Cognizant Classic Tips 2025

 

Congratulations to you if you were on Brian Campbell at Monday opening prices of up to 150/1 with Unibet. There must have been someone right? My 40/1 selection Alex Smalley was within 2 shots of the lead at the close of his front 9, but then decided to close with a double bogey plus a couple of bogeys in his final 7 holes to torpedo my week totally. If you want my unfettered views on Smalley, come and listen to the Golf Betting System Podcast this week – out Tuesday 25th February on all podcast platforms.

On to the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (catchy) this week, which marks the start of the Florida Swing on the PGA Tour. The first of 4 consecutive tournaments in the Sunshine State, we’ll see the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship and the Valspar Championship, prior to moving onto Texas and then Georgia. The Cognizant Classic itself has always been known as a tough examination as it takes place at the Jack Nicklaus-inspired Champion Course at PGA National. The 2025 field includes Henley, Straka, Lowry, Horschel, Im, An, Harman McCarthy plus defending champion Austin Eckroat.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Guide: Welcome to Florida, where The Champion Course at PGA National awaits. It’s an archetypical Florida golf course with water hazards, testing bunkering and tough rough aplenty. Positioned within 7 miles of the Atlantic east coast, this part of Florida is synonymous with windy conditions. This test therefore suits those with a Major temperament: players who have patience, but also those who can take advantage of key holes where birdies have to be made. The famous ‘Bear Trap’, the stretch of 15-17, is one of the hardest sets of holes in non-Major golf.

The Champion Course, PGA National Resort, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida: Designer: Tom and George Fazio, 1981 with Nicklaus re-designs in 2002, 2014, 2018 Course Type: Florida, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,167 yards ; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 15; Number of Bunkers 60; Acres of Fairway: 25; Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Rye; Rough: TifSport Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Rye 2.5″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

• 2024: 70.10 (-0.90), Rank 20 of 51 courses
• 2023: 70.36 (+0.36), Rank 13 of 49 courses
• 2022: 71.34 (+1.34), Rank 7 of 50 courses
• 2021: 71.10 (+1.10), Rank 6 of 51 courses
• 2020: 71.90 (+1.90), Rank 3 of 41 courses

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus designs include:

• Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
• Castle Pines Golf Club – BMW Championship 2024
• Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
• Muirfield Village – The Memorial Tournament
• Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
• Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020 onwards
• PGA West – Tournament Course – The American Express 2016 onwards
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
• The Concession – WGC Workday Championship 2021
• Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 + 2024 PGA Championship

PGA National Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Champions Course at PGA National and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
• El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
• Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.

Course Overview: 2025 sees the Champion Course for the second year play in a slightly different guise than what we have seen historically. The par-4 10th has been converted to a par-5, and for 2025 extended (again) to 550 yards, making the course play as a 7,167 yard Par 71, with a single par-5 on the front side and now 2 par-5s on the back side.

This follows on from a 2018 Jack Nicklaus-inspired renovation where all 18 green complexes were re-worked, featuring larger 7,000 sq.ft. average putting surfaces. Said greens all featured new TifEagle Bermudagrass turf as well, replacing the old TifEagle surfaces which had been at the end of their PGA Tour standard lifespan. As with all new putting surfaces they were firm and repelled approach shots. 6 years down the line they have settled down, but can release if not watered.

From a hazard perspective, bunkering on the Champions Course is difficult with 60 bunkers and naturally it’s a Florida-style golf course. You can also add 26 individual water hazards into the difficulty mix, with 15 of the 18 holes featuring water in-play.

PGA National is an exposed property allowing direct access to tee boxes, fairways and green complexes for any wind. Since the Nicklaus-inspired course changes, winning totals of -17/267 (Eckroat), -14/266 (Kirk), -10/270 (Straka), -12/268 (Jones), -6/274 (Im), and -9/271 (Mitchell) highlight a course and playing conditions which can stretch these PGA Tour players.

Course experience is important, but debutants can also contend – take local rookie Daniel Berger in 2015, for instance, or Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren in 2018, the same year Wyndham Clark was 54-hole leader. Tequesta, Florida rookie Eric Cole made a play off with Chris Kirk in 2023, with Min Woo Lee a debutant here last year who finished runner-up. Rory Sabbatini won in 2011.

