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Patton Kizzire, an 80/1 shot with Betfred pre-event, was a well-deserved winner of last week’s Sony Open after a gruelling 6-hole playoff with James Hahn. Kizzire is one of those players that punters like as 4 professional wins and 2 runner-up finishes in the last 30 months highlights a player who isn’t afraid to win and mix it with the big names. Kizzire, like Dustin Johnson the week before, was within the top 4 of my published predictor model – something that’s well worth looking at each week. An each way return for this column was delivered by 20/1 shot Brian Harman, who needs to start converting more contending performances into wins at the short prices now available on him.

Low scoring won’t abate this week as the PGA Tour reaches California for the CareerBuilder Challenge at PGA West. Formerly the Bob Hope Classic played over 4 courses and 5 days, this Pro-Am now takes in 3 resort courses over a traditional 4 day format. Low scoring yet again will be the order of the day and, with light winds forecast, we could well see something similar to Jason Dufner’s -25/263 being needed to grab the $1,044,000 first prize and a coveted Masters invite for those who haven’t received an invite through the post recently.

Course Guide: A 3-course rotation always makes the CareerBuilder Challenge a unique proposition on the PGA Tour. The PGA West facility hosts 3 of the 4 rounds at the TPC Stadium Course (Host Course) and Tournament courses. The TPC Stadium course hosts 36 holes including the final round. A 5 mile drive is required to the 3rd course in the tournament rotation, namely La Quinta Country Club. This tournament is the ultimate resort course challenge with 3 short Par 72 courses featuring extremely receptive and pure TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis green complexes.

TPC Stadium, PGA West, Palm Springs, California: Designer: Pete Dye, 1986; Course Type: Desert, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,113 yards; Fairways Bermudagrass with Ryegrass; Rough: Bermudagrass with Ryegrass, 2″; Greens: TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis; Stimpmeter: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 70.82 (-1.18), Difficulty Rank 41 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.59 (-0.41), Difficulty Rank 30 of 50 courses.

Tournament Course, PGA West: Designer: Jack Nicklaus, 1987; Par: 72; Length: 7,159 yards; Greens: TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 68.94 (-3.06), Difficulty Rank 49 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.74 (-1.26) Difficulty Rank 39 of 50 courses.

La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta: Designer: Lawrence Hughes, with Pascuzzo re-design, 1999: Par 72; Length: 7,060 yards; Greens: 4,000 sq.ft Bermudagrass with Ryegrass and Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 11; Course Scoring Average 2012: 70.68 (-1.32), Difficulty Rank 41 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.49 (-2.51), Difficulty Rank 41 of 43 courses. 2017: 69.64 (-2.36), Difficulty Rank of 49 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Stadium (Host Course) and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29; 350:27.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:32; 300:33; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 54 yards wide; 275:58; 300:62; 325:57; 350:61.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 39 yards wide; 275:38; 300:33; 325:29; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:26; 325:25; 350:24.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:28; 325:28; 350:24.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:25; 300:24; 325:23; 350:22.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus designs include:

Pete Dye

• Whistling Straits (2010 and 2015 PGA Championship)
• Ocean Course – Kiawah Island (2012 PGA Championship)
• TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
• TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
• Harbour Town – RBC Heritage
• Crooked Stick (2012 and 2016 BMW Championship).

Jack Nicklaus

• Valhalla Golf Club (2014 PGA Championship)
• Glen Abbey (2008, 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2016 RBC Canadian Open)
• Montreaux GCC – Barracuda Championship
• PGA National, Champions Course – Honda Classic
• Muirfield Village Golf Club – The Memorial
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – (World Challenge through 2013)
• Annandale Golf Club – (Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013)
• PGA West – Nicklaus Private (Humana Challenge through 2015)

Course Overview: The CareerBuilder Challenge since 2012 has played a 3-course rota over 72 holes. 2016 saw the TPC Stadium Course added to the rota as the host course (36 holes including the final round) and the Tournament Course was also added for the very first time. TPC Stadium hosted a round of the Bob Hope Classic back in 1987 and has been home to the PGA Tour Q-School numerous times including 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2012. The Nicklaus-designed Tournament Course shared hosting duties across these Q-Schools as well. Q-School qualifiers (and their Q-School finishing positions) in this week’s field can be seen below:

• 2002: 2nd Cejka, 17th Wilson.
• 2006: 2nd Garrigus, 7th Wheatcroft, 13th Armour, 16th Stroud, 22nd Cejka, 29th Reifers, Wilson.
• 2008: 2nd Fathauer, 4th Stroud, 6th Garrigus, 7th Simpson, 11th Dufner, Walker.
• 2011: 5th V Taylor, 8th Estes, Harmon, 11th Bae, Kisner, 13th Beljan, English, 27th Huh, Knost.
• 2012: 10th Gomez, 14th Jones, 22nd Reavie, Reed.

The host (36 holes) TPC Stadium course is a Pete Dye design and is viewed by many as the sequel to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The course features its own island 17th hole which will play as a 165 yard par-3 this week. As per last year, TPC Stadium will play as a 7,113 yard, Par 72 and has plenty of water in play. With a scoring average of 71.59 in 2017 it had a difficulty rank of 30 of 50 courses on the PGA Tour last season, in comparison to 39th for the Tournament Course and 49th for La Quinta.

Statistically TPC Stadium is an interesting course where power is seemingly negated a little. The par-5s played very tough – 6th hardest on Tour for Birdie or Better Conversion – 12 months ago, especially compared to both the par-3s and par-4s which still yielded plenty of birdies, despite relatively difficult weather conditions. That comes across in the Going for the Green statistics where TPC Stadium ranked in the lowest 10 courses on Tour where players were aggressive. Those that went for the green saw little success – Hit Green %: 4th lowest – Birdie or Better: 8th lowest. Brute power alone doesn’t work here – instead crisp wedge play from within 125 yards was critical. Scrambling on the course is easy for these PGA Tour pros and the TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens are pure enough that One-Putt Percentages have been the best and 6th best on the PGA Tour over the course of its opening 2 appearances in the CareerBuilder.

With warm and calm conditions forecast, both the Tournament Course (look for Nicklaus course experts) and La Quinta Country Club were taken apart in similarly favourable weather back in 2016. Both ranked in the 3 easiest courses across the whole of the PGA Tour, only beaten by the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

The CareerBuilder Challenge follows a pro-am format similar to the AT&T Pebble Beach but with the pro-am being played across the first 3 days of competition as opposed to all 72 holes. A cut is then made for the final round at the TPC Stadium Course venue on Sunday. If more than 78 golfers survive the scheduled cut then only the top 60 players and ties will play. A 156 player field allied to the pro-am nature makes for painfully slow play which some players can’t handle.

This tournament is a testament to US resort-style golf – go low or go home, it’s that simple. Since 2012 when the tournament moved to a conventional 72-hole format, -24/264, -25/263, -29/259, -22/266, -25/263 and -20/268 have been the winning totals. Birdie or better conversion rates at 36% (2012), 38% (2013), an astonishing 44% (2014 by Patrick Reed), 32% (2015), 42% and 36% (Swafford 12 months ago) to this point are traditionally some of the highest we see all year.

Winners: 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20); 2016: Jason Dufner (-25); 2015: Bill Haas (-22); 2014: Patrick Reed (-29); 2013: Brian Gay (-25); 2012: Mark Wilson (-24)

