Congratulations if you were on-board Russell Henley at a Monday best-price of 55/1 (bet365) at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba last week. It was Russell’s first win on the PGA Tour for five and a half years and boosted him into the World’s top 50 players, guaranteeing starts at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and more importantly The Masters. This has been a great narrative this autumn.
This week we have the freshly-sponsored Cadence Bank Houston Open. 2 years ago this event was the curtain-raiser for The Masters in November and was played for the first time at Memorial Park Golf Course. Tournament organisers the Astros Foundation, led by Astros owner Jim Crane, work hard to generate a quality field and 2022 sees Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Sepp Straka in the field.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Cadence Bank Houston Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: The Houston Open from 2003 through 2019 was played at Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone GC), on a Par 72 course which featured many Florida set-up traits. Winners there included Fred Couples, Vijay Singh (x2), Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson, J.B. Holmes, Russell Henley and Ian Poulter, traditionally the week before The Masters. 2020 saw a move to Memorial Park Golf Course, which had received a $19 million renovation, funded by Astros owner Jim Crane via the tournament-organising Astros Foundation. The course crafted by Tom Doak is not your standard PGA Tour affair, proving difficult to tame.
Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas: Designer: John Bredemus 1935, with Tom Doak renovation 2019; Course Type: Techincal, Long; Par: 70 ; Length: 7,412 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring MiniVerde Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimpmeter 12-12.5ft. Course Scoring Average 2020: 71.03 (+1.03), Difficulty Rank 8 of 51 courses. 2021: 70.80 (+0.80), Difficulty Rank 9 of 50 courses.
Course Overview: First thing to point out is that Memorial Park Golf Course is a municipal golf course, which caters for 60,000 rounds per year. Previously a John Bredemus 1935 design, Tom Doak was brought in by tournament sponsor Jim Crane to completely renovate Memorial Park, so that it can host both the Houston Open each year and then cater for the amateur player for the other 51 weeks of the year. Doak, with some help from player consultant Brooks Koepka, delivered a +7,400 yard design in just 10 months.
The routing of the course in general is the same as the old course, but Doak has added far more movement in both the fairways and especially around the greens. And his brief was to make Memorial Park an exciting venue for both PGA Tour and leisure golfers alike.
At 7,412 yards for a Par 70, the course is long and stretching in length. It’s a pretty quirky set-up, as the course features 5 par-3s and 3 par-5s in total. 2 par-5s are on the front 9, with a driveable par-4 (the 13th) on the back side, with a further par-5.
Off the tee, Doak designs tend to feature very generous fairways and although these are tree-lined, those trees tend to be well back. Rough is pretty penal, although that wasn’t the main defence of this course.
As part of Tom Doak’s brief, the course only features 19 bunkers, on the basis that they are easy for Tour pros but difficult for amateurs. Instead there are lots of tight grass slopes, contours and green complex surround slopes which repel approach shots, then requiring a tight lie to an elevated green recovery shot.
The tough, contoured green complexes and associated run-offs and the sheer length of the Par 70 set-up has created relative mayhem here in both 2020 and 2021, with Memorial Park playing within the 6 toughest non-Major courses.
And finally the green surfaces themselves, which at an average 7.000 sq.ft are large and feature MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass green complexes. Other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake (Tour Championship), plus the old Houston Open host course at the GC of Houston, also featured them – although they were Bentgrass overseeded in April-guise.
Houston Winners: Hosted at Memorial Park: 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10); 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13); Hosted at Golf Club of Houston: 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14); 2018: Ian Poulter (-19); 2017: Russell Henley (-20); 2016: Jim Herman (-15); 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16); 2014: Matt Jones (-15); 2013: D.A. Points (-16); 2012: Hunter Mahan (-16); 2011: Phil Mickelson (-20); 2010: Anthony Kim (-12).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are:- Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Aaron Wise, Andrew Putnam, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Jason Day and Justin Rose.
Autumn Schedule Houston Winners & Prices: 2021: Kokrak 50/1; 2020: Ortiz 160/1; 2019: Griffin 60/1. Overall Average: 90/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Due to inclement weather, the start to the first round was delayed 2 hours, 30 minutes and began at 9:10 a.m. CT. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 5:36 p.m. and resumed at 6:59 a.m. Friday. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Due to darkness, the second round was suspended for the day at 5:35 p.m. Saturday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind SSW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind ESE 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Houston, Texas, is here.
Texas golf is synonymous with windy conditions. This week in downtown Houston doesn’t look too bad, but with forecasts predicting 10-15 mph throughout the week, gusting to 20mph on Sunday, Memorial Park is likely to be a handful. October has been dry in this part of the world, and with precipitation unlikely if the forecast is correct, I’d expect firm enough turf conditions on the fairways, and we will have to wait for the greens – they have been releasing on our 2 previous visits. Temperatures will be pleasant at 24 to 27 degrees Celsius across Thursday and Friday, but drop significantly to 16 degrees Celsius across the weekend.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Fortinet Championship / Italian Open, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) Mackenzie Hughes; 3) Sam Burns; 4) Dean Burmester / Scottie Scheffler; 6) Maverick McNealy; 7) Andrew Putnam; 8) Will Gordon / Justin Lower / Matthew NeSmith / Danny Willett; 12) Greyson Sigg; 13) Hideki Matsuyama; 14) Joel Dahmen / Adam Hadwin / Davis Thompson; 17) Si Woo Kim; 18) Aaron Wise; 19) Denny McCarthy / Patrick Rodgers; 21) Alex Noren / Sahith Theegala; 23) Jason Day / Mark Hubbard / Lee Hodges.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the traditional stats of Memorial Park winners since 2020 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021, Jason Kokrak (-10). 302 yards (12th), 61.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 38’3″ proximity to hole (20th), 44.4 % scrambling (62nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). 312 yards (16th), 50.0% fairways (51st), 70.8% greens in regulation (8th), 36″11″ proximity to hole (19th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (36th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 14th, Driving Accuracy: 38th, Greens in Regulation: 6th, Proximity to Hole: 20th, Scrambling: 32nd, Putting Average 19th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2021, Jason Kokrak (-10). SG Off the Tee: 14th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 67th, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 3rd.
2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 5th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 35th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 4th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how Memorial Park sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Scottie Scheffler (2021): “I started hitting some fairways. Yesterday I was playing out of the rough most of the time, so it was just nice getting the ball out there in play, give myself some opportunities. This golf course can be pretty challenging from the Bermuda rough and you’ve got to hit the ball in play. If you’re hitting it in the rough to elevated greens that you can’t hold just because you’re hitting knucklers out of the rough, so it was very important to get the ball in the fairway.”
Jason Kokrak (2021): “Believe it or not, Colonial’s not a great golf course for me and this is kind of the quintessential golf course for me; long, got to hit a lot of fairways, got to hit the ball high to keep it in some spots on these greens. Outside of the really bad eight, nine holes that I played, I played this golf course pretty outstanding.
Matthew Wolff (2021): “Yeah, it definitely seems like a bomber’s golf course. There’s not too much trouble off the tee. I think 16 is really the only, it’s a par-5, but 16’s really the only hole that you can really have a penalty shot off the tee in my opinion. You can definitely get it into the trees and into the rough and that’s what makes this course hard and that’s its defence. But at the end of the day, I think it’s going to set up really well for me. I’ll be able to hit driver a lot, get to cover a couple things that some people might not be able to.”
Carlos Ortiz (2020): “I think the golf course, it’s really easy to get out of position and when you’re there, you have to think two steps ahead, try to put it where worst you’re going to have a good look for par instead of trying to push it, because once you push it with these greens. I don’t know if you guys have seen them, but they’re pretty undulated and they all fall off, so if you start pushing it, it’s easy to hit it or go over or to the side and you’re going to have a hard time putting it again on the green. I think I’ve taken my medicine especially today, and I honestly didn’t hit that many fairways and I still was able to save some good pars thinking that way.”
Jason Day (2020):”Yeah, definitely the back, I feel like the back side’s a little bit tougher. Obviously scoring opportunities, you get two par 5s on the front, a couple shorter holes on the front as well, but if you can try and get yourself at least 1, 2 or 3 under par going through the front side, you can kind of snag maybe one or two and you end up having a pretty decent round. This is very difficult around the greens with that bermudagrass, and the runoffs, they’re very, very inconsistent in regards to bouncing up the slopes. So if you can leave yourself in some decent locations around the greens, you can have a good opportunity at getting up and down pretty easy or you can leave yourself pretty frustrated at the end of the day.”
