Opposing Jon Rahm was ultimately the correct strategy last week with the former OWGR number 1 eventually finishing in a tie for 9th in Madrid, however with the door wide open at halfway neither Shubhankar Sharma nor Grant Forrest could push on from contending positions to reward us. Congratulations to Matthieu Pavon backers who converted at a best price 90/1 on his 185th attempt at winning a title at DP World Tour level.
On to this week we go and the second week of our Spanish Swing takes us to Sotogrande for the Andalucia Masters, however not to our regular Valderrama stop-off; instead we’re heading across the A-7 Motorway and a couple of miles closer to the coast at the Real Club de Golf Sotogrande.
Wyndham Clark is the headline act this week, making the rarest of starts on the DP World Tour, and the bookies have the world number 10 as the best-priced 11/1 favourite. Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk inject further quality into the top end of the field, with a supporting act including the likes of Jordan Smith, Rasmus Hojgaard and Bob Macintyre to name but a few.
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Course Overview. Having built up a wealth of data at Valderrama over the years from the Andalucia Masters and other events held at that most iconic of venues, that history is, for now at least, sadly resigned to the dustbin.
Real Club de Golf Sotogrande takes the reins this year with what promises to be an altogether different test. A smattering of course form exists from the turn of the century with the course hosting elements of European Tour Q School at the time, however for all intents and purposes this is a new challenge for almost all of the field this week.
At 7,099 yards for its par of 72, this Robert Trent Jones design isn’t long by modern day standards and instead uses proximity to the coast and a more exposed style as its main defence. Fairways are wide with pine, cork oaks, eucalyptus and giant palm trees dotted around the perimeters, making this a positional golf course where the emphasis is on the 2nd shot and in. Greens are elevated, placing an emphasis on quality approach play, and fairways and putting surfaces are well bunkered throughout.
Water is in play on a number of holes by virtue of the man-made lakes that litter the course, however with 4 attackable par 5s and a couple of short par 4s, I don’t see this course as anything like the test that Valderrama has presented over the years.
A 2015 renovation returned this course close to Trent Jones’s original design with the greens reduced back in size and the surfaces re-laid with A4 Bentgrass, and for those finding the right parts of greens in the requisite number, birdies and eagles should be forthcoming this week.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Events Winners. 2022: Adrian Otaegui, 60/1; 2021: Matt Fitzpatrick, 14/1; 2020: John Catlin, 125/1; 2019: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 80/1; 2018: Sergio Garcia, 9/2; 2017: Sergio Garcia, 5/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
An active weather front pushing through the region on Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning could dump a couple of inches of rain on the course, accompanied by some fairly strong winds with 20-25mph likely and gusts in excess of 40mph. After that weather clears, the weekend looks much calmer and drier with temperatures edging towards 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. With no DP World Tour history to review, we’re going to have to rely on specification only this week.
Incoming Form: Looking at the recent form of the Andalucia Masters winners and the overriding trend is that all players had been in pretty good nick.
This includes last year’s winner Adrian Otaegui who despite missing the cut at the Dunhill Links had previously been on a run of 7 straight weekends made after his brief foray to LIV golf, included in which was 3rd place finish at the Hero Open.
2021 winner Matt Fitzpatrick had lost a play-off at the Scottish Open and improved through the week on his last start at Wentworth to finish 20th, so wasn’t in bad shape The same applies to John Catlin who, despite being a 125/1 chance, had finished 8th in Austria and 6th in Wales before closing with a round of 68 the week before his victory here in 2020 for some good momentum.
Bezuidenhout has finished 3rd on his last outing in 2019, whereas Garcia had finished 7th the week before his successful defence the previous autumn, included in which was a closing round of 65 to suggest he was rounding into form.
