After the trials and tribulations of LA Country Club last week where Wyndham Clark impressively won his first Major, we move on to a more familiar challenge this week as the BMW International Open returns to the Golfclub München Eichenried in Germany once again.
This event does hop between here and another track in Cologne, so please be careful when reviewing the history stats as 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 events were held on the other course in the rotation.
As always, we have the post-Major dilemma to consider – will those players who travelled to Los Angeles be able to raise their game to compete here so soon afterwards? 10 players have made the journey straight to Munich to compete here, however only one of those troubled the scorers over the weekend with Romain Langasque the man in question.
Missed cuts from Adrian Meronk, Alejandro Del Rey, David Horsey, Deon Germishuys, Matthieu Pavon, Pablo Larrazabal, Thriston Lawrence, Victor Perez, and Wilco Nienaber completes the picture.
Adapting to the course here in Munich will be the main challenge – we shall see of course, however Ernie Els proved that jet lag and fatigue can indeed be overcome as he won the 2013 renewal here in Munich after finishing 4th at Merion, plus Henrik Stenson finished runner-up in 2015 after returning from a top-30 finish at Chambers Bay, before winning in Cologne in 2016 after withdrawing on the Friday at Oakmont when staring a missed cut in the face.
More recently, Matt Fitzpatrick lost out in a play-off to Andrea Pavan in 2019, having finished in a tie for 12th at Pebble Beach, and 2021 winner Viktor Hovland did play at Torrey Pines the week before, however he was forced to withdraw after getting sand in his eye during the first round. That didn’t stop him from completing a 2-stroke victory over Martin Kaymer here the following week.
Unpicking all that is this week’s task, however with the DP World Tour competing against a designated event over in the US and the field strength suffering as a result, perhaps last week is less of a consideration this year. Adrian Meronk has been installed as the 14/1 favourite with a familiar cast including Rasmus Hojgaard, Victor Perez, Antoine Rozner, Robert MacIntyre and Yannik Paul who all rate as 25/1 shots or shorter.
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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 16:25BST 19.6.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
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Course Overview. At 7,284 yards for its par of 72, the length of this course is no problem for the modern professional, with 4 mid-range par-5s and couple of potentially driveable par-4s offering scoring opportunities. With generous fairways, the course is set up for attacking golf.
Historically the greens here had been tired, slow Bentgrass mixed with Poa Annua, however the putting surfaces were overhauled before the 2019 renewal and re-laid with Creeping Bentgrass; they’ve bedded in nicely now and offer excellent chances to those who can dial in their irons.
History has proven that many types of players with different styles have succeeded here – it could be either a high GIR player who putts well, or someone in good putting form who finds more greens than normal who prevails. Either way, birdies and low scoring are the order of the day, particularly if rain does soften up the putting surfaces before or during the event.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW International Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
As per the notes above, this week’s venue played host to the event from 2002-11 in this week’s data, plus 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022:
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Hot weather in Germany is forecast to break down on Thursday evening with the risk of overnight rain. A fresher, breezier day on Friday with temperatures in the low-60s Fahrenheit and winds of 15-20mph will give way to warmer, calmer weather over the weekend with temperatures recovering to the mid-70s.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Analysing the final stats of the last 9 winners here on this track gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:
2022, Haotong Li (-22). 295.1 yards, 55.4% fairways (42nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 55.6% scrambling (49th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021, Viktor Hovland (-19). 309.9 yards, 60.7% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
2019, Andrea Pavan (-15). 300.1 yards, 51.8% fairways (44th), 79.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 80.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.75 putts per GIR (38th).
2015, Pablo Larrazabal (-17). 281.8 yards, 66.1% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (33rd), 78.3% scrambling (5th), 1.73 putts per GIR (27th).
2013, Ernie Els (-18). 295.9 yards, 55.4% fairways (50th), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.78 putts per GIR (51st).
2011, Pablo Larrazabal (-16). 280.3 yards, 76.8% fairways (2nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (2nd), 63.6% scrambling (25th), 1.75 putts per GIR (36th).
2010, David Horsey (-18). 268.8 yards, 76.8% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
2009, Nick Dougherty (-22). 283.3 yards, 66.1% fairways (53rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (32nd), 64.7% scrambling (27th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd).
2008, Martin Kaymer (-15). 293.1 yards, 60.7% fairways (45th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 80% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (56th).
No stats were captured by the European Tour for 2017 winner Andres Romero.
Despite the course seemingly setting up nicely for the longer hitters with 4 gettable par-5s and a couple of very short par-4s, length off the tee hasn’t been the overriding factor in the winners listed here.
Minimising bogeys on a low-scoring track is just as important as making the requisite red numbers – momentum-stoppers simply don’t lend themselves to success around here.
Haotong Li was maybe the exception to the rule last year with 4 eagles and 24 birdies allowing him to get away with making a total 9 bogeys, however prior to that Viktor Hovland was a case in point the year before, making just 7 bogeys balanced by an eagle and 24 birdies on his way to victory.
