Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Danish Golf Championship Tips 2024

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Last week’s change of venue at the Czech Masters produced a surprise winner in the shape of David Ravetto whose 6 missed cuts in his last 7 starts explains the 250/1 quotes available last Monday. A win earlier in the year on the Sunshine Tour off similarly poor form did offer some vague clues that the Frenchman was capable of finding top form when everything clicks though, and it will be interesting to see if he can add to his tally over the next few years.

On to this week we go and it’s a similar conundrum that we face to last week. Formerly called the ‘Made In Denmark’ and latterly the ‘Made In Himmerland’, we’re off to pastures new for Denmark’s premier golf tournament with Lübker Golf Resort making its debut on the DP World Tour and the event being renamed as simply the ‘Danish Golf Championship’.

Both of the Hojgaard twins are in attendance this week with most bookies reluctant to split the pair at around 12/1, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tom McKibbin, Bernd Wiesberger and Richard Mansell follow in the betting in this 156-man field that soon thins out in terms of quality.

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Course Overview. Lübker Golf Resort on the outskirts of Aarhus in the east of Denmark is our venue this year and the DP World Tour gets its first look at the Trent Jones Jr design which opened in 2008 this week. The resort has hosted lower level golf over the years including the 2011 ECCO Tour Championship and 4 Nordic Golf League events, however for most of this week’s attendees this will be their first competitive rounds around these parts.

Described as a parkland, heathland resort course, there are 3 sets of 9 holes here each with unique characteristics, namely ‘Sand’, ‘Sky’ and ‘Forest’, with this week’s layout combines the two nines that make up Sand and Sky.

The combined card adds up to 7,026 yards for its par of 71, with the Sky 9 featuring more trees and water whereas the Sand 9 is more exposed and more akin to its heathland description. Bunkering is extensive on both nines, both flanking many of the fairways and protecting the greens, however the challenge of this course would seem to be finding the correct parts of the tricky, undulating Bentgrass putting surfaces to give yourself scoring chances.

Winning totals from the events held here range from 202 strokes to 213 over 54 holes, suggesting that scoring doesn’t tend to get out of control around these parts.

danish golf championship tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Danish Golf Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As previously noted, we’re at a new course for the event so event history stats should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form Stats

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Rasmus Hojgaard, 22/1; 2022: Oliver Wilson, 200/1; 2021: Bernd Wiesberger, 20/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 70/1; 2018: Matt Wallace, 40/1; 2017, Julian Suri: 60/1; 2016: Thomas Pieters: 12/1; 2015: David Horsey, 80/1; 2014: Marc Warren, 30/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A wet and breezy first two days will give way to something slightly better over the weekend with Sunday promising sunny spells and temperatures climbing to 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoon.

15mph wind with gusts in excess of 25mph will keep a lid on scoring over the first two days before it drops away a little over the weekend.

Event Winners – Incoming Form: Marc Warren arrived in Denmark 10 years ago in decent form having finished 3rd at the Scottish Open, 39th at the Open Championship then a creditable 15th at the US PGA Championship. He’d been putting consistently well for a few weeks, ranking inside the top-20 for putts per GIR on each of his last 4 starts and found enough greens on the week in windy conditions to compile a winning score.

David Horsey’s form the year after was less obvious having recorded 4 top-20 finishes in the season, however he too had been putting reasonably well, recording 3 top-20 putting performances out of his most recent 4 cuts made.

Thomas Pieters was 2nd favourite for this title 7 years ago having arrived after finishes of 4th at The Olympics and 2nd the week before when defending in the Czech Republic and his chance was a fairly obvious one, whereas Julian Suri was still relatively under-the-radar as he was still playing predominantly on the Challenge Tour, however a runner-up finish in Portugal and 16th on his previous start – where he was 4th going into the final day – suggested that he wasn’t far away from winning at this kind of level.

Matt Wallace arrived in Denmark in 2018 following a disappointing 36th in the Czech Republic when chasing an unlikely Ryder Cup qualification. With his only remaining chance to win and impress an on-looking Thomas Bjorn, the Englishman did just that by birdieing 5 of his final 6 holes to make a 4-man play-off which he won with birdies at both the first and second extra hole. Wallace had already won the Indian Open and BMW International Open in the season.

For the first of his wins, Bernd Wiesberger arrived with some steadily improving overall form to his name, having started the 2019 season slowly. 23rd at the Indian Open contained some brief glimpses of improvement before a 68/68 weekend in China had registered his best finish of the year. A final round 76 on his last start at the British Masters masked his overall progression and 70/1 was the reward for those who sided with the Austrian. The Covid-delayed defence of his title in 2021 by the Austrian came off of fairly non-descript form.

Oliver Wilson’s win in 2022 came with a season’s best finish of 12th in Qatar 5 months prior, however there was at least a spark of form the previous week when firing a 2nd round 64 at Crans-sur-Sierre and taking just 109 putts over the course of the week:

Rasmus Hojgaard’s win at Himmerland last year was frustrating for punters given that he’d withdrawn from the BMW International Open on his last start with a rib injury and that same ailment kept him out of the previous week’s British Masters too. The underlying form was undoubtedly there though with 3rd at the KLM Open 6 weeks before his best finish of the season to that point:

  • 2023: Rasmus Hojgaard: 7/MC/38/20/6/16/MC/47/MC/3/50/WD
  • 2022: Oliver Wilson: 42/MC/64/MC/MC/MC/70/MC/41/MC/33/44
  • 2021: Bernd Wiesberger: 36/25/6/53/59/31/MC/42/MC/40/34/MC
  • 2019: Bernd Wiesberger: MC/MC/51/42/MC/MC/MC/55/MC/23/14/70
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: MC/3/20/51/MC/1/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/36
  • 2017: Julian Suri: 31/1/3/23/11/MC/27/23/MC/16
  • 2016: Thomas Pieters: 28/26/MC/27/16/29/30/86/4/2
  • 2015: David Horsey: 42/15/MC/MC/38/11/MC/MC/66/33
  • 2014: Marc Warren: 33/28/16/MC/29/MC/26/3/29/15

Event Form Of Winners: In terms of event form here in Denmark, Oliver Wilson and Matt Wallace both had some positive history and Bernd Wiesberger won at Himmerland either side of the Covid break:

  • 2023: Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/MC/MC/22
  • 2022: Oliver Wilson: 26/60/4
  • 2021: Bernd Wiesberger: 1
  • 2019: Bernd Wiesberger: Debut
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: 6
  • 2017: Julian Suri: Debut
  • 2016: Thomas Pieters: 35
  • 2015: David Horsey: 39
  • 2014: Marc Warren: Debut

As per last week, we’re largely playing a guessing game with regards how this setup will play and which players it may favour. As with the previous Danish venues this isn’t a long course though and strategic play combined with accurate approach shots could prove to be the key ingredient.

For me a cautious approach is the name of the game with just 3 selections in this week’s team. My selections are as follows:

Bernd Wiesberger 3pts EW 20/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Betfred

The bookies seem reluctant to split either of the Hojgaard’s this week at the top of the market, however with Rasmus defending and Nicolai’s record in this event being underwhelming to say the least, combined with the pressure and expectation of this home fixture I’m happy to leave the pair alone this week.

Tom McKibbin will have his backers despite incoming form of MC/66/MC, as will Thorbjorn Olesen who steps back down to regular DP World Tour level having impressed at times on the PGA Tour this year, however at the same kind of price point my preference is to back Bernd Wiesberger.

At his best the Vienna man is head and shoulders above the vast majority of this week’s field – 8 wins at DP World Tour level, 2 of which at Rolex Series level are testament to that – and there’s enough to suggest that he’s approaching winning form once again having settled back into life at this level following his time on the LIV circuit.

A string of solid if unspectacular performances littered his early 2024 outings before he finished 2nd at the challenging European Open in June, and should this week’s task prove to be on the more difficult side then I can see the 38 year-old going one better here in an event that he’s already won twice.

7th at the KLM Open followed that effort in Germany and he was back on form last week in the Czech Republic after more than a month off, eventually finishing 6th and hitting just shy of 85% of Greens In Regulation.

Statistically Bernd is as close to a full house as we’re likely to get this week: 5th for the season for SG Approach, 3rd for SG Tee to Green and 3rd for GIR stick out like a sore thumb for this week’s task; add to that 9th for Sand Saves given the extensive bunkering here and 3rd for Scrambling given the challenge around the greens and Wiesberger is undoubtedly a very good fit.

Twice a winner at Himmerland in 2019 and 2021 is the icing on the cake for me and I’m expecting a seriously contending performance from the Austrian this week. RESULT: T19

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 80/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

Although there’s a lot of guesswork required this week, my general feeling is that approach play could be key this week and few flush their irons better than Dan Bradbury when he’s on his game.

4th for SG Approach on Tour in a season where he’s missed almost twice as many more cuts than he’s made is impressive, and in the past 10 months he’s led the field on that metric on 3 occasions and ranked second twice which makes him an interesting proposition this week. Last week in Prague was another case in point with the Wakefield man topping the SG Approach charts on his way to a 23rd place finish and more of the same this week could see him in the mix if he can find any kind of form with the putter.

Having won the Joburg Open on what was just his 6th professional start at the end of 2022, Dan hasn’t quite pushed on at the speed that many observers of the professional game may have anticipated. However with less than 50 career starts to his name at the top level he’s undoubtedly still learning his trade, and this week’s change of venue levels the playing field considerably compared to many of his more experienced peers.

10th at the Italian Open at the end of June on another new course to the Tour created as a fusion of two sets of nine holes is an interesting best effort for 2024 for the 25 year-old, and further improvement this week isn’t out of the question. RESULT: T63

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Francesco Laporta 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Finally, the promise of some reasonably challenging conditions to start the event leads me to Francesco Laporta who’s proven at lower levels that he’s well capable of digging in when scoring isn’t particularly easy.

Three career wins at Challenge Tour level since 2019 have come at -14, -6 and -7 to suggest that he thrives when pars are the key currency rather than birdies. Twice a runner-up in Dubai is the closest that the 33 year-old has come to breaking through at DP World Tour level, however 6th at the 2021 BMW PGA Championship was his most prominent performance to the wider audience, as he led into the final day at Wentworth before losing out in the end to Billy Horschel with a fairly flat final round of 70.

How much relevance either Wentworth or those Dubai tracks hold to this week remains to be seen, however hints of heathland correlates to the former and the exposed ‘Sand’ 9 seems to align with the latter, so perhaps Laporta will like what he sees here this week.

Denmark has been a fairly positive country for the Italian with 15th and 5th at the Challenge Tour’s events held in this part of the world in 2017 and 2019; 4th at the 2022 Made In Himmerland could have been even better as Francesco opened with a pair of 64s and led into Sunday before shooting 71 and falling away.

50th at the PGA Tour co-sanctioned ISCO Championship last month could have been far better as he sat 4th after 18 holes and 9th after 54, and he impressed again last week in the Czech Republic, eventually finishing 12th. 83% GIR was the key driver of his performance in Prague and more of the same this week could see him in the mix here at a long price. RESULT: T27

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:05BST 19.8.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.