Dubai Desert Classic Tips 2025 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' Dubai Desert Classic Tips 2025

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With last week’s Team Cup acting as a gentle opener to the 2025 DP World Tour schedule for the 20 players involved, we move swiftly on to the first full-field strokeplay event of the new year.

With the Abu Dhabi Championship to come much later in the year as per 2024, this week’s Dubai Desert Classic is the headline event of the Middle East Swing. As the first Rolex Series event of the year it’s managed to attract an excellent field with 6 of the world’s top 20 in attendance, namely Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Tyrrell Hatton and Adam Scott, with Akshay Bhatia and Jon Rahm also in attendance from the top 30.

4-time Dubai Desert Classic champion McIlroy heads the market at around the 7/2 mark give or take, with Rahm a point or so behind him at around 9/2. Such is the top-heavy nature of this week’s event that both Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood are 10/1 or shorter with most bookies in this 126-man field.

Before we go into more detail and my final Dubai Desert Classic tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,400-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Emirates GC. Designer: Litten, 1988; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,428 yards; Water Hazards: 10; Fairways: Bermuda/Rye; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: Bermuda (TifEagle) 12’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. The Majlis Course is our venue once again for this year’s Dubai Desert Classic. As you’d expect with a desert course this is a fairly exposed layout, however the track here at the Emirates Golf Club features a number of dog-leg holes which, when combined with wind which is quite often a factor, creates somewhat of a strategic test.

Navigating successfully from tee-to-green is key on this 7,428 yard par-72 layout – once on board, the putting surfaces are pretty flat and reasonably speedy Bermuda measuring 12-13 on the stimpmeter, and they can appeal to the less adept putters on Tour. The greens themselves were rebuilt ahead of the 2022 event, adding on average 1/3 to the size of each putting surface. As ever, the newly laid turf was firmer than usual back then and has continued to settle down a little since.

The back nine, whilst longer than the front nine, plays far easier with three mid-length par-5s in play, the short par-4 17th and the shortest of the par-3s at the 11th. The 1^st, 3^rd and 16^th holes were extended prior to the 2021 event, adding 67 yards to the total length of the course.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Dubai Desert Classic that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Rory McIlroy, 7/2; 2023: Rory McIlroy, 16/5; 2022: Viktor Hovland, 10/1; 2021: Paul Casey, 25/1; 2020: Lucas Herbert, 200/1; 2019: Bryson DeChambeau, 10/1; 2018: Hao-tong Li, 110/1; 2017: Sergio Garcia, 20/1; 2016: Danny Willett, 40/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy 7/2; 2014: Stephen Gallacher, 45/1; 2013: Stephen Gallacher, 70/1; 2012: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, 125/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 16/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 66/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.

Fairly typical conditions for Dubai in January are expected with relatively light winds in the main, sunshine and temperatures up to the mid 70s Fahrenheit. The wind picks up a little in the afternoons here at this time of the year, however there’s nothing much beyond 10-15mph in the forecast at this stage.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the past 14 winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

2024: Rory McIlroy (-14). 330 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (9th), 61.9% scrambling (28th), 1.73 putts per GIR (19th).
2023: Rory McIlroy (-19). 306 yards (4th), 39.3% fairways (82nd), 72.2% greens in regulation (24th), 75.0% scrambling (11th), 1.62 putts per GIR (3rd).
2022: Viktor Hovland (-12). 305 yards (13th), 62.5% fairways (3rd), 69.4% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (34th), 1.71 putts per GIR (18th).
2021: Paul Casey (-17). 301 yards (23rd), 53.6% fairways (17th), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 66.7% scrambling (16th), 1.73 putts per GIR (22nd).
2020: Lucas Herbert (-9). 316 yards (9th), 42.9% fairways (37th), 66.7% greens in regulation (5th), 70.8% scrambling (4th), 1.73 putts per GIR (21st).
2019: Bryson DeChambeau (-24). 298 yards (26th), 57.1% fairways (22nd), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (58th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
2018: Hao-Tong Li (-23). 304 yards (18th), 50% fairways (45th), 65.3% greens in regulation (47th), 76% scrambling (13th), 1.49 putts per GIR (1st).
2017: Sergio Garcia (-19). 305 yards (4th), 69.6% fairways (4th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (15th), 1.70 putts per GIR (17th).
2016: Danny Willett (-19). 297 yards (10th), 55.4% fairways (38th), 77.8% greens in regulation (19th), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
2015: Rory McIlroy (-22). 318 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (67th), 83.3% greens in regulation (5th), 83.63% scrambling (3rd), 1.68 putts per GIR (14th).
2014: Stephen Gallacher (-16). 304 yards (5th), 50% fairways (55th), 76.4% greens in regulation (12th), 41.2% scrambling (65th), 1.66 putts per GIR (8th).
2013: Stephen Gallacher (-22). 298 yards (5th), 58.9% fairways (34th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 75% scrambling (18th), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-18). 289 yards (17th), 64.3% fairways (32nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 72.7% scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (25th).
2011: Alvaro Quiros (-11). 311 yards (1st), 48.2% fairways (49th), 72.2% greens in regulation (15th), 75% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).

One element that stands out from a number of those players above is that many of them had previously produced a strong GIR performance here at the Emirates before winning. Sadly no performance stats were recorded for Bryson DeChambeau’s debut effort in 2016 where he finished 18th, however HaoTong Li’s win in 2018 and Viktor Hovland’s success in 2022 aside, the case is pretty compelling.

Lucas Herbert is a case in point, having hit 75% GIR on his debut here in 2019, ranking 13th in the field on that count, before ranking 5th for the same metric on his way to victory in 2020. Similarly, 2021 winner Paul Casey had previous GIR rankings of 2^nd, 4^th, 5^th and 9^th and no worse than 24^th in the field from 7 previous starts.

Although his attendance in this event has been patchy, Garcia had previously ranked 1st for GIR here in 2009; Willett had recorded 80.6% GIR on each of his previous 2 attempts before winning in 2016; McIlroy ranked 2nd, 5th ,6th and 4th for GIR here between 2009 and 2012, 5th in 2015, and 9^th last year when victorious for the fourth time; Gallacher ranked 1st for GIR the year before winning, plus had achieved GIR ranks of 9/6/8 before that; likewise both Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Miguel Angel Jimenez had ranked 1st for GIR on this layout prior to winning.

Hao-Tong Li’s effort goes against that trend as he’d only played here once before, recording a GIR ranking of 56th in the field, however we wasn’t a great deal better than that when victorious 5 years ago as it was his putter which did the damage. Likewise Viktor Hovland’s 57% GIR was only good enough for 42nd in the field, however that’s a sample of 1 so perhaps not entirely representative. As ever, there’s always scope for an exception to the rule in this game.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, we now have 6 years’ worth of results from the Emirates:

2024: Rory McIlroy: T: 1st; A: 7th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 26th; P: 31st
2023: Rory McIlroy: T: 2nd; A: 13th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 37th; P: 8th
2022: Viktor Hovland: T: 2nd; A: 3rd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 65th; P: 14th
2021: Paul Casey. T: 6th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 7th; P: 41st
2020: Lucas Herbert. T: 9th; A: 54th; T2G: 7th; ATG: 3rd; P: 14th
2019: Bryson DeChambeau. T: 4th; A: 12th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 32nd; P: 5th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Some consistency from all 6 winners from the Strokes Gained era with both Off the Tee and Tee to Green field rankings right up there with the best on the week.

For a full Strokes Gained summary for the field over the same 6 years click here.

Incoming Form: Each of the last 14 winners had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous 9 performances, so some recent form seems a fair pointer. Last year’s winner Rory McIlroy successfully defended his title having finished runner-up the week before at the season-opening Dubai Invitational:

2024: Rory McIlroy: 9/2/7/1/6/3/4/11/16/7/22/2
2023: Rory McIlroy: 1/5/19/3/MC/8/1/2/4/4/1/4
2022: Viktor Hovland: 14/36/43/17/4/49/44/18/1/1/30/4
2021: Paul Casey: MC/67/2/31/49/16/17/MC/69/35/38/8
2020: Lucas Herbert: 55/62/MC/8/22/MC/MC/34/14/MC/64/67
2019: Bryson DeChambeau: 51/13/30/MC/1/1/19/19/1/12/7/10
2018: Hao-Tong Li: 3/MC/MC/25/62/48/50/66/4/13/19/MC
2017: Sergio Garcia: 1/5/5/5/MC/8/24/47/17/9/19/11
2016: Danny Willett: 1/17/54/3/52/46/11/3/28/4/4/54
2015: Rory McIlroy: 14/1/1/1/22/5/8/2/2/2/15/2
2014: Stephen Gallacher: MC/9/MC/3/53/63/25/34/38/29/8/28
2013: Stephen Gallacher: 24/40/6/34/MC/5/6/MC/4/16/MC/59
2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: 33/34/MC/30/2/41/19/72/15/26/48/35
2011: Alvaro Quiros: 39/MC/42/34/5/57/55/53/3/23/8/2

Event Form. Some semblance of course form looks like a positive factor here at the Emirates, with last year’s winner Rory McIlroy adding to a long list of winners here who’d previously recorded a top-25 finish around these parts. Going back to 2005, the only exceptions to the rule are Rory himself in 2009 and Haotong Li in 2018:

2024: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9/1/6/2/3/1
2023: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9/1/6/2/3
2022: Viktor Hovland: 23
2021: Paul Casey: 12/16/20/4/11/37/9
2020: Lucas Herbert: 7
2019: Bryson DeChambeau: 18
2018: Hao-Tong Li: 39
2017: Sergio Garcia: 31/MC/19/11/20/17/MC
2016: Danny Willett: MC/48/33/MC/13/13
2015: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9
2014: Stephen Gallacher: 4/MC/38/34/51/22/44/44/MC/31/10/2/1
2013: Stephen Gallacher: 4/MC/38/34/51/22/44/44/MC/31/10/2
2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/20
2011: Alvaro Quiros: 59/MC/13/6

General experience of the Emirates looks positive too: there are no debutant winners in that list above and you need to go all the way back to Richard Green in 1997 before you’ll find a first-timer walking away with the trophy here. The occasional debutant has placed here in recent years – Patrick Reed (2nd) in 2023 and Cam Young (3rd) last year for instance – however they are the exception rather than the rule.

When the breeze picks up around these parts it can accentuate the requirement for shot-shaping and almost links-like qualities to a player’s game, an assertion that’s backed up when you look at the list of winners which includes a number of Open Champions including Mark O’Meara, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson. Even Haotong Li has some Open Championship form having finished 3rd there in 2017 courtesy of a sparkling final round. This event also appears to be quite specialised with Els, McIlroy, Woods and Stephen Gallacher all winning this multiple times.

Conditions here are likely to shape the type of winner we see from year to year. When there’s any kind of breeze around these parts, the emphasis shifts towards ball-striking first and foremost, however in more placid years where scoring has been lower, those with a hot putter have also contended.

A bit of breeze in 2022, coupled with firm greens following the renovation work to the putting surfaces, contributed to a 12-under winning total as scoring proved to be a little tougher than the previous year. Softer conditions in 2023 allowed Rory McIlroy to reach 19-under as he came out on top of his tussle with Patrick Reed. Light winds but firmer conditions last year saw Rory retain his title at 14-under and something similar this week could be the order of the day.

My final Dubai Desert Classic tips are as follows:

Rory Mcilroy 6pts Enhanced Win Only 21/5 with bet365

Golf betting can produce many weird and wonderful results, with triple-digit winners commonplace and many an intangible factor proving critical when you conduct a post-event postmortem. Some events and situations are less likely to produce a shock though and sometimes you just have to hold your nose and back the bleeding obvious – like whenever Rory McIlroy visits Dubai.

We backed the Northern Irishman at the Earth Course in November when he won his third DP World Tour Championship, and he returns to the Majlis Course here at the Emirates Golf Club this week seeking a fifth course victory and a third in successive years. If we’re doing the simple mathematics, Rory has won on 3 of his last 6 visits to Dubai and given the form he was showing before Christmas I suspect he would win more than enough times to justify his price this week if we could theoretically play this event a few times over.

Of course there’s the argument that he could be rusty after downing tools over the festive period, however his 2023 win here came in his first competitive outing of the year and he’s been seen grinding on the range on the property here since Monday. Last year he finished 2^nd at Dubai Creek before winning here, although that could very easily have been two successive wins has he not found water on the 72^nd hole before Tommy Fleetwood holed a 16-footer to win by a stroke. As ever, fine margins in this game.

Tweaks to his swing ahead of his visit to the Earth Course proved to be inconsequential as the 35 year-old topped Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green on the week whilst ranking 2^nd for Off The Tee and Approach. With his game in a promising place right now and the prospect of the PGA Championship being played at one of his other favourite course, Quail Hollow, later in the year, I’m sure the world number 3 will be looking to kick the season off in style as he warms up for an assault on this year’s Majors.

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Keita Nakajima 1pt EW 70/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Of course the likes of Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood can’t be dismissed out of hand this week, however with the favourite backed I’m just going to play a trio of longer prices each-way to complete this week’s team.

Of the mid-price options out there, Keita Nakajima holds a lot of appeal. We discussed at some length on last week’s podcast the topic of players who get in the ‘habit’ of winning and those who never or very rarely get over the line, and the Japanese star certainly falls into the former category rather than the latter.

A breakthrough victory when still an amateur at the 2021 Panasonic Open was followed by three further successes on his home Tour before breaking through at last year’s Indian Open at DP World Tour level in some style, eventually running out a 4-stroke winner on course debut.

This is undoubtedly harder with the elite names at the top of the market, however here we have a 24 year-old who’s destined for much bigger things and there’s evidence enough in both Patrick Reed (2023) and Cameron Young last year that talented debutants can put themselves firmly in the mix here against the experienced, more fancied players.

44^th for SG Off The Tee for the full 2024 season is decent enough for me to take a chance on him here this week and he gained strokes on that metric in his three late-season outings on the DP World Tour to suggest that he’s striking the ball well enough off the tee to feature here. Talking of his end of year form, 27^th at the Genesis Championship was followed by 13^th in Abu Dhabi, 7^th at the Earth Course and then 4^th at the Nippon Series JT Cup back on home soil at the start of December. Progressive as well as impressive form that’s kept him active later in the year than many others in this week’s field.

4^th at last year’s Ras Al Khaimah Championship completes a UAE form line of 4/13/7 – all of which were on debut – and another event where he’s flirting with the lead on Sunday isn’t out of the question this week.

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Alex Fitzpatrick 1pt EW 100/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Another player who kept himself busy later into 2024 is Alex Fitzpatrick and he’ll be looking forward to his return to The Emirates this week having caught the eye 12 months ago on course debut.

19^th at Leopard Creek on his last outing meant that the younger of the Fitzpatricks was playing competitive golf as late as the middle of December, and whilst the stats from co-sanctioned events need to be taken with a liberal pinch of salt, 2^nd for SG Off the Tee and 12^th for SG Tee to Green would suggest that his long game was in decent shape – certainly he was driving the ball long and fairly straight, as he had been for the latter part of the autumn – and that’s no bad starting point for this week’s task.

The 26 year-old flashed a bit of form in each of his final four outings of the year, with only the odd slow round here or there preventing a form line of 19/24/43/19 being significantly better and his price being significantly shorter here in Dubai. A humdrum Friday in Abu Dhabi was flanked by otherwise impressive rounds of 66,66 and 67 before he sat 4^th at the Earth Course the following week after round 1 before dropping away. 2^nd after 18 holes and 5^th after 36 on his final appearance of the year in South Africa offers further promise and perhaps his petering out in those tournaments was more about end-of-season fatigue than anything more sinister.

16^th here last year on course debut saw the Sheffield man on the fringes of contention throughout, heading into Sunday in 7^th place before a poor final day round of 74 saw him drop down the leaderboard. He took to the greens well though on this first try, ranking 9^th for SG Putting, whilst also impressing on some of the traditional stats including 11^th for GIR and 4^th for Ball Striking – 12 months on perhaps he’ll improve on that effort should he find himself in a similar position heading into Sunday.

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Andy Sullivan 1pt EW 125/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally let’s take a chance on Andy Sullivan who has plenty more going for him this week than the dismissive price would suggest.

Progressive form at the back end of 2024 of 27,24,14,7 encompassing the Abu Dhabi Championship, DP World Tour Championship, Nedbank and Alfred Dunhill Championship was accompanied by some impressively straight driving and – normal co-sanctioned caveat applies – strong approach and tee-to-green figures from his final outing at Leopard Creek.

A regular fast starter – indeed he’s one to seriously consider for the first round lead once tee times are announced – Andy opened with a pair of 67s here last year before disappearing without trace over the weekend, however his efforts before the festive break would suggest that he’s in better form when it comes to hanging around over the weekend and that excites on a course where he finished 2^nd, 4^th and 6^th in a 4-year stretch between 2015-2018.

2^nd and 4^th from his two attempts at the Fire Course at Jumeirah is further strong Dubai course, as is 2^nd at the 2015 DP World Tour Championship where he led for the first three days before finally being pipped by Rory McIlroy by a stroke on the final day. Two further top 10s in his last 3 attempts at the Earth Course completes a massively impressive resume in the area, and having spent the past week acclimatising and practicing at nearby Dubai Creek, I can see the Nuneaton man rewarding each-way backers here.

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