Cyprus Showdown Tips 2020

I’ll deal with Sami Valimaki’s effort last week further down my preview, however for now let’s get straight to the task at hand as we stay in Cyprus for another week. The course is identical to last week however the format isn’t, so let’s get this out of the way before we go any further.

Event Format. For the first 2 days this week it will be as if nothing has changed. 105 players will compete in 36 holes of regular strokeplay competition with a regular leaderboard.

After 36 holes it all changes though, with a cut being made and the top 32 players and ties making it through to the weekend. All scores are reset at this point so there’s absolutely no advantage to having been top of the leaderboard or in a tie for 32^nd place.

After Saturday’s round there’ll be another cut, this time to the top 16 players and ties from Saturday’s scores only. These 16 players will then play on Sunday with their scores again reset, meaning that it is indeed a single round shootout to see who will win the title, with in effect a 16-way tie for the lead going into the final day.

The format of this week’s event has created an odd-looking outright market, with the bookmakers clearly unsure exactly how to price it up. The in-play markets will be less volatile over the first 2 days for those players who are comfortably inside the top-32, before the weekend’s fun and games as the scores are reset each day. Sunday, in contrast, will be extremely volatile from a betting perspective.

As we’ve seen in the past with hybrid tournaments such as the World Super 6 and Belgian Knockout, there are different ways to play these events from a betting perspective with both outright market and 36-hole leader markets available here, despite this week being strokeplay and not matchplay like those two events mentioned. Given the vagaries of the outright market, firms are going from anything up to 30/1 the field this week, with Thomas Detry heading the list with most bookmakers.

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PGA National Cyprus, Aphrodite Hills Resort, Paphos, Cyprus. Designer: Cabell Robinson, 2002 with 2017 updates; Course Type: Resort, Coastal; Par: 71; Length: 6,956 yards; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda; Greens: 007 Bentgrass.

Course Overview. As Greek legend would have it, this week’s track takes us to the place where Aphrodite, the Greek goddess of love, is said to have emerged from the sea at her birth. An 18-hole Championship golf course was named after her accordingly on the outskirts of Paphos, and it promises to be a beautiful backdrop for this week’s event with stunning views of the Mediterranean on a number of holes.

Features including horseshoe greens, cross bunkers and ponds at holes 10 and 18; an 18th century kiln and an old olive press in the middle of the fairways on holes 1 and 8 add character to the course, and shots over a canyon on the 3^rd hole and a ravine on the 7^th add further intrigue.

Originally opened in 2002, the sub-7,000 yard layout was renovated in 2017 to USGA standards and now boasts the PGA’s endorsement, becoming PGA National Cyprus. An exposed, coastal track designed for the tourist trade with wide fairways and large, true bentgrass greens, we should see plenty of birdies once again this week.

3 of the par-5s measure between 536 to 556 yards with only the 627 yard 3^rd presenting too much of a challenge to the longer hitters, and with 2 of the par-4s measuring around 360 yards with the option to make them driveable for all, attacking play is likely to be the order of the day with good weather forecast again this week.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Cyprus Open, however as mentioned above, last week was the first European Tour event held at the venue: Current Form

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here. Not quite the forecast we saw last week, however not far off. Thursday and Friday will be warm, dry and sunny with temperatures nudging 80 Fahrenheit, before the weekend brings the chance of afternoon thunderstorms with winds picking up later in the day to 10-15 mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Last week’s event gave us our first look at the course and whilst there were some challenging elements to the track, 20-under was reached by 2 players and red numbers were definitely the order of the day. Each of the top-5 finishers scored 11-under or better on the 16 par-5s and 49 eagles were made on the 6^th, 10^th and 18^th holes combined, with only the longer 3^rd hole offering much defence in that respect.

The bulk of the field hit between 40-60% of fairways, however greens weren’t difficult to hit from there with 80% GIR or higher commonplace amongst the higher finishers. Callum Shinkwin ultimately putted his way to success on Sunday, ranking 2^nd overall for putts per GIR and 3^rd for SG Putting on the week.

As we saw last week, the course is coastal and some players undoubtedly play some of their best golf with the sea in close proximity. With that, as is often the case, the layout is exposed and susceptible to the elements and the breeze will pick up a little in the afternoons to present a little more of a challenge.

Greens are relatively new, re-laid as part of the 2017 renovation here, and are USGA standard 007 Bentgrass. Large and forgiving in style to cater for the tourist trade primarily, these should produce a lot of birdies to those finding the surfaces with regularity once again this week.

In events such as the World Super 6 and Belgian Knockout, I’ve settled previously on a strategy of backing a smaller pool of players in both the 36-hole and outright markets to save disappointment if a selection wins one and not the other, and I’ll adopt the same approach again here this week.

My final selections are as follows:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 07:00 GMT 3.11.20 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.