No joy for us at Wentworth last week with our best hope Viktor Hovland not quite able to reach the dizzy heights of his previous two starts, finishing 5th overall in the end. Congratulations must go to GBS colleague Steve Bamford though who headlined with 20/1 Sahith Theegala over at the Fortinet Championship, with the talented American duly securing his maiden title in impressive fashion.
On to this week we go and back to the exacting test that is the Albatros Course at Le Golf National for the Open de France. Most of the Ryder Cup team who graced us with their presence in Surrey are taking the week off, with the exception of Robert MacIntyre who evidently likes to keep himself busy before a big event.
Tom Kim remains this side of the Atlantic for another week and heads the betting at a general 10/1 from the likes of Minwoo Lee (14/1), Aaron Rai (16/1) and last week’s winner Ryan Fox (16/1). Billy Horschel completes his European vacation this week, rating as a 22/1 shot.
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Albatros Course, Le Golf National, Paris, France. Designer: Hubert Chesneau, 1990; Par: 71; Length: 7,247 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Rough: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Greens: Bent/Meadow Grass, 12’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. Le Golf National is always set up strongly for this event and danger lurks on many holes if you miss fairways with water at the start and end of each round.
The 7,247 yard, par-71 stadium course was designed to test the very best golfers with a premium on accurate driving and, in particular, approaches to difficult, undulating greens. Missing greens isn’t a great option here as scrambling is tough, so attacking from the fairway has to be the only real strategy and finding the right parts of greens with any consistency is only really possible from the short stuff.
The last few renewals have seen a mix of dry conditions (2010, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2022) and wet (2011, 2012) and a combination of both (2014, 2016, 2017, 2019); wet or dry the rough here is amongst the very toughest on the DP World Tour, plus some of the holes are pretty brutal in terms of length – the 17th (480 yards) and 18th (471 yards) will play amongst the most difficult on the week.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2022: Guido Migliozzi, 80/1; 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts, 100/1; 2018: Alex Noren, 16/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 22/1; 2016: Thongchai Jaidee, 66/1; 2015: Bernd Wiesberger, 33/1; 2014: Graeme McDowell, 12/1; 2013: Graeme McDowell, 25/1; 2012: Marcel Siem, 70/1; 2011: Thomas Levet, 140/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 80/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the region is here.
Fairly mixed conditions are expected in Paris this week with sunshine and showers on Thursday and Friday giving way to a more settled weekend. Temperatures will edge towards 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoons with winds in the 10-15mph range, dropping off over Saturday and Sunday.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 11 winners at Le Golf National gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:
2022, Guido Migliozzi (-16). 50% fairways (44th), 73.6% greens in regulation (14th), 84.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts (-12). 57.1% fairways (33rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 55.0% scrambling (30th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)
2018, Alex Noren (-7). 75% fairways (2nd), 75% greens in regulation (5th), 55.6% scrambling (8th), 1.76 putts per GIR (37th)
2017, Tommy Fleetwood (-12). 76.8% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6% scrambling (9th), 1.84 putts per GIR (53rd)
2016, Thongchai Jaidee (-11). 62.5% fairways (22nd), 69.% greens in regulation (18th), 68.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (3rd)
2015, Bernd Wiesberger (-13). 55.4% fairways (45th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.80 putts per GIR (33rd)
2014, Graeme McDowell (-5). 62.5% fairways (17th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 56.5% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (4th).
2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 71.4% fairways (15th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 73.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (29th).
2012, Marcel Siem (-8). 73.2% fairways (2nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 63.2% scrambling (4th), 1.78 putts per GIR (32nd).
2011, Thomas Levet (-7). 67.9% fairways (38th), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.4% scrambling (8th), 1.77 putts per GIR (19th).
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11). 76.8% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 56.3% scrambling (38th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
Le Golf National is perennially described as a course where tee-to-green excellence prevails and I agree with that to an extent; however minimising bogeys with an excellent short game shouldn’t be underestimated here either.
For a player to contend here they’re going to have to find the vast majority of greens in regulation or minimise bogeys with an excellent week around the greens; the winner is ultimately likely to excel in one or both areas over the four days.
On the subject of scrambling, last year’s winner Guido Migliozzi led the field with 84.2% here 12 months ago, continuing a solid trend we’ve seen from winners and contenders here at Paris National.
Continuing the same theme, 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2019 ranked inside the top 17 for getting up and down. Alex Noren sat 8th on that count after 72 holes in 2018; Tommy Fleetwood ranked 9th the year before and runner-up Peter Uihlein led the field with an excellent 82.6%. Thongchai Jaidee ranked 2nd in the field for getting the ball up and down in 2016; players ranked 1st to 5th for scrambling finished inside the top 6 overall in 2015; 1st, 2nd and 6th for scrambling finished inside the final top 5 in 2014; likewise in 2013 players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th for scrambling finished inside the top 6; 2012 had players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th for scrambling finish inside the top 4 and 2011 had similar stats with 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th ranked players for scrambling finishing inside the top 7.
