Congratulations if you were on-board Kevin Yu at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week at Monday best prices of 110/1 (with Betfred). A player I’ve admired for a while and stated was one of the best young talents not to have won on the PGA Tour, he got the job done from no form at all. It happens! I landed a full each-way place for the week with Lucas Glover’s T3 at 50/1, so we move forward.
The Black Desert Championship sees the PGA Tour return to Utah for the first time since 1963. A brand new golf course and supporting facility including an 800 room hotel, the public course was opened in 2023 with fairways chiselled out of fields of black lava rock that had to be blasted into golf formations.
As per the Sanderson Farms last week, the Black Desert Championship is a very, very weak PGA Tour field with Chris Kirk and Lucas Glover the only players from the World’s top 50 in attendance. Behind them Nick Taylor, Stephan Jaeger, Erik van Rooyen, Ben Griffin and Kurt Kitayama are within the World’s top 70.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Black Desert Resort Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: The Black Desert Resort is a brand new facility built in Ivins, Utah. Set 120 miles North-West of Las Vegas, Ivins sits 3,100 feet above sea level. Part of the Greater Zion region, this whole area has plenty of golf courses which cater for the amateur golfer. Black Desert is Tom Weiskopf’s 93rd and final golf course design prior to his untimely death in 2022. Black Desert Resort is owned by Reef Capital Partners, who are bringing the PGA Tour to their resort for the next 4 years, plus the LPGA early in 2025.
Black Desert Resort, Ivins, Utah: Designer: Tom Weiskopf / Phil Smith, 2023; Course Type: Resort, Desert, Altitude, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,371 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 2; Number of Sand Bunkers: 44; Acres of Fairway: 51; Fairways: Dominator Bentgrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass, 2″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average 007XL Bentgrass.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Black Desert Resort and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale – Waste Management Phoenix Open
North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-2023 Farmers Insurance Open
Course Overview: The basic details of Black Desert Resort are that it’s a 7,371 yard, Par 71. However take 6% off yardages due to the course being over 3,000 feet above sea level and in reality the professionals will be playing a mid 6,900 yard Par 71, which features 3 reachable par-5s, and 2 reachable par 4s.
Fairways and Greens are Bentgrass – pretty unique in Utah where Poa Annua dominates, with Kentucky Bluegrass rough quoted at 2″ in height. Greens are large at 7,000 sq.ft average featuring 007XL Bentgrass. Beyond the rough, the unique nature of this golf course is the fact that stray balls enter a lava field. It’s effectively desert golf though as rocks, sand and even cacti that we find on most desert set-ups in Western United States are replaced here by rocky, black lava outcrops.
Knowing there would be lava in play, and knowing that winds here in the Utah desert can reach 40 mph, course designers Weiskopf and Smith came up with a routing that provided plenty of room to swing away. That width therefore provides strategic options for plotters and it also allows plenty of room to avoid the lava and allow for power play for the longer hitters. Under the fairways, sand has been positioned above the lava which provides excellent drainage and the firm, bouncy conditions that are the hallmarks of a desert course in Utah.
On a resort course designed for amateur visitors the only defence on this golf course are the desert winds which can be pretty severe here. The forecast though is for light winds pretty much throughout, so I’m expecting low scoring. A course flyover is available here.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | First Round Leader.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Keith Mitchell, Lucas Glover, Erik van Rooyen, Patton Kizzire, K.H. Lee, Seamus Power, Daniel Berger, Chez Reavie, Nick Taylor and Beau Hossler.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Ivins, Utah is here.
It won’t surprise you to read that the weather in South-West Utah will be hot. 30-31 degrees Celsius – 90-91 Fahrenheit – temperatures will be on tap every day. The real defence of this course is wind that can howl up to 40 mph quite often. However winds this week look light, with the standard desert increase in breeze for the afternoon starters – bear this in mind for First Round Leader. I’m expecting a winning score around -22/262 or lower.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Wyndham Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Cameron Champ; 2) Alex Smalley; 3) Ryan Palmer; 4) Austin Smotherman; 5) Scott Gutschewski; 6) Chris Kirk / K.H. Lee; 8) Michael Thorbjornsen; 9) Bud Cauley / Chan Kim; 11) Keith Mitchell; 12) Ryan Fox / Luke List / Greyson Sigg; 15) Wesley Bryan / Will Gordon / Stephan Jaeger; 18) Joel Dahmen / Norman Xiong; 20) Mark Hubbard; 21) Daniel Berger; 22) Chandler Phillips; 23) Patrick Fishburn; 24) Kevin Dougherty; 25) Kevin Chappell / Seamus Power / Nick Taylor.