Congratulations if you were on-board Austin Eckroat at the WWT Championship at 45/1. I landed a full each-way place on Joe Highsmith at 60/1 and a part each-way return on Wesley Bryan at 125/1 for a positive week overall.
This week we move from Mexico to the North Atlantic for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. In 2019 this was an alternate event, but the tournament now has full 500 FedExCup point status, a $6.9 million prize fund, plus a full 2-year Tour exemption. Victory this week also brings invites to the 2025 Sentry (Tournament of Champions) plus The Masters. With only this and the RSM Classic next week in terms of 2024 PGA Tour events left to play, there are plenty of motivating factors this week such as:
Official World Golf Ranking top 50 spot (invite for the 2025 Masters arriving pre-Christmas for those not already exempt).
AON Next 10 FedExCup Fall Series spot (entry into the big money AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am & Genesis Invitational tournaments early in 2025.
FedExCup Fall Series top 125 (Full Tour Card playing privileges for 2025 for those not already exempt)
FedExCup Fall Series top 126 – 150 (Conditional Your Status for 2025 for those not already exempt)
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: The tiny island of Bermuda has the biggest concentration of golf courses on the planet, with 7 courses packed into 21 square miles. The Bermuda Championship takes places at Port Royal Golf Course, a track that hosted the PGA Grand Slam of Golf from 2009-2014, organised by the PGA of America, where the 4 reigning Major champions came here to compete in October. And the PGA Tour now visits annually, with the 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship offering a full 500 FedEx Cup points plus invites to the 2024 Tournament of Champions and Masters Tournament.
Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda: Designer: Robert Trent Jones 1970, with Roger Rulewich renovation 2009; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Short; Par: 71; Length: 6,828 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 7; Acres of Fairway: 21; Fairways: Front 9 – 419 Bermudagrass, Back 9 – 419 Bermudagrass with Zoysiagrass; Rough: Bermuda with Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: 8,000 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimpmeter 11ft.
Course Scoring Average & PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 68.99 (-1.70), Rank 56 of 58 courses
2022: 69.16 (-1.84), Rank 40 of 50 courses
2021: 70.76 (-0.24), Rank 17 of 50 courses
2020: 71.15 (+0.15), Rank 19 of 51 courses
2019: 69.83 (-1.17), Rank 28 of 41 courses
Course Overview: Port Royal Golf Course is a short Par 71 set on the Atlantic coastline of Bermuda. It has a 36/35 split, with the front 9 featuring a couple of reachable par-5s. The course reminds me a little of El Camaleon in Mexico where they used to play the WWT Championship/Mayakoba event, in the respect that both are short and have contrasting elements to the course. Other players mention the Plantation Course on Maui as a correlating course, not for length, but purely for the undulations involved across the course. A tree-less Harbour Town has been quoted as well.
Here at Port Royal, the first 6 holes are played away from the coastline, protected partially against the wind, set in a low point. Most of the holes are guarded by trees earlier on and it gives the appearance of a tropical inland golf course. With a genuine par-5 (2nd hole) and what in effect is a long par-4 (517 yards) playing as a par-5 (7th hole), this is the section of the course where scoring is essential, especially as there are 3 attackable par-4s as well. From the 7th green onwards through the 10th hole, the course opens out onto the coast, with no protection from the wind. This again is the case across the closing 5 hole stretch of the 14th through the 18th.
The back 9 has a couple of stretching par-3s (13th and 16th) both measuring 235 yards, with the 17th par-5 at 501 yards being a huge eagle opportunity if you can avoid the fairway bunkers and water all the way down the left-hand side. From an overall perspective, players here mention huge elevation changes across the course and a number of isolated tee boxes. The course itself features Bermudagrass throughout and TifEagle Bermudagrass greens. When the PGA Grand Slam of Golf came here the course also featured rough which was described as penal enough to cause problems with approach shots in terms of distance control. Jim Furyk describes this course back at the 2014 Grand Slam as not being about power. Instead it’s a test, where both course and wind management are critical.
Fact is, all shapes and sizes can compete here. As ever with coastal golf, winning score will be based on whether the wind blows. If the wind blows here the track gets tougher, with Herbert’s and Gay’s winning total some 9 shots higher than both Brandon Todd’s and Camilo Villegas’ winning totals of -24/260.
