West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, England. Designer: Harry Colt, 1926 with Els re-design 2009/2016; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,267 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass, Fescue, Poa Annua; Rough: Rye, Fescue; Greens: Creeping Bentgrass.
Course Overview. A week after Chris Wood’s victory here in 2016, Wentworth began its second major transformation under the guidance of Ernie Els. This time, with the help of European Golf Design, the brief was to return the course back closer to the original vision conceived by Harry Colt but with consideration for how golf has developed in modern times. Whereas the changes implemented by Els and his team back in 2009, with a few subsequent revisions, toughened the track up with a series of relatively severe features, these latest changes softened the course to a degree, particularly on and around the greens.
The layout and routing wasn’t altered during the 2016 renovations, however in total 29 bunkers were removed from the track completely and all remaining bunkers were reconstructed and generally softened to make the course more playable. A sub-air system, as per Augusta National, was installed on all 18 greens and the putting surfaces were stripped and re-laid with creeping bentgrass to replace the tired and inconsistent Bent/Poa mix.
The 3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th and 15th greens were rebuilt to a degree whereas the 8th, 11th, 14th and 16th were completely overhauled in a bid to make the surfaces more amenable. The entrances to a number of greens were opened too as part of the changes to encourage more shot-making options and to make them more accessible from the ground, in turn allowing balls to roll onto the greens as per Colt’s original concept here.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW PGA Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Winners & Prices. 2023: Ryan Fox, 50/1; 2022: Shane Lowry, 18/1; 2021: Billy Horschel, 28/1; 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, 16/1; 2019: Danny Willett, 66/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 22/1; 2017: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2016: Chris Wood, 66/1; 2015: Byeong-Hun An, 100/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 14/1; 2013: Matteo Manassero, 66/1; 2012: Luke Donald, 8/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 15/2; 2010: Simon Khan, 200/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
The cool, changeable conditions of last week in Northern Ireland are a thing of the past and Wentworth will enjoy some late summer sunshine this week with temperatures edging into the low 70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. A moderate easterly wind of between 10-15mph will keep the players honest though and there’s the risk of the odd shower over the weekend.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 14 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2023, Ryan Fox (-18). 53.6% fairways (55th), 65.3% greens in regulation (38th), 76% scrambling (5th), 1.52 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2022, Shane Lowry (-17, 54 holes). 61.9% fairways (29th), 90.7% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.76 putts per GIR (55th).
- 2021, Billy Horschel (-19). 64.3% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 78.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (29th).
- 2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-19). 71.4% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (14th).
- 2019, Danny Willett (-20). 64.3% fairways (16th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.6% scrambling (8th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2018, Francesco Molinari (-17). 76.8% fairways (4th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 89.5% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
- 2017, Alex Noren (-11). 60.7% fairways (32nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (26th), 70.4% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).
- 2016, Chris Wood (-9). 69.6% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
- 2015, Byeong-Hun An (-21). 62.5% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 81.8% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
- 2014, Rory McIlroy (-14). 67.9% fairways (30th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 60.9% scrambling (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
- 2013, Matteo Manassero (-10). 60.7% fairways (47th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 63.2% scrambling (14th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
- 2012, Luke Donald (-15). 58.9% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2011, Luke Donald (-6). 67.9% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (25th), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
- 2010, Simon Khan (-6). 87.5% fairways (1st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 53.8% scrambling (34th), 1.81 putts per GIR (54th).
Traditionally this has been a strong all-round test and contenders can’t be lacking in any particular area of their game this week if they want to succeed. Last year’s winner Ryan Fox hit fewer greens in relation than most on his way to victory, but he did continue the trend we’d seen the previous few years where scrambling was a critical factor, as the Kiwi ranked fifth for getting up and over the 4 days.
Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the past four years with eventual winners Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry each topping that statistic, and Ryan Fox ranking 9th last year:
- 2023: Ryan Fox. T: 26th; A: 7th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 38th; P: 6th
- 2022: Shane Lowry. T: 16th; A: 9th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 16th; P: 19th
- 2021: Billy Horschel. T: 2nd; A: 1st; T2G: 1st; ATG: 45th; P: 42nd
- 2020: Tyrrell Hatton. T: 11th; A: 20th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 2nd; P: 11th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Taking that point a step further, 8 of the top 9 finishers last year ranked inside the top 9 for SG T2G on the week, with Viktor Hovland – who finished 5th – ranking 15th on that count too.
Incoming Form: The three short-priced winners (McIlroy and Donald twice) entered the event off the back of some strong form and at least 2 consecutive top 10s immediately prior to victory here. Manassero’s form was less obvious with a couple of top 20s in his previous 4 outings, whereas Simon Khan’s win came from completely off the page as a late sponsor’s invitation. 2015 winner Byeong-Hun An arrived with immediate form of 8/15 and had a further two top-10 finishes to his name for the year to date.
2016 winner Chris Wood had finished 54th in Ireland the week before winning here which was his first event for over a month – 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic had been the Bristolian’s best effort of the year to date. 2017 winner Alex Noren had won 4 times the previous season and although he’d not taken any further silverware in 2017 up to the point of his victory here, he had made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play before finishing a creditable 10th at TPC Sawgrass in elite company on his last start.
