Congratulations if you were on-board Wyndham Clark at 80/1 with William Hill (Monday prices) last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Regulars will know I’ve backed Clark regularly over the years – a real talent with a whole load of game – who finally delivered mentally at Quail Hollow.
The AT&T Byron Nelson sees us return to Texas for the third time in 2023. We were in the LoneStarState previously for the WGC Dell Matchplay and the Valero Texas Open, both of which were played in the immediate weeks before The Masters in April. The Byron Nelson is the curtain-raiser for next week’s PGA Championship at Oak Hill in New York, and features a field which is headlined by Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton and of course K.H. Lee who this week goes for a 3-peat of Byron Nelson victories.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the AT&T Byron Nelson, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: The AT&T Byron Nelson returns to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas for its third visit. A relatively new course to the PGA Tour, Craig Ranch has hosted U.S. Open Sectional Qualifiers in 2019 and various PGA Tour and Korn Ferry 2nd Stage Qualifying Schools, which are worth a look. It’s also hosted a couple of Korn Ferry Tour Championship tournaments across 2008 and 2012. Set in a rolling valley, the course features tree-lined fairways and plenty of water in-play around the course. At a revised 7,414 yards and a Par 71 – previously a Par 72 – the course allows for a real birdie-fest, so expect the same in 2023 with 2-3 shots shaved off the winning total due to the slightly more stretching scorecard.
TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Dallas, Texas: Designer: Tom Weiskopf, 2004; Course Type: Parkland , Resort, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,414 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 13; Fairways: Cavalier Zoysiagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 6,778 sq.ft. average Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft. Course Scoring Average 2021: 69.57 (-2.43), Difficulty Rank 47 of 51 courses (5th easiest). 2022: 69.22 (-2.78), Difficulty Rank 47 of 50 courses (4th easiest).
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-Present Farmers Insurance Open
TPC Scottsdale – Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course Overview: The AT&T Byron Nelson moved in 2021 to a new home. Part of the PGA Tour’s own TPC Network, Craig Ranch has proven to be a breeze for the very best players in the world. Located in McKinney on the north-east fringes of Dallas, Texas, it played as a 7,468 yard, Par 72 set-up, with the standard split of 4 par-3s and 4-par-5s. However the PGA Tour to this point has not been immune to bringing tees forward, making the course play shorter and much easier.
2023 sees the scorecard change to a 7,414 yard, Par 71 set-up. That change has been made by changing the par-5 12th hole at 547 yards, into a stretching 493 yard par-4. This to all intents and purposes changes little, except shaving a few shots off the winning total. Undoubtedly this will still be a resort-level scoring, eagle- and birdie-making test.
The course itself is a Tom Weiskopf design, with gently rolling hills and mature woods surrounding the limestone banks of Rowlett Creek. Ex-PGA Tour player D.A. Weibring also served as a consultant on the golf course design. Water in various guises is apparent throughout the course with Rowlett Creek crossing the course 14 points. The course itself is far more conventional than the quirky faux-links at Trinity Forest, which hosted the Byron Nelson across both 2018 and 2019.
The front 9 at Craig Ranch is where some serious birdies can be made. The 1st, 3rd and 6th holes are all par-4s at 430 yards or less. Throw in 570 yard (5th) and 564 yard (8th) par-5s and there are birdies to be made on these Bentgrass greens. The back 9 sees a driveable par-4 at the 14th, a short 147 yard par-3 at the 17th and an easy par-5 at 552 yards (18th). The 12th has now changed to a 493 yard par-4, whilst the other back 9 holes are made of sterner stuff, but it’s all relative! TPC Craig Ranch played as the 5th easiest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 and the 4th easiest last season and that was with gusting +20 mph winds in-play.
TPC Craig Ranch does share one familiarity with previous host venue Trinity Forest in that the course has been planted from tee to green with Zoysiagrass fairways, which we see on occasions in the southern states of the United States, plus in Japan.
Zoysiagrass fairways also feature at
East Lake (Tour Championship)
Narashino CC (2019, 2021 & 2022 ZOZO Championship)
TPC Southwind (WGC St Jude Championship & WGC-St Jude Invitational & FedEx St Jude Classic)
Zoysia isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers. These fairways also featured at the 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and at Bellerive Country Club which hosted the 2018 PGA Championship.
