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The AT&T Byron Nelson Championship sees us return to Texas for the second half of the Texas swing. After The Players Championship, we now move into the segment of the season that will focus on the U.S. Open which is now only 4 weeks away. The Byron Nelson has moved venues this year, with the tournament now being hosted for the very first time at Trinity Forest Golf Club. Built on land which was previously used as a landfill site, Trinity Forest is a high-profile private club development in south-east Dallas designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. Built to mimic a genuine links golf course, the course visually looks very intimidating with plenty of contours, difficult green complexes, run-off areas and plenty of native areas surrounding fairways. Results right now are key for many with U.S. Open OWGR top-60 qualification (first cut-off next Monday) and the Ryder Cup also very much in mind.

We’re back to regular European and PGA Tour action this week so I’ll take this opportunity to highlight Golf Betting System’s unique guide outlining which online bookmakers offer the very best golf each-way terms. Covering both the PGA Tour and European Tour, the results for 2018 to-date including last week’s Players Championship are in with Coral leading the way for each-way places provided, ahead of Paddy Power. The full analysis, which we update monthly, is valuable insight for all golf punters and is well worth a read here.

Course Guide: We take a step into the unknown this week with the PGA Tour visiting Trinity Forest Golf Club for the first time. Set only 15 minutes southeast of downtown Dallas, Trinity Forest has been built on a old landfill site. Using the topography of the old site, eminent co-designers Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw have sculpted a truly unique golf course which has clearly scared off plenty of Tour players this week. The course is a treeless inland links-like design, which features elevation changes, no rough as fairways have native area boundaries and even a shared green.

Trinity Forest Golf Club, Dallas, Texas: Designer: Coore and Crenshaw 2016; Course Type: United States, Links-Style; Par: 71; Length: 7,380 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Fairways: Trinity Zoysiagrass; Rough: Trinity Zoysiagrass with wispy Buffalo grass native areas; Greens: Champion UltraDwarf Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Trinity Forest and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Trinity Forest: Up to 100 yards wide.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.
• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.
• PGA National: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:27; 350:24.
• Riviera: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26; 325:26; 350:28.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 41 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:34 350:29
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:28 350:28
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw designs /re-designs include:

• Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open.

Course Overview: This new golf course designed by the revered Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw partnership will certainly present a totally different challenge to what we saw at TPC Sawgrass last week and also what we see week-in, week-out on the PGA Tour. It undoubtedly presents a unique challenge and that in itself has probably had a lot to do with the fact that the field this week is very weak, despite AT&T putting up a $7.7 million prize fund which is the biggest of the 4-strokeplay events on the Texas swing in 2018. Expect a far better field at Colonial next week, with $600k less up for grabs.

Trinity Forest Golf Club undoubtedly looks like a links golf course, despite the course being only 15 minutes from Dallas city centre. The property is treeless; it’s also quite undulating, with the course built on the undulations left from the landfill it has been built upon. That combination has been maximised to the full by Coore and Crenshaw who set out to build a challenging golf course which can attract Major Championships in the future. The course itself features wide fairways which are bordered by buffalo grass waste areas rather than traditional rough. The course has been set up to play firm and fast and it’s also been designed to look at the very least visually like a United Kingdom or north-east United States links-golf course. Green complexes vary massively in size, but most feature some pretty severe contours and with that in mind they will only play to 10.5ft on the stimpmeter. Coore and Crenshaw also readily admit that they have used techniques from great old-school course designers such as Donald Ross, Tillinghast and Perry Maxwell to present challenges for the players. Indeed the course features a 30,000 sq.ft sized double green across the 3rd and 11th holes. Bunkering is well positioned and challenging, like a links-golf course, however it’s interesting to take on board the comments of club member Jordan Spieth who describes the course by saying, “It’s like an American links. You’ve kind of got to play it from the air, not really a bounce the ball up kind of links, but it is still a links-looking golf course.“

For the Byron Nelson, the 7,450-yard Par 72 course will play as a 7,380 yards Par 71, with the normal par-5 11th playing as a long par-4 (to a massive double green shared by the par-4 third.) Without question, Trinity Forest will be the firmest and fastest course that will be seen in America on the PGA Tour this year. The Tour has asked the Course Superintendent Kasey Kauff to consider raising the height of cut of greens surrounds just slightly, to keep errant shots from rolling 40 or 50 yards away. They consider it a pace of play issue. It’s also been reported from the course this week that the hoses have been switched on, again to make sure that the course does not play too tough – with a lack of the wind that is a huge defence for the course, that should make he course more scoreable this week.