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tom Whitney; 2) Ben Kohles; 3) Patton Kizzire; 4) Lucas Glover; 5) Andrew Novak; 6) Mike Weir; 7) Pierceson Coody; 8) Brice Garnett / Nick Hardy; 10) Joe Highsmith / Chris Kirk; 12) Phillip Knowles / Keith Mitchell; 14) Callum Tarren; 15) Doug Ghim / Justin Lower; 17) Michael Kim / Henrik Norlander / David Skinns; 20) Ryan Fox; 21) Mac Meissner / Nick Taylor; 23) Patrick Rodgers; 24) Kevin Chappell; 25) Austin Smotherman.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Camilo Villegas; 2) Chan Kim; 3) Ben Griffin; 4) Brandon Wu; 5) Adam Svensson; 6) Martin Laird; 7) Patton Kizzire / Robby Shelton; 9) Seamus Power / Andrew Novak / Ben Taylor / Kevin Tway; 13) Patrick Fishburn / Greyson Sigg; 15) Erik van Rooyen; 16) S.H. Kim; 17) Peter Malnati; 18) Beau Hossler / Chris Kirk; 20) Brice Garnett; 21) Zac Blair; 22) Mike Weir; 23) J.B. Holmes; 24) Trace Crowe; 25) Kevin Chappell / Chez Reavie.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Patton Kizzire; 2) Keith Mitchell; 3) Andrew Novak; 4) Austin Smotherman; 5) Chan Kim; 6) Kevin Chappell; 7) Joe Highsmith; 8) Mike Weir; 9) Lucas Glover / Seamus Power; 11) Doug Ghim / Beau Hossler / Chris Kirk; 14) Patrick Fishburn / Henrik Norlander; 16) Joseph Bramlett; 17) Justin Lower / Greyson Sigg; 19) Ben Kohles; 20) Bud Cauley / Erik van Rooyen; 22) Ryan Fox; 23) Michael Kim / Adam Svensson; 25) Michael Kim / Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) David Lipsky; 2) Jacob Bridgeman / Stephan Jaeger; 4) Patton Kizzire / Taylor Montgomery / Kevin Tway; 7) Michael Thorbjornsen / Norman Xiong; 9) Lucas Glover / Chandler Phillips; 11) Sami Valimaki; 12) Bud Cauley; 13) Kelly Kraft / Justin Lower; 15) Wilson Furr; 16) Chris Kirk; 17) Wesley Bryan / Harry Hall; 19) Seamus Power; 20) Keith Mitchell; 21) Luke List; 22) David Skinns; 23) Alexander Bjork / Vincent Whaley; 25) Ben Griffin.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Patton Kizzire; 2) Lucas Glover / Keith Mitchell; 4) Seamus Power; 5) Justin Lower; 6) Bud Cauley; 7) Andrew Novak; 8) Chandler Philips; 9) Wesley Bryan / Austin Smotherman; 11) Patrick Fishburn; 12) Kevin Chappell; 13) Chris Kirk; 14) Chan Kim; 15) Michael Thorbjornsen / Vincent Whaley; 17) Kevin Tway; 18) Harry Hall / Beau Hossler / Stephan Jaeger / Matti Schmid; 22) David Lipsky; 23) Greyson Sigg; 24) Joe Highsmith / Brandon Wu.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
3 – Lucas Glover, Ryan Moore.
2 – Chris Kirk, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
1 – Daniel Berger, Cameron Champ, Emiliano Grillo, Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Trey Mullinax, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Streelman.
It’s a step into the unknown this week with the Black Desert Resort Championship. This will be desert golf at altitude on a short course which features extremely wide fairways, large greens, and a couple of driveable par-4s. Throw in 3 reachable par-5s and I’m expecting low scores this week in Utah.
I’m a believer in Ryan Fox, especially in this grade of company on the PGA Tour. A winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (2022) and the BMW PGA Championship (2023) across 4 DP World Tour wins, Fox knows how to win big events and his form in the United States is definitely improving.
11th last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship was a strong result on yet another new course – something virtually the whole field will be up against this week at Black Desert Resort. From a Strokes Gained perspective 6th for Off the Tee, 12th for Approach plus 18th for Putting in Jackson, Fox’s game is rounding nicely and I think he will the love the wide fairways and low scoring on offer here at Black Desert.
Pretty much a rookie when it comes to desert-style golf in the United States, I’m interested to see that he was 6th after 36 holes at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February before finishing 41st. TPC Scottsdale is a Tom Weiskopf design located at altitude in the Arizona desert and receives a field of very high quality. Fox also has a desert golf course win on the DP World Tour at the 2022 Ras al Khaimah Classic played at Al Hamra Golf Club.
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Lucas Glover 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
I’ll stick with Lucas Glover for a second consecutive week. T3 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship – his best ever result at the Country Club of Jackson – from a Strokes Gained perspective Lucas ranked 6th for Approach, 8th for Tee to Green and fascinatingly 15th for Putting. Naturally the short stick is the weakest part of Glover’s game, so it’s eye-opening seeing him ranking in this field within the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting and top 3 for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-week tracker.
A 6-time winner on the PGA Tour, which includes the 2009 U.S. Open plus the 2023 FedEx St Jude Invitational (FEC Playoff event), Glover has a huge advantage over most in this field, i.e. his ability to get across the line, plus after playing all of the 2024 Majors due to his 2 wins last summer, Glover will see this week as a huge opportunity to potentially rack-up his 7th win, take a top 10 spot in the FedEx Fall Series List, plus guarantee his spot in the World’s top 50 players by the close of 2024. The win or the OWGR top 50 would garner a 2025 Masters invitation pre-Christmas.