Ultimately maximising birdie opportunities, especially on 12 visits to the par-5s, will be critical in a tournament that will undoubtedly feature wind-positive players. It’s never a birdie fest here. Look for those with a decent long approach game, allied to razor-sharp Bermudagrass scrambling and putting skills to levitate to the top of the leaderboard. However the ability to grind it out will naturally be paramount on this difficult golf course.

Cognizant Classic Winners: 2024: Austin Eckroat (-17); 2023: Chris Kirk (-14); 2022: Sepp Straka (-10); 2021: Matt Jones (-12); 2020: Sungjae Im (-6); 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9); 2018: Justin Thomas (-8); 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12); 2016: Adam Scott (-9); 2015: Padraig Harrington (-6); 2014: Russell Henley (-8); 2013: Michael Thompson (-9); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-12); 2011: Rory Sabbatini (-9); 2010: Camilo Villegas (-13).

• 2024: Austin Eckroat 65-67-68-67 -17/267
• 2023: Chris Kirk 69-62-66-69 -14/266
• 2022: Sepp Straka 71-64-69-66 -10/270
• 2021: Matt Jones 61-70-69-68 -12/268
• 2020: Sungjae Im 72-66-70-66 -6/274
• 2019: Keith Mitchell 68-66-70-67 -9/271
• 2018: Justin Thomas 67-72-65-68 -8/272
• 2017: Rickie Fowler 66-66-65-71 -12/268

OWGR of Cognizant Classic Winners: 2024: Eckroat 101; 2023: Kirk 47; 2022: Straka 176; 2021: Jones 83; 2020: Im 34; 2019: Mitchell 161; 2018: Thomas 4; 2017: Fowler 14.

Cut Line: 2024: -2; 2023: +1; 2022: +2; 2021: +1; 2020: +3; 2019: +2; 2018: +5; 2017: E.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2024: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -17.
• 2023: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -14.
• 2022: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -11; Round 4 -10.
• 2021: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -12.
• 2020: Round 1 -4; Round 2 -5; Round 3 -5; Round 4 -6.
• 2019: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -6; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -9.
• 2018: Round 1 -4; Round 2 -3; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -8.
• 2017: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -12.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Cognizant Classic winners since 2010:

• 2024 – Austin Eckroat: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2023 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 27th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2022 – Sepp Straka: Round 1: 65th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2021 – Matt Jones: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Sungjae Im: Round 1: 63rd, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2019 – Keith Mitchell: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2018 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2017 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Padraig Harrington: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2014 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2013 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Rory Sabbatini: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Camilo Villegas: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are Cognizant Classic winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2010:

• 2024 – Austin Eckroat: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2023 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2022 – Sepp Straka: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 5 back.
• 2021 – Matt Jones: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2020 – Sungjae Im: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2019 – Keith Mitchell: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2018 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2017 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 ahead.
• 2016 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: level.
• 2015 – Padraig Harrington: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2014 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2013 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2011 – Rory Sabbatini: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 5 ahead.
• 2010 – Camilo Villegas: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 ahead.

Incoming Form of Cognizant Classic winners since 2010:

• Austin Eckroat: 38th Mexico/MC TPC Scottsdale/37th Torrey/25th PGA West.
• Chris Kirk: MC TPC Scottsdale/3rd PGA West/3rd Waialae/MC Sea Island.
• Sepp Straka: 15th Riviera/66th TPC Scottsdale/16th Torrey/49th PGA West.
• Matt Jones: 55th TPC Sawgrass/MC Bay Hill/8th Riviera/34th Pebble.
• Sungjae Im: 29th Mexico/MC Riviera/34th TPC Scottsdale/36th Torrey.
• Keith Mitchell: MC Riviera/MC Pebble/MDF TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey.
• Justin Thomas: 9th Riviera/17th TPC Scottsdale/14th Waialae/22nd Kapalua.
• Rickie Fowler: 4th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/36th Abu/3rd World Challenge.
• Adam Scott: 2nd Riviera/56th Waialae/10th World Challenge/2nd Aus Open.
• Padraig Harrington: 56th Riviera/MC Pebble/MC Torrey/MC TPC Scottsdale.
• Russell Henley: MC Riviera/52nd Pebble/MC TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey.
• Michael Thompson: MC Riviera/MC TPC Scottsdale/78th Torrey/MC Waialae.
• Rory McIlroy: 2nd WMP/5th Dubai/2nd Abu Dhabi.
• Rory Sabbatini: 5th El Camaleon/MC Riviera/15th Pebble/22nd TPC Scottsdale.
• Camilo Villegas: 8th Phoenix/3rd WMP/9th Qatar/19th Abu Dhabi.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Daniel Berger; 2) Brian Campbell; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Sepp Straka; 5) Nicolai Hojgaard; 6) Min Woo Lee; 7) Camilo Villegas; 8) Lucas Glover; 9) Keith Mitchell; 10) Gary Woodland.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Cognizant Classic Winners & Prices: 2024: Eckroat 100/1; 2023: Kirk 25/1; 2022: Straka 125/1; 2021: Jones 80/1; 2020: Im 35/1; 2019: Mitchell 300/1; 2018: Thomas 12/1; 2017: Fowler 16/1; 2016: Scott 20/1; 2015: Harrington 400/1; 2014: Henley 300/1; 2013: Thompson 300/1; 2012: McIlroy 9/1F; 2011: Sabbatini 80/1; 2010: Villegas 30/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 73/1; Overall Average: 122/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 80. Wind from the E at 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered afternoon showers. High of 79. Wind from the SE at 15-25 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 80. Wind from the SE at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High of 80. Wind from the SE at 8-15 mph. Monday: Mostly cloudy. High of 81. Wind from the E at 8-15 mph.
• 2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind SE 8-14 mph, with gusts to 18 mph. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 6:18p.m. ET with 12 players left on the course. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind E 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind ESE 8-12 mph, with gusts to 16 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind ESE 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph.
• 2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind ESE 18 mph, with gusts to 22 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind ESE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 18 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Heavy rainfall to conclude the final round.
• 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 86. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 78. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 77. Wind W 7-14 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 64. Wind NW 8-18 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 65. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 69. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 72. Wind E 7-18 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 83. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind ESE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 84. Wind ESE 8-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 84. Wind SSE 12-20 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind E 15-25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind E 15-25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind ESE 12-22 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind SE 10-18 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 79. Wind NNW 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind NNE 7-14 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 85. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind NNE 15-20 mph.
• 2016: Weather: Thursday: Sunny and windy, with sustained winds of 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. High of 70 degrees. Due to darkness, play was suspended for the day at 6:35 p.m., with three players remaining on the course. Friday: The first round resumed at 7:45 a.m. Friday and ended at 7:51 a.m. Sunny, with a high of 70 degrees. Wind NW 12-22 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 70 degrees. Wind N 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 74 degrees. Wind E 10-18 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 86. Wind WSW at 15-25 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. High of 73 with NNE wind at 10-20 mph. Due to a dangerous weather situation, officials delayed the second round for 2:08, from 8:23-10:31 a.m. Officials suspended play for a second time, at 10:55 a.m., due to lightning. The second round resumed at 12:31 p.m. The second suspension lasted 1:36. Due to darkness, officials suspended the second round for the day at 6:12 p.m., with all the afternoon groups remaining on the course. Saturday: Overcast, with severe wind and thunderstorms throughout the day. High of 73, with variable winds peaking at 60 mph. Due to a dangerous weather situation, officials suspended the third round at 12:51 p.m. Officials called play for the day, at 2:51 p.m. Sunday: Partly cloudy and breezy, with a high of 79. Wind E at 15-25 mph. Monday: Temperatures reached the lower-80s, with E wind at 8-15 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, Florida is here.

