The final leg of the early-season Middle East swing takes us back to Doha for the Qatar Masters, an event and venue that we’ve seen on Tour regularly since the turn of the century with only the 2020 and 2021 renewals being hosted elsewhere.
Many of the players who’ve competed in Ras al Khaimah and Bahrain over the past fortnight have stuck around for this week, with the notable exceptions of the LIV players who return back for the start of their Tour this week.
Last week’s winner and ex-LIV player Laurie Canter is the clear favourite at around 12/1 to record back-to-back victories and what would be a third success since June last year. The Englishman’s closest rivals from a betting perspective include Johannes Veerman, Jorge Campillo, Keita Nakajima and Jordan Smith in a field that rapidly thins out in terms of quality.
Before we move on, having missed last week through illness I’d like to thank everyone who took the time to wish me well either through social media or via email/DM. It was very much appreciated!
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Doha GC. Designer: Harradine, 1996; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,508 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda; Greens: Paspalum, 11’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. This week we return to the Harradine-designed Doha Golf Club which had hosted this event since its inauguration in 1998, until the event moved to Education City in 2020 for 2 renewals before returning in 2022, giving us plenty of course history stats to review.
At 7,508 yards in length, the course has historically favoured longer hitters when conditions are tranquil; wayward drives aren’t punished as severely as other courses on the circuit with relatively thin rough, allowing the bombers to attack more freely. However the exposed layout is particularly susceptible to wind and even the most tranquil of forecasts in the region can still result in a fair breeze blowing over the track at times, which brings the more controlled ball-strikers into the mix.
The par-72 layout is a conventional pair of 9s with the outward 9 measuring 198 yards longer than the inward 9. The par-5s play amongst the easiest of the holes as you might expect with even the 639-yard 9th playing under par generally, however the driveable par-4 16th is also a birdie and eagle opportunity for most of the field.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Qatar Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2024: Rikuyu Hoshino, 45/1; 2023: Sami Valimaki, 80/1; 2022: Ewen Ferguson, 150/1; 2021: Antoine Rozner, 22/1; 2020: Jorge Campillo, 125/1; 2019: Justin Harding, 55/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 70/1; 2017: Jeunghun Wang, 33/1; 2016: Branden Grace, 8/1; 2015: Branden Grace, 25/1; 2014: Sergio Garcia, 8/1; 2013: Chris Wood, 100/1; 2012: Paul Lawrie, 50/1; 2011: Thomas Bjorn, 200/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 66/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Doha region in Qatar is here.
Clear skies and temperatures in the low-70s Fahrenheit will greet the players this week. Wind will be a feature again this week with a 15-20mph fairly common throughout the tournament days, gusting above that at times, with only Friday offering some respite at the time of writing.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 13 winners here at Doha gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024: Rikuyu Hoshino. 299 yards (33rd), 53.6% fairways (33rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 73.7% scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (6th).
2023: Sami Valimaki. 318 yards (7th), 55.4% fairways (38th), 86.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 80.0% scrambling (6th), 1.74 putts per GIR (22nd).
2022: Ewen Ferguson. 297 yards (46th), 57.1% fairways (21st), 72.2% greens in regulation (14th), 65.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (10th).
2019: Justin Harding. 300 yards (31st), 53.6% fairways (20th), 69.4% greens in regulation (50th), 72.7% scrambling (13th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
2018: Eddie Pepperell. 268 yards (77th), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 80.6% greens in regulation (16th), 71.4% scrambling (9th), 1.66 putts per GIR (9th).
2017: Jeunghun Wang. 292 yards (37th), 50% fairways (40th), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 68.8% scrambling (7th), 1.71 putts per GIR (15th).
2016: Branden Grace. 306 yards (6th), 46.4% fairways (44th), 76.4% greens in regulation (19th), 76.5% scrambling (3rd), 1.71 putts per GIR (4th).
