Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Betfred British Masters Tips 2024

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It wasn’t to be for any of my trio last week in Denmark, however congratulations must go to Steve Bamford who put up 33/1 winner Frederic Lacroix on last week’s podcast. Very well done to Steve and any of our listeners who follow him in on the talented Frenchman.

On to this week we go then and dating all the way back to 1946 when Bobby Locke and Jimmy Adams tied for the title at Stoneham Golf Club, the British Masters was a mainstay on the schedule, give or take the odd omission, right up to 2008 when Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano took the trophy here at The Belfry which had hosted the event for 3 years on the trot. Forest of Arden GC and Woburn, both the Duke’s and Marquess Course, have also hosted this event since the turn of the century before the event dropped off the schedule until its renaissance in 2015.

Matthew Fitzpatrick realised the potential that many had seen in him on the event’s re-start by winning this title at Woburn and Alex Noren added his 3rd of 4 2016 titles at The Grove a year later, successfully holding off final day efforts from Bernd Wiesberger and Lee Westwood.

Paul Dunne added his name to the champions’ list at Close House where a closing round of 61, punctuated by a chip-in birdie on the 72nd hole, was enough to keep Rory McIlroy at bay and earn the Irishman a well-deserved first Tour victory. Eddie Pepperell proved victorious the following autumn in challenging conditions at Walton Heath, holding off Alexander Bjork to record his second European Tour title in impressive fashion, before Marcus Kinhult was victorious at Hillside in 2019, arriving off the back of four consecutive missed cuts.

Renato Paratore won the hastily-arranged 2020 renewal at Close House as the Tour patched together their post-lockdown UK Swing, with the Italian impressively holding off Rasmus Hojgaard by 3 strokes, and who can forget the emotional win for Richard Bland in 2021, who at the age of 48 became the oldest first-time winner on Tour here at The Belfry.

Thorbjorn Olesen added his name to the winners’ list in 2022, rallying with an eagle-birdie finish after he’d seemingly thrown away his winning chance by sitting 4-over through 16 holes. And Daniel Hillier produced an even more stunning finish last year of eagle-birdie-eagle-par to come from virtually nowhere to win by 2 strokes. If we see similar drama again this week then we’re in for a real treat.

The Brabazon Course and Sir Nick Faldo host this week’s renewal once again this week and Tyrrell Hatton has made a rare visit home for a regulation DP World Tour event to bolster this week’s field. The Englishman has been installed as the clear favourite at a best price of 15/2 at the time of writing, with the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard, Tom McKibbin and Thorbjorn Olesen all 20/1 or longer.

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Course Overview. The Brabazon Course at The Belfry is no stranger to the circuit with a number of events having been hosted here since the turn of the century, however prior to the 2020 ISPS Handa UK Championship won by Rasmus Hojgaard, 2008 was the last time that we saw the Peter Alliss and Dave Thomas design in competitive action at this level. 4 Ryder Cups have also been played around these parts, the most recent of which was team Europe’s win in 2002.

Parkland in style with water in play on half of the holes, the track measures 7,336 yards for its par of 72. 12 par-4s instead of the more typical 10 means that there are just 3 each of the par-3s and par-5s, however scoring on those longer holes at 538, 566 and 564 yards for the 3rd, 15th and 17th respectively is an important part of compiling a competitive score here.

Historically the fairways here have been narrow and the rough lush, however the Bent/Poa greens are of excellent quality giving a little respite to those who are less adept on and around the putting surfaces.

british masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week. Course stats include the various events that have been played here at The Belfry since 2000: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

British Masters – Event Winners & Prices. 2023: Daniel Hillier, 90/1; 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen, 75/1; 2021: Richard Bland, 150/1; 2020: Renato Paratore, 50/1; 2019: Marcus Kinhult, 175/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 30/1; 2017: Paul Dunne, 66/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 18/1; 2015: Matt Fitzpatrick, 33/1.