Winners: Hosted at Craig Ranch: 2022: K.H. Lee (-26); 2021: K.H. Lee (-25); Hosted at Trinity Forest: 2019: Sung Kang (-23); 2018: Aaron Wise (-23); Hosted at AT&T Four Seasons: 2017: Billy Horschel; 2016: Sergio Garcia; 2015: Steven Bowditch; 2014: Brendon Todd; 2013: Sang-moon Bae; 2012: Jason Dufner; 2011: Keegan Bradley; 2010: Jason Day.
2022: K.H. Lee 64-68-67-63 -26/262
2021: K.H. Lee 65-65-67-66 -25/263
OWGR of AT&T Byron Nelson Winners: 2022: K.H. Lee 88; 2021: K.H. Lee 137; 2019: Kang 138.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day, Aaron Wise, Tom Kim, Matt Kuchar, Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Hoge, K.H. Lee, Byeong Hun An and Hideki Matsuyama.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
AT&T Byron Nelson Winners & Prices: 2022: K.H. Lee 125/1; 2021: K.H. Lee 200/1; 2019: Kang 125/1; 2018: Wise 50/1; 2017: Horschel 125/1; 2016: Garcia 25/1; 2015: Bowditch 500/1; 2014: Todd 100/1; 2013: Bae 150/1; 2012: Dufner 22/1; 2011: Bradley 200/1; 2010: Day 100/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 156/1 Overall Average: 127/1.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SSE 13-17 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 14-18 mph, gusting to 24 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 96. Wind S 12-16 mph, gusting to 23 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 71. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 12-18 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High of 74. Wind W 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High of 81. Wind SSW 12-15 mph with gusts of 30 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Dallas, Texas, is here.
Expect firm fairways and watered greens this week as we have seen here since 2021. The tournament will be cooler than last year, but pleasant enough at 25-29 degrees Celsius, that’s 77 – 84 Fahrenheit. Wind levels are per both 2021 and 2022 should be in-play – it’s Texas after all, but they may disappear for Sunday. Also there is the threat of thunderstorms around, which could suspend play and soften the course. With a change from a Par 72 to a Par 71 I’d therefore expect tighter scoring, but a birdie-fest nonetheless.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valspar Championship / SDC Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Adam Schenk; 3) Derek Lamely; 4) Hideki Matsuyama; 5) Cameron Champ; 6) Cameron Percy; 7) Carl Yuan; 8) Jason Day / Si Woo Kim / Luke List; 11) Tyrrell Hatton / Seung-yul Noh / J.J. Spaun; 14) Byeong Hun An / Tom Kim; 16) S.H. Kim / Ryan Palmer; 18) Michael Thompson; 19) James Hahn / Davis Thompson / Trevor Werbylo; 22) Garrick Higgo; 23) Joseph Bramlett / Adam Scott; 25) Scott Stallings.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Derek Lamely; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 5) Hideki Matsuyama; 6) Kevin Chappell / Tom Kim / Erik van Rooyen; 9) Nate Lashley; 10) Michael Kim; 11) K.H. Lee / Sam Stevens; 13) Lucas Glover / Charley Hoffman; 15) Alex Smalley; 16) Kevin Roy; 17) Eric Cole / Dylan Wu; 19) Davis Riley; 20) Joseph Bramlett; 21) Tyrrell Hatton / David Lipsky; 23) Jason Dufner / Augusto Nunez / Scott Stallings.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Aaron Baddeley; 2) Matt Kuchar / Geoff Ogilvy; 4) Jonathan Byrd / Derek Ernst; 6) Jonas Blixt; 7) Scott Brown; 8) Min Woo Lee; 9) Ricky Barnes; 10) Harry Hall; 11) Stephan Jaeger / Adam Scott; 13) Tom Kim; 14) Tyrrell Hatton / Aaron Wise; 16) S.H. Kim; 17) Mackenzie Hughes / Taylor Montgomery; 19) Joseph Bramlett / Seung-yul Noh / Jimmy Walker; 22) Ben Griffin / Hideki Matsuyama; 24) Scott Harrington / Andrew Landry.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Derek Lamely / Hideki Matsuyama; 4) J.J. Spaun; 5) Joseph Bramlett; 6) Tyrrell Hatton; 7) Tom Kim; 8) Stephan Jaeger / Matt Kuchar / Seung-yul Noh; 11) Kevin Chappell; 12) Adam Scott / Sam Stevens; 14) Eric Cole / Si Woo Kim; 16) Geoff Ogilvy / Adam Schenk; 18) Scott Stallings / Trevor Werbylo; 20) Byeong Hun An; 21) Charley Hoffman / S.H. Kim / K.H. Lee / Greyson Sigg; 25) Jimmy Walker.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Greg Chalmers; 2) Aaron Baddeley; 3) Aaron Wise; 4) Michael Kim / Matt Kuchar; 6) Justin Suh; 7) K.H. Lee; 8) Ben Griffin; 9) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Adam Hadwin / Maverick McNealy; 12) Jason Day / Marty Dou; 14) Adam Scott; 15) Jimmy Walker; 16) Min Woo Lee / Sean O’Hair; 18) Bill Haas / Andrew Novak / Dylan Wu; 21) Ryan Brehm / Kevin Chappell / Patton Kizzire / Austin Smotherman; 25) Chad Ramey.