Located in the southern United States, clearly it was never going to be feasible to use Fescue grass across the golf course, so instead the course has been planted in Trinity Zoysiagrass which has comparable spring and bounce. Zoysiagrass also features at TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Classic) and East Lake (Tour Championship) and isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers. These fairways also featured at the 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club.

Greens feature Ultra-Dwarf Champion Bermudagrass. These greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Classic), the Country Club of Jackson (Sandersons Farms Championship) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (Barbasol Championship). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Cub and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Jimmy Walker, Charles Howell III, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Branden Grace, Marc Leishman, Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Valspar Championship / Hero Indian Open and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) John Senden; 2) Ryan Armour; 3) Steve Wheatcroft; 4) Alex Cejka; 5) Roberto Diaz; 6) Ben Crane / Martin Laird; 8) Cameron Percy; 9) Ryan Blaum; 10) Brian Stuard; 11) Jonathan Randolph; 12) David Hearn; 13) Beau Hossler / Satoshi Kodaira; 15) Chad Campbell / Hunter Mahan; 17) C.T. Pan; 18) Kelly Kraft; 19) Brian Gay; 20) Troy Merritt / J.T. Poston.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Adam Scott; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Joaquin Niemann; 4) Blayne Barber; 5) Fabian Gomez / John Senden; 7) Matt Kuchar; 8) J.T. Poston; 9) Keith Mitchell; 10) Peter Uihlein; 11) Charles Howell III / Sam Ryder; 13) Corey Conners; 14) Beau Hossler; 15) Andrew Putnam; 16) Brett Stegmaier; 17) J.J. Spaun; 18) Branden Grace / Troy Merritt / Shawn Stefani.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Ricky Barnes; 2) Brett Stegmaier; 3) Ben Crane / Aaron Wise / Jimmy Walker; 6) Matt Jones; 7) Denny McCarthy; 8) Greg Chalmers; 9) Marc Leishman; 10) Stephan Jaeger; 11) J.T. Poston; 12) Stuart Appleby / Branden Grace / Daniel Summerhays; 15) Kevin Na; 16) David Lingmerth / Hunter Mahan; 18) Billy Horschel / Ben Martin; 20) Roberto Diaz / Harris English / John Huh / Peter Malnati / Vaughn Taylor.

Winners & Prices (TPC Four Seasons): 2017: Horschel 125/1; 2016: Garcia 25/1; 2015: Bowditch 500/1; 2014: Todd 100/1; 2013: Bae 150/1; 2012: Dufner 22/1; 2011: Bradley 200/1; 2010: Day 100/1. Average: 153/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 188/1.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Dallas, Texas, is here. Very hot is the summary for this week in Texas – temperatures of up to 35 degrees Celsius are anticipated. With this in mind the course is being watered pre-event, so unfortunately we won’t see the truly firm and fast course conditions the course designers want. The course is also designed to play in the wind, and that looks likely for only Friday and Saturday. South-westerly breeze gusting to 20 mph and 25 mph on Friday and Saturday should see the course play as the organisers want it to, leaving Thursday and Sunday for serious scoring.

So let’s take a view from players and the course designer as to how Trinity Forest will play this week and what specific skills it requires:

Jordan Spieth: “It looks as good as I’ve seen it since – and I’ve been going out there since before the greens were even sprigged. It looks really good. It’s grown on me a lot over the past six months, and in the springtime, I think it’s at its best. It’s in his best condition that it can be now or the next month or two. I think the weather looks like it’s going to really cooperate to give it a good first showing.

A lot of big grandstands. It’s like an American links. You’ve kind of got to play it from the air, not really a bounce the ball up kind of links, but it is still a links-looking golf course. So it’s weird, it’s unique. It’s actually – Birkdale was kind of the closest comparison I’ve found to a links course that you kind of have to attack from the air. You get maybe four or five, six holes where you can bounce the ball up, but the way to get balls close is to come in with a higher shot. That’s not necessarily true links. I don’t want to say that about Birkdale because of the history and everything, but it’s just the way I’ve found to play it well is that route.“

Bill Coore: “This is one week where the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour might have an equal chance to win. From its look to its playing qualities, Trinity Zoysiagrass is the closest thing to fescue that we’ve seen from a warm season turf. The golf ball will really scamper on this grass, just like you see in the British Isles. But we’re in Dallas.”