This all makes sense when you consider that the greens here are designed to be played firm and fast so they’ll be difficult to hold for all but the very best tee-to-green practitioners in anything but soft conditions.
Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, we only have the 2019 and 2022 events to go on, however those renewals do give us a few clues.
Eventual winners Guido Migliozzi and Nicolas Colsaerts both excelled from a SG Approach and SG Tee to Green perspective, with Migiozzi’s short game and putting offsetting Colsaerts’ off the tee performance.
The plot thickens a little though when the closest challengers are reviewed as Rasmus Hojgaard (2nd) and Thomas Pieters (tied 3rd) ranked 1st and 2nd for SG Putting on the week; similar 2019 runner-up JB Hansen ranked 2nd for SG Putting. As ever, there are different ways to get into contention here.
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Form-wise there’s a really mixed bag when looking at the winners in recent years. Guido Migliozzi’s solitary top 10 finish in 2022 had come in Holland back in May, and he’d missed 11 cuts in total in the year before finding a little more consistency in the weeks leading up to his victory here 12 months ago.
Nicolas Colsaerts is another case in point from 2019 with a solitary top-20 finish to his name in his previous 11 starts. That effort was on his penultimate start though at the Spanish Open where he closed with a round of 64, so there was a little bit of positivity to latch onto.
Alex Noren was clearly in good nick in 2018 having recorded 4 consecutive top-25 finishes, as was Tommy Fleetwood who’d finished 4th at the US Open and 6th at the BMW International Open immediately prior to his success here 5 years ago; Jaidee hadn’t recorded a single top-10 finish in 2016 prior to winning; Wiesberger had finished 27th in Germany the week before and 2nd in Ireland, however in between those results were 4 missed cuts; McDowell improved on his 6th place finish in Ireland on his previous start before defending his title 8 years ago and was in the middle of his win-or-bust run when he arrived here the year before with form of MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC; Marcel Siem was in decent nick with 4 top-10s to his name in 2012 prior to victory, whereas Tomas Levet hadn’t recorded a top 10 all season prior to his emotional (and for him painful) victory the year before.
Jimenez had missed 3 cuts in his last 5 attempts before his triumph here in 2010; Kaymer was coming into form in 2009 when he won, however he’d missed the cut the week before; Larrazabal was a shock outsider who came through qualifying in 2008; Storm had managed a couple of top 10s in his last 10 starts in 2007; Bickerton had missed 4 of 5 cuts in 2006 and Remesy’s successful defence in 2005 came off the back of a very poor season. All in all a very mixed bag.
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 52/12/17/17/MC/MC/8/MC/49
Course Form (back to 2010): It’s also interesting to note that 13 of the past 16 winners here had previously recorded a top-25 or better on this course prior to their success, so looking for players with a decent enough track record here has generally proven to be a positive strategy.
Tommy Fleetwood’s win in 2017 blew that logic apart though as he’d previously failed to make the weekend on all four attempts here before winning his second title of the season, and last year’s winner Guido Migliozzi had missed the cut on his only previous attempt, however generally that trend has held firm.
Since 2010, course form of the winners here is as follows:
2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 23/53/MC/54/MC/11/11/59/MC/22/55/MC
2011, Thomas Levet: MC/MC/MC/50/15/34/68/MC/58/30/69/MC
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: MC/23/23/8/55/MC/MC/66/25
With a little breeze in the forecast to start the event, Le Golf National will as ever demand strong ball-striking as well as a competent short game from players who have aspirations of taking the title on Sunday. Le Golf National is often described as having inland links characteristics and players with a liking for that style of golf often excel here.
My 2023 Open de France Tips Are As Follows:
Adrian Otaegui 2pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
I’ve been guilty of chasing some shorter prices of late with Matt Fitzpatrick ultimately grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory at Crans and Viktor Hovland just not quite being on his game last week at Wentworth. Both could have won of course, however recent experiences are enough to put me off the top two in the market who both have a very live chance.
The lack of course experience for Tom Kim and Minwoo Lee is ultimately enough to put me off – indeed we’ve not had a debut winner here since Pablo Larrazabal back in 2008 – and despite the strong cases you could build for both, I’ll leave them alone and start my team quite a bit further down the field with none of those immediately below the market leaders appealing either.
I’ve been backing Adrian Otaegui a fair amount this season, most recently when he finished 4th behind Dan Brown at Galgorm Castle, and his game fits the bill here once again in my view and I have to include him in my team this week.