Francesco Molinari’s form for the season to date in 2018 wasn’t anything special, hence the 22/1 price point despite his strong course form. 2 top-20s in his previous 5 starts hinted at some developing form though and the rest is history as he won the Quicken Loans National and then the Open Championship over his next few starts after proving victorious here.
2019 winner Danny Willett frustrated many punters having been a well-backed fancy on his previous start at Crans-sur-Sierre where he missed the cut. Prior to that though, he’d finished 6th at the Open Championship and produced 2 strong rounds in decent company at The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs so, Crans aside, the signs were there.
2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton made it a hat-trick of victors here coming off the back of a missed cut, having finished 6 shots adrift of the line at the US Open on his previous start. 5th in terms of 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship prior to that was strong form though in elite PGA Tour company, having already converted State-side earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2021 winner Billy Horschel had won the WGC Match Play earlier that year but his finishes since that point had been fairly average, albeit at PGA Tour level, until finishing 7th in 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship on his previous start.
2022 winner Shane Lowry best results had come earlier in the year, finishing 3rd at both The Masters and the RBC Heritage in successive weeks. 12th at the BMW Championship on his last start meant that the Irishman just missed out on the PGA Tour’s East Lake finale, however he was undoubtedly trending and had openly stated that he was playing some very good golf.
Finally, last year’s winner Ryan Fox returned after a 6-week break to finish 3rd in Ireland the week before his victory 12 months ago. The Kiwi had spent most of his season on the PGA Tour, however 12th at the Scottish Open suggested a level of comfort this side of the Atlantic which he franked here at the West Course a few weeks later:
- 2023, Ryan Fox: 17/MC/26/WD/23/21/30/43/12/52/MC/3
- 2022, Shane Lowry: 3/3/13/23/32/10/MC/9/21/83/46/12
- 2021, Billy Horschel: 50/25/23/40/67/MC/54/53/17/31/52/7
- 2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 1/46/6/1/3/4/69/MC/25/16/5/MC
- 2019, Danny Willett: MC/MC/MC/41/27/8/12/MC/6/48/24/MC
- 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/8/45/40/MC/25/26/17/20/49/16/MC
- 2017, Alex Noren: 12/1/23/13/21/MC/55/49/5/MC/31/10
- 2016, Chris Wood: MC/MC/8/MC/42/20/61/42/34/54
- 2015, Byeong-Hun An: 12/5/13/7/45/59/34/MC/8/15
- 2014, Rory McIlroy: 2/9/17/2/25/7/8/8/6
- 2013, Matteo Manassero: 9/23/22/12/33/29/23/17/MC/16/68
- 2012, Luke Donald: 48/56/33/6/1/32/37/3/6
- 2011, Luke Donald: MC/1/10/6/4/2/8/4/2
- 2010, Simon Khan: MC/65/57/56/61/MC/69/MC/27
Course Form: Given his recent form, the 100/1 about Benny An in 2015 was best explained by the fact that it was his Wentworth debut and, at the time, he was still a Tour maiden.
Until then, and including Ryan Fox, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren from the past 7 renewals, recent winners here had produced a top-20 or better over the West Course in either its previous or current guise, suggesting that positive experience of this part of Surrey in some shape or form is pretty critical.
Wentworth hadn’t been Rory McIlroy’s favourite stomping ground prior to victory in 2014, however he had nevertheless produced a top-5 on his second attempt in 2009; Matteo Manassero had finished 7th two years prior to victory which followed his 17th place finish on debut; Luke Donald had finished 3rd in 2008 and 2nd in 2010 prior to his back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012; even ‘surprise’ 2010 winner Simon Khan had previously finished 2nd at Wentworth 4 years previously, so his ability to play the course shouldn’t have been a total shock – which he again proved in 2013 when making the play-off.
Event form prior to winning here since 2010 is as follows:
- 2023, Ryan Fox: MC/43/MC/20/63/WD
- 2022, Shane Lowry: 65/4/68/12/2/6/MC/6/15/11/13/17
- 2021, Billy Horschel: 4
- 2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 38/46/7/30/MC/MC
- 2019, Danny Willett: 5/MC/43/32/63/38/3/58/MC
- 2018, Francesco Molinari: 30/MC/35/17/50/7/9/7/5/55/2
- 2017, Alex Noren: MC/6/21/74/MC/21/32/WD/8/43
- 2016, Chris Wood: 6/MC/49/WD/21/4
- 2015, Byeong-Hun An: Debut
- 2014, Rory McIlroy: MC/5/48/24/MC/MC
- 2013, Matteo Manassero: 17/7/43
- 2012, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2/1
- 2011, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2
- 2010, Simon Khan: 24/MC/2/24/10/MC
This classical, tree-lined track is at its most challenging when the wind blows – even a 10-15 mph breeze can play havoc with club selection as it whistles around the treetops and that’s exactly what the players are likely to get this week.
For me this is a combination of solid all-round play, bogey avoidance and some positive course experience where the eventual winner is likely to have an extra touch of class about him.
All things considered, my selections are as follows:
