Course Guide: As is the want of the Western Golf Association who organise the BMW Championship, we have visited a different golf course since the tournament moved away from Cog Hill in 2011. Again we visit an infrequently visited venue on the PGA Tour this week – Castle Pines Golf Course in Colorado. It’s a Jack Nicklaus design which traditionally hosted The International on the PGA Tour, the week before the PGA Championship in August.
Course headlines are that it’s the longest in PGA Tour history – a Par 72 playing 8,130 yards in length. It’s worth remembering though that the course is located in Castle Rock which is higher in terms of altitude than Denver – with the highest point on the course being 6,400 feet – which is 1.2 miles above sea level. So the ball will fly a very long way this week at the BMW Championship.
Castle Pines Golf Club, Castle Rock, Colorado: Designer Jack Nicklaus 1981 with Jack Nicklaus 2022; Course Type: Mid-Score, Short Length, Altitude; Par: 72; Length: 8,130 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 10; Number of Sand Bunkers: 77; Acres of Fairway: 27; Fairways: Cool Season Mix, Bentgrass, Poa Annua with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass, Perennial Ryegrass with Tall Fescue 4+”; Greens: 5,600 sq.ft average featuring T1 Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 13ft.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Castle Pines and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- Castle Pines: Average 26-30 yards wide.
- TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
- Sedgefield CC: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
- TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
- TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
- Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
- TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
- Pinehurst Number 2: Average 35-45 yards wide.
- Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
- Hamilton G&CC: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:29; 325:27; 350:28.
- Colonial: Average 25-30 yards wide.
- Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:32; 300:31; 325:30; 350:29.
- Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
- Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
- Memorial Park: 30–40 yards at 300 yards.
- Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
- TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
- Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
- PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
- Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
- TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
- Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
- Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
- Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
- Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
- Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus designs include:
- Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
- Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
- Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
- Muirfield Village – The Memorial Tournament
- Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020 onwards
- PGA National – The Honda Classic
- PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
- PGA West – Stadium Course – The American Express
- Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
- The Concession – WGC Workday Championship 2021
- Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 + 2024 PGA Championship
Course Overview: I haven’t seen Castle Pines Golf Club on the PGA Tour and I’ve covered the PGA Tour since 2009, but there are some clues to work from. THE INTERNATIONAL – yes annoyingly it was titled in capitals – used to be played here year-in, year-out with its traditional place in the PGA Tour schedule being the week before the PGA Championship in August. A tournament which used the Modified Stableford scoring format – as per the Barracuda Championship these days – the champions list here includes Greg Norman (1989), Davis Love III (1990 & 2003), Jose Maria Olazabal (1991), Phil Mickelson (1993 & 1997), Vijay Singh (1998), Ernie Els (2000) and Retief Goosen (2005). The tournament dropped off the schedule after Dean Wilson won here in 2006 – but now it returns, although clearly it’s been modernised for golf in 2024.
The basic details of Castle Pines GC are that it’s an 8,130 yard, Par 72. It played as a 7,619 yard Par 72 in 2006, but a Jack Nicklaus Design inspired renovation in 2022 has added the mere matter of 511 yards. However take 11% off yardages due to the course being 1.2 miles above sea level and in reality the professionals will be playing a mid 7,200 yard Par 72, which features 3 reachable par-5s, with the par-5 17th playing sub 500 yards, despite being uphill. There are plenty of short par-4s as well, with short irons and wedges the order of the day.
Castle Pines is also a tough walk featuring 400 feet of elevation change. Think Plantation Course at Kapalua and Augusta National in terms of topography. Fairways are fairly generous at up to 30 yards wide and the agronomy is pretty Northern Californian with Kentucky Bluegrass, Perennial Ryegrass and green complexes which feature Bentgrass Poa Annua mix. At 5,600 sq.ft on average they are considerably larger than TPC Southwind green complexes last week, on a course which effectively is shorter – on the basis of altitude and the fact it’s a Par 72, rather than a Par 70. So don’t be fooled by the headline yardage.
Also worthy of note is that rough is quoted at over 4 inches in length and that this part of Colorado in August does have a habit of throwing up late afternoon thunderstorms.
BMW Championship Winners: 2023: Viktor Hovland (-17); 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27); 2020: Jon Rahm (-4); 2019: Justin Thomas (-25); 2018: Keegan Bradley(-20); 2017: Marc Leishman (-23); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2015: Jason Day (-22); 2014: Billy Horschel (-15); 2013: Zach Johnson (-16); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-20); 2011: Justin Rose (-13); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-9).
OWGR of BMW Championship Winners: 2023: Hovland 5; 2022: Cantlay 4; 2021: Cantlay 10; 2020: Rahm 2; 2019: Thomas 10; 2018: Bradley 66; 2017: Leishman 23.
