The CJ Cup Byron Nelson sees us return to Texas for the third time in 2025. We were in the LoneStarState previously for the Houston and Valero Opens, both of which were played in the immediate weeks before The Masters in April.
The Byron Nelson is a tournament bedecked in history and now sees CJ as the main sponsor. It features a field headlined by Scottie Scheffler, Andrew Novak (the third highest world ranked player in the field) Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Byeong Hun An and defending champion Taylor Pendrith.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,500 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: The CJ Cup sponsored Byron Nelson returns to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas for its fifth visit. A relatively new course to the PGA Tour, Craig Ranch has hosted U.S. Open Sectional Qualifiers in 2019 and various PGA Tour and Korn Ferry 2nd Stage Qualifying Schools, which are worth a look. It’s also hosted a couple of Korn Ferry Tour Championship tournaments across 2008 and 2012.
Set in a rolling valley, the course features tree-lined fairways and plenty of water in play around the course. At a lengthened 7,569 yard, Par 71, the course sets up for a real birdiefest so expect more of the same in 2025.
TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Dallas, Texas: Designer: Tom Weiskopf, 2004; Course Type: Parkland, Resort, Texas , Long Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,569 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 13; Number of Sand Bunkers: 83: Acres of Fairway: 24; Fairways: Cavalier Zoysiagrass overseeded with Ryegrass; Rough: Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 3.25″; Greens: 6,778 sq.ft average Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 68.50 (-2.50), Rank 45 of 51 courses (7th easiest)
2023: 68.91 (-2.09), Rank 44 of 49 courses (6th easiest)
2022: 69.22 (-2.78), Rank 47 of 50 courses (4th easiest)
2021: 57 (-2.43), Rank 47 of 51 courses (5th easiest)
TPC Craig Ranch Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Craig Ranch and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-Present Farmers Insurance Open
TPC Scottsdale – Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course Overview: The Byron Nelson moved to a new home in 2021. Part of the PGA Tour’s own TPC Network, Craig Ranch has proved to be a breeze for the very best players in the world. Located in McKinney on the north-east fringes of Dallas, it played as a 7,468 yard, Par 72 set-up with the standard split of 4 par-3s and 4-par-5s. However the PGA Tour to this point has not been immune to bringing tees forward, making the course play shorter and much easier.
2025 sees course changes, not to par which remains at 71 shots, instead with additional course length. 66 yards has been added to the par-5 6th hole, taking it up to 635 yards, and 27 yards to the par-4 8th hole which now plays to 509 yards. The back 9 also sees a total of 62 yards added across 3 par-4s, namely the 10th, 11th and 14th, which is unlikely to be driveable now if played at its full 362 yard distance. In total, a not insignificant 155 yards has been added to the course making it a 7,569 yard, Par 71.
This to all intents and purposes changes little, except shaving a couple of shots off the winning total maybe. Undoubtedly this will still be a resort-level scoring eagle and birdie-making test.
The course itself is a Tom Weiskopf design, with gently rolling hills and mature woods surrounding the limestone banks of Rowlett Creek. Ex-PGA Tour player D.A. Weibring also served as a consultant on the golf course design. Water in various guises is apparent throughout the course with Rowlett Creek crossing the course at 14 points. The course itself is far more conventional than the quirky faux-links at Trinity Forest, which hosted the Byron Nelson across both 2018 and 2019.
The front 9 at Craig Ranch is where some serious birdies can be made. The 1st, 3rd and 6th holes are all par-4s at 430 yards or less. Throw in the freshly extended 635 yard (5th) and 564 yard (8th) par-5s and there are birdies to be made on these Bentgrass greens. The back 9 sees a short (maybe driveable on certain days) par-4 at the 14th, a short 147 yard par-3 at the 17th, and an easy par-5 at 552 yards (18th). The 12th has now changed to a 493 yard par-4, whilst the other back 9 holes are made of sterner stuff, but it’s all relative! TPC Craig Ranch played as the 5th easiest course on the PGA Tour in 2021, 4th easiest in 2022, 6th easiest in 2023 and the 7th easiest last year.
TPC Craig Ranch is mid-way through a course renovation overseen by Lanny Watkins. For 2025 he has extended the course, narrowed the fairways and overseeded the course with ryegrass. Rough is up to 3.25”. 2026 will see more changes including revised green complexes and a switch away from Bentgrass to Ultradwarf Bermudagrass greens.
Byron Nelson Winners: Hosted at Craig Ranch: 2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23); 2023: Jason Day (-23); 2022: K.H. Lee (-26); 2021: K.H. Lee (-25); Hosted at Trinity Forest: 2019: Sung Kang (-23); 2018: Aaron Wise (-23); Hosted at AT&T Four Seasons: 2017: Billy Horschel; 2016: Sergio Garcia; 2015: Steven Bowditch; 2014: Brendon Todd; 2013: Sang-moon Bae; 2012: Jason Dufner; 2011: Keegan Bradley; 2010: Jason Day.
2024: Taylor Pendrith 64-67-63-67 -23/261
2023: Jason Day 64-69-66-62 -23/261
2022: K.H. Lee 64-68-67-63 -26/262
2021: K.H. Lee 65-65-67-66 -25/263
OWGR of Byron Nelson Winners: 2024: Pendrith 107; 2023: Day 35; 2022: K.H. Lee 88; 2021: K.H. Lee 137.
Shots From the Lead: Below are Byron Nelson winners at TPC Craig Ranch and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Steven Bowditch: DQ Colonial/47th Quail/MC Sawgrass/12th New Orleans.
Brendon Todd: MC Quail/38th Heritage/43rd Houston/6th San Antonio.
Sang-moon Bae: 33rd Sawgrass/MC Ballantines/48th Heritage/WD San Antonio.
Jason Dufner: 68th Sawgrass/1st New Orleans/24th Heritage/24th Masters.
Keegan Bradley: 72nd Sawgrass/MC Quail/26th New Orleans/MC Heritage.
Jason Day: MC Players/22nd Quail/22nd Heritage/MC Houston.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Sungjae Im; 3) Sam Burns; 4) Harry Hall; 5) Si Woo Kim; 6) Lee Hodges; 7) Jesper Svensson; 8) Jake Knapp; 9) Cam Davis; 10) Ryan Gerard.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Byron Nelson Winners & Prices: 2024: Pendrith 90/1; 2023: Day 18/1; 2022: K.H. Lee 125/1; 2021: K.H. Lee 200/1; 2019: Kang 125/1; 2018: Wise 50/1; 2017: Horschel 125/1; 2016: Garcia 25/1; 2015: Bowditch 500/1; 2014: Todd 100/1; 2013: Bae 150/1; 2012: Dufner 22/1; 2011: Bradley 200/1; 2010: Day 100/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 112/1; Average: 131/1.
Historical Weather:
2024: Thursday: One-hour delay to first-round tee times due to inclement weather. Mostly cloudy. High of 83. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SSE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies.
2023: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind SSE 8-14 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SE 6-12 mph.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SSE 13-17 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 14-18 mph, gusting to 24 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 96. Wind S 12-16 mph, gusting to 23 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 71. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 12-18 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High of 74. Wind W 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High of 81. Wind SSW 12-15 mph with gusts of 30 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Dallas, Texas is here. A 70% chance of precipitation on Wednesday could make the course soft for Round 1. Thursday looks calm and warm at 29 degrees Celsius – 84 Fahrenheit – so expect low scoring.
From there the temperatures drop to 18-22 Celsius – 64-72 Fahrenheit – and the Texas wind increases to 15-20 mph from an easterly direction, plus there’s always the nagging chance of thunderstorms.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational / Joburg Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Pierceson Coody; 2) Thomas Rosenmueller; 3) Harry Higgs; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Emiliano Grillo / Isaiah Salinda; 7) Byeong Hun An; 8) Noah Kent; 9) Taylor Pendrith / Jesper Svensson; 11) Kevin Yu; 12) Sungjae Im; 13) Carson Young; 14) Lanto Griffin / Michael Thorbjornsen; 16) Rico Hoey; 17) Mackenzie Hughes; 18) Austin Eckroat / Lee Hodges; 20) Joel Dahmen / Si Woo Kim / Thorbjorn Olesen; 23) Aldrich Potgieter / Alex Smalley / Will Zalatoris.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sami Valimaki; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Henrik Norlander; 4) John Pak; 5) Alejandro Tosti; 6) Lee Hodges; 7) Will Zalatoris; 8) Stephan Jaeger; 9) Taylor Pendrith; 10) Ryan Gerard; 11) Hayden Buckley; 12) Nate Lashley / Matti Schmid; 14) Byeong Hun An / Ben Griffin / Rico Hoey / Chandler Phillips / Danny Walker / Kevin Yu; 20) Max McGreevy; 21) Ryo Hisatsune / Mackenzie Hughes / Thorbjorn Olesen; 24) Mac Meissner / Davis Riley.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Martin Laird; 2) Matteo Manassero; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Webb Simpson; 5) Ricky Castillo / Kevin Kisner; 7) Paul Peterson; 8) Davis Riley; 9) Byeong Hun An / Eric Cole / Matt Wallace; 12) Matt Kuchar; 13) Patrick Rodgers; 14) Doug Ghim / Stephan Jaeger; 16) Mackenzie Hughes; 17) Chan Kim / Si Woo Kim; 19) Matt McCarty; 20) David Lipsky / Jordan Spieth / Alejandro Tosti; 23) Seamus Power; 24) Trevor Cone / Andrew Putnam / Scottie Scheffler.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Lee Hodges; 3) Byeong Hun An; 4) Rico Hoey; 5) Webb Simpson; 6) Matt McCarty / Thorbjorn Olesen / Alejandro Tosti; 9) Mackenzie Hughes / Jordan Spieth; 11) Will Zalatoris; 12) Ricky Castillo / Si Woo Kim; 14) Stephan Jaeger; 15) Ryo Hisatsune / Chandler Phillips / Kevin Yu; 18) Davis Riley / Hayden Springer; 20) Ryan Gerard; 21) Ben Griffin / Nate Lashley / Sami Valimaki; 24) Sungjae Im / Matt Wallace.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) Sam Burns; 3) Nico Echavarria; 4) Jacob Bridgeman; 5) Victor Perez / Jesper Svensson; 7) Matt Kuchar; 8) Hayden Springer; 9) Ryan Gerard; 10) Scottie Scheffler; 11) Emiliano Grillo / William Mouw / Henrik Norlander / Taylor Pendrith; 15) Sami Valimaki; 16) Patrick Fishburn; 17) Brian Campbell / Stephan Jaeger / Jordan Spieth; 20) Eric Cole / Ryo Hisatsune / Mackenzie Hughes; 23) Jake Knapp; 24) Patrick Rodgers; 25) Pierceson Coody / Austin Eckroat / Sungjae Im.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Norman Xiong; 3) Byeong Hun An; 4) Mackenzie Hughes / Jordon Spieth; 6) Davis Riley / Dylan Wu; 8) Matt McCarty; 9) Thorbjorn Olesen; 10) Ryo Hisatsune / Henrik Norlander / Hayden Springer; 13) Sami Valimaki 14) Jacob Bridgeman / Matt Wallace; 16) Rico Hoey; 17) Stephan Jaeger; 18) Ryan Gerard; 19) Eric Cole; 20) Sungjae Im; 21) Emiliano Grillo / Harry Hall / Sam Ryder; 24) Mac Meissner; 25) Ricky Castillo / Taylor Pendrith / Jesper Svensson.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Byron Nelson winners here since 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Taylor Pendrith (-23). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 38th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 14th.
2023, Jason Day (-23). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
2022, K.H. Lee (-26). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 10th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 13th.
2021, K.H. Lee (-25). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 9th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 16th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Byron Nelson winners here since 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Taylor Pendrith (-23). 319 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (27th), 75.0% greens in regulation (26th), 83.3 % scrambling (4th), 1.57 putts per GIR (1st).
2023, Jason Day (-23). 307 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (34th), 77.8% greens in regulation (10th), 81.3 % scrambling (10th), 1.64 putts per GIR (19th).
2022, K.H. Lee (-26). 307 yards (49th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (18th), 88.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (33rd).
2021, K.H. Lee (-25). 292 yards (35th), 66.1% fairways (41st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 78.6 % scrambling (18th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 28th, Driving Accuracy: 31st, Greens in Regulation: 15th, Scrambling: 9th, Putting Average 14th.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Craig Ranch click here.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Craig Ranch sets-up and what skill sets the course favours:
Taylor Pendrith (2024): “Got off to a pretty good start. On 1 and 2 I hit really nice putts that lipped out from probably 15 feet. The greens are so good, so just knew stay patient and I’m going to make a couple putts. Made a long one on 4 and that kind of just jump started the round. Played really solid. Didn’t really have to scramble for par at all I don’t think. Missed a couple greens but in an easy spot to chip it close, so, yeah, overall great day.Best shot I hit today was 3-wood into 18. I had 256 flag and the wind was in off the left and hit my spot perfectly. Hit it really solid and probably 30, 40 feet on the back fringe. That was the best shot.
