at DP World Tour level. 3 wins since 2019 is testament to that fact, the most recent of which came last year’s Open de France with a sparkling final round of 62 proving too good for his opponents on that most exacting of tests at Le Golf National.

In truth it’s been more miss than hit since that point for the 26 year-old in a year when he’d have dearly loved to be playing his best golf to give himself a chance of making a Ryder Cup debut on home soil. 20th in Abu Dhabi masks the fact that he sat at the top of the pile at halfway, and 14th in South Korea got many an observer excited about his state of game closing as he did with a round of 63, however they are the exceptions.

Last week’s 10th place finish in Munich though was the steadiest (71, 71, 69, 69) and most consistent (SG positive in every category) performance of the season, and a return to The Belfry where he was on the losing end of that fairytale play-off with Richard Bland 2 years ago could see a continuation of his form and another prominent performance.

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Marcus Armitage 1pt EW 100/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

My first 3 picks this week all flashed something positive last week in Germany, all have recent enough wins, all have a strong performance to their name here at The Belfry, and all have an Open Championship invite tucked in their back pocket. My final 2 picks are a little deeper in the market as their chance isn’t quite so tangible, yet both have their merits and both will be looking to pick up one of the 3 Open Championship invites available this week to the top finishing players who aren’t already exempt.

First up, Marcus Armitage who’s got the raw materials I like when it comes to this week’s test. When on his game, the Bullet’s approach play is his greatest asset and that fits The Belfry like a glove. Despite recording a series of middling performances over the past few months with 9th at the Italian Open the standout effort, his SG Approach performances have still managed to catch the eye, ranking 3rd on that count in Korea (71st overall), 8th at the Soudal Open (28th overall) and 3rd again in Holland (29th overall). For me he’s not far away from finding a contending performance, and perhaps a return to home soil will be the catalyst that the Salford man needs.

Armitage’s sole win at DP World Tour level came at the challenging 2021 renewal of the Porsche European Open where a 54-hole total of 8-under par was enough for a 2-stroke victory, and his stoic approach isn’t a bad starting point here at The Belfry, a course where he has shown some aptitude, finishing 7th at the 2020 UK Championship and 21st last year in this event.

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John Catlin 1pt EW 150/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally, while on the subject of stoicism, few come better equipped in that respect than John Catlin and he completes by team this week.

3 times a winner on the DP World Tour since the autumn of 2020, the American has proven himself more than capable of tackling courses where pars rather than birdies are the key currency. The 32 year-old’s breakthrough win came on the exacting test that is Valderrama, winning at 2-over par, and although I’m not suggesting that anything remotely similar is to be expected this week, it does nevertheless demonstrate a certain mindset.

A 10-under total to win the Irish Open at Galgorm Castle is more relevant to this week’s task, as is his 14-under success in Austria in April 2021 where he eventually overcame Max Kieffer in a marathon play-off. The style of play required both those weeks isn’t dissimilar to what may well work here this week, and with solid if unspectacular finishes here of 25th (2020) and 36th (2022) it’s fair to say that he’s shown some positive flashes around these parts, finishing both efforts with rounds of 68.

Recent form is the reason we’re getting such a healthy price on the Californian with a season’s best finish of 14th hardly leaping off the page. 4th at the Irish Open in this spot in the schedule 12 months ago is positive for biorhythm believers though, and 21st last time out at the Scandinavian Mixed saw John sitting in 4th place before fading over the weekend.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:50BST 26.6.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.