Paul Williams

Paul Williams' D+D Real Czech Masters Tips 2023

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Dan Brown cracked the code for us last week at Galgorm Castle, returning us a 66/1 winner as the DP World Tour returned from its mid-season break. The eventual 5-shot victory looks a little more straightforward than it felt at the time, with the lead having been trimmed to 2 strokes before he pulled away on the final few holes in impressive fashion. I suspect that we’ll see plenty more from the Englishman at the top of leaderboards in the months and years to come.

On to this week we go and in stark contrast to last year’s event where the DP World Tour just about managed to scrape together 132 players for this event, a full field of 156 will be in attendance this week with some interesting names teeing it up here in the Czech Republic.

Heading affairs this week is Shane Lowry at a general 11/1 who’s clearly not resting on his laurels despite being all but guaranteed a Captain’s Pick for next month’s Ryder Cup. The Irishman is joined by emerging talent Ludvig Aberg (12/1) who will also be looking to impress Luke Donald this week, as well as fellow Team Europe hopefuls Adrian Meronk, Robert MacIntyre and the Hojgaard twins.

Belgium’s latest superstar in the making Adrien Dumont de Chassart (25/1) is making his first DP World Tour start since turning professional earlier this year and is sure to attract a lot of attention having already won on the Korn Ferry Tour on his pro debut in June.

Albatross Golf Resort, Prague, Czech Republic. Designer: Keith Preston, 2010; Par: 72; Length: 7,468 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass/Fescue; Rough: Rye; Greens: A1/A4 Bentgrass; Stimp: 12ft.

Course Overview. The course, which is located on the South-Western outskirts of Prague at slight altitude, is a 7,468 yard, par 72 with exposed fairways and large bentgrass greens designed to cater for the tourist trade first and foremost, with 4 or 5 teeing areas on each hole.

Fairways are fairly generous and the main challenges with the driver are carefully placed bunkers. The bunkering has been reworked in the past few years with the objective to ‘improve visibility, interest and character’. Visually the bunkering looks more prominent and in some places bunkers have been removed completely.

The first and 12th are par-5s that present scoring opportunities to the bombers who can get their drives away; back-to-back par-5s around the turn are a little longer at over 600 yards each and the par-4 6th can be played from the forward tee which brings the front edge of the green into play with the driver. That hole played the 5th easiest to par last year behind the 4 par-5s.

Other holes on the course demand a little respect and this is a layout where a variety of playing styles may well feature at the top of Sunday’s leaderboard, with water in play on 7 holes and more substantially towards the end of the 18.

czech masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s D+D Real Czech Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2022: Max Kieffer, 55/1; 2021: Johannes Veerman, 25/1; 2019: Thomas Pieters, 20/1; 2018: Andrea Pavan, 50/1; 2017: Haydn Porteous, 66/1; 2016: Paul Peterson, 250/1; 2015: Thomas Pieters, 80/1; 2014: Jamie Donaldson, 12/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Prague is here.

Thursday looks to be the final day of recent hot and settled weather in the Czech Republic with a breakdown in conditions likely from Friday onwards. More substantial thunderstorms and heavy rain is possible on Saturday and into Sunday as temperatures dip from the low 90s to low 70s Fahrenheit.

The wind will be generally light at sub-10 mph, however it could pick up around any storm systems.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2022: Max Kieffer (-16, 54 holes). 292 yards (49th), 66.7% fairways (25th), 77.8% greens in regulation (25th), 83.3% scrambling (5th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2021: Johannes Veerman (-15). 308 yards (17th), 62.5% fairways (29th), 73.6% greens in regulation (22nd), 73.7% scrambling (10th), 1.71 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2019: Thomas Pieters (-19). 318 yards (1st), 58.9% fairways (54th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 75% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2018: Andrea Pavan (-22). 297 yards (41st), 64.3% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (6th), 42.9% scrambling (36th), 1.52 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2017: Haydn Porteous (-13). 304 yards (9th), 66.1% fairways (25th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 30.8% scrambling (51st), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2016: Paul Peterson (-15). 287 yards (40th), 82.1% fairways (3rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (25th), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2015: Thomas Pieters (-20). 321 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (27th), 75.0% greens in regulation (22nd), 72.2% scrambling (10th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2014: Jamie Donaldson (-14). 291 yards (24th), 64.3% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 42.9% scrambling (65th), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th).

An exposed track with fairly wide fairways and large greens doesn’t give away many clues with even the more wayward players hitting reasonable numbers on both counts, however to score here a tidy long game which maximises GIR is probably key.

Despite not being the longest of players from off the tee, only one player bettered Paul Peterson’s 8-under total on the par 5s here in 2016 and he made a total of 21 birdies and just 6 bogeys on the week overall. Similarly Thomas Pieters and Jamie Donaldson both excelled on the par 5s when they won – both led the field in that respect in their winning efforts – and attacking the birdie holes whilst defending on the trickier par 4s and the tougher par 3s looks the best method to getting into contention around these parts.

2017 was a bit trickier with cooler temperatures which led to Haydn Porteous winning with a 6-under total on the par-5s and a total of 21 birdies and an eagle, offset by 8 bogeys and a double for his -13 overall total. More scoreable conditions in 2018 restored order with Andrea Pavan’s 11-under for the par-5s beaten by just one player on the week.

Thomas Pieters’ second win here in 2019 saw him card an 8-under total on the par-5s, and on average everyone who finished in the top-5 plus ties played the long holes in a little better than 9-under par. After a break for Covid, 2021 winner Johannes Veerman and Max Kieffer last year were also amongst the better performers on the par 5s at 9-under on the week, and with the potential for wet weather during the event which would make the course play longer than the card suggests, mastering those long holes may be critical again this year.

SG Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, Max Kieffer’s win last year came courtesy of a field-leading performance on and around the greens to prove that there are different ways to succeed around these parts. Prior to that, the long games of Johannes Veerman and Thomas Pieters had proven critical:

  • 2022: Max Kieffer. T: 49th; A: 34th; T2G: 11th; ATG: 1st; P: 1st
  • 2021: Johannes Veerman. T: 6th; A: 12th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 12th; P: 16th
  • 2019: Thomas Pieters. T: 4th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 56th; P: 52nd

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form. Jamie Donaldson arrived at the Albatross Golf Resort 8 years ago with 4-event form of MC/MC/37/24, albeit the final 3 events were Major/WGC/Major; Thomas Pieters was similarly non-descript with incoming form of MC/60/33/35 before winning here and then again on his next start in Holland a fortnight later.

250/1 shock winner Paul Peterson was playing on the Asian Tour predominantly alongside the occasional co-sanctioned event and although he’d recorded a 3rd place finish the previous month at the Queen’s Cup, his efforts when competing at this level were far from encouraging.

Of the other winners, the two victors in 2017 and 2018 had more tangible form: Haydn Porteous had finished 11th at Sun City on the Sunshine Tour and 6th in Denmark the week before, however with Total Driving ranks of 8th and 4th from those two outings, it was fairly clear that his long game was pretty sharp. Similarly Andrea Pavan had finished 14th in Scotland then 6th the week before in Sweden before securing his first European Tour title, pounding greens in regulation both times.

Thomas Pieters arrived here in 2019 with fairly mediocre form for a player who was best priced at 20/1. 20th at the Scottish Open on his penultimate start had been his best finish since March of that year, and 9th for SG Off the Tee and 15th for SG Tee to Green was a positive sign ahead of a return to a track he clearly enjoys.

2021 winner Johannes Veerman hadn’t played since The Open 5 weeks before, finishing in a tie for 46th, flashing a little bit of form with a 2nd round 68 in elite company. 3rd at the Irish Open and 8th at the Scottish Open prior to that ensured that the bookies had his card marked though, eventually returning 25/1 to his backers.

Finally, last year’s winner Max Kieffer had hinted at some form when finishing 7th at the Volvo Mixed a couple of months before, and although his finishes following that were fairly mid-division, 6th to halfway at the BMW International Open and 13th after 36 holes at a classy Scottish Open renewal offered some encouragement:

  • 2022: Max Kieffer: MC/9/47/MC/40/14/MC/7/26/30/30/57
  • 2021: Johannes Veerman: MC/45/70/MC/58/MC/MC/3/8/46
  • 2019: Thomas Pieters: MC/41/23/23/33/MC/MC/MC/20/67
  • 2018: Andrea Pavan: 9/MC/52/MC/23/56/56/MC/14/6
  • 2017: Haydn Porteous: MC/MC/38/MC/32/36/MC/11/17/6
  • 2016: Paul Peterson: 25/48/35/73/50/MC/59/3/22/MC
  • 2015: Thomas Pieters: 18/33/MC/MC/24/39/WD/60/33/35
  • 2014: Jamie Donaldson: MC/38/30/MC/5/5/MC/MC/37/24

Course Form. Thomas Pieters broke a string of results where eventual winners had very little positive course form to speak of when he won here at Albatross for the second time in 2019. Johannes Veerman restored the trend in 2021 though and Max Kieffer’s course form coming into this last year wasn’t exactly leaping off the page either:

  • 2023: Max Kieffer: 68/29
  • 2022: Johannes Veerman: MC
  • 2019: Thomas Pieters: MC/1/2/66/9
  • 2018: Andrea Pavan: 39/MC
  • 2017: Haydn Porteous: 60/MC
  • 2016: Paul Peterson: MC
  • 2015: Thomas Pieters: MC
  • 2014: Jamie Donaldson: Debut

With 4 attackable par-5s and a potentially driveable par-4, this course sets up well for powerful players, however Paul Peterson proved in 2016 that there’s more than one way to navigate successfully around the Albatross. The promise of a breakdown in the weather as the weekend approaches might swing the pendulum a little towards the more aggressive players though for this year’s renewal.

My selections are as follows:

Nicolai Hojgaard 2.5pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Whilst automatic qualification for Team Europe may be out of reach for many of this week’s attendees bar a minor miracle, impressing onlooking captain Luke Donald is still a distinct possibility and a number of those who sit outside the top 6 are in attendance this week.

Bookmakers make Justin Rose and Shane Lowry a shoe-in to be included in the team heading to Rome next month and Robert MacIntyre currently holds the last qualification place through the European points list, albeit a little precariously it has to be said.

Sepp Straka is a 1/4 shot to make the team from 7th place in the World points list, which means the real battleground is between the likes of Adrian Meronk, Ludvig Aberg and the Hojgaard brothers, with Nicolai Hojgaard my preference to put the kind of week together here that will put him to the front of Luke’s mind.

With his breakthrough DP World Tour victory coming at the Marco Simone just over 2 years ago, Nicolai has a stronger case than most from the outset. A second success followed in Ras al Khaimah last February and a third win for the talented Dane isn’t likely to be fair away given what we’ve seen of him lately.

21st at the PGA Tour’s Rocket Mortgage Classic is better form than a fair chunk of this week’s field can event get remotely close to in relative terms, however it’s his missed cut the following week at the Made in Himmerland which might ultimately hold the key to any impending success. Twin brother Rasmus was the victor that week on home soil, a success that was celebrated on the 72nd hole by the brothers and one which Nicolai has stated as massive inspiration for him to knuckle down and win again this side of the Ryder Cup.

6th at the Scottish Open was evidence of that new resolve at a far higher standard than this week’s task, and he followed that up with a solid 23rd at The Open for his best career Major finish thus far. 14th last time out at the Wyndham Championship simply rubber-stamps his case in my view.

In terms of his fit for this week’s task, 2nd for SG Off the Tee and 3rd for SG Tee to Green from his DP World Tour efforts this year are an ideal match for the Albatross, with his power coming to the fore should forecast rain soften the course as the weekend approaches. 4th for SG Putting last time out at the Wyndham is encouraging when it comes to converting on the greens and his 17th place finish here on debut 2 years ago, which preceded that aforementioned maiden victory in Rome, seals the deal for me. RESULT: 3rd

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Antoine Rozner 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Favourite Shane Lowry is difficult to oppose with any conviction, however after a couple of weeks off and the Irish Open and his BMW PGA Championship defence on the horizon, this may be more of a build-up to him peaking in September than all-out attack.

Ludvig Aberg is an undoubted talent who will hoover up silverware before too long and has the game to suit this week’s task, however 12/1 is mighty skinny for a player with huge expectation heaped on his shoulders on course debut.

Adrien Dumont De Chassart will grab a lot of attention this week given his recent Korn Ferry exploits, however all the focus on Ryder Cup picks and the emerging stars has left the likes of Antoine Rozner and others available at a very backable each-way prices.

Wins at the 2020 Golf in Dubai Championship, the 2021 Qatar Masters, and last year’s Mauritius Open have elevated the Frenchman to a level above many of his regular DP World Tour peers, and notching a fourth victory here this week isn’t out of the question given that he finished 13th here on debut 12 months ago when arriving in far patchier form than this time around. 1st for SG Approach and 1st for SG Tee to Green suggests he took to the course like a duck to water and it was only a flat week with the putter that stopped him from truly contending 12 months ago.

Since winning his aforementioned title in Mauritius last December, the 30 year-old has missed just one cut and arrives here on a streak of 11 consecutive weekends played. 3rd at the SDC Championship was the best finish in that stretch, however his 20th last time out at The Open, where he sat in 4th place heading into Sunday and putted much better than we’d seen for some time, is far more tangible form. RESULT: T22

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Thriston Lawrence 1pt EW 70/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Another mid-priced player whose odds seem a little over-inflated this week is Thriston Lawrence.

Like Rozner, Lawrence has become a multiple winner on the DP World Tour in a relatively short space of time – in fact with 4 victories since November 2021, he’s challenging those at the very top of the game in terms of conversion over the past 2 years, albeit at a lower level I grant you.

Wins at the Joburg Open, Omega European Masters, South African Open and BMW International Open have all come on courses with varying degrees of altitude to contend with, with that most recent success in Munich most comparable to this week’s task. He clearly gets the maths and clearly feels comfortable when calculations are required, a fact that’s reinforced by his 8th place finish here on debut 12 months ago.

The 26 year-old will be defending his Omega European Masters title next week at Crans-sur-Sierre and that’s something I like when it comes to both biorhythms and the fact that any pressure associated with the defence can result in a more relaxed player mentally the week before. Lawrence has already achieved that feat in reverse when capturing the SA Open title the week after defending the Joburg Open last year; perhaps we’ll see the opposite this time around.

74th at The Open on his penultimate start doesn’t tell the whole story as the South African sat in 11th place heading into the weekend after opening with rounds of 71/70. After 3 weeks rest he finished 12th last week on the Sunshine Tour, brushing off a rusty opening round of 76 to record a closing 36-hole total that was beaten only by eventual winner Malcolm Mitchell. RESULT: MC

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Alexander Levy 1pt EW 190/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I’ll complete this week’s team of 4 players with a speculative punt on Alex Levy.

If you’ve been reading my ramblings on here for long enough then you’ll know that I’ve always had a soft spot for the amiable Frenchman and I’ve even managed to pick the odd win up from him over the years, alongside the odd painful defeat.

In truth though, there’s been precious little to get excited about over the past few years with a series of injuries setting him back, most notably a back issue that’s taken significant time to heal.

Encouragingly though, having played just 4 times in 2022 and being out of action after withdrawing from the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February, the 33 year-old has regained his fitness and slowly but surely with it has come some improvement in form.

50th in Abu Dhabi having sat in 4th place at the halfway point was probably to be expected after nearly 12 months off, however 6 consecutive cuts made since the Porsche European Open in June shows some promise and included in that came his first top 10 finish since the summer of 2021, finishing 9th at the PGA Tour co-sanctioned Barbasol Championship.

A 63 to open at the Barracuda Championship the following week couldn’t be capitalised upon and the 5-time DP World Tour winner drifted to 50th place by Sunday, however there are positive signs that encourage an investment at the price on offer.

Two of Levy’s five wins have come at weather-reduced affairs and with last year’s event here ending up as 54-holes following a similar weather forecast to this, Levy will be better equipped to deal with any delays than most.

18th here in Prague on his one and only start at the Albatross is solid enough and came after a stretch of 4 straight missed cuts and 8 weekends off in his last 9. 4 years on and there’s optimism that he can improve on that and potentially sneak an each-way place at a healthy price. RESULT: T56

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:30BST 21.8.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.