Oliver Wilson was the latest DP World Tour player to end a long winless spell last week, holing a pair of absolute bombs on the back 9 at Himmerland to pip Ewen Ferguson by a stroke. 200/1 was the prize if you had the foresight to back the Englishman, very well done if you did just that.
On to this week we go to the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth which is one of the highlights of the golfing calendar for me, and our annual return to the famous Surrey parkland course sees a strong field assemble as Ryder Cup qualification begins ahead of next year’s trip to Italy.
With the PGA Tour not restarting until next week and a few players making a distinct point of supporting the DP World Tour right now, we have an excellent field of 144 players here this week. Rory McIlroy heads the betting at 6/1 at the time of writing, from Jon Rahm (8/1) and 12/1 shot Matt Fitzpatrick. Notables such as Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, defending champion Billy Horschel and Tyrrell Hatton are also in attendance in the last Rolex Series event before the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in November.
Get up to 12 places each way on the BMW PGA Championship with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf.
bet365 have recently launched their innovative ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf, following on from its success on horse racing over the past few years.
bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
The number of Each Way Extra places offered on an event can be viewed on the Each Way Extra coupon or on the bet slip as per the example below:
Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 15:00BST 5.9.22, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
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West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, England. Designer: Harry Colt, 1926 with Els re-design 2009/2016; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,267 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass, Fescue, Poa Annua; Rough: Rye, Fescue; Greens: Creeping Bentgrass.
Course Overview. A week after Chris Wood’s victory here in 2016, Wentworth began its second major transformation under the guidance of Ernie Els. This time, with the help of European Golf Design, the brief was to return the course back closer to the original vision conceived by Harry Colt but with consideration for how golf has developed in modern times. Whereas the changes implemented by Els and his team back in 2009, with a few subsequent revisions, toughened the track up with a series of relatively severe features, these latest changes softened the course to a degree, particularly on and around the greens.
The layout and routing wasn’t altered during the 2016 renovations, however in total 29 bunkers were removed from the track completely and all remaining bunkers were reconstructed and generally softened to make the course more playable. A sub-air system, as per Augusta National, was installed on all 18 greens and the putting surfaces were stripped and re-laid with creeping bentgrass to replace the tired and inconsistent Bent/Poa mix.
The 3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th and 15th greens were rebuilt to a degree whereas the 8th, 11th, 14th and 16th were completely overhauled in a bid to make the surfaces more amenable. The entrances to a number of greens were opened too as part of the changes to encourage more shot-making options and to make them more accessible from the ground, in turn allowing balls to roll onto the greens as per Colt’s original concept here.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2021: Billy Horschel, 28/1; 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, 16/1; 2019: Danny Willett, 66/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 22/1; 2017: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2016: Chris Wood, 66/1; 2015: Byeong-Hun An, 100/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 14/1; 2013: Matteo Manassero, 66/1; 2012: Luke Donald, 8/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 15/2; 2010: Simon Khan, 200/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Dry conditions have dominated in southern parts of England for many weeks now, however that’s all starting to change as the start of this year’s BMW PGA Championship approaches. Overnight rain on Sunday provided the parched ground with some welcome relief and more of the same is possible all the way up to and including Thursday, with thunderstorms not of the question either. From Friday onwards it should start to settle down again with sunny spells and temperatures reaching 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. Winds will be light at 5-10mph for the most part.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 12 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2020, Billy Horschel (-19). 64.3% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 78.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (29th).
2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-19). 71.4% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (14th).
2019, Danny Willett (-20). 64.3% fairways (16th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.6% scrambling (8th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2018, Francesco Molinari (-17). 76.8% fairways (4th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 89.5% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
2017, Alex Noren (-11). 60.7% fairways (32nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (26th), 70.4% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).
2016, Chris Wood (-9). 69.6% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
2015, Byeong-Hun An (-21). 62.5% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 81.8% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
2014, Rory McIlroy (-14). 67.9% fairways (30th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 60.9% scrambling (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2013, Matteo Manassero (-10). 60.7% fairways (47th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 63.2% scrambling (14th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
2012, Luke Donald (-15). 58.9% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
2011, Luke Donald (-6). 67.9% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (25th), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
2010, Simon Khan (-6). 87.5% fairways (1st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 53.8% scrambling (34th), 1.81 putts per GIR (54th).
Hit two thirds of fairways, three quarters of greens and scramble and putt in the top 30 or so and you’ll be there or thereabouts is pretty much how recent winners since the original Els re-design have got the job done. Even when weather conditions have led to higher or lower scores, it’s still tended to be players who’ve done sufficiently well in all aspects of their game who’ve prevailed here.
Traditionally this has been a strong all-round test and contenders can’t be lacking in any particular area of their game this week if they want to succeed. 3 of the top-4 finishers last year all ranked 6th or better when it came to GIR on the week, and eventual winner Billy Horschel continued the trend we’d seen the previous few years where scrambling was a critical factor, as the American ranked 3rd for getting up and down at 78.6% over the 4 days.
Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the past two years with eventual winners Tyrrell Hatton and Billy Horschel both topping that statistic:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: The three short-priced winners (McIlroy and Donald twice) entered the event off the back of some strong form and at least 2 consecutive top 10s immediately prior to victory here. Manassero’s form was less obvious with a couple of top 20s in his previous 4 outings, whereas Simon Khan’s win came from completely off the page as a late sponsor’s invitation. 2015 winner Byeong-Hun An arrived with immediate form of 8/15 and had a further two top-10 finishes to his name for the year to date.
2016 winner Chris Wood had finished 54th in Ireland the week before winning here which was his first event for over a month – 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic had been the Bristolian’s best effort of the year to date. 2017 winner Alex Noren had won 4 times the previous season and although he’d not taken any further silverware in 2017 up to the point of his victory here, he had made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play before finishing a creditable 10th at TPC Sawgrass in elite company on his last start.
Francesco Molinari’s form for the season to date in 2018 wasn’t anything special, hence the 22/1 price point despite his strong course form. 2 top-20s in his previous 5 starts hinted at some developing form though and the rest is history as he won the Quicken Loans National and then the Open Championship over his next few starts after proving victorious here.
2019 winner Danny Willett frustrated many punters having been a well-backed fancy on his previous start at Crans-sur-Sierre where he missed the cut. Prior to that though, he’d finished 6th at the Open Championship and produced 2 strong rounds in decent company at The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs so, Crans aside, the signs were there.
2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton made it a hat-trick of victors here coming off the back of a missed cut, having finished 6 shots adrift of the line at the US Open on his previous start. 5th in terms of 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship prior to that was strong form though in elite PGA Tour company, having already converted State-side earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Last year’s winner Billy Horschel had won the WGC Match Play earlier that year but his finishes since that point had been fairly average, albeit at PGA Tour level, until finishing 7th in 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship on his previous start:
2021, Billy Horschel: 50/25/23/40/67/MC/54/53/17/31/52/7
Course Form: Given his recent form, the 100/1 about Benny An in 2015 was best explained by the fact that it was his Wentworth debut and, at the time, he was still a Tour maiden.
Until then, and including Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren from the past 5 renewals, recent winners here had produced a top-10 or better over the West Course in either its previous or current guise, suggesting that positive experience of this part of Surrey in some shape or form is pretty critical.
Wentworth hadn’t been Rory McIlroy’s favourite stomping ground prior to victory in 2014, however he had nevertheless produced a top-5 on his second attempt in 2009; Matteo Manassero had finished 7th two years prior to victory which followed his 17th place finish on debut; Luke Donald had finished 3rd in 2008 and 2nd in 2010 prior to his back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012; even ‘surprise’ 2010 winner Simon Khan had previously finished 2nd at Wentworth 4 years previously, so his ability to play the course shouldn’t have been a total shock – which he again proved in 2013 when making the play-off.
Event form prior to winning here since 2010 is as follows:
2021, Billy Horschel: 4
2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 38/46/7/30/MC/MC
2019, Danny Willett: 5/MC/43/32/63/38/3/58/MC
2018, Francesco Molinari: 30/MC/35/17/50/7/9/7/5/55/2
2017, Alex Noren: MC/6/21/74/MC/21/32/WD/8/43
2016, Chris Wood: 6/MC/49/WD/21/4
2015, Byeong-Hun An: Debut
2014, Rory McIlroy: MC/5/48/24/MC/MC
2013, Matteo Manassero: 17/7/43
2012, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2/1
2011, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2
2010, Simon Khan: 24/MC/2/24/10/MC
This classical, tree-lined track is at its most challenging when the wind blows – even a 10-15 mph breeze can play havoc with club selection as it whistles around the treetops, however this week doesn’t look likely to cause the players too many problems and another renewal where scoring approaches 20-under is possible.
For me this is a combination of solid all-round play, bogey avoidance and some positive course experience where the eventual winner is likely to have an extra touch of class about him.
All things considered, my selections are as follows:
Attempting to pick holes in the chances of those at the top of the market is a dangerous game, however one we’re going to have to try to play this week nevertheless.
Rory McIlroy leads the betting this week, as is often the case wherever he tees it up, and the Northern Irishman makes his first start after bagging the FedEx Cup cash the week before last at East Lake. A former Wentworth winner, he also has three more top-10 finishes alongside 4 missed cuts in what’s a distinctly hit and miss record here in Surrey. With LIV players in attendance this week following his recent comments, plus the inevitable comedown from his Tour Championship win, I wonder how that will affect Rory’s game.
Jon Rahm is slightly easier to leave alone for me given he’s not really hit top form all season, winning just once against a poor Mexico Open field. Matt Fitzpatrick ticks every conceivable box this week on a rare visit back to the DP World Tour, however he talked in interview about feeling out of sync at the BMW Championship last month, finishing 48th, before a mid-division finish at East Lake.
For me, the most attractive play from a betting perspective near the top of the market is Shane Lowry who should be the hungriest of the leading quartet to get a win here. With no win still since his 2019 Open Championship success at Royal Portrush, the 35 year-old will be as keen as ever to get over the line once again and Wentworth is as likely a place as any for that to happen given that he’s finished inside the top 20 on 8 of his last 9 attempts here and has recorded 4 top-6 finishes around these parts in total.
Having agonisingly just missed out on making East Lake despite finishing 12th at the BMW Championship and playing, by his own estimation, his best golf for quite some time, Shane can hit the ground running and seriously contend on more familiar terrain this week in my view. RESULT: Winner
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Tommy Fleetwood 2pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
The only other player in the top 10 of the betting that I’m backing is Tommy Fleetwood, as he makes his first start since mid-July.
For a player of Tommy’s undoubted ability, it’s been a largely frustrating time since capturing his 5th DP World Tour title in late 2019 at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and what was his second Rolex Series success.
Covid, becoming a father, largely losing his long game for a while – unfathomable for a player of his ilk – the reasons and explanations could be explored in depth, however whatever the cause(s) that saw the 31 year-old on the verge of dropping out of the OWGR top 50 earlier this year, there’s reason to believe that he’s turned the corner.
14th at The Masters and 5th at the US PGA Championship reminded us that the Southport man is well capable of competing at the most elite of levels, and he backed up a 4th place finish at this year’s Scottish Open with an identical finish the following week at St Andrews for his second top-4 finish at The Open in the last 3 renewals.
Losing his mum shortly after that effort understandably curtailed his Stateside season as he returned home to be with family, however perhaps that sad loss will spur him on as he gets back into competition this week.
Rust is always as a consideration when a player’s been out of action for a while, however Tommy’s been busy preparing for his return to Wentworth this week and we don’t have to look far into his record to find two very clear examples of him winning straight off the bat, having twice won in Abu Dhabi as his season-opening effort.
The West Course is also a good fit for Tommy when he’s swinging it well, and prior to his break from golf both his SG Approach and SG Tee to Green games seemed to be trending nicely. 6th here in 2015 still ranks as Fleetwood’s best result, however he’s been prominent on occasion since, sitting in 4th at halfway in 2018 and 4th again heading into Sunday in 2020. It would be an emotional victory should it happen, that much is certain, however I wouldn’t put it past Tommy to be shedding a tear or two come Sunday. RESULT: T57
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Eddie Pepperell 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Having backed Eddie Pepperell on three of his last four starts, the question I ask myself is whether I should – actually it’s more ‘dare’ – leave the Englishman out this week when he’s undoubtedly playing good golf.
I’ve been postulating in recent weeks that the 31 year-old might use the whole LIV situation, and his twitter musings on the subject, to his advantage on the course sooner rather than later by ultimately letting his golf do the talking. A narrow defeat at Fairmont St Andrews aside, Eddie’s not quite got close enough to have a real chance of making that assertion become reality, however perhaps this week – on a bigger stage and with an influx of LIV players in attendance – the competitive juices will be flowing to the maximum.
Certainly there’s little wrong with his game to suggest that he can’t contend this week. 5 consecutive top-20 finishes since finding some form at the Cazoo Classic in late July have come on a variety of courses, and in isolation every part of his game has fired in recent weeks.
In old money, 10th, 6th and 1st for Driving Accuracy from three of those efforts tells us that the driver is behaving; 7th for GIR on his last two outings suggests the irons are dialled in; 7th for Scrambling last week and 2nd on the same count at the Hero Open is positive for his short game; and he ranked 4th for putting on that aforementioned effort at Fairmont too.
Progressive SG Off the Tee rankings over the past two outings adds further encouragement and 7th for SG Putting last week in Denmark seals the deal for me for a further investment, particularly when you consider that Pepperell finished 6th here on debut in 2013 and again in 2019 also. RESULT: T32
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Francesco Laporta 0.5pt EW 190/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
In terms of longer priced chances, perhaps there’s a little bit of logic we can apply when trying to dig out a nugget or two at a 3-figure price.
Last year we had 3 players – Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Jamie Donaldson and Laurie Canter – tied for 2nd place behind eventual winner Billy Horschel, with the trio each priced between 100/1 to 150/1. Canter was the toughest to find on course debut and arriving off of 3 missed cuts, however the other two weren’t impossible to pluck out. Both had a previous top-10 finish here at Wentworth and in the case of Donaldson, he’d finished 3rd a month before at the Cazoo Classic. Kiradech’s form was all Stateside, first PGA Tour then Korn Ferry, however again there were enough sparks to have taken a chance, in particular at the Boise Open 3 weeks prior where he was 2nd heading into Sunday.
The longest priced player in 2020 to get a full each-way payout was Eddie Pepperell at 80/1, and again he had a little previous here in Surrey, finishing 6th on debut in 2013 and again he’d shown a spark recently by finishing 9th at the Scottish Open the week before.
Let’s get the blindingly obvious out of the way first then and back Francesco Laporta on his very clear and obvious merits.
16th at the Omega European Masters saw the Italian improve from a shaky 1-over par 71 to start to close with rounds of 66/68/64, before he essentially reversed that performance last week, opening with a pair of 64s to co-lead into Sunday, before treading water with a closing round of 71 for a tie for 4th place.
Couple that very recent form with a tie for 6th place last year on his Wentworth debut and we have a potentially potent combination. Rounds of 68, 65 and 69 gave the 31 year-old a slender lead heading into the final day 12 months ago as he looked to secure his maiden title on the top Tour, having twice won on the Challenge Tour back in 2019.
14th for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green last week in Denmark is a good pointer that the long game is working right now for Laporta and 5th for SG Putting on last week’s Bentgrass greens also bodes well ahead of this week’s task. RESULT: MC
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Joost Luiten 0.5pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Another 3-figure chance who catches the eye is Joost Luiten, given that at anything approaching his best the Dutchman deserves far more respect in the market.
Of course the reason that we’re getting such an enormous price about the 6-time DP World Tour winner is that he’s not been at his best for some time now, as is evidenced by his fall from a career-best 28th in the OWGR back at the end of 2014 to his current ranking of 540th.
Niggling injuries and ailments have been partially to blame, that much is true, and he recently took a couple of months off to regroup having found himself getting increasingly angry and frustrated on the course. Having got married in the meantime, the 36 year-old returned to action at the Czech Masters last month, finishing 41st when shaking off the rust, and he followed that up with a 23rd-place finish last time out at the Omega Masters, and by his own estimation he was in a far better place physically and mentally having taken the time out.
What was noticeable statistically following his return to action was that his normally dependable long game was back in full force. 3rd for Driving Accuracy and 12th for GIR in Prague was followed by 12th and 3rd on the same metrics the following week in the Swiss Alps; with the cornerstone of his game seemingly in good shape, as ever it will only take a good week on and around the greens for him to feature. 12th for SG Putting then on that last outing was an interesting number to see given all that we know about Joost and a return to Wentworth, where he’s finished inside the top dozen twice in the past and suits him nicely, could see further improvement. RESULT: T23
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Darren Fichardt 0.5pt EW 500/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet
The other player who fits the bill at a longer price still is Darren Fichardt, who with more than 5 years since his last DP World Tour win may take some inspiration from the long winless runs of Oliver Wilson and Richie Ramsay that have been broken in recent times.
The South African has 5 titles to his name at this level, won between 2001 and 2017, however at the age of 47 doesn’t appear quite ready to hang up his golf shoes just yet having won twice on the Sunshine Tour since the start of 2020 and shown some good signs of form of late. 10th after day one at the Cazoo Open a month ago was as good as it got at Celtic Manor, however he returned home to finish 4th at the Ubunye Championship the week after, shooting rounds of 62 and 63 into the bargain. A 65 to open at Crans wasn’t improved upon again that week, eventually finishing 44th, and the highlight of last week’s 35th place finish in Denmark was a 2nd round 64. Some definite sparks in there without enough of a signal to the bookies for his price to be slashed.
7th for Driving Accuracy in the Alps and 1st last week is no bad starting point coming to Wentworth and 2nd for Putting Average on last week’s Bentgrass greens is positive ahead of a similar task this week in that respect. What we need from Fichardt though, if he’s going to contend, is for an improvement in his approach game which has been negative from a Strokes Gained perspective since the start of August. A field-leading performance on that metric at the Qatar Masters back in March, after a string of negative weeks, tells us that he can find the solution every now and then though, and he returns to Wentworth this week where he’s twice finished inside the top 8, including most recently on his penultimate start in 2018. RESULT: MC
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