The previous year Sergio had finished 12th and 10th at the final two FedEx Cup PlayOff events on the PGA Tour before returning to Europe and his effort in Italy the week before winning here had shown some promise as he sat 6th going into the weekend. The others all had contending performances to their names in recent weeks too as the stats below confirm:
Adrian Otaegui: 18/7/58/21/42/29/3/44/13/25/13/MC
Matt Fitzpatrick: 4/MC/23/MC/10/55/2/26/57/MC/MC/20
Event Form: A bit of a mixed bag here in terms of event form with John Catlin and Matt Fitzpatrick having missed the cut on their previous attempts, Arian Otaegui and Christiaan Bezuidenhout having middling records, and Sergio Garcia having an incredible record in this.
Of course these results referred to Valderrama though so what relevance they have to this week, if any, remains to be seen:
Adrian Otaegui: 12/MC/17/58
Matt Fitzpatrick: MC
John Catlin: MC
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 29
Sergio Garcia: 10/1/1
Sergio Garcia: 10/1
For me, there will be two aspects to success this week. Firstly, assuming that play continues through the tougher parts of Thursday and Friday, then the ability to handle wind will be key as the forecasted weather system blows through. From there, the weekend should present a soft, scoreable course in relatively benign conditions, where those who can demonstrate an excellent approach game and hot putter may well prevail.
The addition of Wyndham Clark to this week’s field has meant that the in-form Ryan Fox isn’t going off as the single-digit favourite here in Spain, and that makes him backable in my view.
Why Clark is teeing it up this week in a run-of-the-mill DP World Tour event isn’t clear to me – it certainly won’t be for the money with the purse way down on a regular PGA Tour event, let alone the elevated tournaments and Majors that he’s more accustomed to. Perhaps I’m doing the US Open champion a disservice, however Ryder Cup aside where he had a 1-1-1 record, this is his first outing since the Tour Championship where he finished 3rd in 72-hole scoring and he may be a little tournament rusty.
Of course if the Wyndham Clark who won the Wells Fargo Championship and US Open turns up then I could be in trouble, however with an aggregate SG Approach performance in the negative since his win at LACC, I can leave him alone this week.
Ryan Fox, on the other hand, appears to be close to the peak of his powers. 3rd at the Irish Open was fuelled by a field-leading Strokes Gained performance from Off the Tee, and he promptly followed that up with a superb victory at Wentworth for his biggest career title to date, leaving the entire Ryder Cup team in his wake.
9th for SG Tee to Green, 7th for SG Approach and 6th for SG Putting at the Burma Road was an excellent all-round return and anything approaching the same again here in a far weaker field overall will have the Kiwi right in the mix for yet another title.
The metrics falling out of his runner-up finish at St Andrews on his last start have to be taken with a pinch of salt given the multi-course setup and weather issues, however suffice it to say that his final round bogey-free 65 contained some outstanding play, with all 18 greens hit in regulation.
4th at the altogether different test that is Valderrama back in 2021 at least suggests he’s comfortable here in Sotogrande; 15th at the ISPS Handa Championship, 9th at the Catalunya Championship and 4th most recently at last year’s Mallorca Golf Open are slightly more relevant efforts on Spanish soil, and for me he’s the most likely winner here this week. RESULT: T52
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Daniel Hillier 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
It could be a New Zealand 1-2 this week as Daniel Hiller looks to build on his breakthrough season on the DP World Tour and edge a little closer to the final qualifying spots for a PGA Tour card next season.
5th at the KLM Open and 3rd at the BMW International Open paved the way to his maiden victory at this level, eventually winning by two at The Belfry in July, and sitting as he does now inside the top 30 of the Race to Dubai, another victory would likely seal the deal for a Stateside season next year.
12th at the Irish Open following an understandable post-win lull was positive, and 9th last week after a sluggish start could suggest that his game’s heading towards a peak once again. Rounds of 67, 66 and 66 to close was amongst the most competitive final 54 holes on display in Madrid, and his best putting performance since that win at the British Masters should instil some confidence ahead of this week’s task.