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 5 of my published predictor are Brian Stuard, Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Peter Uihlein and Austin Cook.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Italian Open / CIMB Classic and includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ryan Armour / Brian Stuard; 3) Brian Harman; 4) Chez Reavie; 5) Colt Knost; 6) Austin Cook / David Hearn; 8) Kevin Kisner; 9) Lucas Glover / Brendan Steele; 11) Tyler Duncan; 12) Hunter Mahan / Steve Wheatcroft; 14) John Huh / Sean O’Hair; 16) Brice Garnett / Brian Gay; 18) Joel Dahmen; 19) Vaughn Taylor; 20) Alex Cejka / Kevin Streelman.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Brian Harman / Kevin Streelman; 3) Chez Reavie; 4) Brendan Steele; 5) Brian Stuard; 6) Ryan Armour; 7) Lucas Glover / Kevin Kisner; 9) Sang-moon Bae / Chesson Hadley / J.J. Spaun; 12) Patton Kizzire; 13) Austin Cook; 14) Peter Uihlein; 15) Scott Piercy; 16) Alex Cejka; 17) Kevin Chappell / Beau Hossler / Trey Mullinax / C.T. Pan.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Patrick Reed; 2) Wesley Bryan / Kevin Kisner; 4) Grayson Murray; 5) Chris Stroud; 6) Bud Cauley; 7) Peter Uihlein; 8) Zach Johnson / Brendan Steele; 10) Jason Dufner / Adam Hadwin / Brian Harman / Patton Kizzire; 14) Nick Taylor; 15) Ben Martin / Jon Rahm; 17) Bubba Watson; 18) Brian Gay; 19) Vaughn Taylor; 20) Chez Reavie / Ben Silverman.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Hudson Swafford 66/1; 2016: Dufner 40/1; 2015: Haas 30/1; 2014: Reed 135/1; 2013: Gay 80/1; 2012: Wilson 125/1; 2011: Vegas 200/1; 2010: Haas 100/1; Average: 97/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 67/1.

Historical Weather:

2017: Thursday: Overcast, with light morning rain. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, with a high of 64. Wind W 8-15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind NE to SSE 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 63. Wind NW 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind SSE 8-15 mph.

2016: Thursday: Clear skies with an afternoon high of 74 degrees. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 71 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with an afternoon high of 82 degrees. Wind NW 7-15 mph.

Weather Forecast:

The latest weather forecast for La Quinta, California is here: The weather here last year saw rain and strong breezes in play across the 4 days. Very non desert-like! This year will see typical, perfect scoring conditions, with only a strong breeze present on Friday afternoon. No rain is forecast, whilst temperatures start at 24 degrees Celsius on Thursday but drop to a more European 17 degrees across the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the winner and runner-up from 2016 & 2017 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this 3-course rota test:

• 2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). 307 yards (5th), 55.4% fairways (61st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (27th), 71.4 % scrambling (30th), 1.66 putts per GIR (24th).
• 2017, Adam Hadwin (-19). 290 yards (33rd), 69.6% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (46th), 27’0″ proximity to hole (8th), 82.6 % scrambling (4th), 1.59 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2016, Jason Dufner (-25). 290 yards (49th), 75.0% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (15th), 30’6″ proximity to hole (20th), 72.2 % scrambling (40th), 1.54 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2016, David Lingmerth (-25). 293 yards (41st), 73.2% fairways (9th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 21’6″ proximity to hole (1st), 80.0 % scrambling (11th), 1.54 putts per GIR (5th).

Tournament Skill Average:

• Driving Distance: 32nd, Driving Accuracy: 24th, Greens in Regulation: 16th, Proximity to Hole: 14th, Scrambling: 21st, Putting Average 10th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the CareerBuilder sets up with the new course rotation and what skill sets the course favours:

Hudson Swafford (TPC Stadium): “Absolutely, yeah, no, this is a tough golf course. When you come to the desert, all you think is birdies, usually the scores yield birdies. But this Stadium Course has kind of changed that. I know there is a lot of good rounds out here, but one errant shot, it’s very penalizing. So you got to be super patient on this golf course.“

Jason Dufner: “I came out before I went to Sony and played these golf courses, both of them, twice. Spent some time out here practicing and playing. So I felt good. We have had some great weather, obviously that helps. The courses are in great shape. So I’m pretty comfortable right now.