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
- 2023 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 5th.
- 2022 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 51st, Round 2: 39th, Round 3: 6th.
- 2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2018 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 12th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 6th.
- 2017 – Marc Leishman: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2013 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
- 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2011 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
- 2023 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2022 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
- 2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 6 ahead.
- 2018 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2017 – Marc Leishman: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 ahead.
- 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 4 ahead, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
- 2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
- 2013 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
- 2011 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: level, Round 3: 4 ahead.
- 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
Incoming form of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
- Viktor Hovland: 13th St Jude/13th Open/25th Scottish Open/29th Travelers.
- Patrick Cantlay: 57th St Jude/2nd Detroit/8th Open/4th Scottish Open.
- Patrick Cantlay: 11th Northern Trust/23rd St Jude/MC Open/13th Travelers.
- Jon Rahm: 6th Northern Trust/13th PGA/52nd St Jude/1st Memorial.
- Justin Thomas: 12th Northern Trust/12th St Jude/11th Open/9th Scottish Open.
- Keegan Bradley: 49th Dell/34th Northern Trust/42nd PGA/4th Canadian Open.
- Marc Leishman: 3rd Dell Tech/MC Northern Trust/13th PGA/41st Bridgestone.
- Dustin Johnson: 8th Deutsche/18th Barclays/MC PGA/2nd Canadian Open.
- Jason Day: 12th Deutsche/1st Barclays/1st PGA/12th Bridgestone.
- Billy Horschel: 2nd Deutsche/ MC Barclays/47th Wyndham/59th PGA.
- Zach Johnson: 27th Deutsche/5th Wyndham/8th PGA/4th Bridgestone.
- Rory McIlroy: 1st Deutsche/24th Barclays/1st PGA/5th Bridgestone.
- Justin Rose: 68th Boston/6th Barclays/MC PGA/33rd Bridgestone.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Nick Dunlap, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Byeong Hun An, Wyndham Clark and Rory McIlroy.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
BMW Championship Winning Prices: 2023: Hovland 18/1; 2022: Cantlay 16/1; 2021: Cantlay 25/1; 2020: Rahm 10/1; 2019: Thomas 16/1; 2018: Bradley 140/1; 2017: Leishman 45/1; 2016: D Johnson 10/1; 2015: Day 15/2; 2014: Horschel 66/1; 2013: Z Johnson 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 7/1; 2011: Rose 66/1; 2010: D Johnson 33/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 17/1; Overall Average: 36/1.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Castle Rock, Colorado is here.
We move from Memphis to Colorado this week but the weather remains great. 28-32 degrees Celsius – 82-90 Fahrenheit – will greet the players, but with Castle Rock at 1.2 miles above sea-level there won’t be any humidity. Winds are light, increasing to moderate on Saturday, but this area does see thunderstorm activity in the late afternoons, so the course may (40-50% chance) get a dousing or two during tournament play.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Rocket Mortgage Classic / Italian Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Russell Henley; 2) Viktor Hovland / Cameron Young; 4) Hideki Matsuyama / Adam Scott; 6) Davis Thompson; 7) Scottie Scheffler; 8) Max Greyserman / Tommy Fleetwood; 10) Austin Eckroat; 11) Ludvig Aberg; 12) Jason Day; 13) Shane Lowry / Rory McIlroy; 15) Adam Hadwin; 16) Robert McIntyre / Collin Morikawa; 18) Si Woo Kim / Xander Schauffele; 20) Taylor Pendrith; 21) Keegan Bradley / Sahith Theegala; 23) Corey Conners / Sungjae Im; 25) Cameron Davis.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Shane Lowry; 4) Patrick Cantlay / Billy Horschel; 6) Russell Henley; 7) Corey Conners; 8) Taylor Pendrith; 9) Tony Finau / Collin Morikawa; 11) Sam Burns; 12) Ludvig Aberg / Sepp Straka; 14) Eric Cole; 15) Tom Hoge / Hideki Matsuyama; 17) Tommy Fleetwood; 18) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Chris Kirk; 20) Nick Dunlap; 21) Aaron Rai; 22) Jason Day; 23) Byeong Hun An; 24) Cameron Young; 25) Adam Scott / Will Zalatoris.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Cameron Davis; 3) Adam Scott; 4) Rory McIlroy; 5) Patrick Cantlay / Eric Cole / Cameron Young; 8) Byeong Hun An; 9) Jason Day / Denny McCarthy / Alex Noren; 12) Sam Burns / Xander Schauffele; 14) Hideki Matsuyama; 15) Sungjae Im / Davis Thompson; 17) Chris Kirk; 18) Justin Thomas; 19) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 20) Collin Morikawa; 21) Keegan Bradley / Billy Horschel / Sahith Theegala; 24) Aaron Rai; 25) Wyndham Clark / Thomas Detry / J.T. Poston.