From a desert form perspective, Glover’s one and only Nationwide Tour win (Korn Ferry now) was the 2003 Gila River Classic played at the Whirlwind Golf Club in the neighbouring state of Arizona. His form at the relatively nearby TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is also interesting. A short Par 71 featuring Bentgrass greens, Lucas has finished 3rd (2017), 7th (2019) and 9th (2020) across 3 of his last 4 visits there. 3 of Lucas’ 6 PGA Tour wins have also been on Bentgrass greens across Bethpage Black (2009), Quail Hollow (2011) and TPC Deere Run (2021).
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Michael Thorbjornsen 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
Michael Thorbjornsen should thrive for me this week. With plenty of space off the tee and a couple of driveable par-4s, Thorbjornsen will be able to use his undoubted ability off the tee. At 317 yards Driving Distance he sits behind only Cameron Champ and Rory McIlroy for length off the tee on the PGA Tour, and backing that up across my 8-week Stokes Gained Tracker he ranks 7th for Off the Tee. He was also pretty straight at the Country Club of Jackson last week on his way to 9th spot.
Born in Ohio and based in Wellesley, Massachusetts, the Bentgrass fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass rough and Bentgrass greens will be very much to Michael’s liking this week. Plus it’s well worth noting that despite his lack of professional experience he’s still finished 4th (2022) at the Travelers Championship and 2nd (2024) at the John Deere Classic. Those are 2 events at least a grade or in the case of the Travelers three-times up on this week’s Black Desert Championship.
A 7-time amateur winner with victories across Illinois (twice), Massachusetts, New Jersey and on his Stanford University (2023 Pac-12 Men’s Golf Championships) course which features Bentgrass greens, I think that Black Desert Resort will be right up Michael’s street. Plus his last amateur win this year came at the Cabo Collegiate Invitational, played at the Mexican desert golf course at the Twin Dolphin Club.
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Chandler Phillips 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Chandler Phillips is a rookie who has impressed me in 2024 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go well this week in Utah.
A check of his Korn Ferry results in 2023 highlights a player who finished in the top 7 on Bentgrass greens in Indiana, Ohio, Montana and New Jersey – although his Korn Ferry victory actually came on Paspalum in the Bahamas. The Bentgrass fairways and greens plus Kentucky Bluegrass rough looks to be agronomy that the 27 year-old Texan will respond to.
Across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tracker Phillips sits in the top 10 for both Putting and Current Form, plus he’s been driving the ball brilliantly since his visit to the Scottish Open back in July. That will help access the driveable par-4s and set him up in fairway positions where he is able to use his top notch approach play – he currently ranks 3rd in Proximity to Hole across the whole of 2024 with only Joel Dahmen and Scottie Scheffler above him.
I’m also a believer that the Par 71 format will aid Chandler this week in Utah as within this field he ranks 6th for Par 4 Birdie or Better Conversion (16th on Tour) and 12th for Birdie Average (28th on Tour).
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At the price I’m happy to take a chance on Nick Taylor this week. The Canadian is a 4-time winner on the PGA Tour, with 2 of those wins coming in 2023 and 2024. Wins also come off very little form – make that MC-49-MC-71 in the preceding outing. Taylor is a definite specialist who simply clicks on the right tracks.
Take our free to use (no pay wall) Predictor Model into account and Taylor sits 10th overall in my model. As part of that ranking, in this field, Nick ranks 1st for results on West Coast Courses, 1st for results on Short Courses, 2nd for results on Desert Courses and 2nd for Results at Altitude on the PGA Tour over the past 5 years. He also sits 1st for results on Tom Weiskopf designs having finished 2nd (2023) and 1st (2024) at TPC Scottsdale over the past couple of years. As we know TPC Scottsdale is a 7,300 yard, Par 71, located at altitude in the Arizona desert.
Taylor is here to defend his 51-60 (Top 10) position in the FedEx Fall Series List, and like Lucas Glover will be targeting a jump back into the OWGR top 50 – he currently sits 55th – so as to garner a 2025 Masters invitation pre-Christmas.
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I’ll close with a desert golf and altitude golf specialist who needs results to gain full Top 125 playing privileges for 2025 or earn full Top 150 Conditional PGA Tout Status – step forward Martin Laird.
Last week in Jackson he ranked 13th for Tee to Green and yet struggled on the Champion Bermudagrass greens on which he’s never been a favourite. Bentgrass-based greens for me have always been Martin’s best putting surface and his desert golf record is the stuff of legend, so he must be looking forward to a visit to Black Desert Resort. Montreux: 4th (2008), 2nd (2009), 6th (2014), 7th (2016), 15th (2018), 7th (2019); Old Greenwood: 3rd (2022); TPC Scottsdale: 3rd (2011), 19th (2014), 5th (2015), 7th (2017), 9th (2018), 14th (2022). TPC Summerlin: 1st (2009), 2nd (2010), 18th (2014), 1st (2020), 11th (2021).
6th after 36 holes last week – finished 48th – at the Sanderson Farms highlights to me that the Colorado resident has a game that is percolating. This week suits the Scot far, far more in my opinion.
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