2nd at the KLM Open on another course with a linksy feel about it and 7th to halfway at The Open before his aforementioned effort in Northern Ireland is all positive, and although he’s not hit the same heights since, a form line of 68/55/45/36 shows progression and this course suits his game like a glove statistically.
1st for Driving Accuracy for the season to date doesn’t lie at this late stage of the year and 4th for SG Approach, 8th for SG Tee to Green and 2nd for Scrambling are outstanding credentials for a test like Le Golf National. He’s also proven as recently as last October that he can handle a challenging test when winning his 4th DP World Tour title at the most stringent of setups at Valderrama by 6 strokes.
Form here on the Albatros course is solid after some tricky starts early in his career around these parts. 33rd in 2016 saw him open with 67 to sit 2nd after day 1; he followed that up with 7th the following year where he led going into the weekend. 12th in 2018 and 13th last year are other notable efforts and I think he could produce a big personal best here this week. RESULT: T16
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Julien Brun 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
At a slightly longer price, a player who I also like on more stringent tests such as this is Julien Brun and he’s shown enough signs lately to suggest that he can improve on his 13th place finish here last season when in overall worse form than he is right now.
The Frenchman, who now resides in Prague, is yet to break through at DP World Tour level having previously won three times on the Challenge Tour, however his home Open might just offer the motivation he needs to become the first local player to lift this trophy since Thomas Levet back in 2011.
The 31 year-old’s best finishes at the upper level have tended to come on mid-scoring tests and trickier assignments rather than birdie-fests, with 8th at the 2022 British Masters, 3rd at the Mauritius Open later that year, 5th at this year’s Dubai Desert Classic and 7th at the Magical Kenya Open the pick of the bunch. 25th at the Czech Masters, 16th at the Irish Open and 35th last week at Wentworth, where he flirted with the fringes of contention at times, is solid enough as he heads into this week’s test.
Last year’s effort contained an opening round of 66 which put him right in the mix after the first 18 holes, and although he couldn’t build on it by Sunday evening, it was nevertheless a big personal best around these parts and a strong foundation for growth this time around.
Statistically there’s lots to like about Brun: 12th for SG Approach for the season is positive given how the last 2 winners here succeeded, as is 21st for SG Around the Green and 16th for Scrambling. I’m expecting a big week here from the Frenchman. RESULT: T6
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Jorge Campillo 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
As the DP World Tour edges towards its climax with only 4 regular full-field events left after this week, so the different motivations and targets of individual players need to be considered.
Reaching the DP World Tour Championship is a motivation for many, whereas others are merely trying to retain their playing rights for 2023, however Jorge Campillo has his sights set on a bigger prize with the top 10 players in the final Race to Dubai standings, who are not otherwise exempt, gaining a PGA Tour card for 2024. At 12th in this list right now, the Spaniard has a lot to fight for.
The 37 year-old is already a winner in 2023, capturing the Magical Kenya Open by a couple of strokes back in March, and his 2 wins prior to that at the 2019 Trophee Hassan II and the 2020 Qatar Masters single him out as a player who’s better when the course is a little trickier, winning at 9- and 13-under respectively.
Form here at Le Golf National is solid enough with 3 top-18 finishes from 8 starts, and he arrives here off the back of 4 straight cuts made and some promising enough performances that just need that little bit extra to catapult him into serious contention. 40th at Crans was fuelled by a hot putter, whereas 28th last week at Wentworth saw a much more assured performance from tee to green – he also led the field for Driving Accuracy – but the putter was stone cold. Combine all aspects this week in a field significantly weaker than last and we could see him challenging for the title. RESULT: T41
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Finally, it’s interesting to hear that Richie Ramsay was a little bit lost with his game as recent as the start of September when he missed the cut at Crans, prompting some serious soul-searching with his coach Ian Rae.
Surprising in one respect given the form that’s seen him finish 7th at the Soudal Open, 5th at the Volvo Mixed, and 3rd at the Made In Himmerland, however as players and observers of this maddening game will attest, the difference between good and poor play, and therefore success and failure, is very much on a knife-edge.
It was positive then to see the Aberdeen man improve somewhat on his next start in Ireland, making the cut with a couple of positive rounds tucked in there, and he pushed on further last week at Wentworth with an opening round of 66 and an eventual finish of 28th that had the gloss taken off of it with two 6s in his final 4 holes.
Progress nonetheless and we know from recent experience that when things click for the 40 year-old then he’s more than competitive at this level, as was evidenced just last July when he secured his 4th win at this level, this time at Hillside at the Cazoo Classic.
At his best, Richie is a precise ball-striker who suits more stringent tests – 3 of his 4 wins coming at between 10- and 14-under is testament to that. 5th here in both 2011 and 2019 suggests that he gets on well with the course and at 52nd in the Race to Dubai he’ll be looking for a final push over these next few weeks to ensure that he’s involved in the lucrative season-ending tournaments. RESULT: T20
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