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Patrick Cantlay / Hideki Matsuyama; 5) Adam Scott; 6) Shane Lowry / Cameron Young; 8) Russell Henley; 9) Collin Morikawa; 10) Taylor Pendrith; 11) Billy Horschel; 12) Jason Day; 13) Corey Conners / Aaron Rai; 15) Eric Cole; 16) Tommy Fleetwood / Chris Kirk; 18) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 19) Robert MacIntyre; 20) Ludvig Aberg / Davis Thompson; 22) Byeong Hun An / Max Greyserman / Sepp Straka; 25) Sungjae Im.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sam Burns; 2) Wyndham Clark; 3) Matt Fitzpatrick / Sungjae Im; 5) Jason Day / Xander Schauffele; 7) Russell Henley; 8) Adam Scott; 9) Tony Finau / Max Greyserman; 11) Eric Cole; 12) Corey Conners; 13) Austin Eckroat; 14) Collin Morikawa; 15) Aaron Rai; 16) Davis Thompson; 17) Max Homa; 18) Byeong Hun An; 19) Sahith Theegala; 20) Akshay Bhatia / Thomas Detry; 22) Viktor Hovland / Justin Thomas; 24) Billy Horschel / Scottie Scheffler. 19) Max Homa; 20) Byeong Hun An / Davis Thompson; 22) Austin Eckroat / Collin Morikawa; 24) Russell Henley; 25) Thomas Detry.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Adam Scott; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Jason Day / Collin Morikawa; 7) Max Greyserman / Russell Henley; 9) Patrick Cantlay / Eric Cole; 11) Sungjae Im; 12) Aaron Rai; 13) Corey Conners; 14) Davis Thompson; 15) Billy Horschel / Cameron Young; 17) Taylor Pendrith; 18) Byeong Hun An; 19) Hideki Matsuyama; 20) Tommy Fleetwood; 21) Ludvig Aberg / Shane Lowry; 23) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Cam Davis / Matt Fitzpatrick.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Castle Pines Golf Club plays from when it hosted The International on the PGA Tour:
Retief Goosen (2005): “Well, it’s similar altitude to what I grew up in, high altitude. So, you know, everybody here coming here this week, we all feel like animals hitting the ball 330 yards comfortably. It’s amazing how far the ball can go over here.
It probably reminds me of some places in South Africa, the courses I played, not quite as hilly as this. But it’s a course we need to be quite fit to get around. You know, you get drained out here pretty quickly with the altitude and the hills here to walk. So fit players generally here this week I feel do pretty well.
Yeah, it is quite a change to what we’re used to. I think this is probably the hilliest course we play on Tour and the altitude as well, so sometimes it’s difficult to trust yourself. Like No. 11, you’ve got 209 yards or something and you’re hitting a 9 iron. So it’s hard to judge sometimes how far the ball is going to go. It’s good to get a couple of practice rounds in and get the feel of how far the ball goes. We generally just take ten percent off the yardage and go from there.
On the first hole I think, the second shot, I think I had probably somewhere around 250 yards and you’re hitting 4 iron. It’s hard to believe sometimes the ball is going to go that far and get there. You always feel like you have to work extra hard, but you’ve just got to trust it that it’s going to go that far.
You know, 1 is a driver and 5 iron or 4 iron and the other one you’ve got to hit 2 iron or 3 wood in. I mean, they are all great holes. There’s a few holes out there you’ve got to be careful, the third, you know, is very tricky with the river running through the fairway there. That’s a hole that you generally are not too upset with a par.
The par 3, 4th, is a really tough par 3 now with the new tee at the back. That’s a much longer hole, not quite a push over like it used to be. 9 could be dangerous. 9 and 18, obviously out of bounds left and 9 with the hazard down the left. Those are the holes you’ve sort of got to be careful. 10 I would probably say is the toughest hole on the course I think. Generally if you miss the fairway there, you don’t have much chance of getting on to the green.”
Rod Pampling (2004): “No, once you hit the fairways out here, you certainly can be a little more aggressive, and that’s only if you go at a few more pins. And obviously with the rain we had yesterday, the course, it’s playing a little bit softer. So you could be a bit more aggressive.
Well, for this week, generally you’re going to get a late afternoon storm. So your first round generally goes into Friday, which it’s a long day, and especially with how difficult it is to walk around here with not much oxygen; it takes a lot out of you.
Well, as I said, I didn’t miss a fairway. So thankfully I wasn’t in the rough. I’m sure there will be a few instances where I get in there. It’s definitely a little bit thicker. I think we’ve had a little bit more rain here in the last few years, so the rough is definitely thicker. I think that rain yesterday kind of laid it down a little bit. So it wasn’t as bad, but it was still heavy.