Ben Crenshaw: “We tried very hard to present a diverse test of golf. In other words, some shorts holes, some long holes, and we have different-sized greens. We have some very large, and then a couple that were pretty small.

Geoff Ogilvy: “I love it. Strategically, it’s so interesting. It’s got everything that’s missing from modern architecture. There are ways to challenge golfers besides long rough and narrow fairways. Trinity Forest is going to make us use our brains a little bit. Sometimes here at Trinity, the pin is not necessarily the target.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 AT&T Byron Nelson winners:

• 2017 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2016 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2015 – Steven Bowditch: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Sang-moon Bae: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2012 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 8th.
• 2010 – Jason Day: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Billy Horschel: MC Sawgrass/ MC New Orleans/MC TPC San Antonio/MC Heritage.
• Sergio Garcia: 54th Sawgrass/3rd Valderrama/34th Augusta/MDF Houston.
• Steven Bowditch: DQ Colonial/47th Quail/MC Sawgrass/12th New Orleans.
• Brendon Todd: MC Quail/38th Heritage/43rd Houston/6th TPC San Antonio.
• Sang-moon Bae: 33rd Sawgrass/MC Ballantines/48th Heritage/WD TPC San Antonio.
• Jason Dufner: 68th Sawgrass/1st New Orleans/24th Heritage/24th Masters.
• Keegan Bradley: 72nd Sawgrass/MC Quail/26th New Orleans/MC Heritage.
• Jason Day: MC Players/22nd Quail/22nd Heritage/MC Houston.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Barnes / Hahn – Both AM -6/64 – 200/1 & 125/1.
• 2016 – Garcia / D Lee / Wagner – 1AM/2PM -7/63.
• 2015 – Bowditch – AM -8/62.
• 2014 – Hanson – PM -5/65.
• 2013 – Bradley – AM -10/60.
• 2012 – Palmer – PM -6/64.
• 2011 – Overton – PM -6/64.
• 2010 – Day / Mahan – AM/PM Split -4/66.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Bill Haas.
• 3 – Ernie Els, Brian Gay, Billy Horschel, Geoff Ogilvy, Jordan Spieth.
• 2 – Ben Crane, Matt Every, Sergio Garcia, Fabian Gomez, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Scott Piercy, Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Aaron Baddeley, Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Robert Garrigus, Branden Grace, Cody Gribble, James Hahn, Padraig Harrington, J.B. Holmes, Satoshi Kodaira, Martin Laird, Marc Leishman, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Grayson Murray, Carl Pettersson, Rory Sabbatini, John Senden, Robert Streb, Steve Stricker, Hudson Swafford, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Johnson Wagner.

The Byron Nelson is always a difficult tournament to call and a move to a new course which has been described as “unique” adds another level of intrigue to this betting heat. As a tournament, we’ve seen a whole list of unexpected winners. Indeed Jason Day (this was 2010), Keegan Bradley, Sang-moon Bae, Brendon Todd, Steven Bowditch and Billy Horschel have won 6 of the past 8 renewals at triple-digits. Bowditch topped the lot price-wise delivering a 500/1 coup for the bookmakers 3 years ago. But in Jason Dufner (22/1 in 2012) and Sergio Garcia (25/1 in 2016), 2 short-priced players in the betting market ultimately prevailed.

Another angle is that recent winners Todd, Bae, Bradley and Day had never won on the PGA Tour. Jason Dufner in 2012 had only captured his previous victory 2 appearances prior at TPC Louisiana. Last year saw Billy Horschel arrive with form of MC-MC-MC-MC to then go onto capture his 4th PGA Tour victory. The Floridian had not won a tournament since the 2014 Tour Championship ending a 2 and a half year hiatus. It’s certainly a mixed picture, but with Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman, Matt Kuchar and Billy Horschel all in this week’s field, there’s sure to be a little value further down the field.

From a course perspective, naturally we don’t really know what we are getting this week. However this treeless, links-style test has a definite coastal feel and looks relatively intimidating with strong bunkering, plenty of native areas, plus undulating green surfaces. However with runway-wide fairways and no actual rough, the level of penalty from the tee looks minimal. Instead Coore and Crenshaw have set the whole course up for the main defence to be the famous Texas wind, which this week looks relatively calm. Green complexes are severely contoured so greens always need to be receptive (10.5 ft on the Stimpmeter), so I think that Trinity Forest will be scoreable. A glimpse of that can be seen from the very first tournament played here last year – the Texas State Open. On a shorter Par 70 7,135 yard set-up it was won by Brax McCarthy at -18/262.

My selections are as follows: