Paul Williams

Paul Williams' DP World Tour Championship Tips 2024

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After 11 months of battle, stretching all the way back to the Joburg Open and Australian PGA Championship last November, we finally arrive at the DP World Tour’s finale in Dubai.

Such is Rory McIlroy’s lead at the top of the Race to Dubai rankings that only an extremely poor week from him combined with a victory for Thriston Lawrence would prevent him from securing the Harry Vardon Trophy on Sunday once again. In all likelihood it will be a damp squib in that respect, however there’s plenty more to fight for with a $10 prize fund, Race to Dubai bonus pool, and the 10 PGA Tour cards to be concluded.

As per the last three years, the top 50 available players from the season-long rankings are in attendance, and at the time of writing the only omissions are Ludvig Aberg, who is recovering from surgery, and Jon Rahm who is enjoying some family time following the birth of his daughter.

Rory McIlroy leads the betting this week at around the 5/1 mark, give or take, with Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood also rated as single figure chances. In a field largely the same in composition at the top end of the market to last week, odds don’t differ massively to Abu Dhabi with the exception of Billy Horschel who’s flown in for this and rates as a 22/1 shot.

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Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE. Designer: Greg Norman, 2009; Par: 72; Length: 7,675 yards; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: TifEagle Bermuda; Stimp: 12’6″.

Course Overview. As ever, the venue for the DP World Tour Championship is the Greg Norman-designed Earth Course.

The track is a monster at 7,675 yards with 2 of the par-5s measuring over 620 yards, the tough par-4 9th which is 3 feet short of 500 yards, plus the 195 yard par-3 17th which plays to an island green. Greens are large, undulating Bermudagrass which measure 12’6″ on the stimp when dry and firm and, as always, aren’t to every player’s liking.

dp world tour championship tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s DP World Tour Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Nicolai Hojgaard, 22/1; 2022: Jon Rahm, 5/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 15/2; 2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 16/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 7/1; 2018: Danny Willett, 80/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 12/1; 2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 66/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2014: Henrik Stenson, 17/2; 2013: Henrik Stenson, 11/1; 2012: Rory McIlroy, 6/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 40/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 50/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.

For the 4 days of tournament play we should see dry and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high-80s Fahrenheit, accompanied by light to moderate winds reaching 10-15mph in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of recent winners gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited here:

  • 2023, Nicolai Hojgaard (-21). 313 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (28th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2022, Jon Rahm (-20). 307 yards (13th), 42.9% fairways (46th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa (-17). 302 yards (10th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 1.72 putts per GIR (15th)
  • 2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15). 300 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (1st), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 1.70 putts per GIR (5th)
  • 2019, Jon Rahm (-19). 315 yards (8th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2018, Danny Willett (-18). 302 yards (16th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2017, Jon Rahm (-19). 313 yards (4th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2016, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17). 298 yards (16th), 80.4% fairways (4th), 77.8% greens in regulation (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2015, Rory McIlroy (-21). 322 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (37th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2014, Henrik Stenson (-16). 310 yards (2nd), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th)
  • 2013, Henrik Stenson (-25). 300 yards (7th), 89.3% fairways (1st), 94.4% greens in regulation (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2012, Rory McIlroy (-23). 301 yards (2nd), 73.2% fairways (22nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (47th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2011, Alvaro Quiros (-19). 311 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (55th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2010, Robert Karlsson (-14). 298 yards (5th), 76.8% fairways (20th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2009, Lee Westwood (-23). 298 yards (8th), 85.7% fairways (7th), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (5th)

Up until Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2016 you could have argued with some conviction that length off the tee was pretty much a pre-requisite here at the Earth Course. From Lee Westwood in 2009 through to Rory McIlroy in 2015, each winner had ranked inside the top-8 for Driving Distance on the week, and on 4 occasions the winner was in the top-2 for distance off the tee.

Now Fitzpatrick isn’t long by any stretch, however he has shown an ability to perform on longer tracks (a win at the Nordea Masters and 7th at Augusta spring to mind) and perhaps that’s actually the key factor in not being intimidated by the length here. More average length drivers can perform well, however shorter players need to make up for that handicap with an excellent performance from tee-to-green.

The most consistent statistic from the winners detailed above, aside from tee-to-green performance, has been putting on these Bermudagrass greens. Henrik Stenson’s win in 2014 saw him rank 16th in the field for putting average, which is the worst on show – indeed both Jon Rahm and Danny Willett topped that stat when proving victorious in 2018 and 2019, and Nicolai Hojgaard was 2nd for Putts per GIR on his way to victory here 12 months ago.

Looking a little deeper at the past 10 winners here and we see that birdie-making and bogey avoidance is also pretty important:

  • Nicolai Hojgaard (2023): par 3 scoring-4; par 4: -8; par 5: -9; 2 Eagles, 24 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Jon Rahm (2022): par 3 scoring-3; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 22 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Collin Morikawa (2021): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (2020): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -8; 22 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Jon Rahm (2019): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -13; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies, 6 Bogeys and a Double over the course of the 4 days.
  • Danny Willett (2018): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 23 Birdies and 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Jon Rahm (2017): par 3 scoring +1; par 4: -12; par 5: -8; 25 Birdies and 6 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016): par 3 scoring: -1; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
  • Rory McIlroy (2015): par 3 scoring:-2; par 4: -10; par 5: -9; 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Henrik Stenson (2014): par 3 scoring:-4; par 4: -4; par 5: -8; 23 Birdies, 5 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
  • Henrik Stenson (2013): par 3 scoring:-1; par 4: -14; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies and 2 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Rory McIlroy (2012): par 3 scoring: level; par 4: -12; par 5: -11; 1 Eagle, 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.

Generally the winner will have an excellent week on the par-4s whilst making birdie or better on around 50-60% of the par-5s during the course of the week.

Strokes Gained: 2019 was the first time that we got a view of Strokes Gained performance here at the Earth Course and in truth it didn’t tell us much more than we might have inferred from observing the previous renewals here over the years.

Looking at the five renewals overall, SG Tee to Green is most consistent factors between the winners:

  • 2023, Nicolai Hojgaard: T: 7th; A: 4th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 25th; P: 6th
  • 2022, Jon Rahm: T: 25th; A: 2nd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 2nd; P: 2nd
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa. T: 8th; A: 10th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 6th; P: 14th
  • 2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick. T: 8th; A: 33rd; T2G: 8th; ATG: 7th; P: 1st
  • 2019, Jon Rahm. T: 4th; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 4th; P: 9th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, the winners here had all produced some decent results in the recent past before lifting the trophy, with each having registered at least one top-7 finish in their previous 6 starts.

Nicolai Hojgaard’s form had been trending before winning this 12 months ago, with finishes of 56th and 31st on the PGA Tour improving to 2nd at the Nedbank the week before his success here at the Earth Course. 10th in Abu Dhabi earlier in the season in another classy field had reinforced his liking for desert golf, having previously won in Ras al Khaimah the year before.

Jon Rahm bagged his third DP World Tour Championship title from 4 attempts here last in 2022 off the back of some very clear form, finishing 2nd at Wentworth before romping to victory at the Spanish Open. 4th at the CJ Cup on his last start ensured he was a short price for this and he duly obliged at 5/1.

2021’s Champion Golfer of the Year Collin Morikawa hadn’t won since his Open Championship triumph at Royal St George’s in July, however with 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup and 7th at the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour over his previous two starts, there was plenty of evidence that he was in decent nick.

Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2020 came after a fortnight’s break following a missed cut at the PGA Tour’s RSM Classic. 46th at The Masters the week before is nothing of note, however prior to that he’d sat 7th heading into Sunday at the Zozo Championship, 7th to halfway at the CJ Cup and held the lead after 36 holes at Wentworth, so was clearly playing some solid golf.

Jon Rahm hadn’t played for 7 weeks before he won here in 2019, with his previous start at the Spanish Open also producing silverware. 4th in the world when arriving here, the Spaniard had also won the Irish Open earlier that year on the European Tour and had finished 2nd to Danny Willett at Wentworth a couple of weeks before his homeland win.

Danny Willett’s season was solid if unspectacular before winning 2 years ago, however with his 3 top-10s all coming in good events in Italy, Ireland and Turkey, he was seemingly saving his best for the bigger weeks on Tour.

Before that, Rahm had won twice in the season already and had produced 4 top-7 finishes in the FedEx Cup PlayOffs before 3 less convincing efforts prior to his win. Fitzpatrick had finished 7th at Augusta before winning the Nordea Masters earlier in 2016, plus he’d produced a couple of top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts. Rory had won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier in 2015 as well as the WGC Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship, plus had some decent incoming form.

In fact all of the winners had some positive form either recently and/or from the Middle East earlier that year to encourage punters:

  • Nicolai Hojgaard: 21/MC/6/23/MC/14/3/5/64/56/31/2
  • Jon Rahm: 1/48/10/12/55/34/5/8/16/2/1/4
  • Collin Morikawa: 14/2/4/71/1/4/26/MC/63/28/2/7
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 3/6/MC/MC/6/MC/42/7/12/26/46/MC
  • Jon Rahm: MC/3/2/1/11/7/3/5/13/2/MC/1
  • Danny Willett: 19/24/MC/18/MC/59/44/MC/MC/23/7/50
  • Jon Rahm: 10/1/44/28/58/3/4/5/7/15/MC/36
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: MC/MC/49/6/5/MC/7/16/MC/49/16/20
  • Rory McIlroy: 8/1/MC/MC/9/17/29/4/16/26/6/11
  • Henrik Stenson: 5/4/2/39/19/3/38/26/23/2/24/3
  • Henrik Stenson: 10/3/2/2/3/43/1/33/1/34/31/7
  • Rory McIlroy: MC/10/60/5/1/24/1/1/10/2/3/MC
  • Alvaro Quiros: MC/MC/53/MC/68/37/16/MC/49/7
  • Robert Karlsson: WD/14/7/65/16/MC/42/29/2/34/MC/4
  • Lee Westwood: 2/8/3/9/3/23/8/9/1/9/8/54

Course Form: Apart from the early renewals and Jon Rahm’s debut success in 2017, winners here generally had some decent course form prior to victory and each of the past 6 winners had recorded a top-10 finish here in the past:

  • Nicolai Hojgaard: 4
  • Jon Rahm: 1/4/1
  • Collin Morikawa: 10
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4/1/12/34/9
  • Jon Rahm: 1/4
  • Danny Willett: 26/21/4/50
  • Jon Rahm: Debut
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4
  • Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11/1/5/2
  • Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7/1
  • Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7
  • Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11
  • Alvaro Quiros: 42/3
  • Robert Karlsson: Debut
  • Lee Westwood: Debut

Following Matt Fitpatrick’s win here in 2020, we’ve also seen 4 repeat winners with Rory Mcilroy, Henrik Stenson also winning the title twice, whilst Jon Rahm has now triumphed on three occasions.

The 15 renewals haven’t produced any complete shocks with Westwood (16/1), Karlsson (50/1), Quiros (40/1), McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (11/1 & 17/2), McIlroy again (5/1), Fitzpatrick (66/1), Rahm (12/1), Willett (80/1), Rahm (7/1), Fitzpatrick (16/1), Morikawa (15/2), Rahm (5/1) and Hojgaard (22/1) all backable for various and sometimes very obvious reasons.

Fitzpatrick (2016) and Rahm on debut (2017) were probably the most difficult to find as each of the other winners here in the event’s history have an excellent record in the Middle East swing on the European Tour and each of those, except Westwood, had won either in Qatar, Dubai or both over the course of their respective careers.

Fitzpatrick did however back up his success here with a top-5 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic the following year, plus Rahm won the CareerBuilder Challenge in the desert before winning this title again twice since, so perhaps it’s more of a case that the pair hadn’t really had chance to show their hands fully before they won here. Of course, Fitzpatrick winning this title again in 2020 demonstrates how comfortable he feels in these surroundings.

The rough has been toughened a little over the years which swings the pendulum a little more towards total driving and quality ball-striking than putting in my opinion, although top-quality putters may well still find a way to get into contention this week. Those players who can find fairways (and the further down the better), find greens and produce an impressive enough performance on the Bermuda greens are most likely to succeed in my view.

My Final DP World Tour Championship Tips Are As Follows:

Rory McIlroy 6pts Enhanced Win 11/2 with bet365

With three of the past five winners of this event obliging at single figure odds, dismissing the three favourites on the grounds of price could well prove to be a mistake.

Jon Rahm (7/1, 2019 and 5/1, 2022) and Collin Morikawa (15/2, 2021) were the short priced men in question, however with neither in attendance here this week the three candidates are Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood, and I’m happy to support the Race to Dubai champion elect here this time around.

The absence of Rahm makes the decision to back Rory a little easier in truth – at 3 Earth Course victories to McIlroy’s 2, the pair would have been tough to split. With Rahm opting for time at home with his new addition to the family, Rory’s task is made that little bit easier in my view and although Hatton and Fleetwood’s records here are good, they aren’t a patch on that of the favourite.

Undoubtedly there’ll be a school of thought that suggests Rory doesn’t have to do a massive amount to top the Race to Dubai rankings this week and if Thriston Lawrence starts slowly then he can simply cruise through the 4 days. Such is the way that the points taper quickly in this event though, if Lawrence is anywhere near the lead then Rory won’t be able to down tools. Not that I think he will anyway.

In truth it’s been a fairly quiet season for McIlroy by his high standards with his near misses far more notable than his successes. Victory at Quail Hollow in May was his fourth on that course, following a pairs title alongside Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic, but it will be his letting the US Open slip through his fingers at Pinehurst that remains for more front of mind. Near misses at the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship since September may also put some punters off, but after a month off last week’s 3rd place finish in Abu Dhabi contained enough positives for me to support him here this week.

A field-leading performance in terms of SG Off the Tee last week tells me that his driver is in the right kind of shape to successfully tackle the Earth Course, and 6th for SG Putting is encouragement enough that he can make the requisite birdies to win here.

Victory at the Emirates earlier this year when the Tour last visited Dubai – like at Quail Hollow, his fourth success on that course – reinforces the fact that Rory’s at his most dangerous on the courses he enjoys most, and for me this could be a procession to both the Race to Dubai as well as the DP World Tour Championship title this week.

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Matt Wallace 2pts EW 18/1 (6EW, 1/5) with William Hill

It wasn’t so long ago that Matt Wallace was wearing his heart on his sleeve after missing the cut at the Scottish Open, bereft on confidence and at the lowest of ebbs. A solid if unspectacular 41st at Troon followed the week after and from there it was progression all the way, culminating in victory at the European Masters and proof if any were needed that a problem shared is a problem halved.

With his Corales Championship win on the PGA Tour in 2023 affording him the luxury of holding an exemption through 2025, the Englishman has stayed this side of the Atlantic since his win rather than toil on the PGA Tour’s Fall events as he’s looked to build on a strong start to Ryder Cup qualification, and after a 3rd place finish last week in Abu Dhabi that dream could be massively bolstered with victory here this week.

Matt’s made no secret of his desire to represent Team Europe having been in the qualification conversation ever since narrowly missing out on a captain’s pick from Thomas Bjorn back in 2018, and at 3rd in the rankings he’s set the foundations for his most concerted effort yet. At 65th in the OWGR though his task will be made much simpler with access to golf’s biggest events if he can break back into the world’s top 50, with a Masters invite the immediate prize if he can get to that point this side of the new year.

Desire and ambition will get you so far, however there’s plenty of more tangible reasons to suggest that the Hillingdon man can push the market leaders all the way here this week. His effort at Yas Links saw a field-leading SG Tee-to-Green performance bolstered by top 10 rankings from Off the Tee, Approach and Around the Green, with only the putter preventing him from posting a winning total. That element can be patchy with Wallace, however Sunday’s flawless round of 63 was much better in that respect and we know from experience that when the confidence starts to flow with the flat stick that he’s very dangerous indeed.

2nd here at the Earth Course on debut back in 2018, Matt equalled that performance last year when also carrying my money, gaining over 5.5 strokes on the greens over the four days and producing that magical stretch of golf on the Saturday where he birdied every single hole on the back 9 to record a course record 60 and put him in a great position heading into the final day. With his long game in magnificent shape heading into this year’s event and plenty of motivating factors to keep him focussed, I can see the 34 year-old going one better this year if Rory fails to win.

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Tom McKibbin 1pt EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally for 2024, I’m going to back Tom McKibbin to put together the kind of week that will see him snare one of the borderline PGA Tour cards that are still up for grabs here in Dubai.

With only 60 Race to Dubai points separating the 21 year-old from Jordan Smith, who currently holds the final card as things stand, and 200 points behind Rikuya Hoshino who holds the 8th of 10 cards, there’s everything to play for this week for McKibbin. To put this into context, solo 8th here last year earned exactly 300 points, so somewhere inside that mark would give the Northern Irishman a real chance of playing State-side golf next year, depending of course what the others do.

2nd at the Italian Open is Tom’s best result of the season, however with 7 further top-10 finishes including two in the Middle East, it’s been a solid season for the talented youngster as he seeks out his second win at DP World Tour level.

10th at the BMW PGA Championship and 10th again last week in Abu Dhabi shows growing maturity at Rolex Series level, and 32nd here on his Earth Course debut last year means he’ll feel far more comfortable this time around now that he knows what this week’s task entails.

SG Off the Tee is where McKibbin does much of the damage – indeed he ranks 6th on Tour on that count over the full season – and that’s no bad place to start when looking for a winner here this week as the stats in my preamble would suggest. Interestingly though, Tom took to the greens here quite nicely last year, ranking 14th for SG Putting in a period of time when the flat stick was often cold, and that adds encouragement for this week.

9th in Qatar before last year’s effort is another solid outing in the desert and with so much at stake this week I think he can push on and secure an each-way place here in Dubai plus his PGA Tour card in one fell swoop.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:45GMT 11.11.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.