Andrea Pavan made just 4 bogeys in 2019, Romero and Larrazabal made 7 bogeys apiece over 72 holes in their wins here in 2017 and 2015 respectively, Ernie Els made just 4 bogeys and a double over the 4 days back in 2013, Pablo Larrazabal made 6 bogeys, Horsey 5, Dougherty 7 and Kaymer 3 bogeys and a double on their respective paths to victory.
The theme continues as you look further back in time also and keeping mistakes to a minimum will be critical in compiling a competitive score this week.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, all 3 winners had solid SG Approach numbers and each were within the top 15 for SG Tee to Green and top 12 for SG Putting:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Taking results at this venue in isolation, current form tends to be more of a factor here than some weeks which makes a level of sense given that there’s no room for seriously errant irons or a stone cold putter if you’re going to contend.
The exception to this rule is undoubtedly Andres Romero who hadn’t made a cut all year until the point that he won here in 2017, and at 300/1 it would have been an inspired choice to have plucked him out of the field as the eventual winner pre-event.
Prior to Romero’s success, Larrazabal in 2015 had gone off the boil a little although he’d finished 3rd in Morocco earlier in the year. Els came straight here from Merion where he’d finished 4th the week before, plus he’d finished 6th at Wentworth and 2nd in Indonesia in recent times so was in decent nick.
Larrazabal (2011) had finished 11th at the Italian Open a fortnight before, plus had recent contending performances including 4th in Wales and 3rd in Spain. Horsey had finished 2nd in the Italian Open a month before, Dougherty was 4th in the Irish Open the previous month and Kaymer had produced a couple of top 10s in his previous 5 events, plus had won earlier in the season in the Middle East.
In 2019, eventual winner Andrea Pavan arrived after 3 weeks off having missed his last cut at the Belgian Knockout. Prior to that his form had been solid if unspectacular with 4 finishes inside the top-27 on his previous 5 starts.
2021 favourite Viktor Hovland had withdrawn from the US Open after getting sand in his eye in an opening round of 74; prior to that, a pair of 3rd place finishes at the PGA Tour’s Valspar Championship and Wells Fargo Championship suggested he was in decent form overall:
Last year’s winner Haotong Li had shown some improved form in the 6 months or so prior to his win, finishing 2nd at the China Open, 3rd in Ras al Khaimah and 6th at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain before recording a top 20 on his last start on German soil:
2021, Viktor Hovland: 6/5/2/49/MC/42/21/3/3/30/47/WD
2019, Andrea Pavan: MC/MC/34/31/MC/60/27/21/MC/15/25/MC
2017, Andres Romero: 67/MC/MC/MC/58/18/24/27/MC/MC/MC/MC
2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 33/20/20/3/22/MC/49/MC/MC/43
2013, Ernie Els: MC/14/13/MC/15/2/MC/6/37/4
2011, Pablo Larrazabal: MC/18/44/30/10/3/49/MC/4/11
2010, David Horsey: 11/60/29/MC/42/46/2/MC/MC/MC
2009: Nick Dougherty: 14/MC/47/MC/48/31/4/13/MC/37
2008: Martin Kaymer: 33/MC/57/39/MC/7/10/16/21/53
Course Form (back to 2008): A real mix of course experience from our winners here in Munich, ranging from multiple winner Pablo Larrazabal who’d also finished 3rd before his first win, to Viktor Hovland and Haotong Li who won the last two renewals on debut:
2022, Haotong Li: Debut
2021, Viktor Hovland: Debut
2019, Andrea Pavan: MC
2017, Andres Romero: 28/22
2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3/1/MC
2013, Ernie Els: 26/5/17/7/MC
2011, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3
2010, David Horsey: Debut
2009: Nick Dougherty: 46/24/MC/50/30/MC/26
2008: Martin Kaymer: 58/MC/MC
My team for the week is as follows:
Pablo Larrazabal 2pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Wind the clock back 12 months and we found Pablo Larrazabal teeing it up here at an almost identical price and place in the market, yet with a very different few weeks leading up to an event that he’s already won twice.
As one of the early crop of players who ventured to LIV, finishing 14th at Centurion in what proved to be his one and only start, the amiable Spaniard will have undoubtedly wondered what his reception would have been from his peers on the DP World Tour. As it transpired, any animosity didn’t overly affect his game and a creditable 5th place finish was the result.
2 wins in 2022 prior to that effort matches what Pablo has achieved this year so far, however with his playing status less fluid, an OWGR position teetering on the edge of the top 50, and a Ryder Cup debut at the age of 40 not out of the realms of possibility, there’s plenty of reasons to take those at the top of the market on with the Barcelona native this week.
Wins at the Korea Championship at the end of April and the KLM Open a month later still haven’t resulted in the 9-time Tour winner getting the respect he deserves from the bookies, with last week’s missed cut at LACC hardly a signal that his form has dropped off a cliff.