2015: Branden Grace. 296 yards (9th), 48.2% fairways (61st), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (23rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2014: Sergio Garcia. 300 yards (5th), 51.8% fairways (54th), 75.0% greens in regulation (32nd), 72.2% scrambling (12th), 1.72 putts per GIR (18th).
2013: Chris Wood. 297 yards (13th), 62.5% fairways (17th), 81.9% greens in regulation (6th), 53.8% scrambling (58th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
2012: Paul Lawrie. 300 yards (9th), 54.8% fairways (23rd), 79.6% greens in regulation (7th), 72.7% scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).
2011: Thomas Bjorn. 288 yards (34th), 42.9% fairways (56th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
2010: Robert Karlsson. 296 yards (15th), 57.1% fairways (49th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 68.8% scrambling (11th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
With the exception of Chris Wood in 2013, scrambling ranks are generally high here at Doha and that makes sense in an event where keeping one’s card as clean as possible is of paramount importance given that birdies aren’t that easy to come by.
The par 3s are the toughest element of the course in my opinion, so picking players with a strong mid-iron game is a positive. This venue is particularly susceptible to the wind, so siding with strong ball-strikers or those with a proven wind/coastal pedigree if the forecast suggests anything other than a flat calm week isn’t a bad move either.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the 4 winners since 2019 all performed similarly from off the tee, complimented by solid approach and tee-to-green stats:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: It’s worth noting that all Qatar Masters winners featured in the analysis below had recorded at least one top-13 finish in their previous 7 starts, and if you isolate the events here at Doha specifically, that can be refined to a top 10 or better.
Last year’s winner Rikuyu Hoshino follows that trend perfectly having finished 12th in Bahrain the week before winning here:
2012: Paul Lawrie: 48/1/27/34/36/69/MC/11/25/46/MC/19/
2011: Thomas Bjorn: MC/MC/23/9/33/60/8
2010: Robert Karlsson: 40/2/MC/25/5/15/22/60/37
A cursory look through the list of winners here screams coastal and links golf, which makes a level of sense given the often windswept nature of the course here at Doha. With a breeze forecast for two or three of the tournament days at least, that’s probably no bad place to start here this week.
For me, some positive Middle East form is one element to look at, as is a smattering of recent form without the need for anything too spectacular. Paspalum-positive players should also shine on these greens and those players who perform well on par 3s – the toughest part of this track as I’ve mentioned above – should excel.
My Final Qatar Masters Tips Are As Follows;
Daniel Hillier 2.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Laurie Canter heads this week’s betting after being gifted the Bahrain Championship on Sunday, however whether he can lift his game again so soon and justify favouritism is debatable.
Of the market leaders, I was closest to backing Jordan Smith who ranked 3rd at Royal Golf Club for GIR and had some eye-catching stats with the putter, ranking 9th for SG Putting on the week. I’d expect the Englishman to go well, however he does have a habit of meandering to a 20th-place finish without really threatening to win and I’ll pass this week.
My preference is start this week’s team with talented Kiwi Daniel Hillier who’s looking to emulate Canter’s feat from last week and secure a second DP World Tour title, having broken his maiden at the 2023 Betfred British Masters in fine style with a sparkling closing round of 66.
The 26 year-old pushed Tyrrell Hatton all the way at the Emirates last month at Rolex Series level, eventually finishing a single shot shy of the Ryder Cup star. 2nd for SG Off the Tee, 6th for SG Tee to Green and 8th for SG Putting were eye-catching stats that correlate nicely with previous contenders here at Doha. Laurie Canter finished 3rd that week and it’s fair to say that form has been well and truly franked after Bahrain last week.
11th for SG Approach in Dubai was also positive and after an almost inevitable missed cut the week after at Al Hamra, Hillier improved on that metric last week, ranking 10th for SG Approach on his way to a solid 24th place finish. A closing round of 65 last week – which started and ended with a bogey – was beaten by just one player in the field and he should be able to tackle this week with confidence and renewed optimism.
16th here on debut in 2023 saw Daniel lead the field for SG Off the Tee and rank 4th for SG Tee to Green; he wasn’t nearly so good from a long game perspective last year, however he gained nearly a stroke per round on these Paspalum greens. If he can marry it all together this week then I fancy he could go very close indeed.
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Scott Jamieson 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
I backed Scott Jamieson here last year at a similar price and given his affinity to the course and some solid recent form I see no reason not to repeat that same bet here 12 months on.
Having made the cut but hardly threatening to do much more last year after opening rounds of 72/71, the Glaswegian excelled over the weekend, carding rounds of 68/65 to finish 3rd and send his each-way backers home happy. That followed an identical finish here the previous October when he led after the first round and again produced a solid weekend to earn himself a lofty finish.
At the age of 41 now, Jamieson is still looking to add to his solitary victory on Tour from a little over 12 years ago, when he won the eventual 36-hole affair that was the Nelson Mandela Championship. Plenty of opportunities have come and gone since that success – 32 top-10s in total and a pair of runner-up finishes included in that time – however perhaps having joined the over-40s club in relatively recent times we’ll see Scott join that growing club of players who eventually find a win after many fallow years.
Jamieson is undoubtedly comfortable in this part of the world, racking up a series of solid finishes in the Middle East over the years with top 10s in Oman, Ras al Khaimah, Abu Dhabi and Dubai (Emirates) to his name over the years. 8th in Ras al Khaimah and 18th last week in Bahrain are two very recent efforts in this part of the world and, like the aforementioned Daniel Hillier, Scott signed off last week with a sparkling round of 65.
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Marcus Armitage 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
At a longer price I’m happy to back Marcus Armitage despite the Englishman missing the cut last week in Bahrain.
A weekend off was hardly a surprise after ‘The Bullet’ came so close to securing a second DP World Tour title the week before, having opened with a blistering round of 63 and keeping eventual winner Alejandro del Rey honest on Sunday by carding a bogey-free round of 68 in a week where his putter was on fire.
For me, tougher tests than that presented by Al Hamra suit the 37 year-old better and with a little breeze in the forecast the burly Salford man should enjoy this week’s test after having the chance to regroup over the weekend.
5th here at Doha in 2022 is Marcus’s only result of note around these parts, however he did also finish 12th in this event at Education City in 2020 which shares agronomy as well as geography to this week’s venue. 9th at Al Hamra in 2022 and three further top-20s in Dubai over the years in decent company suggests he’s comfortable in this part of the world, and with links form always positive around these parts, 2nd at the 2023 Dunhill Links is also positive.
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Last but by no means least, I’m also taking a chance on Marcel Siem who popped up repeatedly on my analysis of this event and I simply cannot let that pass at the price on offer.
6 times a winner at European/DP World Tour level in a career spanning well over two decades and counting, the German has found a new lease of life in recent times, first winning the Hero Indian Open in 2023 for his first title in over eight years, then following that up last year with a play-off victory over Tom McKibbin at the Italian Open to prove that he’s still got what it takes to get over the line.
Granted, none of those victories have come in the Middle East, but five of the six came with winning scores of between 8- and 17-under par and that’s undoubtedly the right ball-park for Doha nowadays with the level of wind dictating which of the extremes we veer towards on any given renewal.
A best finish of 12th here in 2012 hides the fact that he was also 4th heading into the final round back in 2004 before running out of steam. 3rd after day one twice around these parts, he shot middle rounds of 66/68 on his penultimate effort here at Doha to nullify a slow start and if he can get out of the blocks quickly this time around he could well feature throughout.
The Mauritius native gets plenty of practice on Paspalum greens and has proven adept on the surface both at home and at the likes of Ras al Khaimah (7th SG Putting, 2024; 4th SG Putting, 2022). Despite opening his 2025 campaign up with finishes of 58/MC/34, he did sit 10th after day one last week with an opening 68 and gained strokes on all long-game metrics which is rarely the case for the 44 year-old.
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