Ernie Els (2004): “You’ve got to try and play the birdie holes well. You need those par 5s and a couple of short par 4s where you have really got to try and take advantage, because they have some good ones out there, too. No. 10 is a tough hole. 18 has become a really difficult par 4 and some other ones.
This course a little different than other normal tour events, the long hitter, you have to watch out for him, and the guy that can get on to the par 5s in two shots. If he can get there in two shots, obviously you’ve got a chance for five points, an easy two points. A guy that hits the ball high, you have to look for them this week.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2023 – Harman/McIlroy – Groups 11/10 -5/65 – 14/1 & 40/1.
- 2022 – Bradley – Group 6 – 7/64 – 80/1.
- 2021 – Burns/McIlroy/Rahm – Groups 8/9/21 -8/64 – 45/1, 33/1 & 14/1.
- 2020 – Matsuyama – Group 22 – 3/67 – 40/1.
- 2019 – Kokrak/Thomas – Group 16/Group 7 -7/65 – 55/1 & 20/1.
- 2018 – McIlroy/Woods – Group 9/Group 2 -8/62 – 22/1 & 33/1.
- 2017 – Leishman – AM -9/62 – 40/1.
- 2016 – Castro – AM -7/65.
- 2015 – Day -10/61.
- 2014 – McIlroy/Spieth/Woodland -3/67.
- 2013 – Snedeker -8/63.
- 2012 – DeLaet/McIlroy/Simpson/Van Pelt -8/64.
- 2011 – Rose -8/63.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 4 – Jason Day, Max Homa, Rory McIlroy.
- 3 – Collin Morikawa.
- 2 – Keegan Bradley, Cam Davis, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott.
- 1 – Akshay Bhatia, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Hoge, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Matthieu Pavon, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas.
The BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and has a number of trends that are intriguing. In an event where the focus of the media and watching public is as to who will make it to the Tour Championship, recent champions are split down the middle when it comes to FEC starting position. Viktor Hovland (7th in 2023), Patrick Cantlay (7th in 2022), Jon Rahm (9th in 2020), Justin Thomas (15th in 2019), Keegan Bradley (52nd in 2018), Marc Leishman (7th in 2017), Billy Horschel (20th in 2014), Zach Johnson (27th in 2013), Justin Rose (34th in 2011) and Dustin Johnson (16th in 2010) all arrived at the BMW with decent enough immediate form, however it didn’t directly translate to a top 5 FEC position.
The other 5 BMW champions since the Playoff structure was put in place back in 2009 have all been elite, in hot form and high in the FEC standings. Tiger Woods in 2009 won his fifth title of the season at 2/1, when ranked 2nd in the FEC standings. Jason Day and Rory McIlroy were both Number 1 in the FEC standings and had won previous Playoff tournaments at The Barclays and Deutsche Bank prior to winning the BMW at 15/2 and 7/1 respectively. 2016 saw Dustin Johnson, who had previously won the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational, go on to win the BMW at 10/1 when ranked 3rd in the FEC standings. 2021 saw 25/1 chance Patrick Cantlay, who in the season had won the ZOZO plus The Memorial Tournament, enter the BMW ranked 4th in the FEC standings, arriving off an 11th at the Northern Trust.
Keegan Bradley broke a very strong trend 6 years ago, entering the BMW Championship with moderate direct from of 49th at the Deutsche Bank and 34th at the Northern Trust. Every other BMW winner in the Playoff era has had a top 13 finish within their past 2 Tour outings and this really highlights this comment made by Nick Watney prior to the BMW in 2013, “Out of 70 guys, there’s kind of…there’s a big gap between guys playing really well, like you said, and guys struggling.”
The new FedEx Cup Playoffs structure now comes into its own. We have cut 20 players from the original 70 qualifiers, so the top 50 move onto the second of 3 Playoff events. Many will be motivated to ensure that they qualify for the Tour Championship next week which opens the door to invitations to the 2025 Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship. We had 3 players move into the top 50 last week, with 2 players, namely Viktor Hovland and Denny McCarthy breaking into the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings. Tommy Fleetwood (31st), Chris Kirk (32nd), Corey Conners (33rd) Matt Fitzpatrick (36th) Will Zalatoris (37th) Cameron Young (39th) Adam Scott (41st) Max Homa (43rd) and Si Woo Kim (44th) all have work to do this week if they want a slice of the Tour Championship action next week.
For those higher up the rankings, things start to get serious this week. The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even. Previously at the Tour Championship, any player ranked 1-5 had the same chance of taking the overall FedEx Cup title by winning the title.