90% chance of rain on tournament Monday could well douse the Champion Course, but in general weather in this part of Florida has been the driest on my records since 2021. A downpour will likely see some cut on the fairways come Thursday. We are also used to gusting winds being a feature here, but with nothing worse than gusting 20mph southerly winds peaking on Friday morning, we could see less wind than 12 months ago. Temperatures step up a level from the west coast swing and are similar to last year with 21-27 degrees Celsius (70-81) throughout.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to The Sentry which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Keith Mitchell; 3) Luke Clanton; 4) Alejandro Tosti; 5) Adam Schenk / Davis Thompson; 7) Byeong Hun An; 8) Gary Woodland; 9) Sungjae Im; 10) Steven Fisk / Kurt Kitayama; 12) Bud Cauley / Min Woo Lee / Luke List / Shane Lowry; 16) Cameron Young; 17) Lucas Glover / Jesper Svensson; 19) Taylor Moore / Sepp Straka; 21) Chris Kirk / Kevin Roy / Jordan Spieth; 24) Niklas Norgaard; 25) Ben Kohles / Carson Young.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Jackson Suber; 2) J.J. Spaun; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Sepp Straka; 5) Denny McCarthy; 6) David Lipsky; 7) Doug Ghim / Nicolai Hojgaard; 9) Tom Hoge / Niklas Norgaard; 11) Billy Horschel; 12) Shane Lowry / Andrew Putnam; 14) Charley Hoffman / Taylor Pendrith; 16) Max Greyserman / Seamus Power / Gary Woodland; 19) Antoine Rozner / Sam Ryder; 21) Jhonattan Vegas; 22) Jordan Spieth; 23) Jake Knapp; 24) Patton Kizzire / Alex Smalley.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Davis Thompson; 2) Ryan Fox; 3) Pierceson Coody; 4) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 5) Matteo Manassero / Webb Simpson; 7) Harry Hall / Taylor Moore; 9) Bud Cauley / Zach Johnson / C.T. Pan; 12) Andrew Novak / Alex Smalley; 14) Russell Henley; 15) Denny McCarthy / Mac Meissner / Ben Silverman; 18) Brice Garnett; 19) Sungjae Im; 20) Keith Mitchell / Seamus Power / Cameron Young; 23) Byeong Hun An; 24) Daniel Berger / Min Woo Lee / Patton Kizzire / Taylor Pendrith.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Taylor Pendrith; Gary Woodland; 3) Shane Lowry / Alex Smalley; 5) Russell Henley / Keith Mitchell; 7) Bud Cauley / Sepp Straka; 9) Webb Simpson; 10) Jackson Suber; 11) Niklas Norgaard; 12) Daniel Berger; 13) Min Woo Lee; 14) Doug Ghim / Denny McCarthy/ Davis Thompson; 17) Charley Hoffman; 18) Taylor Moore; 19) Greyson Sigg; 20) Lucas Glover / Ben Griffin / Jordan Spieth; 23) Max Greyserman; 24) Ryan Fox / Andrew Novak / Thorbjorn Olesen.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Luke Donald; 2) Pierceson Coody; 3) Brandt Snedeker; 4) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 5) Harry Hall; 6) Russell Henley / Braden Thornberry; 8) Matthieu Pavon; 9) Sungjae Im; 10) Lee Hodges; 11) Frankie Capan / Nico Echavarria; 13) Denny McCarthy; 14) Jake Knapp / Min Woo Lee / Brendon Todd; 17) Ben Kohles / Sepp Straka; 19) Adam Schenk; 20) Niklas Norgaard; 21) Justin Lower; 22) Francesco Molinari; 23) Quade Cummins / Brian Harman / Sam Ryder / Jordan Spieth.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Adam Schenk; 2) Russell Henley; 3) Sepp Straka; 4) Min Woo Lee; 5) Taylor Pendrith; 6) Bud Cauley; 7) Denny McCarthy / Keith Mitchell; 9) Lee Hodges; 10) Ryan Gerard; 11) Gary Woodland; 12) Alex Smalley; 13) Harry Hall / Matt Kuchar; 15) Nicolai Hojgaard; 16) Sam Ryder / J.J. Spaun; 18) Max Greyserman; 19) Brian Campbell / Sungjae Im / Shane Lowry; 22) Ryan Fox / Jake Knapp; 24) Ben Kohles / Webb Simpson.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Cognizant Classic winners post Nicklaus course re-design in 2018 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2024, Austin Eckroat (-17). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 45th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 15th.
• 2023, Chris Kirk (-14). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 37th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 9th.
• 2022, Sepp Straka (-10). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 4th.
• 2021, Matt Jones (-12). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 25th.
• 2020, Sungjae Im (-6). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 5th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 38th.
• 2019, Keith Mitchell (-9). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 38th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 22nd.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Cognizant Classic winners post Nicklaus course re-design in 2018 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this tough Florida golf test:

• 2024, Austin Eckroat (-17). 292 yards (45th), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 34’2″ proximity to hole (22nd), 53.8 % scrambling (52nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2023, Chris Kirk (-14). 296 yards (54th), 62.5% fairways (35th), 75.0% greens in regulation (7th), 30’2″ proximity to hole (4th), 66.7 % scrambling (20th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2022, Sepp Straka (-10). 310 yards (13th), 83.9% fairways (1st), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 34’3″ proximity to hole (17th), 76.5 % scrambling (3rd), 1.78 putts per GIR (27th).
• 2021, Matt Jones (-12). 315 yards (15th), 64.3% fairways (15th), 72.2% greens in regulation (5th), 40’0″ proximity to hole (56th), 65.0 % scrambling (17th), 1.71 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2020, Sungjae Im (-6). 292 yards (40th), 67.9% fairways (10th), 69.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 36’8″ proximity to hole (11th), 68.2 % scrambling (5th), 1.78 putts per GIR (29th).
• 2019, Keith Mitchell (-9). 306 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (54th), 62.5% greens in regulation (22nd), 39’7″ proximity to hole (50th), 77.8 % scrambling (2nd), 1.71 putts per GIR (18th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 29th, Driving Accuracy: 20th, Greens in Regulation: 6th, Proximity to Hole: 27th, Scrambling: 17th, Putting Average 14th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how PGA National sets-up plus what skill sets they favour:

Austin Eckroat (2024): “I think the morning wave yesterday had a little bit better of a draw because we had basically 18 holes yesterday of no wind, and then it definitely looked like it was a little windier this morning than it was for us, but it was still windy out there.

The par-5 10th, was a lot different than it was yesterday or even last year when it was playing as a par-4.

It’s still a tricky tee ball because they moved it back, but I had an 8-iron into the green today, into a par-5, which mentally is such a different outlook on the hole where it used to be a grind for par to where now you get on the tee box thinking you have a great chance to make birdie.

As an amateur I played here I think it was the Polo then and it’s the Rolex now, the AJGA, whatever the series that they have, those invitationals. Either played it once or twice but never too much success.”

Chris Kirk (2023): “Yeah, it was definitely the conditions that lent itself to being able to be a little bit more aggressive, being able to dial in kind of carry distances and stuff like that with irons and wedges better. Usually we’re playing for 15, 20 plus yards of hurt going into the wind shots, and 15, 20 yards of help on downwind shots. So it’s really difficult to get those just right when it’s really windy. But today there was hardly a breath most of the round, and so it became a little bit more target practice.

To make eagle it was a good tee ball and a 5-wood. I think it was 249 or so and hit a 5-wood to about maybe just inside 20 feet or so and made it. That was kind of the first — after not making anything yesterday, it was awesome to see that one just kind of go right in the middle, perfect speed, and really got me going.

Probably my iron play was the strength today. That was kind of a strength for me at Sony and Amex where I played so well, and has been a strength most of the year this year. I made a couple really good driver swings kind of towards the end of my round today, especially on 18. I didn’t quite catch it in the middle on 18, but was the exact shape, right where I wanted it. I feel like that’s going to be an important thing for me tomorrow, to go out and drive it well.

But I feel good about where my golf swing is, and if I can do a good job reading these greens — the greens are so tricky to read. You get a lot of putts out here where the grain is fighting the slope a little bit, and you’ve got to pick one.”

Sepp Straka (2022): “Yeah, it’s definitely one of the tougher ones we play all year, but it’s right there in front of you. I mean you basically try not to hit it in the water. You just pick your safe targets and you hit an aggressive shot at your safe targets and that’s kind of the key. I knew that I’d been putting really well all week. I had been reading, at that point I had been reading the greens great. We’d been putting a lot of good rolls on it. It’s just one of those things where when the greens get as fast as they are here, it gets windy, you’re going to have some misses. So you do have to kind of try to get over it and try to make the next one.”

“ I feel like historically there’s been a lot of guys who have come from behind to win here, just because not only is every shot you hit really demanding and really tough, I mean, you add the nerves and the pressure on top of that, it just makes it really hard and just so easy to make mistakes.”

Matt Jones (2021): “I started off really good. I hit it close the first five holes. 6 is always a tough hole and then I hit a really good shot on 7. It was a very good ball-striking day for me with my irons, especially with being able to control trajectory and shot shape was good. It’s not a terrible wind for me. You’ve just got to trust that it’s going to do what you think it’s going to do. I had started it on the right, I hit a really good shot, probably 15 or 20 foot, then 16 to an inch or two inches and 17, if you watch the coverage this afternoon 17 is not going to be a fun hole at all. If anyone hits that green, they’re going to be doing well. I got lucky to hole it from off the green from 30 feet. It was a good day. I struck it really nicely.”

“Yeah, actually my rookie year I think I finished fourth here. I think I was tied for the lead for a long time, and I thought about that while I was out there playing. Someone sent me a screenshot of that leaderboard yesterday, so it was good to see that. It’s just a difficult golf course. If you’re off a little bit you can’t get away with it around here. It was good to make birdies and get away with it. It was good to make birdies and get away with it.”

“Yeah, playing it in those Australian Opens where I won two, it was windy, so I’m quite comfortable in the wind. So, yeah, growing up in Australia we’re used to the wind and hopefully we can just keep managing the game. In the wind I probably played a little safer. I don’t go at pins. I like to try and control my ball flights in the wind, so I probably take the speed off a lot of the time. But, yeah, it’s not lowering expectations, it’s just playing a little more conservatively is a better way to put it.”

Sungjae Im (2020): “In between 15 and 17, 15 is probably the hardest hole out here in my opinion, and just going into that hole the past few days, I was a little tentative and didn’t really hit my lines. But going into today, I had the right club, the wind was in the right spot, and just felt like I had everything to attack the pin the way I did and just had the right club and was comfortable with the wind. That way I just was aggressive and saw my shot, and glad it worked out the way it did. I’ve been good out of the bunkers all week. I really like the bunkers around here, and once I got up and saw my ball and saw that it was a good lie, I knew that it was just an ordinary, everyday bunker shot. I went up there and I was pretty confident with it, and glad that the ball came out the way it did.”

Keith Mitchell (2019): “This golf course you’ve got to stay so patient. I played Q-school here in the final stage and I played last year, and Q-school on this golf course is probably the most stress there could ever be in your career because either it’s all or nothing. I mean, just having that experience in the back of my mind out here is good, and we know – and I know a couple holes out here you’ve just got to — you don’t even look at a flag. You just hit it in a certain spot on the green, and it doesn’t matter where the flag is, you’ll be all right. That works when you’re hitting it well. So thankfully the last couple days I’ve been hitting it pretty good.

The greens have been recently re-surfaced. Well, the grain is still there. It’s not perfect because they’re still growing in a little bit, but the majority of the grain is still there. Once I have a decent read on the slope, you just double check the grain, and it either confirms it or makes you hit it straight. When you’ve done it your whole life, it’s a little bit easier. I don’t think there’s a number on this course. A lot of times pars are a good score. I started the day tied for first, shot even, now I’m tied for second. I don’t think you can play aggressive out here. If you do, I think it will eat you because this golf course is tough. I played it in Q-school, and I didn’t make it through a lot of guys that came down the stretch with all that pressure. It’s tough. We’re just going to try to hit it to maybe a flag or two, be aggressive, but I’ll tell you what, almost all of them I’ll play conservative.”

Justin Thomas (2018): “If you’re driving it well, you can – like Rickie did last year, you can play this course well and make a lot of pars and sprinkle in some birdies and you’re going to beat a lot of the field. But if you’re not playing well, it’s hard to shoot a good number. You can grind it out at around par, if you’re not driving it great, but if you’re driving it bad, it’s a tough place to play well. It’s very difficult. This course presents such a challenge in itself with just the amount of hazards out there, the amount of difficult holes. It’s a place for a handful of holes, if you drive it well, you have some birdie opportunities. Some of those holes, you’re just kind of holding on for dear life. The greens aren’t very Bermuda-like this week. They are a little bare in terms of there’s not a lot of grain. They roll great and they can get fast downhill. They roll true but there’s not like new fresh bermudagrass. The good thing coming off poa annua, most things are going to seem easier to putt on.”

Rickie Fowler: “I love it that it’s a ball-striker’s golf course. You’ve got to drive the ball well to give yourself an opportunity to get a ball close on the greens. Yeah, putting can save you, but you’ve got to be solid tee-to-green here. I feel like it brings out some of the guys that are hitting the ball the best that week. I don’t like all the water. I’ve got to try and stay away from that. No, it’s a good test of golf here. Like I said, you’ve got to be on point tee-to-green. You can’t fake it around here. It’s a good test, and especially when we get the kind of standard 10- to 20-mile-an-hour winds.”

Adam Scott: “Yeah, it just always seems to blow around here no matter what direction. And always plays tough, even with the amount of rain in the last couple days, it’s not easy to get the ball if good spots out there when it’s blowing this hard. I thought there were some pretty challenging pins out there, as well, in back corners of greens that made it tougher, because it made it quite long, a few of those holes. Yeah, I played really great today tee-to-green. It was exactly what you want to do around this kind of golf course, in a little bit of wind; and also in the afternoon when the greens are just not quite as smooth playing 7:45 in the morning. So much can happen, especially at a golf course like this. There’s trouble waiting on every misjudgement or poor swing. I’m just going to try and play that solid round of golf and give myself as many opportunities as I can.”

Padraig Harrington: “On a windy day, if things are going well for you, you do tend to be able to make a few birdies coming home. If you’re a couple over par early on, you don’t see any way out, but thankfully as I said, got a decent start which is so important. There’s a lot of tough shots, a lot of tough tee shots. A couple of tee shots that you’re really under pressure to hit the fairway in a strong wind. You just have to man up and hit the shots, that’s it. We are going to hit a few bad ones but you’ve just got to stand there and try to hit the right shot at the right time and accept your fate.”

Russell Henley: “I think it might have something to do with getting back to the bermudagrass. I feel like whenever I play Riviera, I’m uncomfortable. I’ve made the cut one time there of the three times. I love the course. I love the atmosphere. I want to play well there obviously. But I’m just not super comfortable on that course yet. But you know, those West Coast tournaments can be brutal. I feel like those greens are really hard to putt on, and they are not easy courses. Torrey Pines is not easy, and I’d say Pebble with the weather, usually predicts what the scores are going to be. When I played it last year, it was really tough. I think those courses are just ones I’m still trying to get comfortable on, and then when I come over here to some bermudagrass, I look down and feel like it’s what I’ve been doing my whole life. Maybe I just get a little bit comfortable. That’s the best explanation I have for you.”

Ben Crane: “This is one of the toughest golf courses we play all year. It’s in perfect shape but it’s so nice to get to these Bermuda greens because the ball just stays on line. But I played great today. Made a lot of birdies, and you’re going to have to make a lot of birdies on this golf course in order to score because you’re going to make some bogeys. You’re going to drive the ball in the rough and if you don’t get the ball up and down from a hundred yards you’re going to make bogey. It’s a great test of golf. I know a lot of guys really love this golf course.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2024 – S.H. Kim / Ramey – AM/PM Split -7/64 – 150/1 & 225/1.
• 2023 – Bramlett / Horschel / Carson Young – 2AM/1PM Split -5/65 – 70/1, 66/1 & 350/1.
• 2022 – Kitayama – AM -6/64 – 225/1.
• 2021 – Jones – AM -9/61 – 80/1.
• 2020 – English / Lewis – AM/PM Split -4/66 – 70/1 & 90/1.
• 2019 – Vegas – AM -6/64 – 100/1.
• 2018 – Noren / Simpson – AM/PM Split -4/66 – 50/1 & 80/1.
• 2017 – Bryan / Gribble – Both AM -6/64 – 100/1 & 200/1.
• 2016 – Garcia / M Thompson – Both PM -5/65.
• 2015 – Herman – AM -5/65.
• 2014 – McIlroy PM -7/63.
• 2013 – Villegas – PM -6/64.
• 2012 – Love III – AM -6/64.
• 2011 – Levin – AM -3/67.
• 2010 – Connell – PM -5/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 5 – Jordan Spieth.
• 4 – Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Camilo Villegas.
• 3 – Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Luke Donald, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Webb Simpson, Sepp Straka.
• 1 – Rafael Campos, Chris Gotterup, Nick Hardy, Sungjae Im, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Shane Lowry, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Taylor Moore, C.T. Pan, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland.

The Cognizant (nee Honda) Classic has been a case of feast or famine for short price backers here since 2010. Austin Eckroat, Sepp Straka, Matt Jones, Keith Mitchell, Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley, Michael Thompson and Rory Sabbatini have won at 100/1, 125/1, 300/1, 400/1, 300/1, 300/1, 80/1 and 80/1 respectively in 8 of the past 15 renewals. But conversely Camilo Villegas (30/1), Rory McIlroy (9/1), Adam Scott (20/1), Rickie Fowler (18/1), Justin Thomas (12/1), Sungjae Im (35/1) and Chris Kirk (25/1) have been elite (OWGR top 50) short-price winners over the same time span. With a weaker field than we used to see here, the last 5 renewals have been won at 100/1, 25/1, 125/1, 80/1 and 35/1.

It’s worth noting that McIlroy and Villegas won at a time when the World Match Play Championship was played the week before this tournament and both arrived in Florida in great nick after strong efforts in Arizona. Adam Scott, on the other hand, arrived in hot form directly from Los Angeles where he’d played very nicely in finishing runner-up to Bubba Watson. Rickie Fowler had last been seen at TPC Scottsdale where he had finished 4th, powered by a fast finishing -6/65. And Justin Thomas arrived directly from Riviera, where he had landed his first top 10 of 2018. Sungjae Im was a little more under the radar, only cracking the top 10 once in 2020 at The American Express prior to winning this at 35/1 – he was 10th in the betting.

Defending champion Austin Eckroat was in his second season on the PGA Tour and had inbound form of 38th in Mexico, 37th at Torrey Pines, MC at TPC Scottsdale, 25th at PGA West and 42nd at Waialae Country Club where he had been leading after 36 holes. 8th in his last 2023 appearance at Sea Island had been Austin’s first Bermudagrass top 10 on the PGA Tour.

2023 saw Chris Kirk arrive off a MC at TPC Scottsdale, but prior to that he’d started the year on fire finishing 3rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express across consecutive weeks on Bermudagrass-base greens.

With course and conditions at PGA National notoriously difficult, it’s no real surprise therefore to see that Austin Eckroat (10th, 2023) Justin Thomas (9th, 2017), Rickie Fowler (10th, 2013 and 2nd, 2014), Adam Scott (4th, 2015 and 9th, 2014), Padraig Harrington (3 top-5 finishes across 2000, 2006 & 2012), Russell Henley (16th, 2010 as an amateur), Michael Thompson (2nd, 2012), Rory McIlroy (1st, 2011) and Camilo Villegas (9th, 2008) all had a U.S. Open pedigree prior to capturing the title here. Im had no U.S. Open pedigree but had shown that he could definitely grind in Florida with 3rd at Bay Hill and 4th at Copperhead in his rookie season on Tour. Kirk was very similar to Im having shown Florida course grit across Bay Hill (8th 2021 and 5th 2022) plus here at PGA National where he finished 7th in 2022.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:25GMT 24.2.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.