Bermuda Championship Winners: 2023: Camilo Villegas (-24); 2022: Seamus Power (-19); 2021: Lucas Herbert (-15); 2020: Brian Gay (-15); 2019: Brendon Todd (-24).
2023: Camilo Villegas 67-63-65-65 -24/260 AM /PM Split
2022: Seamus Power 65-65-65-70 -19/265 PM/AM Split
2021: Lucas Herbert 70-65-65-69 -15/269 PM/AM Split
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Seamus Power, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Putnam, Sam Stevens, Patrick Rodgers, Nate Lashley, Mackenzie Hughes, Daniel Berger, Doug Ghim and Ben Griffin.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2023: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 75. Wind WSW 7-13 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind WSW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Saturday: Cloudy. High of 76. Wind W 15-20 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Sunday: Cloudy and breezy. High of 73. Wind E 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
2022: Thursday: Overcast with occasional light showers. High of 79. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Friday: Overcast with occasional light showers. High of 79. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny with occasional showers. High of 79. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind W 20-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy and scattered showers. High of 79. Wind W 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Due to high winds and a rainstorm, play was suspended at 12:38 p.m. and players were held in place before resuming at 12:43 p.m. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 6:34 p.m. with 13 players remaining. Friday: Wind WNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. High of 80. Wind S 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 79. Wind SW 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 12:07 p.m. and players were held in place before resuming at 12:18 p.m.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind SW 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 12-18 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NNW at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Wind ESE at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind E 12-22 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind SE 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 79. Wind ESE 10-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Southampton, Bermuda is here. As you would expect with an island perched in the north Atlantic, precipitation can be a feature here in Bermuda with tropical storms. There’s been plenty of precipitation in the build-up to the tournament with 160 mm across October. That looks likely (70% chance) to be topped-up by thunderstorms on tournament Tuesday with Friday afternoon and Saturday morning featuring pretty significant chances of precipitation also.
Significant wind looks likely to affect scoring as well. Thursday and Friday morning look the calmest – we may well see a PM/AM scoring wave in balance. Thursday, Saturday and Sunday feature a north-westerly wind which over the weekend will gust upwards of 25 mph. Friday afternoon sees the same strength but from the south-west. 2020 may well be worth a look with a similar wind direction for Friday & Saturday’s play.
Temperatures will be slightly down on the norm for Bermuda at 18-21 degrees Celsius, 64-70 Fahrenheit.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Procore Championship / Amgen Irish Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Mackenzie Hughes; 2) Lucas Glover; 3) Wesley Bryan; 4) Brandt Snedeker; 5) Seamus Power / Sam Stevens; 7) Doug Ghim; 8) Greyson Sigg; 9) Andrew Putnam; 10) Ben Griffin; 11) Kevin Yu; 12) Matti Schmid; 13) David Lipsky / Justin Lower / Andrew Novak; 16) Rico Hoey; 17) Kevin Tway; 18) Patrick Rodgers / Jhonattan Vegas; 20) Nick Hardy; 21) Carson Young; 22) Daniel Berger / Jacob Bridgeman / Nico Echavarria / Michael Kim / Henrik Norlander / Austin Smotherman.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the Bermuda winners since 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2023, Camilo Villegas (-24). 276 yards (74th), 67.9% fairways (16th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 76.9% scrambling (16th), 1.63 putts per GIR (11th).
2022, Seamus Power (-19). 302 yards (22nd), 55.4% fairways (43rd), 75.0% greens in regulation (9th), 61.1% scrambling (46th), 1.56 putts per GIR (3rd).
2021, Lucas Herbert (-15). 286 yards (7th), 51.8% fairways (53rd), 62.5% greens in regulation (58th), 77.8% scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
2020, Brian Gay (-15). 288 yards (38th), 58.9% fairways (4th), 69.4% greens in regulation (15th), 72.7% scrambling (16th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
2019, Brendon Todd (-24). 303 yards (51st), 69.6% fairways (4th), 76.4% greens in regulation (10th), 82.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.55 putts per GIR (3rd).
Driving Distance: 38th, Driving Accuracy: 24th, Greens in Regulation: 19th, Scrambling: 17th, Putting Average 7th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Port Royal Golf Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Camilo Villegas (2023): Sunday – “I think the shot on 11 was very important for me. It was a tough shot where anything could happen. I hit a pure 6-iron. I almost drove that green on Friday and today I hit driver, 6-iron, that’s how different it was playing. That was very important: Then I made a great par save on the next hole, on 12. Missing some opportunities on 13, 14, good birdie 15 and then missing another opportunity on 16. I thought I made that putt on 16, and trust me, having a two-shot lead is very different than having a one-shot lead. So when I saw Alex hit a bad chip on No. 17, I didn’t have the best lie in that bunker but I looked at my caddie and I said, OK, brother, let’s hit a good shot here. Came out a little better than I expected, nice tap-in birdie, gave me a little cushion, a little freedom going to the next hole.”
Seamus Power (2022): Friday: “Yeah, I mean, 9, so 9 yesterday I just ship it over both bunkers and have like a three-quarter lob wedge to the back pin. Today, one, you can’t take the bunkers out of play and it’s dead into the wind. I hit a very good tee shot, just caught the bunker. And 2 then you’ve got a shot where it’s into the wind, into the rain on a green where you can’t really spin it, so you’re worried about that because it can come back down, it can come 50 yards back down that fairway. So you have guys hit 9 and 8-irons in there where it was like lob wedges yesterday. The difficulty with the pin and all that, it’s going to make it very different.
And then 17 is the other one, 17 yesterday was a driver, mid-iron for most guys, par 5, where today I don’t even know if you can carry the bunkers. It’s going to be a three-shotter, especially in the afternoon with that rain unless it kind of eases off. You take away a couple of very good birdie chances just like that and that’s adding probably a stroke between the two to the stroke average for the day.”
Saturday: “The greens are softer this year so you do have a chance, but even still, like you don’t have much margin for error. I made some nice putts. You had to get the par5s. I got two out of the three and then add in a few putts. But 6 under, you knew it was going to be tough because as I said, once you get to 13, 13 through 16 there’s just very, very difficult. I mean, I hit some good shots. Even on 13 I thought I hit a very good 4-iron, but like the ball’s in the air off the elevated tee and just keeps moving and moving and misses on the short side and you make a double.
Even on I think 15 I had a pitch shot that kind of summed it up. I ended up in a funny spot off the tee, I had like 50 yards for a pitch shot and I aimed my pitch shot about 10 yards left of the pin and ended up right of the pin. It was just one of those kind of days, your imagination had to keep working. Your focus and trust had to be there and mine was for the most part.”
Lucas Herbert (2021): “Yeah, it wasn’t looking like the best day on the planet there on the 8th walking off the tee when we were all like huddled under umbrellas on the ground because I don’t think I’ve ever seen any sort of weather or rain or whatever you want to call that coming in, that was brutal. Yeah, to survive all that, I’m very proud.
Yeah, I felt like I grinded really well early and I had the right attitude going into the day that it wasn’t going to be easy. Obviously on the range it was, I don’t think we even hit drivers on the range because just couldn’t hit it, it was just pointless, so you just knew it was going to be one of those days where you had to battle really, really hard. Under par was going to be a great score. I couldn’t go and expect to finish at 20 under par or anything like that, you just had to grind through. Yeah, there was going to be some holes where it was going to die down a little bit and give you a chance, just had to kind of take your chances on those when you did get them.”
Matt Fitzpatrick (2021): “Yeah, it’s tough. The elevation is a lot around this golf course. Me and my caddie definitely noticed it this morning walking up and down the hills, it was tiring. I think it’s one that you’ve got to, certainly the second shots that are up the hill that are pretty blind, you’ve really got to know where you’re hitting it. You’ve got to pick good targets and got to be very disciplined, you can’t get too aggressive. I think in terms of the elevation, you’ve got to be in control of your ball flight and know your numbers and distances, where to hit and where not to. I think there’s a lot of mental stuff involved and you’ve really got to think your way around. I think for me, I enjoy that part of the game, it’s a challenge. And you’ve got to be on it for 72 holes, so I’m looking forward to that.”