I think I learned that I need to stay aggressive, play my own game, not worry about what others are doing and go out there and win it and not let it I guess be brought to you. So that’s what I was trying to do today, stay aggressive. I hit driver on the first hole, which was maybe borderline. If I hit it a little right would be in the hazard. Hit a nice wedge shot and made birdie on the first. Got off to a good start and calmed the nerves a little bit. Yeah, felt like I was driving it good and there was no reason for me not to hit driver on most holes and stay aggressive, because obviously needed to shoot low today to get it done and somebody from the back could have shot 7-, 8-, 9-under to contend So, yeah, that’s what I learned. Just go out there and play aggressive and go and get it.”
Jason Day (2023): ” I mean, you do have to be aggressive, but you’ve got to be careful because there was a good 20 wind out there today, and if you’re trying to push too hard, the way the Bermuda sits and if you’re in the rough and at all short-siding yourself, you can play your way out of it. You’ve still got to be patient, but I know that in the past this has yielded pretty low numbers here, so you kind of have to understand that and then just take it day by day.
Depends on the wind, but yeah, actually you can probably birdie all the holes. You’ve got to be driving it well here. With the softer conditions, we definitely — it definitely widens the fairways. They’re already kind of wide anyway, so it widens the fairways, and then with the softer greens, it’s just kind of like — everyone is kind of flagging it. That’s probably understandable obviously through the scores that you’re seeing.
Yeah, I was trying to get at least one in the last three. Unfortunately bogeyed 16. Nice to be able to birdie 18. It’s funny, the bunkers, not a lot of sand in them. They’ve got a pretty firm base. I’m not saying there’s no sand. They’ve got a really firm base and there’s like a thin layer of sand on there so you’ve got of contact the ball correctly and I caught it a little bit behind, that’s why it kind of shot through. It was good to be able to hole that putt, good momentum going into tomorrow.
On 12 I actually got a little bit unlucky with the hole prior hitting a pitching wedge. It hit the flag, and it ricocheted off the green. I had a lot of good momentum going into that hole just because I birdied 9 and 10, had a really good look at 8 and 7. I chose a 56 because I knew the greens were a little bit softer, that if I landed it very similar to where I would land a 60, it would actually roll up the hill. That was one of those ones where you’re like, I was in the middle of the fairway, I said to my caddie, let’s just go chip it in. But you’re saying that but you’re not really thinking about it, you’re just saying it just because you’re kind of filling in the blanks.
Yeah, I got up there and I’m sitting there reading like it’s actually quite straight and then I chipped it and it went in, so that was a nice kick in the right direction. I was sitting there going, okay, I need to birdie 14, I need to birdie 18 because they’re two holes that you have to birdie, that the guys are going to birdie. It was nice to get through that, and then the bonus was 15, to be able to get the birdie on 15, hitting a 5-iron just right of that hole on the correct plateau was crucial and rolling that putt in was nice.”
K.H. Lee (2022): “I think here is irons game, need irons game good and also putting, because a lot of guys a lot birdie and eagle, so need to low under par. I’m comfortable with tee shot here. I hit a really good iron shot and then I think the key here is iron shot, because a lot of guys make a birdie. So when I hear par-3 or when I tee shot any holes, very, very comfortable, then make more confidence and then it helped this week.”
“Honestly, just my goal is when I, before final round I want to play well, but I don’t think about win, just keep momentum and next week. But No. 2 I think birdie, maybe 50 feet something, make a long putt. And then on number 3 it’s pretty, like 25 feet in the hole. So make more momentum. And then No. 12 make eagle. So I think maybe some chance winning again, so that makes more confidence in myself at that time.”
Jordan Spieth (2022): “So if you’re in the fairway you can attack pins on a lot of the greens, but if you’re not you’re really out of position because they stick ’em over in corners and the way the course is designed it’s, you have to be able to have spin on the ball to get close to the pin. So it’s still going to be a premium on driving, probably more of a premium on driving the ball accurately than it was maybe last year, just because the fairways will play 5 to 10 yards smaller with how firm they are and I think that that’s going to be what the tournament, the Tour, everybody wants out of this place. It can show a little bit of teeth and it’s certainly in the best condition, shape I’ve ever seen it in.”
“I think I said ahead of time I thought that it would show a little more teeth than last year and I couldn’t have been more wrong. I mean a 60 yesterday and a lot of 8s and 7s all over the board. I mean it’s just, a lot of tees are up, it was very surprising. Like the 9th tee being up on the front box, I hit 7 and 8-iron into that par-5 and it’s just designed to have to hit a shot from 250 yards. So obviously that’s nice when you’re in the situation. But they moved some par-3s up too. They moved, like No. 2 they moved to the front of the box. Some interesting ones. And then I think they were looking at the weekend as a lot less wind and so they used more of the easier pins the first two days because I can only name one or two pins on this golf course that were not the easiest two locations that are on the greens. So maybe that’s the reason why, I’m not sure. I’m a little bit surprised at how, on a not-so-difficult golf course they have also set it up a little easier for us too.”
Charl Schwartzel (2021): “Yeah, I did think about it halfway through the back nine. I was like, I haven’t had a round without a bogey for quite sometime. I’ve been playing well. You know, this golf course is really there for the taking, so if there was ever one to do it on, it would be this one. Yeah, especially after last week, Quail Hollow is such a tough golf course and you have to be very strategic. I found myself through the first 12 holes being too conservative, and I turned to my caddie and said, course is soft. I don’t think we can keep hitting away from the flags. It’s a mental shift. I tried to be a bit more aggressive.
This course driving is quite easy, so it’s all second shots, trying to get them close enough. End of the day this tournament is going to come down to a putting contest, who putts the best.”
Sergio Garcia (2021): “For my eagle on 6. Yes, we hit driver and thought we couldn’t reach because it was into the wind, but we knew if we hit it in the fairway we’re going to be around that 50 yard range, and a little bit into the breeze even with a front pin I could nip it nicely out of the Zoysiagrass and spin it. Caught it perfectly. As soon as hit it I knew it was going to be close. Didn’t know if it was going to go in or not, but knew it was going to be close. It was nice to hear the crowd go a little bit crazy there, because we couldn’t see it go in.”
Matt Kuchar (2021): “Warming up on the range this morning it was blowing hard. I was nervous going out there. I saw some pretty good scores up on the leaderboard thinking, boy, I don’t see how the guys are putting them up. I know the course is receptive, but with 15 to 20 mile an hour winds it’s a lot more challenging. Thankfully I was able to get a few birdies early on and kind of get off to a really good start. Think I was 4-under through 6, and made me feel like, All right, it is gettable. Let’s see if we can keep going, and was able to get in with 6-under par today.
Yeah, you never know when the birdies are going to come. You take them when they come, and I was grateful to get them early. Couple scoring holes, I think the third hole is a scoring hole, was able to take advantage there. Then the 5th hole is a par-5, so those two are good. The 6th hole is also almost a drivable hole. So kind of took advantage of those three really easy holes and threw another birdie in as well.”
Patton Kizzire (2021): “I would say my approach, my iron game is one of my strengths, and that’s huge when you match that with my putting. My putting is the best part of my game by far, so when I start hitting the iron shots close I can go low, and I did today.Yeah, I’ll take a lot of confidence. Yeah, so on 15 tee the storm came in, and, gosh, it seemed like it sped everything up. You got the umbrella, you got the wind, rain, yardage, you got so many different factors going and it throws your routine off.
15, 16, 17, and 18, played very difficult, and I would’ve liked to played them under par. The birdie on 17 helped me get it back to even on those four holes, and certainly would’ve liked to birdie 18. But I’m going to hang around and see what happens, and very pleased with 9-under. Most of my wins have come on courses with low scoring, so I enjoy this type of golf. I like to try to go low. I like a lot of birdies and I’ll be back next year.”
2017 – Barnes / Hahn – Both AM -6/64 – 200/1 & 125/1.
2016 – Garcia / D Lee / Wagner – 1AM/2PM -7/63.
2015 – Bowditch – AM -8/62.
2014 – Hanson – PM -5/65.
2013 – Bradley – AM -10/60.
2012 – Palmer – PM -6/64.
2011 – Overton – PM -6/64.
2010 – Day / Mahan – AM/PM Split -4/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
5 – Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth.
4 – Webb Simpson.
3 – Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Scottie Scheffler, Jhonattan Vegas.
2 – Tom Kim.
1 – Sam Burns, Nico Echavarria, Emiliano Grillo, Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, Charley Hoffman, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Ben Martin, Matt McCarty, Taylor Pendrith, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Danny Willett.