Course Winners. 2023: Daniel Hillier, -10; 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen, -10; 2021: Richard Bland, -13; 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard, -14; 2008: Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, -12; 2007: Lee Westwood, -15; 2006: Johan Edfors, -11; 2003: Paul Casey, -11; 2002: Angel Cabrera, -10; 2001, Henrik Stenson, -13; 2000: Jose Maria Olazabal, -13.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Aside from some rain on Saturday, this part of England’s weather has been fairly dry for the recent past and save for a deluge prior to this week’s event, I’d expect the course to play reasonably firm and fast. A late burst of summer sunshine will greet the players this week with light winds and temperatures nudging towards 75 Fahrenheit making it feel positively tropical in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the four winners here at The Belfry in recent years gives us a little more insight into the skill-sets required:

  • 2023, Daniel Hillier (-10). 315 yards (4th), 51.7% fairways (20th), 69.4% greens in regulation (20th), 72.7% scrambling (5th), 1.76 putts per GIR (31st).
  • 2022, Thorbjorn Olesen (-10). 293 yards (17th), 38.3% fairways (67th), 57.0% greens in regulation (60th), 74.2% scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2021, Richard Bland (-13). 272 yards (52nd), 78.3% fairways (1st), 82.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 92.3% scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (48th).
  • 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard (-14). 304 yards (9th), 48.3% fairways (40th), 75% greens in regulation (6th), 55.6% scrambling (36th), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st).

Looking at the list of players who’ve succeeded around the Brabazon course here at The Belfry historically, it’s fair to say that generally better Total Driving and Ball-Striking has been the key to success. Daniel Hillier was another case in point last year, ranking 6th in the field for Total Driving courtesy of some relatively accurate bombing.

The greens here are generally easy to read and favour those players who might otherwise struggle on the putting surfaces, and again that’s reinforced when you see a list of names including Lee Westwood, Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson all having won here, however finding and holding greens isn’t always easy when conditions are firm.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the only consistent stat across all four renewals has been SG Approach with each of the winners ranking inside the top 11 on that account on the week:

  • 2023: Daniel Hillier: T: 25th; A: 11th; T2G: 16st; ATG: 58th; P: 2nd
  • 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen: T: 64th; A: 9th; T2G: 31st; ATG: 31st; P: 2nd
  • 2021: Richard Bland: T: 18th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 37th; P: 55th
  • 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard: T: 11th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 38th; P: 20th

Aside from our winners, Justin Walters (2022 – 3rd), Mikko Korhonen (2021 – 3rd) and Benjamin Hebert (2020 – 3rd) each topped the SG Approach stats in their contending performances, so if there’s one stat to focus on this week then perhaps that’s it.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Since the British Masters was re-established in 2015, the four winners prior to Marcus Kinhult – Eddie Pepperell, Paul Dunne, Alex Noren and Matt Fitzpatrick – had each shown some decent enough form in the weeks prior to their victory. Marcus Kinhult was far more difficult to find as he’d missed each of his previous 4 cuts, shooting 80 on his previous competitive round before opening with a 65 at Hillside and hardly looking back.

Eddie Pepperell had recorded 5 top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts, 2 of which were runner-up finishes at the Scottish Open and Portugal Masters. Paul Dunne had produced two top-15 finishes in his previous three strokeplay events and after a shaky 74 to start on his most recent start in Holland, nobody in the field bettered his final 3-round total. For Noren this was the third of four 2016 victories and he was clearly in exceptional form overall, whereas for Fitzpatrick his win at Woburn marked his maiden success on the European Tour, however with four top-3 finishes in his previous 11 events he was clearly knocking very loudly on the door.

2020 winner Renato Paratore secured his second European Tour title at Close House off the back of a 15th place finish in Austria a fortnight before, which was his only start since lockdown had eased. The Italian sat 2nd at the halfway point at Diamond Country Club and had also been prominent in Saudi and Abu Dhabi in strong fields earlier in the year.

Richard Bland’s fairytale win in 2021, on the 478th time of asking as a professional, wasn’t completely out of the blue either as he’d finished runner-up at Leopard Creek the previous November and had recorded a top-10 finish in Gran Canaria as recently as 3 weeks prior.

2022 winner Thorbjorn Olesen broke a 4-year drought when he fended off Sebastian Soderberg courtesy of some late putting heroics, however there had been signs that he was finding his game once again, recording a top 10 finish in Dubai in the late autumn before finishing 12th in Qatar where only a 3rd round 76 stopped him from seriously contending.

Finally, last year’s winner Daniel Hillier had undoubtedly been trending ahead of his maiden DP World Tour victory last July. 5th at the KLM Open and 3rd the week before at the BMW International Open was form for everyone to see, and he duly stepped up to the plate here with a closing round of 66:

  • 2023, Daniel Hillier: 42/MC/51/MC/12/23/MC/MC/MC/5/MC/3
  • 2022, Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/20/41/8/42/35/MC/MC/12/23/33
  • 2021, Richard Bland: 16/7/2/40/35/MC/52/MC/MC/8/MC/27
  • 2020, Renato Paratore: 48/40/21/36/19/2/21/MC/27/74/47/15
  • 2019, Marcus Kinhult: 22/30/71/22/20/MC/MC/18/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018, Eddie Pepperell: 43/51/DQ/MC/2/6/59/9/56/6/2/44
  • 2017, Paul Dunne: 33/30/MC/MC/13/54/26/MC/9/14/70/14
  • 2016, Alex Noren: MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2/1/34/11
  • 2015, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/3/MC/MC/77/2/17/44/3/30/3/MC

As an additional angle, we can also look at Rasmus Hojgaard’s win here at The Belfry at the 2020 UK Championship:

  • 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard: 13/49/1/MC/MC/MC/MC/6/MC/2/6/3

The young Dane was a fairly obvious winner with incoming form of 2/6/3 over his past 3 starts and justified his 14/1 quotes in the end via a play-off.

Course Form:

Aside from Angel Cabrera, our course winners here had patchy history at best at The Belfry prior to lifting their respective trophies:

  • 2023: Daniel Hillier: Debut
  • 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen: 17/57
  • 2021: Richard Bland: 46/31/MC/MC/19
  • 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2008: Gonzalo Fdez Castano: 14/57
  • 2007: Lee Westwood: 54/57/MC/27/MC
  • 2006: Johan Edfors: Debut
  • 2003: Paul Casey: 12/MC
  • 2002: Angel Cabrera: 9/2
  • 2001, Henrik Stenson: Debut
  • 2000: Jose Maria Olazabal: Debut

For me, the Belfry is a good test of golf and scoring isn’t likely to get out of control, despite a pleasant enough weather forecast. Historically straightforward greens of excellent quality will encourage birdies though to those who can keep the ball in play, and overall I’d favour those who can gain most of their strokes from tee-to-green and with their approach play, as opposed to on the putting surfaces themselves.

My selections are as follows:

Guido Migliozzi 2pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

The inclusion of Tyrrell Hatton in this week’s field has undoubtedly mixed the betting market up with the Englishman clear favourite at a very best of 15/2 at the time of writing. Whether you agree with LIV players sporadically appearing in DP World Tour events is a debate for another day, however what it does do is present us with the age old dilemma of deciding whether a quality player dropping down (let’s be honest here) to this level will simply mop up – we certainly saw a lot of that towards the end of last year.

Hatton got off the mark at LIV Nashville back in June and was in the mix again at Valderrama a month later, however his efforts since then ring a few alarm bells. A missed cut at The Open wasn’t what he was looking for I’m sure, and LIV’s trip to the UK last month ended with the Englishman gifting Jon Rahm the title by three-putting the final hole. 25th last time out at LIV Greenbrier is nothing special and he makes his debut here this week on a course that tests everyone’s patience and may test Tyrrell’s that little bit more than most.

Of course with Hatton in the field that’s pushed the prices out for the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard, Tom McKibbin and Thorbjorn Olesen, who tees it up this side of the Atlantic for a second consecutive week. Matt Wallace also drops a level this week, however my preference is to start my team a little further down with Guido Migliozzi who obliged for us back in June at the KLM Open.

Last seen finishing a creditable 22nd at the Olympics, Guido returns to competitive action this week on a course where he’s shown some real ability in the past. 2nd on debut back in 2021, the Italian was almost the forgotten man of the play-off as the world willed on Richard Bland to take the title, which he duly did. 28th last year doesn’t tell the whole story either as he led going into Sunday before limping home in 77 strokes in the end. Nevertheless it’s clear that he can compete on this course.

Victory in the Netherlands in an immaculately played 3-man play-off may well have exorcised any lingering demons from that the 27 year-old may have had from his effort here last year, and that 4th victory at DP World Tour level singles him out as one of the very few in this field who I think could take the favourite on this week.

Twice so far in his career we’ve seen Guido back up a win with another in the space of a few months – he won twice on the Alps Tour in 2018 between July and September, then repeated the feat at this level between March and June the following year – so seeing him prove victorious again here this week isn’t out of the question by any means. RESULT: MC

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Yannik Paul 2pts EW 45/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Slightly further down in the betting, Yannik Paul appeals on a course where he’s shown both aptitude and progression since making his debut a couple of years ago, plus his past two efforts since the DP World’s short summer break have also offered some encouragement.