Those two wins came off the back of a missed cut in Japan and a tailed-off 65th at the US PGA Championship, so there’s very recent evidence that he can bounce back immediately from an off week. Then there’s the matter of München Eichenried itself, a course which Pablo describes as his favourite course in the world. Both of his wins in this event have come in years when this track was the host course, and making it a hat-trick of successes here – and into double figures in terms of DP World Tour titles – is quite possible in my view. RESULT: T52
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Takumi Kanaya 2pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Another player seeking his third title of 2023 this week is Takumi Kanaya, and he deserves support at a similar position in the betting to Larrazabal.
All 5 of the Japanese star’s victories to date have come either on the Asian Tour or his home Japan Tour, with his February win in Oman coming on the former and his success at the Japan Tour Championship coming on the latter just over a fortnight ago, and he almost added a third title a week later when losing out in a play-off at the Aso Iizuka Challenged Golf Tournament.
Of course you could argue that those are lower-level events, although lower by how much is debatable, and with top 10s at the PGA Tour’s Zozo Championship and the DP World Tour’s Rolex-level Dubai Desert Classic to his name, there’s little reason to suggest that he can’t and won’t step up at this level at some point.
Advancing through the group stages at last year’s WGC Dell Match Play is something that few in this field can get close to and the 25 year-old’s accurate long game combined with a putter that’s been hot for the last few weeks makes him a danger wherever he tees it up right now.
17th here on debut in 2021 is a good indication that he can play the course, with last year’s missed cut coming in a stretch where he failed the make the weekend in 8 out of 10 attempts at all levels. RESULT: MC
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A third player who’s in recent winning form but who’s available at a backable each-way price is Marcel Siem.
The 42 year-old German’s Indian Open victory was frustrating for us as he rode his luck at times to pip our man Yannik Paul, who had opened up a 5-stroke lead at the halfway point before being reeled in. That was Siem’s first win for more than 8 years and there’s every sign that he could build on that further in 2023.
26th since at the Italian Open doesn’t tell the whole story as Siem was 4th heading into Sunday before faltering, and he opened with a round of 65 at the following week’s Soudal Open to sit 2nd after the first day before fading.
Home soil almost brought the best out of the 5-time DP World Tour winner on his last start, eventually finishing 2nd to Tom McKibbin having had a live chance to win heading into the final 9 holes, and another contending performance in his homeland is quite possible this week as he looks to keep the momentum going.
With 17 starts here at München Eichenried over the years, Marcel knows this piece of land as well as anybody and with finishes here including 14th (2011), 13th (2006), 10th (2013) and 8th (2003) to his name, he could well record a personal best on this course this week. RESULT: T73
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Aaron Cockerill 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Having returned home for the PGA Tour’s Canadian Open where he missed the cut, Aaron Cockerill may well find motivation from compatriot Nick Taylor’s success at Oakdale the week before last.
There’s plenty to suggest that the 31 year-old might break through at this lower level sooner rather than later, particularly from the strides that he’s made in his game in the past year or so. 2nd at last year’s Kenya Open and 3rd a few weeks later at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain signalled intent, although he had to wait until the Tour visited Leopard Creek in December before recording another lofty finish, this time 4th behind Ockie Strydom.
5 top-21 finishes in successive starts before Aaron headed home contained his closest finish yet, eventually losing out in a play-off to Lucas Herbert at the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan. Disappointment aside, Aaron can take that experience forward as he looks to go one better.
23rd for the season for GIR is positive for this, as is 13th for Bogey Avoidance, however 4th for SG Putting and 5th for Putts Per GIR are numbers which really encourage for this week’s test, and although he’s missed the cut twice from two attempts here, he’s playing far better and more consistent golf arriving here this week than those previous attempts. RESULT: MC
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
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Daniel Gavins 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Finally, I’ll take a chance on England’s Daniel Gavins who’s available at a healthy 3-figure price despite having won already this term and having flashed some form on his last start at the Scandinavian Mixed.
Having tucked away his first DP World Tour title at the ISPS Handa World Championship in August 2021, the 32 year-old doubled his tally in Ras al Khaimah in February, eventually winning on the 72nd hole courtesy of a 25-fott putt for double bogey, having found the water twice on his way to the green.
Despite the unnecessary drama, the fact that he still managed to get over the line counts for something and if nothing else he can draw on the experience if he finds himself in a similar situation in the future at any point.
22nd in Thailand, 14th in Korea and 12th last time out in Sweden all point to a player whose form is still bubbling just under the surface, and that last effort came after an opening round of 74 left him starting at a weekend off before he recovered well.
42nd here in 2021 on his last attempt, that result came despite losing strokes from both Off the Tee and from Tee to Green; although not bullet-proof recently, he’s been producing generally far better numbers on both counts of late and if he can couple that with one of his spiky putting weeks, which he’s more than capable of doing, then he could contend at a big price. RESULT: T67
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:05BST 19.6.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