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Matt Kuchar; 3) Kevin Chappell / K.H. Lee; 5) Hideki Matsuyama; 6) Michael Kim; 7) Adam Scott / Dylan Wu; 9) Andrew Novak; 10) Jason Day / Tyrrell Hatton / Jimmy Walker; 13) J.J. Spaun; 14) Joseph Bramlett / Adam Schenk; 16) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Cody Gribble; 18) Tom Kim; 19) M.J. Daffue / Seung-yul Noh; 21) Aaron Baddeley / Eric Cole; 23) Sean O’Hair / Sam Stevens; 25) Stephan Jaeger.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the AT&T Byron Nelson winners here at TPC Craig Ranch since 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this low scoring, Texan test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, K.H. Lee (-26). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 10th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 13th.
2021, K.H. Lee (-25). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 9th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 22nd, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 11th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of AT&T Byron Nelson winners here since 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, K.H. Lee (-26). 307 yards (49th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (18th), 44’9″ proximity to hole (76th), 88.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (33rd).
2021, K.H. Lee (-25). 292 yards (35th), 66.1% fairways (41st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 34’3″ proximity to hole (4th), 78.6 % scrambling (18th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 42nd, Driving Accuracy: 32nd, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Proximity to Hole: 40th, Scrambling: 11th, Putting Average 18th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how the TPC Craig Ranch course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
K.H. Lee (2022): ” I think here is irons game, need irons game good and also putting, because a lot of guys a lot birdie and eagle, so need to low under par. I’m comfortable with tee shot here. I hit a really good iron shot and then I think the key here is iron shot, because a lot of guys make a birdie. So when I hear par-3 or when I tee shot any holes, very, very comfortable, then make more confidence and then it helped this week.”
“Honestly, just my goal is when I, before final round I want to play well, but I don’t think about win, just keep momentum and next week. But No. 2 I think birdie, maybe 50 feet something, make a long putt. And then on number 3 it’s pretty, like 25 feet in the hole. So make more momentum. And then No. 12 make eagle. So I think maybe some chance winning again, so that makes more confidence in myself at that time.”
Jordan Spieth (2022): “So if you’re in the fairway you can attack pins on a lot of the greens, but if you’re not you’re really out of position because they stick ’em over in corners and the way the course is designed it’s, you have to be able to have spin on the ball to get close to the pin. So it’s still going to be a premium on driving, probably more of a premium on driving the ball accurately than it was maybe last year, just because the fairways will play 5 to 10 yards smaller with how firm they are and I think that that’s going to be what the tournament, the Tour, everybody wants out of this place. It can show a little bit of teeth and it’s certainly in the best condition, shape I’ve ever seen it in.”
“I think I said ahead of time I thought that it would show a little more teeth than last year and I couldn’t have been more wrong. I mean a 60 yesterday and a lot of 8s and 7s all over the board. I mean it’s just, a lot of tees are up, it was very surprising. Like the 9th tee being up on the front box, I hit 7 and 8-iron into that par-5 and it’s just designed to have to hit a shot from 250 yards. So obviously that’s nice when you’re in the situation. But they moved some par-3s up too. They moved, like No. 2 they moved to the front of the box. Some interesting ones. And then I think they were looking at the weekend as a lot less wind and so they used more of the easier pins the first two days because I can only name one or two pins on this golf course that were not the easiest two locations that are on the greens. So maybe that’s the reason why, I’m not sure. I’m a little bit surprised at how, on a not-so-difficult golf course they have also set it up a little easier for us too.”
Charl Schwartzel (2021): “ Yeah, I did think about it halfway through the back nine. I was like, I haven’t had a round without a bogey for quite sometime. I’ve been playing well. You know, this golf course is really there for the taking, so if there was ever one to do it on, it would be this one. Yeah, especially after last week, Quail Hollow is such a tough golf course and you have to be very strategic. I found myself through the first 12 holes being too conservative, and I turned to my caddie and said, Course is soft. I don’t think we can keep hitting away from the flags. It’s a mental shift. I tried to be a bit more aggressive.
This course driving is quite easy, so it’s all second shots, trying to get them close enough. End of the day this tournament is going to come down to a putting contest, who putts the best.”
Sergio Garcia (2021): “For my eagle on 6. Yes, we hit driver and thought we couldn’t reach because it was into the wind, but we knew if we hit it in the fairway we’re going to be around that 50 yard range, and a little bit into the breeze even with a front pin I could nip it nicely out of the Zoysiagrass and spin it. Caught it perfectly. As soon as hit it I knew it was going to be close. Didn’t know if it was going to go in or not, but knew it was going to be close. It was nice to hear the crowd go a little bit crazy there, because we couldn’t see it go in.”
Matt Kuchar (2021): “Warming up on the range this morning it was blowing hard. I was nervous going out there. I saw some pretty good scores up on the leaderboard thinking, boy, I don’t see how the guys are putting them up. I know the course is receptive, but with 15 to 20 mile an hour winds it’s a lot more challenging. Thankfully I was able to get a few birdies early on and kind of get off to a really good start. Think I was 4-under through 6, and made me feel like, All right, it is gettable. Let’s see if we can keep going, and was able to get in with 6-under par today.
Yeah, you never know when the birdies are going to come. You take them when they come, and I was grateful to get them early. Couple scoring holes, I think the third hole is a scoring hole, was able to take advantage there. Then the 5th hole is a par-5, so those two are good. The 6th hole is also almost a drivable hole. So kind of took advantage of those three really easy holes and threw another birdie in as well.”
Patton Kizzire (2021):”I would say my approach, my iron game is one of my strengths, and that’s huge when you match that with my putting. My putting is the best part of my game by far, so when I start hitting the iron shots close I can go low, and I did today.Yeah, I’ll take a lot of confidence. Yeah, so on 15 tee the storm came in, and, gosh, it seemed like it sped everything up. You got the umbrella, you got the wind, rain, yardage, you got so many different factors going and it throws your routine off.
15, 16, 17, and 18, played very difficult, and I would’ve liked to played them under par. The birdie on 17 helped me get it back to even on those four holes, and certainly would’ve liked to birdie 18. But I’m going to hang around and see what happens, and very pleased with 9-under. Most of my wins have come on courses with low scoring, so I enjoy this type of golf. I like to try to go low. I like a lot of birdies and I’ll be back next year. ”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson since 2010:
2017 – Barnes / Hahn – Both AM -6/64 – 200/1 & 125/1.
2016 – Garcia / D Lee / Wagner – 1AM/2PM -7/63.
2015 – Bowditch – AM -8/62.
2014 – Hanson – PM -5/65.
2013 – Bradley – AM -10/60.
2012 – Palmer – PM -6/64.
2011 – Overton – PM -6/64.
2010 – Day / Mahan – AM/PM Split -4/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama.
3 – Lucas Glover, Ryan Moore, Adam Scott.
2 – Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
1 – Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Dylan Frittelli, Bill Haas, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Tom Kim, Michael Kim, Russell Knox, Ben Martin, Trey Mullinax, Sean O’Hair, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Scottie Scheffler, Scott Stallings, Michael Thompson, Camilo Villegas, Nick Watney.
The Byron Nelson is always a difficult tournament to call and a move, 2 years ago, to yet another new course adds another level of intrigue to this betting heat. As a tournament, we’ve seen a whole list of unexpected winners. Indeed Jason Day (this was 2010), Keegan Bradley, Sang-moon Bae, Brendon Todd, Steven Bowditch, Billy Horschel, Sung Kang and K.H. Lee (twice) have won 9 of the past 12 renewals at triple-digits. Bowditch topped the lot price-wise delivering a 500/1 coup for the bookmakers 8 years ago. K.H. Lee’s 2 wins here at TPC Craig Ranch came at 200/1 and 125/1.
On the reverse side, Jason Dufner (22/1 in 2012) and Sergio Garcia (25/1 in 2016), have been the only short-priced players in the betting market who ultimately prevailed since 2010. And 2018 saw the prestigiously talented Aaron Wise overhaul long term leader Marc Leishman and capture his first PGA Tour title at 50/1.
Another angle is that recent winners K.H. Lee, Kang, Wise, Todd, Bae, Bradley and Day had never won on the PGA Tour.
Jason Dufner in 2012 had only captured his previous victory 2 appearances prior at TPC Louisiana. 2017 saw Billy Horschel arrive with form of MC-MC-MC-MC to then go onto capture his 4th PGA Tour victory. The Floridian had not won a tournament since the 2014 Tour Championship ending a 2 and 1/2 year hiatus. Sergio Garcia in 2016 had not won on the PGA Tour for 2 and 3/4 years. K.H Lee won when defending his maiden PGA Tour title. It’s certainly a mixed picture!
From a timing perspective, we now have 2019, 2021 and 2022 renewals to work from in terms of this tournament the week prior to the PGA Championship in May.
For 2019 it’s worth pointing out that it was a far weaker field than this week’s as its headline players featured only Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed. Winner Sung Kang was a 125/1 shot. He ranked 138th in the Official World Golf Rankings – and had no entry for the PGA Championship. Scott Piercy finished T2 with Matt Every. Piercy at 50/1 had finished 3rd on his previous outing at Harbour Town, whilst Matt Every had finished 3rd in the team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans 2 starts prior. 15/2 tournament favourite Brooks Koepka finished 4th and went on to win the PGA Championship a week later in New York.
For 2021 the tournament contained Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama and Marc Leishman. Winner K.H. Lee was a 200/1 shot. He ranked 138th in the Official World Golf Rankings – and had no entry for the PGA Championship. Sam Burns finished runner-up at 33/1 and had won his maiden PGA Tour title on his last outing at Copperhead. Of the shortest prices, Daniel Berger was the best finisher after he back-doored a T3, with a closing -8/64 catapulting him from 18th spot. He went on to finish 75th at the PGA Championship a week later. 12/1 shot Jordan Spieth led after 18 holes and was still T3 going into Sunday, where he went backwards finishing T9. 22/1 chance Brooks Koepka missed the cut at the Byron and then finished 2nd at Kiawah Island a week later.
That takes us to 2022 where K.H. Lee successfully defended his crown at 125/1 – the South Korean had a OWGR rank of 88th and was in the PGA Championship field. The field also contained elites in the form of Scheffler, Thomas, Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Spieth, Burns, Zalatoris, Matsuyama, Niemann and Koepka, who all played at prices 28/1 and shorter. Jordan Spieth went for broke at an event he loves and finished 2nd at 20/1. Both Schauffele (20/1) and Matsuyama (28/1) back doored T5 finishes with scorching -11/61 and -10/62 final rounds, whilst eventual PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas was always within 3 shots of the lead going into Sunday eventually finishing T5 at 14/1.
My Final Byron Nelson Championship Tips Are As Follows:
Jordan Spieth – WD PRE-EVENT
Let’s start with Jordan Spieth who from a mentality perspective must be craving his first ever AT&T Byron Nelson win, rather than purely prepping himself for a PGA Championship and Major Grand Slam challenge at Oak Hill next week. In a weaker field, plus with Jordan’s game in rude health – then you read a quote from 12 months ago highlighting what the Byron Nelson means to the 29 year-old; “I love playing at home, I would love to win it some day.” So for me there is no question but to sign-up Spieth for the Byron Nelson this week.
6th at the TPC Scottsdale, 4th at Bay Hill, 3rd at Copperhead, 4th at Augusta National and a play-off defeat runner-up finish to Matt Fitzpatrick when defending his RBC Heritage title at Harbour Town – Jordan has hit the richest vein of form in 2023. And you can see that in my 8-week tracker numbers, where in this field he ranks: 9th for Strokes Gained on Approach, 12th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 9th for Strokes Gained Putting and 13th for Strokes Gained Current Form. And what about his performances leading into a Major?
Well Spieth always likes to arrive in the very peak of his form. So since his rookie season of 2013 in outings prior to a Major, Spieth has finished 1st at the 2013 John Deere Classic, 7th at the 2014 John Deere Classic, 2nd at the 2015 Houston Open, 3rd at the 2015 Memorial Tournament, 1st at the 2015 John Deere Classic, 10th at the 2015 WGC Bridgestone Invitational, 3rd at the 2016 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, 1st at the 2017 Travelers Championship, 3rd at the 2018 Houston Open, 7th at the 2019 Memorial Tournament, 1st at the 2021 Valero Texas Open, 9th at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson, 2nd at the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson and 10th at the 2022 Scottish Open. That’s 4 victories, plus an additional 5 top-5s and 5 top-10s.
The Texas angle is also fascinating. 10th (2014), 2nd (2015) and 1st (2021) at TPC San Antonio; 7th (2013), 2nd (2015), 1st (2016), 2nd (2017), 8th (2019) and 10th (2021) at Colonial; 2nd (2015) and 3rd (2018) at the GC of Houston. Before the move to TPC Craig Ranch it was only his home town Byron Nelson where he actually struggled with nothing better than 16th in 9 appearances at TPC Las Colinas. But the move to Craig Ranch has been a revelation with 9th in 2021 and a single shot runner-up to K.H. Lee 12 months ago.
For me Jordan will undoubtedly be motivated to add the 3rd-leg of his Texas Grand Slam to his CV this week.WD PRE-EVENT
Tyrrell Hatton 2pts ew 14/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Post Jordan Spieth’s late Monday WD, I will insert Tyrrell Hatton who comes into the AT&T Byron Nelson in great nick.
Now based in Orlando, Florida, Tyrrell is U.S. domiciled the majority of the time and his PGA Tour form in Ryder Cup year has been excellent. 6th at the Phoenix Open, 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2nd at the Players Championship and 3rd last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he ranked 7th for Approach and 3rd for Tee to Green. In fact he gained 11.36 shots Tee to Green over the field which was his best performance in the United States since the 2021 Palmetto Championship.
The parkland TPC Craig Ranch course has no real tricks, but we know low scoring will be the order of the day. And that for me again points to Tyrrell. Wins at the 2016 and 2017 Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, 2017 Italian Open, 2019 Turkish Airlines Open and the 2020 BMW PGA Championship have come at -23/265, -24/264, -21/263, -20/268 and -19/269 respectively. That’s a combined -107 under par. More than happy on Bentgrass putting surfaces (both his Italian Open & BMW PGA Championship wins came on them), I think he’ll be more than motivated for this week’s Dallas debut having seen fellow Englishmen Justin Rose, Matt Wallace and Matt Fitzpatrick win on the PGA Tour since the turn of the year. Hatton is also the sort who wins off of hot form and his last 5 DP World Tour victories have all come at 22/1, 18/1, 18/1, 16/1 and 12/1, so we are fishing in the right waters this week. RESULT: T5
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Tom Kim must be looking forward to the AT&T Byron Nelson this week. Based in Dallas, Texas, he’ll be sleeping in his own bed and he will also have the luxury of returning to a golf course he actually knows and competed at last year. Rewind 12 months and Tom was playing in his first 2022 PGA Tour start with no status whatsoever. He started slowly with an opening day 70 and then went on to shoot 67-66-67 to finish 17th, interestingly being T11 for both final 36- and 54-hole scoring across the field. 5th for Approach and 12th for Tee to Green, Joohyung acquitted himself wonderfully.
12 months on and Tom finds himself in great nick both Off the Tee and Tee to Green. 13th for Driving Distance last week at Quail Hollow – he’s longer than you think – “TK” ranked in the top 20 across all Tee to Green facets, ranking 6th overall for Tee to Green at the Wells Fargo on his way to 23rd overall. Hopefully a change to Bentgrass will enliven the putter which we’ve seen can be excellent at birdie-fests.
A 2-time winner on the PGA Tour at the age of 20, those wins at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) plus at TPC Summerlin (Shriners Children’s Open) came at -20/260 and -24/260 respectively on course debuts, so the South Korean undoubtedly has the ability to shoot low scores. And at an event in Dallas, which has been won by Dallas-based South Korean players across the past 3 renewals, I think Tom will be looking to play very nicely this week at TPC Craig Ranch.RESULT: T34
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Seamus Power is another to like at a nice price. For me he’s always been the sort who goes well on resort scoring tests and clearly the Waterford born 36 year-old is now ensconced in the OWGR top 40. PGA Tour wins have come at -21/267 (2021 Barbasol Championship) and -19/265 (2022 Bermuda Championship) across the past 2 seasons and Seamus has plenty of motivation in 2023, with a place on Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup Team Europe a definite possibility. 2022 saw Power make the Quarter Finals at the WGC Dell Matchplay, finish 9th at the PGA Championship and 12th at the U.S. Open.
But Power’s “bread and butter” are these weaker PGA Tour events – take this season where he has already finished 1st at the Bermuda Championship, 3rd at the World Wide Technology at Mayakoba and 5th at the RSM Classic. 2023 has seen him concentrate on the designated events with 14th at the Genesis Invitational and last week’s 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship helping to move him towards a Team Europe berth.
But for me Seamus will enjoy the far weaker field this week in Dallas at an event where he has already had success. 9th (2021) and 17th (2022) here he ranks 6th in this field for Strokes Gained Total here at TPC Craig Ranch. RESULT: T19
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J.J. Spaun is the strategic, nuggety sort I like for TPC Craig Ranch. A player who gains more Off the Tee through metronomic consistency and middle of the road driving distance rather than pure power, I think the Californian is well suited to the task this week. Spaun’s struggles this year have been on the par-5s – so a move to a Par 71 format with only 3 par-5s in 2023 will advantage the 32 year-old who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona. 19th for Greens in Regulation so far this season on the PGA Tour, approaches from 100–150 and from 175-200 yards are the World Number 73’s “bread and butter.”
He’s also the type who has always scored well on tests where it’s required. 4th (2017) at TPC Scottsdale; 2nd (2017) at Sea Island; 3rd (2018) at Montreux; 3rd (2018) at Mayakoba; 8th (2022) at Detroit Golf Club; plus 5th (2023) at Kapalua. He can plot his way around and amass a very decent total. 8th for Bogey Avoidance this season is also a decent number to look into, because you don’t want to be “leaking oil” when birdies are the real currency.
Spaun also performs well in Texas. 3rd at the 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson played at Trinity Forest GC saw J.J. shoot -19/262, on a course featuring Trinity Zoysiagrass. Spaun then of course went on to win the 2022 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, his maiden and to this point, his only PGA Tour victory. The good play in the Lone Star State doesn’t stop there as in March wins over Matt Fitzpatrick (5&3), Sahith Theegala (5&4) and Min Woo Lee (2&1), were unexpected and pretty emphatic, as Spaun made it to the Round of 16.
27th last week at Quail Hollow, J.J. was the First Round Leader here in 2021 and has been in the mix at the midway point on both his visits to TPC Craig Ranch. He’s also been playing well enough across the past 8 weeks to rank, in this field, across my Strokes Gained trackers, 3rd for Approach, 4th for Tee to Green and 13th for Current Form.WD PRE-EVENT
Michael Kim 1pt ew 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
When it comes to birdie-fests, Michael Kim left a huge mental note for me written with a rather large indelible pen when he won the 2018 John Deere Classic. I know it’s coming up to 5 years ago, but back then at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, he beat Francesco Molinari by the mere matter of 8 shots to capture his first and to this date only PGA Tour victory. Both Francesco and Michael jumped on the John Deere Classic charter flight across to Scotland that Sunday night, where 7 days later Molinari won the Open Championship at Carnoustie, whereas Kim finished 31st. To this date that’s Kim’s highest Major Championship finish.
Now Michael Kim won that 2018 John Deere Classic with a winning total of -27/257, highlighting that the 29 year-old, who was born in Seoul, South Korea, but grew-up in California, can shoot amazingly low totals. He favours Bentgrass greens and he’s playing some really good golf right now. Since his promotion back to the Tour from the Korn Ferry last year, 2023 has seen the 29 year-old finish 11th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 5th at the Puerto Rico Open and 7th last week at the Wells Fargo Championship which undoubtedly is his best result since his John Deere victory. 8th for Driving Distance, 3rd for Total Driving, 3rd for Greens in Regulation and 1st for Ball Striking, the Texas resident, from a Strokes Gained perspective, also ranked 9th for Off The Tee, 12th for Tee to Green and 19th for Putting.
Plus across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers, in this field, he ranks 10th for Approach, 4th for Putting and 6th for Current Form. 27th after 36 holes and 67th here on his only appearance in 2021, when arriving off form which read 7 MCs and a WD from his last 8 PGA Tour singles appearances. RESULT: MC
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:50BST 8.5.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation. Hatton and Power added 10:45BST 9.5.23, odds correct when published.