The Byron Nelson is always a difficult tournament to call and the move in 2021 to yet another new course adds another level of intrigue to this betting heat. As a tournament, we’ve seen a whole list of unexpected winners. Indeed Jason Day (this was 2010), Keegan Bradley, Sang-moon Bae, Brendon Todd, Steven Bowditch, Billy Horschel, Sung Kang and K.H. Lee (twice) have won 9 of the past 14 renewals at triple-digits. Bowditch topped the lot price-wise, delivering a 500/1 coup for the bookmakers 10 years ago.
K.H. Lee’s duo of wins here at TPC Craig Ranch came at 200/1 and 125/1, with Taylor Pendrith a 90/1 price here 12 months ago.
On the reverse side, Jason Dufner (22/1 in 2012), Sergio Garcia (25/1 in 2016) and Jason Day (18/1 2023), have been the only short-priced players in the betting market who ultimately prevailed since 2010. And 2018 saw the prestigiously talented Aaron Wise overhaul long term leader Marc Leishman and capture his first PGA Tour title at 50/1.
Another angle is that recent winners Taylor Pendrith, K.H. Lee, Kang, Wise, Todd, Bae, Bradley and Day had never won on the PGA Tour.
Jason Dufner in 2012 had only captured his previous victory 2 appearances prior at TPC Louisiana. 2017 saw Billy Horschel arrive with form of MC-MC-MC-MC to then go onto capture his 4th PGA Tour victory. The Floridian had not won a tournament since the 2014 Tour Championship, ending a 2 and 1/2 year hiatus. Sergio Garcia in 2016 had not won on the PGA Tour for 2 and 3/4 years. Jason Day broke a 5 year winless steak with an emotional victory here in 2023, whilst K.H Lee won when defending his maiden PGA Tour title. It’s certainly a mixed picture!
My Final CJ Cup Byron Nelson Tips Are As Follows:
Jordan Spieth 2Pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
Jordan Spieth in his home state of Texas works. Indeed we were lucky enough to be on him at 16/1 when he won the 2021 Valero Texas Open, breaking his winless streak which went back to the 2017 Open Championship.
The Texas angle is fascinating. 10th (2014), 2nd (2015), 1st (2021) and 10th (2024) at TPC San Antonio; 7th (2013), 2nd (2015), 1st (2016), 2nd (2017), 8th (2019), 10th (2020), 2nd (2021), and 7th (2022) at Colonial; 2nd (2015) and 3rd (2018) at the GC of Houston. Spieth though traditionally struggled at the Byron Nelson – his local tournament – when it was played at previous venues Las Colinas and Trinity Forest, with nothing better than 16th in 9 appearances.
That has changed though since the move to TPC Craig Ranch where he’s finished 9th (2021) and 2nd (2022) from 3 appearances.
From a motivation perspective, the Byron Nelson has always been a tournament very close to Jordan’s heart. He made his first ever PGA Tour start at Las Colinas in 2010, and in his first press conference stated; “I’ve been coming here to this tournament since I was five years old, so I’ve always wanted to play in this event, and for it to be my first Tour stop obviously is incredible. I didn’t think it would come this young.” Fast forward to 2015, when he said; “It would be cool to close a Texas tournament out (he won his first at Colonial in 2016) and it would be a dream come true at this event. This is one I’ve always imagined winning and it would be cool to just do it.”
Plus he needs a victory and soon. His 2 wins in this decade have been in weak affairs – so this week suits – and a look at the Team USA Ryder Cup points list sees no Spieth in the top 20. Keegan Bradley won’t pick him unless Jordan delivers far better results.
A 5-time winner on Bentgrass greens from 13 PGA Tour wins, Spieth across my 8 tournament Strokes Gained rankings sits in the top 20 for Putting, top 10 for Tee to Green and top 5 for Current Form in this week’s poor field.
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Getting a South Korean on-side at the Byron Nelson is never a bad idea. Now with CJ Group sponsorship that adds to the Korean vibe, as does the fact that Dallas and this course in particular is used regularly by the South Korean contingent. Sang-moon Bae (2013) and Sung Kang (2019) won the Byron Nelson at previous host courses. K.H Lee won here at TPC Craig Ranch in both 2021 and 2022, plus S.H. Kim, Byeong Hun An and Si Woo Kim have all placed in the each-way money here.
Many will support and invest in Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim this week in Dallas, but I’m going with Si Woo Kim. 2nd (2023) and 13th (2024) here at TPC Craig Ranch, Si Woo played very nicely at Harbour Town a fortnight ago, shooting 68-64-66 over the opening 54 holes to lead heading into Sunday. A disappointing 74 on Sunday transpired, but that was at Signature event level and was the first time he had led a tournament going into Sunday since the 2023 Memorial Tournament, so all very excusable.
Positive across all Strokes Gained facets of his game at Harbour Town, it was noticeable that Si Woo putted positively – 14th for Strokes Gained Putting – which I like for a player heading into a birdiefest. A MC at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with part-timer Sang-moon Bae did little else than protect his price for this week.
At 66th in the OWGR, the 29 year-old, 4-time PGA Tour winner is in danger of missing out on June’s U.S. Open, and after wins in early 2017, 2021 and 2023, is due a win soon.
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Sam Burns is in the same boat as Jordan Spieth when it comes to the Ryder Cup. Whilst the likes of Daniel Berger, Tom Hoge, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Novak and J.J. Spaun have thrust themselves into the limelight for Team USA Ryder Cup selection, the 2023 Team members Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Spieth and Sam Burns are on the fringes for qualification at the very best. They need results – and quickly.
Sam Burns has never won outside of Florida, Mississippi or Texas. He thrives on courses bedecked with Bermudagrass or Zoysiagrass. This is the third of four Texas events and very soon the Tour disappears to points north such as Pennsylvania, Canada, Ohio, Connecticut, Michigan and Illinois. So to all intents and purposes this weak, lower second-tier event is a huge opportunity for the World Number 39.
A winner of the World Matchplay at Austin Country Club and the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, Sam has 6 top-7 finishes in the Lone Star State on his CV and that includes 2nd here at TPC Craig Ranch in 2022. His Colonial win came on Bentgrass greens.
46th at The Masters (22nd after 36 holes) and 13th at the RBC Heritage shows progress, especially with his Strokes Gained Off the Tee game, plus his birdie making and putting is still elite level – ranking 12th for Birdie Average on the PGA Tour in 2025 plus 2nd in this field for Strokes Gained Putting across my 8-week tournament Strokes Gained rankings.
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Cam Davis has played some very nice golf over the past couple of weeks. 5 straight MCs including The Masters was followed by 13th at the Signature-level RBC Heritage, where he ranked 8th for Strokes Putting.
He followed that up with 32nd last week at TPC Louisiana in partnership with Adam Svensson. Across the 2 best-ball rounds Australian, Davis shot 2 Eagles and 8 Birdies across 36 holes to show that he’s in the scoring shape for a contending performance around TPC Craig Ranch.
We know that Davis can shoot low totals. 10th (2022) plus 13th (2025) at Kapalua came with -23/269 and -22/270 totals. 3rd at PGA West (2021) came at -20/268, plus he ranks 4th for Birdie Average and 12th for Eagles per Hole on the PGA Tour so far in 2025.
A 2-time PGA Tour winner on Bentgrass-base greens at Detroit Golf Club (2021 and 2024), Cam is great in the wind, ranking T11 in this field across the last 5 years on the PGA Tour within our CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictor Model, and I think he will like the wide-open nature of TPC Craig Ranch on course debut this week.
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Sami Valimaki has been mixing it at the top of leaderboards for a month now, but we still find him at what I consider a value price this week – especially when 3 of the last 4 winners of this have won at 90/1 and bigger. 70% of the Strokes Gained Total needed to win here over the first 4 renewals have been via Approach and Putting, so Sami fits nicely here in Dallas as a glance at his PGA Tour stats profile notes that he sits 8th for Approach and 14th for Putting across 2025 to date. Elite level across those skill-sets.
His weakness tends to be accuracy off the tee and that will be negated this week on a course with wide fairways and where the penalty for missing a fairway is one of the least on the whole Tour. He’s also been making tonnes of birdies of late. 18 at the RBC Heritage was only 4 behind winner Justin Thomas at Signature-level; 1 Eagle and 22 Birdies at the Texas Children’s Open was only a couple of conversions behind winner Min Woo Lee. The Finn is undoubtedly trending.
A 2-time winner on the DP World Tour on medium to long golf courses, Valimaki comes into the CJ Cup Byron Nelson both with course experience and plenty of form on Bentgrass-based putting surfaces, as you would expect from a player who grew up playing golf in Finland and northern Europe.
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