Taylor Pendrith (2021): “It was two different days, for sure. You know, yesterday was some of the worst weather I’ve ever played in and just almost like surviving out there. Didn’t really matter how you hit it, you just have to hit shots. Today was a completely different story. I knew I was putting good. I hit a close one on 1 and then I think every other putt after that was, you know, 10-plus footers and a couple 20-footers, which was nice to see go in. I feel like I’ve been putting pretty well leading up to this event and just haven’t really been making many, so to see some longer ones go in gave me a lot of confidence.
On 17 I hit driver. Yesterday was straight downwind and blowing a lot. I hit driver and a sand wedge to a foot. I figured I’m going to hit driver; if I pull it in the water, I’m going to drop it at 120 yards and hit a wedge on the green and can still make birdie that way. But it sets up good for me with the wind slightly off the right. Hit driver again today and hit pitching wedge to eight feet, was in the right rough. And yeah, I don’t know, I thought about hitting iron there, but it’s pretty wide where my drive lands, so like I said, if I do tug it and it goes in the water, I’ve got a wedge for my third anyways.”
Brian Gay (2020): “It reminds me actually, walking around, kind of walking around Maui is what it reminds me of Yeah, I played good here last year, tied for third, so coming back had good thoughts and memories of last year. Love playing on bermudagrass, grew up on it, live in Florida, so that’s good, I love putting on Bermuda. Just good thoughts here.
It’s not a long golf course. It’s a golf course where I get a lot of short clubs and you can’t really overpower the golf course. It keeps the shorter hitters in the game, everybody has a chance here.”
Brendon Todd (2019): “I mean, this golf course is good for me. It’s one of the shorter ones we play on the Tour and it forces everybody to hit the ball with the same clubs off the tee because there’s cross bunkers in certain places. The good thing about that for me is, I’m hitting the same clubs into the greens as everybody else and for some reason that tends to work out well in my favour. So the course is good for me, for my game, and I’ve been swinging well. These greens are grainy, they’re a little bit slow, so you’re always kind of guessing whether it’s two balls or three balls, how hard to hit it. I think everybody’s battling it a little bit, but it’s also why the scores are low, it helps the ball stop close to the hole and you can ram a few in.”
Rob Oppenheim (2019): “A lot of hills, for sure. You know, the wind makes this course, completely changes the course. I got here Monday, played and it was a complete different wind, so this course is very dictated by the wind direction and how much wind. So today it was, I think, the easier wind. It wasn’t up as much as it was the last two days, so you can see there’s some pretty good scores out there. And the greens are in great shape, so I think it’s definitely, they’re receptive as well, so if you’re in the fairway, you can attack it.”
Martin Kaymer: “There are a couple very difficult holes where you can really screw up, where you can make big numbers. When you take 16, for example. But I think when you play on that grass, that Bermuda grass, it’s very important to hit good tee shots. It’s very difficult to judge distances from the first cut, from the rough, so I think the key is really to hit as many fairways as possible. But again, tee shots and then give yourself as many chances as possible. The wind, we all know, is going to be a factor. Playing on an island, it’s not a big surprise. We all have done that in the past, we all know how that works.
Yeah, when you’re standing on that 10th tee box, you know the next four or five holes are going to be difficult, because there are some tricky tee shots, a lot of elevations as well, especially when you’re standing on the 11th fairway and you have to hit it down to the green. It’s very difficult to judge the yardage or to judge the wind more and therefore to judge the yardage. So the back nine, that’s definitely more challenging than the front nine. The first six, seven holes, they’re important that you take advantage of them, that you make at least two or three birdies. That helps for the back nine.”
Jim Furyk: “Not at all. 17th is very reachable for me. The 7th is an iron shot for me in for a second shot. The only hole that I might give up ground on, is No. 2. But, I just played the fives really poorly. I drove it bad on 7, I did hit a bad drive there. A bad second shot on 17. I hit a good bunker shot, missed the putt. Hit a bad wedge into No. 2. I had it laid up perfect. No, I didn’t take advantage of the 5’s, but it’s not really the yardage. Two of them are very, very short. They’re long par-4s, really. Then the second hole is not going to be reachable for me unless it gets real downwind. But, I need to do a little better job with my wedge game. It’s not a power, this golf course, power has nothing to do with playing well on this golf course. I realized those three are all very long, but they’re also very good at scoring. Bubba can hit a lot of shots and work it into the wind. Rory’s obviously able to do that, being the No. 1 player in the world. And Martin is a good ball-striker. So, the power isn’t part of it, but they can move the ball better than I did today.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Camilo Villegas.
3 – Kevin Kisner, Brandt Snedeker.
2 – Daniel Berger, Ben Crane, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Scott Piercy, Nick Taylor.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Wesley Bryan, Cameron Champ, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Cody Gribble, Nick Hardy, Garrick Higgo, Martin Laird, Francesco Molinari, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, Seamus Power, Kevin Streelman, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney, Kevin Yu.
We have 5 renewals of the Bermuda Championship to work from. Two (2019 & 2024) featured scoring-friendly conditions, the other three (2020, 2021 & 2022) featured plenty of wind – hence the winning totals were 5-9 shots apart.
What is apparent is that Port Royal does not discriminate. Long bombers such as Wyndham Clark, Harry Higgs, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Rodgers, Scottie Scheffler and Adam Scott have all contended, and in the case of Lucas Herbert have won here. Seamus Power is middle of the road off the tee, whilst short game specialists Brian Gay, Brendon Todd and Camilo Villegas have also won here. All shapes and sizes can compete.
Trends change, but to this point Brendon Todd won this at 100/1 in 2019, Brian Gay was even more left field at 200/1 in 2020. Since then Lucas Herbert was an 80/1 chance in 2021, Seamus Power was as short as 22/1 and with Camilo Villegas we reverted back to 150/1.
Todd in 2019 was ranked 525th in the OWGR and his last top 10 finish on the PGA Tour had been at the 2015 Greenbrier Classic. Brian Gay was ranked 328th in the OWGR and his previous top 10 has been 3rd here in Bermuda 12 months earlier. “Rookie” Lucas Herbert was ranked 57th in the OWGR and was playing only his 3rd event on the PGA Tour as a genuine member. He had missed both previous cuts at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms Championship. Seamus Power backed up his first PGA Tour win at the Barbasol Championship 16 months prior with his second here – he was ranked 48th in the OWGR. Camilo Villegas was 318th in the OWGR and 147th in the FedEx Cup Fall Series List. The Colombian had not won on Tour for 9 years, but was T2 the week before in Mexico, so had both form and the need to perform in Bermuda to improve his playing privileges for 2024.
My Final Bermuda Championship Tips Are As Follows:
I will start with Ben Griffin who for me is due a maiden PGA Tour title sooner rather than later, plus at 58th in the FedExCup Fall Series (or 8th in the AON Next 10) he still has plenty to play for. Bermudagrass is by far his favourite surface and he thrives on short golf courses, so Port Royal is pretty perfect for the 28 year-old. So 24th last week on a course at El Cardonal which is pretty much too long and features Paspalum grass on which he has never had a top 10 finish both on the PGA or Korn Ferry Tour really stood out to me. -15/129 across Friday and Saturday was only beaten by Carson Young and highlights that Ben is in superb form, heading to a course where he has already had success.
3rd here in 2022, Griffin last year described Port Royal thus, “I like the golf course, I like the course type with the Bermudagrass and the green types, and I feel like it’s a course that sets up well for my game. It was a no-brainer for me to be here this week and just excited to give it another run and try to get this thing done.”
Getting it done refers to the fact that he was 1st here heading into Sunday, something he has since done at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship again finishing just shy with a T2 finish.
But I’ve seen progress with Griffin in 2024. 2nd after 54 holes at the RBC Canadian Open played at Hamilton G&CC, he played in the last group with Robert MacIntyre and kept him honest with a -5/65, losing by a single stroke. 3rd after 54 holes at the Wyndham Championship in August, he finished 7th. 5th at the John Deere Classic in July, short courses are where Griffin comes to the party, and I’m hoping for big things this week at Port Royal for the World Number 72.
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Daniel Berger 1.5pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
This could be a break-out week for Daniel Berger in my opinion. A 4-time winner on the PGA Tour, Daniel has been as high as 12th in the Official World Golf Rankings and is a Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup winner, plus the Floridian is approaching $30 million of winnings across his career. He’s never played at the Bermuda Championship, but then in the past he’s never had to and I genuinely believe the course will suit.
You see Berger is a little old-style and in recent tournaments where -22, -23, -22 and -24 have been required to win, he’s been a little blown away by the scoring. That makes sense when you note his victories have come at -13/267, -10/277, -15/265 and -18/270. A windy, coastal assignment should well slow scoring and Daniel should well gravitate a little higher on the leaderboard.
And it’s not as if Berger is playing badly. Rounds of 65-65-67-65-65-67-67-66-64 amongst his last 16 rounds highlight a player who in this field ranks in the top 25 for Strokes Gained Current Form. He just needs to start tournaments a little quicker.
A Pebble Beach winner in 2021, Berger was 8th at the Open Championship hosted at Royal St Georges that year. Now within the top 125 (124th) in the FedExCup Fall Series List, Berger knows that one more strong finish in Bermuda will seal the deal when it comes to earning full playing privileges for 2025.
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Greyson Sigg has been playing some nice stuff across the Fall Series and the St Simons Island resident will be looking forward to both this week at Port Royal and next week at the RSM Classic, which is his home event. At 114th in the FedEx Fall Series List, he’s pretty much assured full playing privileges for next season, but after what has been his best period on Tour from a results and Strokes Gained perspective, I expect the 29 year-old may well fancy his chances of picking up a maiden PGA Tour victory.
4th at the Procore Championship in mid-September, Greyson has gone on to finish 11th at the Black Desert Championship and a career-best 23rd at the Shriners Children’s Open placing him within the top 10 for Strokes Gained Current Form in this Bermuda field. 22nd (2021) and 11th (2022) here at Port Royal where he was 6th heading into the final round, Greyson can feed off contending performances in 2024 at Corales, Myrtle Beach and the Procore, where he has hung around when in contention. Weaker fields are definitely a speciality.
8th last year at the RSM Classic where he was 6th heading into Sunday, Sigg has ranked in the top 25 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green across 3 of his last 4 PGA Tour Stats.
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Joel Dahmen is another who makes his Bermuda Championship debut this week but is the sort who loves coastal golf course excursions: 12th (2020) at Waialae; 9th (2019) at Torrey Pines; 6th (2022) at Pebble Beach; 1st (2021) at Corales Golf Club; 16th (2019) and 12th (2022) at Harbour Town; 6th (2019) and 3rd (2022) at El Camaleon; 5th (2022) at Sea Island.
Take our free to use (no pay wall) Predictor Model into account and Dahmen sits in the top 15 overall in my model. As part of that ranking, in this field Joel ranks T3 for results on coastal golf courses on the PGA Tour over the past 5 years, plus 1st for performances in windy conditions.
121st in the FedExCup Fall Series List, Joel is fighting tooth and nail to keep his full playing privileges for 2025 and his 14th last week at El Cardonal was his best finish since the RBC Canadian Open in June.
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I’ll stick with Wesley Bryan for a second consecutive week. A sluggish Friday 71 whilst others were shooting 10 shots better did for Wesley in terms of the victory, but a weekend -13/131 was T3 for last 36 hole scoring and brought home a part each-way payout at 125/1.
The case for Bryan this week is pretty much the same as it was for last. Wesley has now bumped himself up to 128th in the FedExCup Fall Series List. Remember Top 125 earn full PGA Tour cards – a player can enter all non Signature level events of their choice – with 126-150 receiving Conditional Status. A big week will open significant doors for the 34 year-old from South Carolina.
A winner at Harbour Town in 2017 in windy conditions, Wesley has always played well on coastal assignments and I much prefer the short 6,800 yard, Par 71 format this week at Port Royal over the +7,400 yard Par 72 set-up we saw last week at El Cardonal for Bryan. 37th here last year, the difference in 2024 is that Bryan in this field ranks in the top 3 for Strokes Gained Current Form. Plus likely to feed off brother George being in the field.
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