The performance of Tommy Fleetwood got the golfing world buzzing at Shinnecock Hills on Sunday and the pride of Southport tees it up here just a few days after that effort as he looks to grab something of a consolation prize for what was ultimately a runner-up finish behind the unflappable Brooks Koepka. Tommy is quite rightly the bookies favourite at a best-priced 8/1 – and as short as 5/1 in places – and with a 6th place finish in this event (in Munich) 12 months ago immediately after finishing 4th at Erin Hills, there’s plenty of reason to think that he’ll be in the mix here this week despite course form of MC/33/MC. With a short single-figure price on offer though it’s a win-only bet in my view and for me it would need a fast start for the 27 year-old to retain his focus and interest this week which is by no means assured. Should he start slowly – and with a fairly stiff breeze forecast for the first couple of days there’s no guarantee he’ll fly out of the blocks – then I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see him drift away and miss the weekend. Of course he could pick up where he left off on Sunday and ultimately lap this field, however I won’t be backing that eventuality at the price on offer and if he does win then good luck to him.

With Sergio Garcia ranking as second favourite – despite missing the cut at 4 of his last 5 events – that leaves a rather skinny 16/1 about 3rd favourite Andy Sullivan as the most viable punting option at the top of the market, however I’ll be looking down the field a little for my first selection this week.

Despite running the risk of following Lucas Bjerregaard over the proverbial cliff, I’m sticking with the big Dane having backed him in Italy on his last start where a tailed-off 71st halted a run of three consecutive top-6 finishes. Although this Jack Nicklaus design is by no means the tightest of challenges from off the tee, recent winners and contenders here have generally proven that a good drive can set up chances for players to get their second shot close around these parts and with well over 20 birdies typically required to compile a winning score, the more greens hit the better in my view. Lucas is a player who’s been on fire with his long game of late, hitting over 80% of GIR on his way to 6th in China, 77.8% when finishing 5th in Sicily and he led the field on that same count at Wentworth with 79.2% of greens hit. Even in Italy where he didn’t trouble the top of the leaderboard, he still led the field for Total Driving and Ball-Striking and that, for me, bodes well for this week’s test.

Despite his clear current form, he’s not rating as close to the top of the bookmaker’s lists as he might courtesy of two missed cuts from two attempts here in Cologne. Whilst that’s undoubtedly a negative on paper, the 26 year-old is playing far, far better golf at present than he was prior to either of those two efforts and I’m happy to overlook that fact as he overcame Wentworth form of MC/MC/MC when he finished 3rd there last month. He has some form in Germany having finished 5th at the European Open in 2015 and the fast, top-quality greens here should help him get back in track with the putter which could well be the differentiator if he can continue to find greens at such a high rate. RESULT: T5

It was tempting go with Martin Kaymer here who showed some decent form with his irons in Italy and lives only a few miles from the course, however he’s been more miss than hit of late and last week’s badly missed cut in New York may dampen any positivity from that earlier effort. Jorge Campillo was also tempting based on his earlier-season form, as was Matt Wallace who certainly knows how to win at this level, however I’m keeping it relatively simple this week and have backed a trio of slightly longer-priced players who each have a chance to place or better in my view.

First up Lorenzo Gagli who finds fairways with consummate ease and has shown enough form in patches with both his irons and putter to suggest that he’ll seriously contend sooner rather than later. The 32 year-old threatened briefly to become an established European Tour player in 2011 when 5 top-5 finishes at this level elevated him as high as 128th in the World Rankings, however it’s been largely a struggle since as he lost his card following a dip in form with his long game. 18th place at Q-School last autumn looks to have been a turning point though as after a shaky start he’s finally appeared to have found his feet courtesy of a compliant driver first and foremost. His status doesn’t get him a start in all European Tour events by any stretch and a couple of forays back to the Challenge Tour have reaped a win in Kenya and a runner-up finish in Turkey and he’s seemingly brought that form back to the upper tier with a form line of 20/20/14/23 over his past 4 starts. Those efforts have included Driving Accuracy ranks of 1st, 2nd and 3rd, a GIR rank of 4th and Putting Average ranks including 3rd and 10th and although it’s easier to say than do, if he can put all of that together one week then he’s likely to go very close indeed. Like Bjerregaard, I’m willing to overlook his course history here – a solitary missed cut – as he’s clearly playing far better golf at this point in time and a top-7 finish isn’t out of the realms of possibility. RESULT: T63

Of the highest-rated youngsters now plying their trade on the European Tour, Sam Horsfield is a name that is mentioned more than most and with good reason. The 21 year-old demolished the field at European Tour Q-School in November to win the event by a clear 8 shots and earn himself a stab at life as a European Tour professional and thus far the signs are good. Despite seeing most of the courses he’s played to date for the first time, he’s managed some impressive finishes including 4th at the World Super 6 in Perth (5th after the Strokeplay element), 2nd at the Tshwane Open behind local George Coetzee, 14th in a classy field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour and more recently 15th at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth where he was 3rd going into the final round. His length off the tee should give him ample chance to take advantage of the par-5s here in Cologne and whilst we’re still building a picture of what his game’s really like, it’s clear that when on form he can find enough fairways and greens to contend around this kind of track. 3rd for putting at Wentworth on the improved greens there is a positive tick in the box for this week also and I’m happy to take a chance at the price on offer that he can hit the ground running on this track.  RESULT: T59

inally I’m picking the metronomic Aaron Rai whose outstanding tee-to-green game could well see him sneak a place here at a long price. 7th for Driving Accuracy and 26th for strokes gained from off the tee for the season-to-date suggest that he’ll avoid the worst of any trouble with the driver and 20th for GIR for the season is also positive for this week’s test. The 23 year-old won three times on the Challenge Tour last year in fairly quick succession which gave him instant access to the European Tour and a couple of top-10 finishes in Denmark and at Valderrama set him up nicely for his first full season. Whilst his headline form doesn’t look that sparkling, 4 top-20 finishes in his last 9 starts is fairly positive and within that we see that he led the field in Qatar after the first day, was 3rd at the Spanish Open after 18 holes and was 7th going into the final day after a Saturday 66, he closed off a top-20 finish in China with an excellent round of 66 which was bettered by only 3 players and despite finishing outside the top-50 in Italy on his last start, he still produced a couple of rounds of 67 and topped the field for both Driving Accuracy and Greens In Regulation. A slightly better than average putting week on these slick greens – which lend themselves to the less adept putters on Tour – may well see the Wolverhampton lad in a position to reward each-way backers on Sunday. RESULT: T5