As with the rest of this week’s field, Hillier will be making his competitive course debut this week, however his wider Spanish form offers enough encouragement to suggest he can hit the ground running. 3 top-10 finishes in Spain from his Challenge Tour days includes one of his two victories at that level in Costa Brava, and after last week’s effort he should be approaching this week in positive fashion. RESULT: T19
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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
If approach play does indeed prove to be key this week then Wakefield ace Dan Bradbury is worth of support.
Ace is an appropriate description for the Englishman given that he’s now made three of them on Tour this season, equalling Miguel Angel Jimenez’s all-time record of holes in one for a single season, and his flag-hunting prowess could go down well in Sotogrande this week.
6th last week in Madrid was the 24 year-old’s best finish since securing his breakthrough victory at last year’s Joburg Open, with that the aforementioned tee shot at the 226 yard par-3 3rd fuelling him to a best-of-the-day round of 63 on Saturday, which he followed up adeptly with a 66 to close on Sunday. 11th for SG Off the Tee and 5th for SG Tee to Green were strong metrics on the week, trumped by a field-leading performance in both the SG Approach and GIR categories. Put simply, his irons are working very nicely indeed.
A change in venue this week will help level the playing field for less experienced players like Dan who’s not even reached 30 starts yet at DP World Tour level, and sitting in 51st place on the Race to Dubai he’s got every reason to give this week the fullest of attention with the Earth Course looming large. RESULT: T13
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Pablo Larrazabal 1pt EW 90/1 (5EW, 1/4) with Betfred
The prospect of a wide off the tee, 2nd shot course on Spanish soil with a bit of wind in play for the first couple of days screams Pablo Larrazabal to me, and the 9-time DP World Tour winner is available at a more than backable each-way price, despite having won twice already this season and four times in the last 18 months.
Having harped on about SG Approach earlier in this preview, you could be excused for asking the question as to how Pablo fits as he’s not always one to pound greens in regulation. For me, the dimensions of the course allow the 40 year-old to get away with far more from off the tee – he’s lost in excess of 5 strokes from off the tee on each of his last three starts for context – which in turn should give him far more chance of making birdie chances with his approaches rather than miracle recovery shots.
When it clicks with Larrazabal he’s a formidable opponent, as is evidenced by his recent wins as well as those further back in his career where he held off the likes of Colin Montgomerie, Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson when capturing his first 4 wins. The putter did the bulk of the donkeywork in his more recent MyGolfLife Open and KLM Open wins, however last year’s ISPS Handa Championship and this year’s Korea Championship it was SG Approach rankings of 4th and 6th respectively which really stuck out.
The Barcelona man was buoyant following the reception he got from the Madrid crowd on his way to 20th last week and another week in his homeland could result in more success. RESULT: MC
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Matthias Schmid 1pt EW 90/1 (6EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Finally I’ll take a chance on talented German Matthias Schmid who’s taking a step down from PGA Tour level to play here in Spain this week, having shown some good form in patches last week in Las Vegas.
26th at the Shriners Open was another middling performance overall in a season that’s failed to live up to the early promise that a 6th place finish at The American Express showed, however scratch beneath the surface and we find an opening round of 65 which was beaten by just 5 other players, and a closing 63 which was the standout round of Sunday that nobody else could match.
Of course the pressure was off after a Saturday 74 left him way off the pace with 18 holes to go, however if nothing else he’ll have some positive momentum heading into this week. 19th for SG Tee to Green, 14th for SG Approach and 6th for SG Off the Tee were the long game metrics to fall out of his performance, and with 21 birdies and an eagle on the week he’ll undoubtedly be pleased to see some of his good work being rewarded with lower scores.
11th in Mallorca back in 2021 is the 25 year-old’s best result on Spanish soil, coming at Golf Santa Ponsa which shares a number of characteristics to this week’s test in terms of length, proximity to the coast and agronomy. He opened with a 64 that week and sat in 6th place heading into Sunday before a flat round of 71 put paid to any aspirations of a maiden victory. With far more experience of golf at a higher level nowadays, perhaps Matti can push on this week on a similar test. RESULT: 2nd
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