After more than 11 months of battle, stretching all the way back to the Joburg Open late last November, we finally arrive at the season’s finale in Dubai.
Rory McIlroy heads the DP World Tour rankings by a little over 100 points from Ryan Fox after the Kiwi’s runner-up finish last week at the Nedbank, with Matt Fitzpatrick a distant 3rd at nearly 1,000 points shy of Rory’s lead. However, with 12,000 points in total up for grabs this week across the field and 2,000 points to the winner, as to who actually wins the overall title is still up in the air and will undoubtedly be impacted by this week’s result.
As per last year, the top 50 available players from the season-long ranking are in attendance, and with Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris and Thomas Pieters all absent, that means Haotong Li sneaks into the field in 53rd place, with Thomas Detry the first reserve should anybody drop out pre-event.
World Number 1 McIlroy heads the betting for this no-cut event, with 10/3 looking the likely best price that will be available once the market settles. John Rahm at 5/1 is Rory’s nearest challenger in terms of the betting, with Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland the closest to them in this top-class field.
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Course Overview. As ever, the venue for the DP World Tour Championship is the Greg Norman-designed Earth Course.
The track is a monster at 7,675 yards with 2 of the par-5s measuring over 620 yards, the tough par-4 9th which is 3 feet short of 500 yards, plus the 195 yard par-3 17th which plays to an island green.
Greens are large, undulating Bermudagrass which measure 12’6″ on the stimp when dry and firm and, as always, aren’t to every player’s liking.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2021: Collin Morikawa, 15/2; 2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 16/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 7/1; 2018: Danny Willett, 80/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 12/1; 2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 66/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2014: Henrik Stenson, 17/2; 2013: Henrik Stenson, 11/1; 2012: Rory McIlroy, 6/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 40/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 50/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.
For the 4 days of tournament play we should see dry and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the low-90s Fahrenheit, accompanied by light to moderate winds reaching 10-15mph in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of recent winners gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited here:
2020, Collin Morikawa (-17). 302 yards (10th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 1.72 putts per GIR (15th)
2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15). 300 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (1st), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 1.70 putts per GIR (5th)
2019, Jon Rahm (-19). 315 yards (8th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
2018, Danny Willett (-18). 302 yards (16th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st)
2017, Jon Rahm (-19). 313 yards (4th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd)
2016, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17). 298 yards (16th), 80.4% fairways (4th), 77.8% greens in regulation (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
2015, Rory McIlroy (-21). 322 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (37th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (4th)
2014, Henrik Stenson (-16). 310 yards (2nd), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th)
2013, Henrik Stenson (-25). 300 yards (7th), 89.3% fairways (1st), 94.4% greens in regulation (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th)
2012, Rory McIlroy (-23). 301 yards (2nd), 73.2% fairways (22nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (47th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st)
2011, Alvaro Quiros (-19). 311 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (55th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2010, Robert Karlsson (-14). 298 yards (5th), 76.8% fairways (20th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st)
2009, Lee Westwood (-23). 298 yards (8th), 85.7% fairways (7th), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (5th)
Up until Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2016, you could have argued with some conviction that length off the tee was pretty much a pre-requisite here at the Earth Course. From Lee Westwood in 2009 through to Rory McIlroy in 2015, each winner had ranked inside the top-8 for Driving Distance on the week and on 4 occasions the winner was in the top-2 for distance off the tee.
Now Fitzpatrick isn’t long by any stretch, however he has shown an ability to perform on longer tracks (a win at the Nordea Masters and 7th at Augusta spring to mind) and perhaps that’s actually the key factor in not being intimidated by the length here. More average length drivers can perform well – Ian Poulter, for instance, has a decent record here, as has Francesco Molinari – however shorter players need to make up for that handicap with an excellent performance from tee-to-green.
The most consistent statistic from the winners detailed above, aside from tee-to-green performance, has been putting on these Bermudagrass greens. Henrik Stenson’s win in 2014 saw him rank 16th in the field for putting average, which is the worst on show – indeed both Jon Rahm and Danny Willett topped that stat when proving victorious in 2018 and 2019, whereas Collin Morikawa was 15th on that count last year.
Looking a little deeper at the past 10 winners here and we see that birdie-making and bogey avoidance is also pretty important:
Collin Morikawa (2021): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (2020): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -8; 22 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Jon Rahm (2019): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -13; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies, 6 Bogeys and a Double over the course of the 4 days.
Danny Willett (2018): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 23 Birdies and 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Jon Rahm (2017): par 3 scoring +1; par 4: -12; par 5: -8; 25 Birdies and 6 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016): par 3 scoring: -1; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
Rory McIlroy (2015): par 3 scoring:-2; par 4: -10; par 5: -9; 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Henrik Stenson (2014): par 3 scoring:-4; par 4: -4; par 5: -8; 23 Birdies, 5 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
Henrik Stenson (2013): par 3 scoring:-1; par 4: -14; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies and 2 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Rory McIlroy (2012): par 3 scoring: level; par 4: -12; par 5: -11; 1 Eagle, 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Generally the winner will have an excellent week on the par-4s whilst making birdie or better on around 50-60% of the par-5s during the course of the week.
Strokes Gained: 2019 was the first time that we got a view of Strokes Gained performance here at the Earth Course and in truth it didn’t tell us much more than we might have inferred from observing the previous renewals here over the years.
Looking at the three renewals overall, SG Off the Tee, SG Tee to Green and SG Around the Green are the most consistent factors between the winners:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, the winners here had all produced some decent results in the recent past before lifting the trophy, with each having registered at least one top-7 finish in their previous 6 starts.
Last year’s Champion Golfer of the Year Collin Morikawa hadn’t won since his Open Championship triumph at Royal St George’s in July, however with 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup and 7th at the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour over his previous two starts, there was plenty of evidence that he was in decent nick.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2020 came after a fortnight’s break following a missed cut at the PGA Tour’s RSM Classic. 46th at The Masters the week before is nothing of note, however prior to that he’d sat 7th heading into Sunday at the Zozo Championship, 7th to halfway at the CJ Cup and held the lead after 36 holes at Wentworth, so was clearly playing some solid golf.
Jon Rahm hadn’t played for 7 weeks before he won here in 2019, with his previous start at the Spanish Open also producing silverware. 4th in the world when arriving here, the Spaniard had also won the Irish Open earlier that year on the European Tour and had finished 2nd to Danny Willett at Wentworth a couple of weeks before his homeland win.
Danny Willett’s season was solid if unspectacular before winning 2 years ago, however with his 3 top-10s all coming in good events in Italy, Ireland and Turkey, he was seemingly saving his best for the bigger weeks on Tour.
Before that, Rahm had won twice in the season already and had produced 4 top-7 finishes in the FedEx Cup PlayOffs before 3 less convincing efforts prior to his win. Fitzpatrick had finished 7th at Augusta before winning the Nordea Masters earlier in 2016, plus he’d produced a couple of top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts. Rory had won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier in 2015 as well as the WGC Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship, plus had some decent incoming form.
In fact all of the winners had some positive form either recently and/or from the Middle East earlier that year to encourage punters:
Collin Morikawa: 14/2/4/71/1/4/26/MC/63/28/2/7
Matthew Fitzpatrick: 3/6/MC/MC/6/MC/42/7/12/26/46/MC
Jon Rahm: MC/3/2/1/11/7/3/5/13/2/MC/1
Danny Willett: 19/24/MC/18/MC/59/44/MC/MC/23/7/50
Jon Rahm: 10/1/44/28/58/3/4/5/7/15/MC/36
Matthew Fitzpatrick: MC/MC/49/6/5/MC/7/16/MC/49/16/20
Rory McIlroy: 8/1/MC/MC/9/17/29/4/16/26/6/11
Henrik Stenson: 5/4/2/39/19/3/38/26/23/2/24/3
Henrik Stenson: 10/3/2/2/3/43/1/33/1/34/31/7
Rory McIlroy: MC/10/60/5/1/24/1/1/10/2/3/MC
Alvaro Quiros: MC/MC/53/MC/68/37/16/MC/49/7
Robert Karlsson: WD/14/7/65/16/MC/42/29/2/34/MC/4
Lee Westwood: 2/8/3/9/3/23/8/9/1/9/8/54
Course Form: Apart from the early renewals and Jon Rahm’s debut success in 2017, winners here generally had some decent course form prior to victory:
Collin Morikawa: 10
Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4/1/12/34/9
Jon Rahm: 1/4
Danny Willett: 26/21/4/50
Jon Rahm: Debut
Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4
Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11/1/5/2
Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7/1
Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7
Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11
Alvaro Quiros: 42/3
Robert Karlsson: Debut
Lee Westwood: Debut
With Matt Fitpatrick’s win here in 2020, we’ve also seen 4 repeat winners with Rory Mcilroy, Henrik Stenson and Jon Rahm also winning the title twice.
The 12 renewals haven’t produced any complete shocks with Westwood (16/1), Karlsson (50/1), Quiros (40/1), McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (11/1 & 17/2), McIlroy again (5/1), Fitzpatrick (66/1), Rahm (12/1), Willett (80/1), Rahm (7/1), Fitzpatrick (16/1) and Morikawa (15/2) all backable for various reasons.
Fitzpatrick (2016) and Rahm on debut (2017) were probably the most difficult to find as each of the other winners here in the event’s history have an excellent record in the Middle East swing on the European Tour and each of those, except Westwood, had won either in Qatar, Dubai or both over the course of their respective careers.
Fitzpatrick did however back up his success here with a top-5 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic the following year, plus Rahm won the CareerBuilder Challenge in the desert before winning this title again 2 years ago, so perhaps it’s more of a case that the pair hadn’t really had chance to show their hands fully before they won here. Of course, Fitzpatrick winning this title again in 2020 demonstrates how comfortable he feels in these surroundings.
The rough has been toughened a little over the years which swings the pendulum a little more towards total driving and quality ball-striking than putting in my opinion, although top-quality putters may well still find a way to get into contention this week.
Those players who can find fairways (and the further down the better), find greens and produce an impressive enough performance on the Bermuda greens are most likely to succeed in my view.
My selections are as follows:
Rory McIlroy 1st, Jon Rahm 2nd (Straight Forecast), 2pts 25/1 with bet365
Since 2012 we’ve had 5 single-digit winners of this event, with just the odd ray of sunshine for each-way backers who like to take their chances a little further down the field. Outside of those at the very top of the market, we’ve also had 11/1, 12/1, and two 16/1 winners, so trying to get too cute with selections here probably isn’t the game.
That said, the two favourites here are extremely short. Early quotes of 7/2 about Rory McIlroy have all but disappeared as I’m about to publish, with 10/3 or maybe even 3/1 his likely starting price. 5/1 about fellow 2-time Earth Course winner Jon Rahm isn’t a great deal more generous either, especially when you consider that he has no mathematical chance of topping the overall points list and the pressure is well and truly off.
The third of our multiple winners of this event, Matt Fitzpatrick, is also being supported as I write this, and with victory here his only possible way of topping the rankings this year, it may well be win or bust for the Sheffield man. His approach play hasn’t been great of late and for me if he gets off to anything but a flying start, I suspect he could coast through the tournament in 2nd gear, more than happy with his lot for the season.
Viktor Hovland I’ll write about separately, however below that quarter I struggle to see anyone likely to be able to keep pace with the market principals, with Tommy Fleetwood elated but drained after last week’s win and Shane Lowry only having played sporadically since his Wentworth win in September.
So we’re back to Rory and Rahm. We could Dutch the pair win-only potentially, although the odds are so skinny that a hefty stake on both would be required to make it meaningful, and that’s not my modus operandi.
A dual forecast with firms offering the market is around 12/1 which makes more appeal, however my gut feel is that McIlroy is playing the best golf of anyone here at present and to that end I’m happy to take a chance on the Straight Forecast at 25/1, which requires Mcilroy to come first and Rahm to come second, with dead heat rules in place if there’s a tie for 2nd.
Both men have won this title twice, with McIlroy victorious in 2012 and 2015, whilst Rahm picked up the title in 2017 and 2019. The course suits the ball-striking prowess of both the current and former World No.1 down to a proverbial tee, with long, straight driving the strongest of weapons to possess here at the Earth Course.
In his last 11 starts, McIlroy has won the Canadian Open, Tour Championship and, on his last start, the CJ Cup, plus came within an inch of forcing a play-off at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, all whilst putting on a clinic both with his Strokes Gained Off the Tee as well as Tee to Green.
Rahm was also tied for 2nd behind Shane Lowry at Wentworth before winning the Spanish Open, however 4th behind Rory on his last start at the CJ Cup just swings the pendulum in the favour of the Northern Irishman in my view, and with the prospect of topping the rankings both sides of the Atlantic in a year where he’s been a staunch advocate of both Tours in the face of LIV, I suspect his motivation to succeed has never been higher. RESULT: 4th & 1st
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Viktor Hovland 3pts EW 10/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
If there’s a player in this field who undoubtedly has the class to topple one of the favourites if things don’t quite go to plan, then it’s Viktor Hovland, and yes I’ve backed him each way despite the short price given everything I’ve said above about McIlroy and Rahm, in case he comes up just short.
No win now since late January has seen the Norwegian slip from a career-higher 3rd in the OWGR to his current ranking of 11th, however that’s in no way representative of his chance here this week, particularly with the bulk of the pressure from a points list perspective falling on Rory’s shoulders this week as he sits a distant 4th in the rankings.
In truth, the 25 year-old could be considerably closer to McIlroy’s total heading into this deciding week had he converted a great opportunity at Wentworth back in September where he led heading into the final day before his long game uncharacteristically fell apart, however 5th at the ZOZO Championship and 10th last time out at the Mayakoba on the PGA Tour have both featured far stronger long-game stats and he could be primed for a huge week here in Dubai.
Ultimately it was Viktor’s putting that prevented him from having a chance of the three-peat in Mexico the week before last, however the Earth Course has always been more of a long game test than a putting contest and that should suit him very nicely indeed.
Three career PGA Tour victories have all come outside of the United States – twice in Mexico and once in Puerto Rico – and two wins the other side of the Atlantic continue to allow for an interesting narrative whenever Hovland’s exploits are mentioned, however that’s surely a positive for this week’s task if there’s any mental block State-side.
Those two wins on the DP World Tour have come in the past 18 months, the first of which was in Germany last summer when he beat Martin Kaymer by a couple of strokes, then of more relevance to this week’s task, he won the Dubai Desert Classic in a play-off over Richard Bland at Rolex Series level at the start of this year.
That win came a week after he finished 4th in Abu Dhabi – again a Rolex event – and he also came 6th the year before at the Saudi International to suggest that he’s more than comfortable in this part of the world. Add to that a 3rd place finish here at Jumeirah on his only start back in 2020 and we have a player who’s really quite likely to feature.
4th for putting average 2 years ago on these Bermuda greens in old money is encouraging, as is 4th for both SG Off the Tee and SG Tee to Green, and with plenty of Ryder Cup points up for grabs, I can see Viktor pushing the market leaders to the end this week. RESULT: T23
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Given the short field which stifles odds, despite the favourites taking up a fair chunk of the market, this is rarely going to be an event that’s jam-packed full of value and this week’s staking plan undoubtedly has to reflect that fact.
Of the players outside the top 10 or so in the betting, Minwoo Lee interests me most. If a mid-priced player is going to contend for a place or better in this field, I suspect he’s going to need to be a classy sort who’s at least shown the ability to take on top-class players in the past without wilting.
Rolex Series wins are a good barometer for digging out this class of player, and with his Scottish Open victory last year Lee can unequivocally state that he’s taken on the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton, and beaten them fair and square.
Alongside Thomas Detry, who at first reserve for this week’s finale may or may not have found his way into the field by the time you’re reading this, Fitzpatrick was the final player who made the eventual play-off at Renaissance Club last year, which Minwoo took with birdie on the first extra hole. Rahm was 7th, having co-led to halfway, and the rest further back with Rory missing the cut. Of course, one result – the week before a Major – doesn’t prove the rule, however at least we have some evidence that Minwoo can step up to the plate at a high-grade event.
A largely disappointing 2022 for the 24 year-old has undoubtedly taken a step forward in recent times with 3rd place finishes at both the Spanish Open and Andalucia Masters, before finishing in a tie for 8th last week at Sun City. A second round 76 put paid to his chances last week after an opening round of 68 had the Australian in 4th place after day one, however closing rounds of 70 and 69 were solid enough.
17th or better for SG Off the Tee over his last 3 starts, his SG Tee to Green performances in Spain were eye-catching at 3rd and 4th in the field respectively; his short game and putting is in decent enough shape to feature here in my view, he just needs to find a strong week with his irons to really contend. 16th here on debut 12 months ago gives us some encouragement in that respect, given that he ranked 4th for GIR on the week. RESULT: T12
4th at the neighbouring Fire Course before last year’s effort and 4th back in 2019 at the Saudi International also supports his case, and Minwoo is the fearless type who could just scare the market principals coming down the stretch on Sunday.
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Ewen Ferguson 1pt EW 125/1 (5EW, 1/4) with Betfred
Finally for 2022, I’ll take a punt on Ewen Ferguson whose price this week is longer than it should be due to the fact that this is his Earth Course debut.
Jon Rahm aside, in recent renewals the winner here has had some practical experience of this track, however talented sorts such as Nicolai Hojgaard, Sami Valimaki and Laurie Canter have all made the each-way places on their first attempt at juicy mid-prices, and if someone from further down the field is going to emulate them then it could be the Scot.
Desert golf in general isn’t an issue for the 26 year-old, who is part of Niall Horan’s stable of players, having won the Qatar Masters earlier this year for his DP World Tour breakthrough, and perhaps it’s not too much to ask for him to take to a track where he can fire away at pins with nothing to lose after such a strong season.
He followed up that Qatar victory with a further win at the ISPS Handa World Invitational in August in Northern Ireland. Now Galgorm Castle is clearly nothing like desert golf, however 1st for SG Tee to Green that week is nevertheless a positive when it comes to what we’d like to see from an Earth Course winner. 2nd at the Made in Himmerland two starts later could quite reasonably have been a third title of the season save for Oliver Wilson’s putting clinic on the back 9, and I’m sure I won’t be on my own in fancying the Glaswegian to go well this week at anything around three figures.
9th in Mallorca and 8th last week at Sun City has seen him rank inside the top 20 in all SG long game categories, with 7th for SG Off the Tee and 4th for SG Approach last week the pick of the bunch. A very lively outsider in my opinion. RESULT: T42
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