16th on his Belfry debut back in 2022, the German improved on that effort last year eventually finishing 8th, and on both occasions he’s topped the field on the Ball-Striking metric whilst ranking 4th and 1st for Total Driving. In Strokes Gained parlance that equates to 5th on both starts for Off the Tee and 5th & 3rd for Tee to Green – in simple terms it would appear that The Belfry suits his eye.

More challenging tests suit Paul in my view – he manages to eke 15-under out of a fairly stringent setup in Mallorca for his maiden and, to date, only DP World Tour win. 6th at last year’s French Open is another case in point, as was 10th at the Indian Open at the end of March which rates as his best effort since the earliest parts of the season.

43rd at the Czech Masters after a month off showed some promise after a slow start, with middle rounds of 65 and 67 putting him on the fringes of contention before a poor Sunday; 19th last week contained a third round 66, and with any rust well and truly removed he could progress further this week in my view. RESULT: MC

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Haotong Li 1pt EW 90/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I backed Haotong Li on his last start at the Scottish Open at the beginning of July, mainly on the strength of Renaissance offering him a little more width off the tee which could enable him to shine on and around the greens. 21st was the result in a much, much stronger field than this, however how he navigated to that position is ultimately what gets him the nod here on a test which in theory suits less.

3rd for SG Off the Tee, 3rd for SG Tee to Green and 3rd for GIR in Scotland were eye-opening long game stats for a player like Li, however his normally strong, if streaky, putting game was very close to the worst on display – and that came just 7 days after putting really nicely in Germany for a tie for 20th. That’s golf, as Li himself his reminded us in more colourful language in the past.

Now him competing at The Belfry relies on a similar set of statistics from tee to green, and him truly contending for victory will require a little more compliance from the putter than that which we saw on his last appearance, however 9th for SG Approach for the season suggests there’s a little more substance in that effort than I might have given him credit for, and having ranked inside the top 8 for SG Putting on three of his last eight outings, it’s clear that his putting hasn’t deserted him altogether.

31st here on course debut at the 2020 UK Championship is by far his best effort at The Belfry, however a sparkling course record hasn’t been a pre-requisite for recent winners here and I’m happy to take a chance on him this week. RESULT: T46

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 100/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I backed Dan Bradbury last week in Denmark to no avail with the Englishman tailing off over the weekend, however I’ll give him another chance this week on home soil and what is a far more familiar assignment.

The fusion of two sets of nine holes in Aarhus was always going mean a certain amount of guesswork, the Belfry though is a known quantity that should suit players like Bradbury who flush their irons and his debut effort here last July, where he finished 8th, gives hope that he can up his game once again in front of a far more amenable crowd.

5th now on Tour for SG Approach in a season where he’s missed almost twice as many more cuts than he’s made is impressive, and in the past 10 months he’s led the field on that metric on 3 occasions and ranked second twice which makes him an interesting proposition once again this week.

A fortnight ago in Prague was another case in point with the Wakefield man topping the SG Approach charts on his way to a 23rd place finish and more of the same this week could see him in the mix on a course that fits his game beautifully. RESULT: MC

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Justin Walters 1pt EW 200/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally, it’s an all too familiar scenario for Justin Walters as the DP World Tour season heads towards the autumn events where cards are won and lost for some and starts booked for others in the big-money season-ending events.

At 203rd in the Race to Dubai and a status that gives him access to limited DP World Tour starts at best, it’s very much the former rather than the latter when it comes to the South African’s aspirations for the rest of 2024, however he’s a past master at finding a way to sneak into the top 115 (or thereabouts) as events start to dry up. The Portugal Masters was his saviour more than once, however with that event off the schedule this year he’ll need another plan of attack.

Last week’s 10th place finish in Denmark gives him access to the British Masters field which his Category 20 status wouldn’t have got close to, and he’ll be as aware as anyone that this presents a massive opportunity to improve his chances of a better category next year – or even a full card should he do something really special.

Last week’s effort was fuelled by ranking 7th for Scrambling, which isn’t a bad attribute to have around The Belfry, and long game Strokes Gained ranks of 16th for Off the Tee, 6th for Approach and 5th for Tee to Green also fit this week’s task very nicely. Of course last week’s effort could be a flash in the pan and little more, however any continuation of that kind of level could see him threaten an each-way place here.

Course form is excellent: 2nd at the 2020 UK Championship saw the 43 year-old lead the field for SG Putting if the post-Covid data collection can be trusted; more recently 3rd in this event 2022 where he topped SG Approach is far more trustworthy. and he also finished 23rd here last July in a season where he finished better than that on just one other occasion. RESULT: T53

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:45BST 26.8.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.