Course Overview. Opened in 1994, the Jack Nicklaus-designed Heritage course at London GC is an exposed, parkland affair built at 500 feet of elevation which can make it susceptible to the wind.
Tall fescue grass lines the fairways and gives the course a little bit of a linksy feel to it in places; fairways are generous and greens large, however with 4 lakes to contend with and the threat of a lost ball in the longest of the grass for the seriously wayward, an element of control from off the tee would appear to be favourable.
At 7,327 yards for its par of 72, the course has been lengthened slightly since the European Tour last visited this layout, however it’s not massively long by modern standards and the USGA standard bentgrass-based greens will allow good shots to be rewarded.
Tournament Stats. With the 2008 & 2009 European Opens held here at the London Club, we have a starting point at least in terms of course form to combine with the regular current form stats: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
After a soggy weekend, the weather in southern England will clear up for this week’s event with high pressure dominating. Sunny spells, light winds and temperatures reaching the low 70s Fahrenheit will make this a pleasant event for players and spectators alike.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the two European Open events held here in 2008 and 2009 give us a starting point as to the type of player who might go well around these parts:
- 2009, Christian Cevaer (-7). 263.6 yards (67th), 50% fairways (44th), 68.1% greens in regulation (13th), 73.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (26th).
- 2008, Ross Fisher (-20). 302.1 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (23rd), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.67 putts per GIR (3rd).
The disparity in Driving Distance between Cevaer who was virtually rock-bottom of those who made the cut in 2009, and Ross Fisher who topped the charts the year before, tells us that there are different ways to approach this track. Gary Orr and Stephen Dodd also featured prominently for the short hitters in 2009, whereas Alvaro Quiros redressed the balance.
GIR numbers weren’t high in either of the renewals, however maximising chances to find the putting surfaces and scrambling well when missing seemed key, despite differing levels of difficulty from the two renewals.
Scoring Splits
- Christian Cevaer (-7): Par 3: -1; Par 4: +1; Par 5: -7; 15 Birdies, 7 Bogeys.
- Ross Fisher (-20) : Par 3: -1; Par 4: -7; Par 5: -12; 2 Eagles, 22 Birdies, 6 Bogeys.
Ross Fisher’s 20-under total in 2008 was fuelled by playing the par-5s in -12 across the 4 days, and in total the top 5 finishers were an aggregate -62 for the long holes. Despite being much tougher the following year, most of the scoring was still achieved on the par-5s and players need to be taking advantage of those holes if they have aspirations of winning the title, while keeping their card as clean as possible elsewhere on the course.
Incoming Form: Christian Cevaer would have proven to be a tough player to pick out in 2009 with no top-30 finishes in his recent past. Ross Fisher, on the other hand, was a little more logical with two top-12 finishes in his past 4 starts, despite finishing down the field the week before at Le Golf National:
- Christian Cevaer: 40/MC/MC/MC/MC/60/59/31/52/34/MC/MC
- Ross Fisher: 25/10/MC/34/56/42/24/68/10/MC/12/64
With just two events from a dozen or so years ago to study for this week and with only a fifth of the field having any competitive experience of the track, this week’s selections require a little bit of a leap of faith.
That said, I suspect the scoring this week with sunny skies, light winds and drying conditions underfoot will lead us more towards Fisher’s winning total than Cevaer’s. Fisher ran out a 7-stroke winner back in the day so 20-under may be a little misleading as he played exceptionally well despite a reasonable breeze at times, however I suspect that with favourable scoring conditions this week it shouldn’t be a relentless grind for the players.
Looking at the 2008 leaderboard in a little more depth, Sergio Garcia came 2nd to Fisher ahead of Graeme McDowell, David Frost and Soren Hansen. That list screams control over all-out aggression, GIR over scrambling and bogey avoidance over streaky birdie-making. That said, having the game to successfully take on the scoring holes with quality Total Driving could be the key to unlocking this puzzle.
My final selections are as follows:
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