Brandt Snedeker (2020): “There’s quite a few of them really. You start putting your finger on a few of them. The par-3 15th is going to be really tough by the end of the week. We played it up today, but it’s just a diabolical green so you have to pay attention to that one. No. 13’s another diabolical green, depending on the pin position it can be really tough. Then you have the long holes here, 1’s a long, tough par 4. I think you can just go about every par 4 and they’re all about over 500 yards if they want to be. The Tour did a good job mixing it up today, moved some tees around so didn’t play the full length, which gave us some scoring opportunities. I don’t anticipate that being the case the rest of the week.”
Adam Scott (2020): “Yeah. I mean, just generally the course is relentless. It’s just demanding off the tee. It requires something long and straight, and then you must hit the green in the right spot, too, especially the 9th hole. Dustin’s ball was on the green for a good 10 seconds today and ended up in the water, so you have to be very precise on some of them. The challenge is all around the greens, the course is still kind of growing in and that’s making it very difficult from down in the low areas around the greens. You know, you just have to get a little bit creative this week and somehow get it up on the green and try and save your par.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Houston Open at Memorial Park since 2020:
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave (where applicable) and winning score since 2010. For full first round leader stats click here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Jason Day, Zach Johnson.
3 – Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim, Ryan Palmer, Scottie Scheffler.
2 – Jason Dufner, Harris English, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Scott Piercy, Justin Rose, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Ryan Armour, Cameron Champ, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, Martin Laird, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Keith Mitchell, Sebastian Munoz, C.T. Pan, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Nick Taylor, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland.
Points of note: other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake (Tour Championship). The old Houston Open host course, namely the GC of Houston (Redstone GC as was), also featured them – although they were overseeded in April guise. TPC Sawgrass home of the Players Championship featured MiniVerde Bermudagrass prior to 2017, as did Quail Hollow at the 2014 through 2016.
2020 saw Memorial Park play firm and fast for the opening 54 holes. A rarity on the PGA Tour! 2021 was slightly different with a storm in the early hours of Thursday depositing 25mm. However Memorial Park still put up a stern defence with greens that were fast on Saturday and extremely lively on Sunday, despite mud-balls on the fairways. Up to this point -13/267 and -10/270 totals have won, so this tournament has not been your standard birdiefest.
The second highest OWGR ranked player in this field at Number 12, this is the kind of course and field that Sam Burns has taken out in the past.
A 4-time winner on the PGA Tour from his past 37 starts, Burns looked excellent when we were on-board last time out at the CJ Cup. A slow opening round 70 was followed by 68-68-67 which saw the Louisiana State University graduate jump to 7th by the close. Indeed his weekend shot total of 135 was good enough for T4, bettered only by Tommy Fleetwood, K.H. Lee and victor Rory McIlroy. And on a Memorial Park course where Strokes Gained Putting has been vital over the opening 2 renewals here – see the Tournament Trends & Key Factors section above – Burns ranked 1st for Strokes Gained Putting on the Bermudagrass greens of Congaree.
That should hardly be a surprise for a player who is undoubtedly Bermudagrass green positive and who has always thrived on releasing greens and in the Southern States of the United States. His professional wins have come across Georgia (2018 on the Korn Ferry Tour), twice in Florida, Mississippi and here in Texas.
8th way back at the 2018 Honda Classic played at PGA National marked him out as a prospect and since promotion to the main Tour, Sam has a catalogue of notable performances on some of the toughest PGA Tour courses. 2021 saw Burns 3rd after 54 holes at Torrey Pines before finishing 18th. That was the precursor for his “breakout” PGA Tour performance at Riviera where he was the 18-, 36- and 54-hole leader, before eventually finishing just behind Max Homa and Tony Finau. Since then 2 wins (2021 & 2022) at the tough Copperhead Course, 2nd (2021) at the WGC St Jude Invitational played at TPC Southwind, 7th (2020) and 7th (2021) here at Memorial Park, 9th (2022) at Bay Hill and his 4th PGA Tour win, here in Texas at Colonial (2022), mark Burns out as the sort who can play tough, technical golf courses very well.
Strong on medium to long length golf courses, his last 6 appearances in the Lone Star have seen Burns finish 7th twice (both here), 2nd at TPC Craig Ranch and 1st at Colonial. RESULT: WD
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In a golf betting world where Mackenzie Hughes, Keegan Bradley, Jordan Smith and now Russell Henley have broken long winless streaks, Jason Day makes lots of sense this week.
Memorial Park is a tough, long, uncompromising golf course, where making par on plenty of holes is a not a bad score. Indeed only 6 of the 18 holes here played below par 12 months ago, so the former World Number 1 ticks plenty of boxes. A 12-time winner on the PGA Tour, Jason has the typical Australian golfer qualities of coming to the party on tougher courses, where weather or soil conditions or both are difficult.
A 2-time winner at Torrey Pines, his wins there came at -9/279 (2015) and -10/278 (2018) respectively. His win at the 2015 Barclays played at Plainfield was by 6 strokes when nobody else could shoot lower than -13/267. A winner at Bay Hill (2016) and TPC Sawgrass (2016), his last victory came at Quail Hollow in 2018 where a score of -12/272 beat Nick Watney and Aaron Wise by 2 shots. Long, tough, difficult golf courses – Jason Day thrives on them.
And his record in Texas is excellent. 8th (2008) at the GC of Houston; his first ever PGA Tour win the 2010 Byron Nelson was at TPC Las Colinas, which he backed-up with 5th (2011), 9th (2012) and 2nd (2017). 4th (2009) at Colonial, Jason also won the 2016 WGC World Matchplay when it was hosted at TPC San Antonio for the very first time. Day was also 7th here in 2020 where 67-68-67 saw him in 2nd place heading into Sunday. Adept on Bermudagrass greens – 4 of his PGA Tour wins have been on the surface – I think he will welcome the challenge of Memorial Park, and the fact that he is playing good golf.
After a disastrous start last week in Mexico where he was +3 through his opening 9 holes, rounds of 64-67-66 saw him finish T21. It was interesting to note that his 197 shot Friday-through-Sunday 54-hole total was first across the whole Mayakoba tournament. So for me Jason is playing far better than you might think. RESULT: T16
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Joel Dahmen 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with Betfred
Joel Dahmen is another I like the look of this week. Back into the top 100 in the OWGR again, Dahmen has always been the sort to a) string consecutive top finishes together, and b) play well enough on technical, tough difficult courses in stretching conditions.
9th (2019) at Torrey Pines; 5th (2020) at Riviera CC; 5th (2020) at Bay Hill; 12th at Harbour Town (2022); 2nd (2019) at Quail Hollow; 20th (2020) at Olympia Fields. Indeed Joel has a couple of top-10s in Majors earned at the 2020 PGA Championship and the 2022 U.S. Open. Plus he has also led or been in the top 5 across stretching tests at Copperhead (2019), Quail Hollow (2019), TPC Potomac (2022) and led this year’s U.S. Open played at the Country Club of Brookline heading into Sunday.
We can even take a feed from his sole PGA Tour victory, which came at the 2021 Corales Championship. That’s a long circa 7,700 yard, Par 72, which was played in extremely windy conditions that Joel won with a winning total of -12/276. That kind of score will have you very much in contention on the back nine this Sunday.
Lone Star State form is also steady enough to be a positive. 14th at the 2015 Greater Dallas Open (5th after 54 holes) on the Korn Ferry Tour. On the main Tour Dahmen has finished 9th (2017) at TPC Las Colinas; 16th (2018) at Trinity Forest; 20th (2018) and 19th (2020) at Colonial and 5th here last year at Memorial Park, where his 135-shot weekend total was good enough for T2, behind only winner Jason Kokrak.
14th for Strokes Gained Current Form over the past 8 weeks, Joel was 3rd last week at El Camaleon, where his weekend shot total of 131 strokes was only bettered by World Number 2 Scottie Scheffler. RESULT: T9
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World Number 27 Sepp Straka continues to get disrespected in the betting markets but an undoubted liking for Bermudagrass sees him in this week’s Houston Open squad. Across his last 4 outings on Bermudagrass he has finished 2nd at the St Jude Championship, 6th for 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship, and 2nd at the Sanderson Farms Championship when we were on-board at 45/1.
Fact is that Sepp is majorly Bermudagrass positive as we found out in Memphis, Atlanta and Jackson recently. You can add to that his win this year at the Honda Classic (PGA National), 3rd at Harbour Town and 9th at TPC Sawgrass this year; plus 4th and 5th here at the Houston Open played at the CC of Houston in 2019 and here at Memorial Park, when the tournament moved in 2020.
The sort who has always been sporadic with his performances, I’m happy to take the upwardly-mobile Straka in a weak field, on a course where he finished 4th, when ranked 164th in the OWGR just 2 years ago. RESULT: MC
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10GMT 7.11.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