The Stadium Course, it’s a difficult golf course. There’s a little bit of room to play off the tee, in my opinion, but if you get off the path a little bit, you can get into some trouble. He’s got some water out there, he’s got some tricky bunkers, you get some uneven lies here and there. The greens kind are difficult. They run on some angles and there’s some slope. So it’s definitely the most difficult of the courses we have played here in the desert area. But today it just was one of those days, I got oy in the world, but I had a wedge in my hand. So just be aggressive. I know that, if I miss, it’s a soft fade to the right, so I can manage that.“

Kevin Na: “It’s quite a bit of a change. The Nicklaus, no. But the Stadium, yes. We get to play these courses every year and you get comfortable. You don’t even have to have play a practice round, you just want to go out and – we’re playing holes just to see how the course is playing, how it’s bouncing, the firmness or the wetness, whatever the rough might be. But it’s a big change. I think the Stadium’s going to play a lot more difficult than the Palmer Course, in my opinion. But the Nicklaus Course will be about the same.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 6 CareerBuilder winners since the tournament moved to a 72 hole format:

• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Bill Haas: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Patrick Reed: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Brian Gay: Round 1: 29th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2012 – Mark Wilson: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Incoming form of winners since 2012:

• Hudson Swafford: 13th Sony/36th RSM/46th OHL/23rd HSBC/29th CIMB.
• Jason Dufner: 9th Sony/1st Shark Shoot/9th RSM/40th OHL.
• Bill Haas: 48th Sheshan/22nd McGladrey/16th Tour/16th BMW.
• Patrick Reed: 16th ToC/40th CIMB/WD Shriners/MC Fry’s.com.
• Brian Gay: 32nd Sony/5th Disney/43rd McGladrey/29th Fry’s.com.
• Mark Wilson: MC Sony/18th ToC/56th HSBC/4th CIMB.

5 of the last 6 winners, namely Jason Dufner, Bill Haas (2015), Patrick Reed, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson, had all won PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass greens prior to capturing the title here in La Quinta. For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Bill Haas, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed.
• 3 – Brian Gay, Geoff Ogilvy, Camilo Villegas.
• 2 – Ben Crane, Jason Dufner, Matt Every, Fabian Gomez, Chris Kirk, Phil Mickelson, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Mark Wilson.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Charlie Beljan, Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Austin Cook, Harris English, Robert Garrigus, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Mac Hughes, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Peter Malnati, Grayson Murray, Sean O’Hair, Scott Piercy, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, Nick Taylor, D.J. Trahan, Jhonattan Vegas, Johnson Wagner, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson.

Recent champions here include Vegas (a Tour Rookie); Swafford, Perez, Hoffman (all 1st time PGA Tour winners); Trahan and Reed (1 Win at the time); Campbell (2 Wins); with Dufner, Gay (3 Wins) plus Wilson (4 wins). Bill Haas has won this title in both 2010 and 2015, being his 1st and 6th PGA Tour titles. Pick the bones from that! Back in 2006, Bermudagrass specialist Chad Campbell finished 2nd at Waialae and went on to win the Bob Hope Classic (as it was formerly titled) the following week. The renowned ball-striker putted sensationally well in Honolulu and took that form on the plane to California when he beat Parnevik and Verplank in a play-off.

Since Campbell’s victory, no player has won at PGA West coming off anything better than a 9th place finish – that being 2016 champion Jason Dufner. 4 years ago, Patrick Reed broke the trend of winners playing Waialae/PGA West which had lasted since 2007. Bill Haas went one better in 2015 when he won at PGA West for the second time on his seasonal debut. His previous appearance had been at Sheshan at the HSBC Champions in the autumn where, by his own admission, he played abysmally to finish 48th.

So what’s the right recipe for success this week? Well if previous renewals are anything to go by then all types of player can thrive here, both the long bomber and the accurate ball-striker. However the winner will need to hit a minimum of 75% of Greens in Regulation and that’s quite a challenge as the greens at the Stadium and La Quinta are substantially smaller in size than Waialae last week. It goes without saying that a warm putter is essential, but as well as making birdies it’s absolutely imperative to keep your scorecard clean. The perfect game looks to be a good ball-striker who’s feeling confident in his ability with the putter and to make plenty of birdies right now.

My selections are as follows: