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Course Guide: The AT&T Byron Nelson returns to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas for its second visit. A relatively new course to the PGA Tour, Craig Ranch has hosted U.S. Open Sectional Qualifiers in 2019 and various PGA Tour and Korn Ferry 2nd Stage Qualifying Schools, which are all worth a look. It’s also hosted a couple of Korn Ferry Tour Championship tournaments across 2008 and 2012 before debuting for this event 12 months ago. Set in a rolling valley, the course features tree-lined fairways and plenty of water in play. At 7,468 yards and a Par 72, the course allowed for a real birdiefest here last year, so expect the same in 2022.
TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Dallas, Texas: Designer: Tom Weiskopf, 2004; Course Type: Parkland, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,468 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 13; Fairways: Cavalier Zoysiagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 6,778 sq.ft. average Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft. Course Scoring Average 2021: 69.57 (-2.43), Difficulty Rank 47 of 51 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
- North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-2021 Farmers Insurance Open
- TPC Scottsdale – Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course Overview: The AT&T Byron Nelson moved to a new home last year. Part of the PGA Tour’s own TPC Network, Craig Ranch proved to be a breeze for the very best players in the world. Located in McKinney on the north-east fringes of Dallas, Texas, it plays as a 7,468 yard, Par 72 set-up, with the standard split of 4 par-3s and 4-par-5s.
The course itself is a Tom Weiskopf design with gently rolling hills and mature woods surrounding the limestone banks of Rowlett Creek. Ex-PGA Tour player D.A. Weibring also served as a consultant on the golf course design. Water in various guises is apparent throughout the course with Rowlett Creek crossing the course 14 times. The course itself is far more conventional than the quirky faux-links at Trinity Forest, which hosted the Byron Nelson across both 2018 and 2019, and a strong entry list in 2022 has undoubtedly been attracted the week before the PGA Championship.
The front 9 at Craig Ranch is where some serious birdies can be made. The 1st, 3rd and 6th holes are all par-4s at 430 yards or less. Throw in 570 yard (5th) and 564 yard (8th) par-5s and there are birdies to be made on these Bentgrass greens. The back 9 sees a driveable par-4 at the 14th, a short 147 yard par-3 at the 17th, and a couple of easy par-5s at 547 yards (12th) and 552 yards (18th). The other holes though are made of sterner stuff, but it’s all relative! TPC Craig Ranch played as the 5th easiest course on the PGA Tour last season – and that was with 20 mph gusting winds across Saturday and Sunday.
TPC Craig Ranch does share one familiarity with previous host venue Trinity Forest in that the course has been planted from tee to green with Zoysiagrass, which we see on occasions in the southern states of the United States. Zoysiagrass also features at TPC Southwind (WGC-St Jude Invitational & FedEx St Jude Classic) and East Lake (Tour Championship) and isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers. These fairways also featured at the 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and at Bellerive Country Club which hosted the 2018 PGA Championship.
Winners: Hosted at Craig Ranch: 2021: K.H. Lee (-25); Hosted at Trinity Forest: 2019: Sung Kang (-23); 2018: Aaron Wise (-23); Hosted at AT&T Four Seasons: 2017: Billy Horschel; 2016: Sergio Garcia; 2015: Steven Bowditch; 2014: Brendon Todd; 2013: Sang-moon Bae; 2012: Jason Dufner; 2011: Keegan Bradley; 2010: Jason Day.
TPC Craig Ranch Cut Line: 2021: -6.
TPC Craig Ranch Lead Score Progression:
- 2021: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -17; Round 3 -20; Round 4 -25.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Justin Thomas, Adam Hadwin, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Will Zalatoris, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele and Marc Leishman.
AT&T Byron Nelson Winners & Prices: 2021: K.H. Lee 200/1; 2019: Kang 125/1; 2018: Wise 50/1; 2017: Horschel 125/1; 2016: Garcia 25/1; 2015: Bowditch 500/1; 2014: Todd 100/1; 2013: Bae 150/1; 2012: Dufner 22/1; 2011: Bradley 200/1; 2010: Day 100/1. Past 7 Renewals Average: 161/1 Overall Average: 145/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2021: Thursday: Due to wet course conditions, preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect for round one. Partly cloudy. High of 73. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SE 7-14 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High of 81. Wind S 10-16 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Heavy rain showers. High of 77. SSE wind 10-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph. Due to heavy rain and lightning, the final round was suspended for 2 hours, 23 minutes.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Dallas, Texas, is here.
298mm of rain has fallen on McKinney since the start of March, with 72mm last week. So the course should be lush and pretty much where the ground crew want it, especially with no rain in the forecast for tournament week. Adding to the mix is a distinct lack of Texas wind this week, allied to temperatures pushing 32 degrees Celsius. With watered greens guaranteed and little wind, expect another pure birdiefest in 2022.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valspar Championship / Steyn City Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Cameron Champ; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Mito Pereira / Will Zalatoris; 5) Maverick McNealy / Jordan Spieth; 7) J.J. Spaun; 8) Brooks Koepka; 9) Brian Harman; 10) Brandon Wu; 11) Joaquin Niemann; 12) Xander Schauffele; 13) Sebastian Munoz; 14) Adam Hadwin / Charles Howell III / Jason Kokrak / Aaron Wise; 18) Luke List; 19) Dustin Johnson; 20) Joseph Bramlett / Tom Hoge; 22) Brandt Snedeker; 23) Ryan Palmer / Charl Schwartzel; 25) Ryan Armour / Seamus Power / Davis Riley / Austin Smotherman.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Adam Hadwin; 4) Marc Leishman; 5) Hudson Swafford; 6) Jhonattan Vegas; 7) Sam Burns / C.T. Pan / Austin Smotherman / Henrik Stenson; 11) Brooks Koepka; 12) Paul Barjon / Kurt Kitayama / Joaquin Niemann; 15) Jordan Spieth; 16) Maverick McNealy / Xander Schauffele / J.J. Spaun; 19) Talor Gooch; 20) Mito Pereira; 21) Dustin Johnson / Brandon Wu; 23) Kevin Kisner / Keith Mitchell; 25) Matthew NeSmith / Brian Stuard / Brendon Todd.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Rory Sabbatini; 3) Jordan Spieth; 4) Will Zalatoris; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Adam Hadwin; 7) Pat Perez; 8) David Skinns; 9) Danny Willett; 10) Ryan Armour / Tommy Fleetwood / Sepp Straka; 13) Seung-yul Noh; 14) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Dustin Johnson; 16) Charles Howell III / Si Woo Kim; 18) Henrik Stenson / Bubba Watson; 20) Jason Kokrak; 21) Michael Gligic; 22) Kevin Kisner / Aaron Rai; 24) Talor Gooch; 25) Davis Riley / Peter Malnati.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Adam Hadwin; 3) Brooks Koepka / Justin Thomas; 5) Jordan Spieth; 6) Henrik Stenson; 7) Will Zalatoris; 8) Mito Pereira; 9) Maverick McNealy; 10) Jhonattan Vegas / Aaron Wise; 12) J.J. Spaun; 13) Sam Burns / Dustin Johnson / Joaquin Niemann / C.T. Pan; 17) Si Woo Kim; 18) Sepp Straka; 19) Aaron Rai / Bubba Watson; 21) Cameron Champ / Tommy Fleetwood / Xander Schauffele; 24) Matthew NeSmith / Danny Willett.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Talor Gooch / Will Zalatoris; 3) Alex Noren; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Rory Sabbatini; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Scottie Scheffler; 8) Brian Harman; 9) Matthew Wolff; 10) Justin Thomas / Richy Werenski; 12) Callum Tarren; 13) Sebastian Munoz; 14) Joaquin Niemann; 15) Seamus Power / Martin Trainer; 17) Brandon Hagy / Matt Kuchar; 19) Beau Hossler; 20) Brandon Wu; 21) Keith Mitchell; 22) Mackenzie Hughes / Ben Kohles / Justin Lower / Sepp Straka.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Adam Hadwin; 3) Will Zalatoris; 4) Justin Thomas; 5) Jhonattan Vegas; 6) Maverick McNealy; 7) Tommy Fleetwood / Mito Pereira; 9) Sam Burns / Sepp Straka; 11) Brooks Koepka / Matt Kuchar; 13) Alex Noren; 14) Si Woo Kim; 15) Talor Gooch / Sebastian Munoz; 17) Xander Schauffele; 18) Cameron Champ / Brian Harman; 20) Joaquin Niemann; 21) Aaron Rai / J.J. Spaun / Aaron Wise; 24) Dustin Johnson / Danny Willett.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here at TPC Craig Ranch gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:
- 2021, K.H. Lee (-25). 292 yards (35th), 66.1% fairways (41st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 34’3″ proximity to hole (4th), 78.6 % scrambling (18th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2021, K.H. Lee (-25). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 9th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Craig Ranch sets-up and what skill sets the course favours:
Charl Schwartzel (2021): “Yeah, I did think about it halfway through the back nine. I was like; I haven’t had a round without a bogey for quite sometime. I’ve been playing well. You know, this golf course is really there for the taking, so if there was ever one to do it on, it would be this one. Yeah, especially after last week, Quail Hollow is such a tough golf course and you have to be very strategic. I found myself through the first 12 holes being too conservative, and I turned to my caddie and said, Course is soft. I don’t think we can keep hitting away from the flags. It’s a mental shift. I tried to be a bit more aggressive.
This course driving is quite easy, so it’s all second shots, trying to get them close enough. End of the day this tournament is going to come down to a putting contest, who putts the best.”
Sergio Garcia (2021): “For my eagle on 6. Yes, we hit driver and thought we couldn’t reach because it was into the wind, but we knew if we hit it in the fairway we’re going to be around that 50 yard range, and a little bit into the breeze even with a front pin I could nip it nicely out of the Zoysiagrass and spin it. Caught it perfectly. As soon as hit it I knew it was going to be close. Didn’t know if it was going to go in or not, but knew it was going to be close. It was nice to hear the crowd go a little bit crazy there, because we couldn’t see it go in.”
Matt Kuchar (2021): “Warming up on the range this morning it was blowing hard. I was nervous going out there. I saw some pretty good scores up on the leaderboard thinking, boy, I don’t see how the guys are putting them up. I know the course is receptive, but with 15 to 20 mile an hour winds it’s a lot more challenging. Thankfully I was able to get a few birdies early on and kind of get off to a really good start. Think I was 4-under through 6, and made me feel like, All right, it is gettable. Let’s see if we can keep going, and was able to get in with 6-under par today.
Yeah, you never know when the birdies are going to come. You take them when they come, and I was grateful to get them early. Couple scoring holes, I think the third hole is a scoring hole, was able to take advantage there. Then the 5th hole is a par-5, so those two are good. The 6th hole is also almost a drivable hole. So kind of took advantage of those three really easy holes and threw another birdie in as well.”
Patton Kizzire (2021):”I would say my approach, my iron game is one of my strengths, and that’s huge when you match that with my putting. My putting is the best part of my game by far, so when I start hitting the iron shots close I can go low, and I did today.Yeah, I’ll take a lot of confidence. Yeah, so on 15 tee the storm came in, and, gosh, it seemed like it sped everything up. You got the umbrella, you got the wind, rain, yardage, you got so many different factors going and it throws your routine off.
15, 16, 17, and 18, played very difficult, and I would’ve liked to played them under par. The birdie on 17 helped me get it back to even on those four holes, and certainly would’ve liked to birdie 18. But I’m going to hang around and see what happens, and very pleased with 9-under. Most of my wins have come on courses with low scoring, so I enjoy this type of golf. I like to try to go low. I like a lot of birdies and I’ll be back next year. ”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson since 2010:
- 2021 – K.H. Lee: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2019 – Sung Kang: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2018 – Aaron Wise: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2016 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2015 – Steven Bowditch: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2014 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2013 – Sang-moon Bae: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2012 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2011 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 8th.
- 2010 – Jason Day: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of the TPC Craig Ranch winners since 2021:
- 2021 – K.H. Lee: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 back.
Form of AT&T Byron Nelson winners since 2010:
- K.H. Lee: 58th Quail/29th Copperhead/23rd New Orleans/56th Heritage.
- Sung Kang: MC Quail/MC New Orleans/42nd San Antonio/18th Copperhead.
- Aaron Wise: 2nd Quail/MC New Orleans/MC TPC San Antonio/32nd Houston.
- Billy Horschel: MC Sawgrass/MC New Orleans/MC TPC San Antonio/MC Heritage.
- Sergio Garcia: 54th Sawgrass/3rd Valderrama/34th Augusta/MDF Houston.
- Steven Bowditch: DQ Colonial/47th Quail/MC Sawgrass/12th New Orleans.
- Brendon Todd: MC Quail/38th Heritage/43rd Houston/6th TPC San Antonio.
- Sang-moon Bae: 33rd Sawgrass/MC Ballantines/48th Heritage/WD TPC San Antonio.
- Jason Dufner: 68th Sawgrass/1st New Orleans/24th Heritage/24th Masters.
- Keegan Bradley: 72nd Sawgrass/MC Quail/26th New Orleans/MC Heritage.
- Jason Day: MC Players/22nd Quail/22nd Heritage/MC Houston.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2021 – Spaun / Spieth – AM/PM Split -9/63 – 175/1 & 20/1.
- 2019 – McCarthy – AM -8/63 – 100/1.
- 2018 – Leishman – PM -10/61 – 35/1.
- 2017 – Barnes / Hahn – Both AM -6/64 – 200/1 & 125/1.
- 2016 – Garcia / D Lee / Wagner – 1AM/2PM -7/63.
- 2015 – Bowditch – AM -8/62.
- 2014 – Hanson – PM -5/65.
- 2013 – Bradley – AM -10/60.
- 2012 – Palmer – PM -6/64.
- 2011 – Overton – PM -6/64.
- 2010 – Day / Mahan – AM/PM Split -4/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 6 – Dustin Johnson.
- 5 – Jordan Spieth.
- 4 – Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson.
- 3 – Brooks Koepka, Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Adam Scott.
- 2 – Jason Dufner, Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak, Martin Laird, Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele, Jhonattan Vegas.
- 1 – Jonas Blixt, Cameron Champ, Luke Donald, Dylan Frittelli, Bill Haas, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Kisner, K.H. Lee, Joaquin Niemann, Ian Poulter, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Rory Sabbatini, Scottie Scheffler, Charl Schwartzel, Brandt Snedeker, Scott Stallings, Henrik Stenson, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney, Danny Willett, Matthew Wolff.
The Byron Nelson is always a difficult tournament to call, and a move last year to yet another new course adds another level of intrigue to this betting heat. As a tournament, we’ve seen a whole list of unexpected winners – indeed Jason Day (this was 2010), Keegan Bradley, Sang-moon Bae, Brendon Todd, Steven Bowditch, Billy Horschel, Sung Kang and K.H. Lee have won 8 of the past 11 renewals at triple-digits. Bowditch topped the lot price-wise, delivering a 500/1 coup for the bookmakers 7 years ago. K.H. Lee 12 months ago was a 200/1 chance.
On the reverse side, Jason Dufner (22/1 in 2012) and Sergio Garcia (25/1 in 2016), have been the only short-priced players in the betting market who ultimately prevailed since 2010. And 2018 saw the prestigiously talented Aaron Wise overhaul long term leader Marc Leishman and capture his first PGA Tour title at 50/1.
Another angle is that recent winners K.H. Lee, Kang, Wise, Todd, Bae, Bradley and Day had never won on the PGA Tour. Jason Dufner in 2012 had only captured his previous victory 2 appearances prior at TPC Louisiana. 2017 saw Billy Horschel arrive with form of MC-MC-MC-MC to then go onto capture his 4th PGA Tour victory. The Floridian had not won a tournament since the 2014 Tour Championship, ending a 2 and a half year hiatus. It’s certainly a mixed picture. Sergio Garcia in 2016 had not won on the PGA Tour for 2 and 3/4 years.
From a timing perspective, we now have both 2019 and 2021 renewals to work from in terms of this tournament the week prior to the PGA Championship in May.
For 2019 it’s worth pointing out that it was a far weaker field than this week’s as its headline players featured only Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed. Winner Sung Kang was a 125/1 shot. He ranked 138th in the Official World Golf Rankings and had no entry for the PGA Championship. Scott Piercy finished T2 with Matt Every. Piercy at 50/1 had finished 3rd on his previous outing at Harbour Town, whilst Matt Every had finished 3rd in the team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans 2 starts prior. 15/2 tournament favourite Brooks Koepka finished 4th and went on to win the PGA Championship a week later in New York.
For 2021 the tournament contained Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama and Marc Leishman. Winner K.H. Lee was a 200/1 shot. He ranked 137th in the Official World Golf Rankings and had no entry for the PGA Championship. Sam Burns finished runner-up at 33/1 and had won his maiden PGA Tour title on his last outing at Copperhead. Of the short prices, Daniel Berger was the best finisher after he back-doored a T3, with a closing -8/64 catapulting him from 18th spot. He went on to finish 75th at the PGA Championship a week later. 12/1 shot Jordan Spieth led after 18 holes and was still T3 going into Sunday, where he went backwards finishing T9. 22/1 chance Brooks Koepka missed the cut at the Byron and then finished 2nd at Kiawah Island a week later.
AT&T Byron Nelson – Featured Bookmaker:
