Paul Williams

Paul Williams' D+D REAL Czech Masters Tips 2024

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The DP World Tour returns this week after its short break around the Olympics as we head into a good stretch of events over the next few months that will take us up to the Tour’s new ‘Play-Offs’ to complete the season in the Middle East in November.

With the likes of the British Masters, Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship yet to come, this week and next serve as low-key hors d’oeuvres ahead of a packed September, with firstly the Czech Masters this week followed by the Danish Golf Championship next week, which replaces the more familiar Made in Himmerland tournament.

Tom McKibbin heads the field of 156 from a betting perspective this week at a general 16/1, with Bernd Wiesberger and Richard Mansell rating as 22/1 shots at the time of writing. A whole host of players follow in the 25/1 to 33/1 bracket in what looks to be a truly wide open affair.

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Course Overview. Having spent 9 renewals at the Albatross course to the south-west of Prague, we move to pastures new this year and the PGA National OAKS course a few miles to the east.

The Albatross was a long par 72 that played almost 7,500 yards from its tips, and the OAKS course trumps that at 7,592 yards for the same par for this week’s event, although organisers do have scope to move tee boxes up if they see fit.

The Kyle Phillips design was partially opened in 2019 and completed in 2020, featuring a mix of loosely tree-lined holes alongside more exposed ones.

With Phillips courses tending to either be modern links or having linksy features, it’s no surprise to see extensive bunkering and long, wispy fescue providing the bulk of the challenge of this course, with large, multi-tier 007 Bentgrass putting surfaces also offering some resistance to the professionals.

Alongside Phillips’ most famous creation Kingsbarns which features each year at the Alfred Dunhill Links, we’ve also seen his designs at Bernardus Golf and Hilversumche over the years in the Netherlands, Dundonald Links (2017 Scottish Open), Verdura (2017 & 2018 Sicilian Open) and Yas Links (2023 Abu Dhabi Championship), so there are a few clues out there as to how this might play.

czech masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s D+D Real Czech Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, we’re moving to a new venue this year so previous event results should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Todd Clements, 400/1; 2022: Max Kieffer, 55/1; 2021: Johannes Veerman, 25/1; 2019: Thomas Pieters, 20/1; 2018: Andrea Pavan, 50/1; 2017: Haydn Porteous, 66/1; 2016: Paul Peterson, 250/1; 2015: Thomas Pieters, 80/1; 2014: Jamie Donaldson, 12/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Prague is here.

Friday looks to be the final day of recent hot and settled weather in the Czech Republic with a breakdown in conditions likely from Friday night onwards. More substantial rain is possible on as temperatures dip from the high 80s to low 70s Fahrenheit. The wind will be generally light at sub-10 mph, however it could pick up around any storm systems.

Incoming Form. Jamie Donaldson arrived at the Albatross Golf Resort 10 years ago with 4-event form of MC/MC/37/24, albeit the final 3 events were Major/WGC/Major; Thomas Pieters was similarly non-descript with incoming form of MC/60/33/35 before winning here and then again on his next start in Holland a fortnight later.

250/1 shock winner Paul Peterson was playing on the Asian Tour predominantly alongside the occasional co-sanctioned event and although he’d recorded a 3rd place finish the previous month at the Queen’s Cup, his efforts when competing at this level were far from encouraging.

Of the other winners, the two victors in 2017 and 2018 had more tangible form: Haydn Porteous had finished 11th at Sun City on the Sunshine Tour and 6th in Denmark the week before, however with Total Driving ranks of 8th and 4th from those two outings, it was fairly clear that his long game was pretty sharp. Similarly Andrea Pavan had finished 14th in Scotland then 6th the week before in Sweden before securing his first European Tour title, pounding greens in regulation both times.

Thomas Pieters arrived here in 2019 with fairly mediocre form for a player who was best priced at 20/1. 20th at the Scottish Open on his penultimate start had been his best finish since March of that year, and 9th for SG Off the Tee and 15th for SG Tee to Green was a positive sign ahead of a return to a track he clearly enjoys.

2021 winner Johannes Veerman hadn’t played since The Open 5 weeks before, finishing in a tie for 46th, flashing a little bit of form with a 2nd round 68 in elite company. 3rd at the Irish Open and 8th at the Scottish Open prior to that ensured that the bookies had his card marked though, eventually returning 25/1 to his backers.

2022 winner Max Kieffer had hinted at some form when finishing 7th at the Volvo Mixed a couple of months before, and although his finishes following that were fairly mid-division, 6th to halfway at the BMW International Open and 13th after 36 holes at a classy Scottish Open renewal offered some encouragement.

Finally, last year’s winner Todd Clements had the incoming form befitting of a 400/1 shot with no top-20s to his name in the season to that point. 68 to open on his last start was the vaguest of hints that he was finding some form, although a tie for 46th and missing out on the final day at Galgorm Castle still meant that the Englishman was hard to find:

  • 2023: Todd Clements: MC/MC/MC/26/33/21/MC/MC/MC/62/MC/46
  • 2022: Max Kieffer: MC/9/47/MC/40/14/MC/7/26/30/30/57
  • 2021: Johannes Veerman: MC/45/70/MC/58/MC/MC/3/8/46
  • 2019: Thomas Pieters: MC/41/23/23/33/MC/MC/MC/20/67
  • 2018: Andrea Pavan: 9/MC/52/MC/23/56/56/MC/14/6
  • 2017: Haydn Porteous: MC/MC/38/MC/32/36/MC/11/17/6
  • 2016: Paul Peterson: 25/48/35/73/50/MC/59/3/22/MC
  • 2015: Thomas Pieters: 18/33/MC/MC/24/39/WD/60/33/35
  • 2014: Jamie Donaldson: MC/38/30/MC/5/5/MC/MC/37/24

Event Form. Thomas Pieters broke a string of results where eventual winners had very little positive event form to speak of when he won at the Albatross for the second time in 2019. Johannes Veerman restored the trend in 2021 though, Max Kieffer’s event form coming into the 2022 renewal wasn’t exactly leaping off the page either, and last year’s winner Todd Clements was making his Czech Masters debut:

  • 2023: Todd Clements: Debut
  • 2022: Max Kieffer: 68/29
  • 2021: Johannes Veerman: MC
  • 2019: Thomas Pieters: MC/1/2/66/9
  • 2018: Andrea Pavan: 39/MC
  • 2017: Haydn Porteous: 60/MC
  • 2016: Paul Peterson: MC
  • 2015: Thomas Pieters: MC
  • 2014: Jamie Donaldson: Debut

Despite moving courses this year, the demands and dynamics of PGA National OAKS and the previously used Albatross courses may not be massively different. Both are long courses, reduced a little by the slight altitude, that should set up well for the more aggressive types, however fast-running fairways and slick, undulating greens could encourage those who have performed well on some of the more linksy Kyle Phillips creations over the years.

My selections are as follows:

Ewen Ferguson – WD Pre-Event

The bookies’ continued infatuation with Tom McKibbin sees the Northern Irishman rate as the clear favourite for this week’s event despite a disappointing fortnight in Scotland before the DP World Tour’s summer break. My preference is to leave him and those immediately below him in the market alone this week and back Ewen Ferguson who’s already proven that once he finds top gear he can contend – and potentially win – repeatedly.

2022 was the breakthrough year for the Scot where he first secured his maiden DP World Tour title at the Qatar Masters before adding a second title later that year at the ISPS World Invitational and very nearly a third at the Made in Himmerland 3 weeks later, where only a miraculous putting performance from Oliver Wilson prevented him from securing a hat-trick of season wins.

2023 was solid if unspectacular but he’s stepped up a gear again this year, winning the BMW International Open last month before recording his best Major result on his last start, finishing a creditable 22nd at Royal Troon.

A lack of Czech Masters experience is of little consequence given this year’s change of venue which puts everyone on a level playing field, however he’s played well in the country at Challenge Tour level in the past to offer some encouragement that he can hit the ground running here in Prague, finishing 10th and 12th at the 2018 and 2019 Prague Golf Challenge events respectively.

8th at last year’s KLM Open played on a Kyle Phillips design at Bernardus Links is a tick in that box and he has multiple top 10s in both Kenya and South Africa to suggest that he can readily adapt to a little bit of altitude.

With fairways and greens running fast until any rain arrives, one key factor here could be strong approach play and at 9th for the season for SG Approach could have the correct tools for this week’s task. RESULT: WD Pre-Event

Matthew Jordan 2pts EW 25/1 (6EW, 1/5) with William Hill

The last 3 Czech Masters champions were breaking their DP World Tour maiden and if that trend is to continue at this year’s new venue then Matthew Jordan has to be one of the most likely candidates for a breakthrough on a course that may well suit perfectly.

11th for SG Off the Tee for the season to date, 18th for SG Approach and 10th for SG Tee to Green are a trio of long-game statistics that should serve him well around this OAKS course as he looks to build on a season that’s seen him record top-13 finishes at the Indian Open, European Open and Volvo Mixed, as well as top-5 finishes at the Kenya Open and Soudal Open.

It was his last effort at The Open Championship though which undoubtedly caught the eye and should give Matthew a timely injection of confidence as he looks to attack the latter part of this season. Arriving at Royal Troon off the back of a solid 26th place finish in strong company at the Scottish Open, the 28 year-old produced 4 straight rounds of 71 to finish in a tie for 10th place and record his second Open top-10 finish in succession.

A largely exposed, fast-running track like the OAKS should feel like home to a player like Jordan who spent his formative golfing years on the Wirral links courses, and if the rain does arrive towards the end of the week then he has the power to take on this long track. RESULT: MC

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Daniel Brown 1pt EW 55/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Another player who impressed at The Open was Daniel Brown and there’s enough evidence to suggest that the Englishman could build on that performance as the DP World Tour season heads towards its climax.

The Northallerton man was carrying our money at last year’s ISPS World Invitational when he made his winning breakthrough at the top level, which for biorhythm believers interestingly came in this very week 12 months ago, and Dan could be primed for a repeat performance here this week.

That effort at Galgorm Castle last year came after a short summer break and followed a top-10 finish on his previous outing at the PGA Tour’s Barbasol Championship. Fast forward 12 months and we’re presented with an almost identical scenario with the 29 year-old having rested since finishing a prominent 10th at Royal Troon.

Statistically Brown can be a difficult one to find as his form can be so hit and miss – 6 straight missed cuts between March and June are testament to that – however 4th for SG Off the Tee at The Open is mightily impressive and if he putts like he did at Troon where he led the field for SG Putting then he could be collecting more silverware this week. RESULT: MC

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Joe Dean 1pt EW 66/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally I’ll take another chance on Joe Dean who I last backed at the BMW International Open at the start of July where he finished 49th.

As I remarked at the time, we’re still working out what makes the Sheffield man tick as he tackles these DP World Tour events for the first time, however a week like this where course experience is confined to casual rounds at best presents the kind of level playing field that could see the 30 year-old excel.

Since quitting the Morrison’s deliver driver day job we’ve seen some impressive efforts from Joe, most notably 2nd at the Kenya Open (altitude), 5th at the Soudal Open and 2nd at the KLM Open, which shares some aesthetic features with this week’s task. 25th at The Open in the most elite of company was just as impressive though and like my other selections should provide him with a great platform to attack the late summer and early autumn events on the DP World Tour with a ticket for the season-ending Tour Championship very much a possibility.

Joe has the power and control from off the tee to set up chances on a course like this, plus his two aforementioned runner-up finishes both came courtesy of top-3 SG Putting performance on Bentgrass greens which bodes well with this week’s putting surfaces. RESULT: T43

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:55BST 12.8.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.