Course Overview: Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club, as its name not so subtly suggests, is situated alongside the Creek in Dubai and boasts a whole host of golfing, wellbeing and tourist facilities alongside a floodlit par-3 course, as well as a stunning 18-hole championship golf course which will be our focus for the 4 days of tournament play.
Originally designed by Emirates GC architect Karl Litten and opened as just the second golf course in Dubai back in 1993, the layout received an EGD/Thomas Bjorn-inspired revamp in 2004 which bar a few minor hole extensions is what we’ll see this week.
Measuring 7,059 yards from its tips for the par of 71, the layout is built around several artificial lakes as well as the Creek itself meaning that water is both in abundance here, featuring significantly on 11 holes, as well as presenting the professionals with the course’s biggest dangers.
Fairways are pristine and relatively narrow in the main, flanked sparsely by date and palm trees, giving the course a tropical, coastal vibe in contrast with Litten’s more familiar design at the Emirates which we’ll be visiting next week just a few miles away.
Three mid-length par-5s at the 4th, 10th and 13th of between 551 and 569 yards will present birdie and eagle opportunities to those players who can get into position from off the tee, as will the short par-4 3rd and 17th which will play as definite risk-reward holes if the tees are brought up a little.
Although this is the inaugural Dubai Invitational, Dubai Creek G&YC has seen professional action since its opening, having hosted the Dubai Desert Classic in 1999 and 2000 – more of which later – as well as a small number of Asian Tour, MENA Tour and amateur events.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Dubai Invitational that will help to shape a view on players who may play well at this event.
As noted above, this is the inaugural event with some very patchy stats available from various tournaments held here, so course history needs to be considered accordingly: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form/Course Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Course Winners: 2017: MENA Tour, Mathiam Keyser (200 strokes, 3 rounds); 2016: MENA Tour, Rayhan Thomas (201, 3 rounds); 2000: Dubai Desert Classic, Jose Coceres (274, 4 rounds); 1999: Dubai Desert Classic, David Howell (275, 4 rounds); 1997: Asian Tour, Adrian Percey (272, 4 rounds); 1996: Asian Tour, Paul Friedlander (280, 4 rounds).
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.
Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the mid-70s Fahrenheit are expected. Light breezes of 5-10mph, peaking in the afternoons, should make the course play relatively scoreable.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Fortunately we do have some basic stats from the winners of the two Dubai Desert Classic events held here at Dubai Creek around the turn of the century:
- 2000: Jose Coceres (-14); 264 yards (45th), 80.4% fairways (1st), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 58.3% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (10th)
- 1999: David Howell (-13); 256 yards (52nd), 76.8% fairways (13th), 73.6% greens in regulation (14th), 63.2% scrambling (5th), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
Yes the stats are dated, however the challenge of Dubai Creek hasn’t changed dramatically despite the passing of more than two decades and the 2004 renovations, and there may just be enough clues in those two events to help us on our way.
A fresh-faced David Howell triumphed in 1999 at the age of just 23, displaying a strong all-round game into the bargain. With Lee Westwood runner-up and Colin Montgomerie also finishing inside the top 5, it’s no surprise that Driving Accuracy was the standout statistic that week, swiftly followed by GIR. What set Howell apart from the chasing pack was the putter; however in general a strong tee-to-green game was fundamental to get a player into a contending position.
Jose Coceres’ win the following year was driven by a field-leading 80.4% fairways found complimented by 83.3% GIR (2nd), and although windy conditions put more emphasis on scrambling that week, the basic premise of precision over power remains in my view.
The power (or lack of) point deserves to be laboured a little more I think before we move on. Technological improvements combined with improved athleticism in recent years explains the absolute differences in yardage stats, so the relatively short Driving Distance stats detailed above for the winners needs to be taken in context, however relative to the field both Howell and Coceres were towards the bottom of those who made the cut which suggests that precision is the key stat here.
In terms of par-5 scoring, which is often a stat which highlights the nature of a course, no player in either of the recorded renewals got beyond 10-under par for the long holes and Howell (-8 on the par 5s) and Coceres (-5) clearly did plenty of their best work on the other holes.
- Jose Coceres: Par 3: -3; Par 4: -6; Par 5: -5; Birdies: 20; Bogeys/Worse: 5
- David Howell: Par 3: -4; Par 4: -1; Par 5: -8; Eagles: 1; Birdies: 19; Bogeys/Worse: 7
Incoming Form: The 6 course winners all arrived from differing levels of activity and in some cases long breaks, played over a variety of Tours. Nevertheless, each of them had recorded a top 30 finish on their previous start:
- 2017: Mathiam Keyser: MC/MC/5/7/WD/13/57/MC/47/15/16/28
- 2016: Rayhan Thomas: MC/14/2/3
- 2000: Jose Coceres: MC/8/MC/MC/MC/5/MC/55/15/8/30/10
- 1999: David Howell: 37/MC/61/MC/MC/42/49/16/1/MC/49/27
- 1997: Adrian Percey: MC/61/MC/29/9/39/2/MC/63/61/MC/22
- 1996: Paul Friedlander: 15/MC/MC/46/24/50/19/45/41/29/13/15
The only one of the 6 players above to have played Dubai Creek competitively prior to their respective victory was Jose Coceres and he’d missed the cut badly the year before, so there may be little clues in that respect in an event where the vast majority of players are making their course debut.
As with The Sentry last week on the PGA Tour, we have the challenge of second-guessing how players will perform after a break, with some having played little or no competitive golf since the DP World Tour Championship. The short field and new course to many also adds complexity, however there are a few pointers we can take from the course and the previous events that have been played here in the past to give us an angle of attack.
A relatively short course which historically favoured precision over power will appeal to a certain type of player and although the short par-4s and par-5s will present scoring opportunities to the more aggressive types, the danger of a watery grave lurks on many holes.
My selections are as follows:
