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Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm produced wins last week at 22/1 and 10/1 respectively. Both victories were ominously impressive, with Fleetwood moving to World Number 12 after successfully defending his Abu Dhabi title and delivering another great winner for our European Tour previewer Paul Williams. Rahm on the other hand showed that he’s both motivated and more than capable of challenging for the World Number 1 position by defeating 200/1 shot Andrew Landry in a playoff at the CareerBuilder Challenge. He travels to San Diego this week, set to defend his Farmers Insurance Open title he won here 12 months ago.

This week is the ‘real’ start of the PGA Tour in many fans’ eyes though as we return to La Jolla, just North of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at the iconic Torrey Pines. A high-class field including Rickie Fowler, John Rahm, Justin Rose and Jason Day have been attracted to the classical Torrey Pines course on the Pacific coastline. But naturally the full focus on the golfing media and betting public will be on the return of Tiger Woods, who makes his PGA Tour return this week.

Course Guide: The Farmers Insurance Open is played on the South and North courses at Torrey Pines. The mammoth 7,698 yard South Course, which was re-designed in 2001 by Rees Jones prior to the 2008 U.S. Open, hosts 3 rounds in total with each entrant also playing 18 holes on the North Course on Thursday or Friday. The world-famous South Course, which runs above the Pacific Ocean, is a classical design that plays as the longest course on the PGA Tour. Penal rough, specialised Kikuyugrass fairways and green complex designs that repel approach shots makes scoring particularly difficult. The North Course, which has received a Tom Weiskopf-inspired renovation since Brandt Snedeker won here 12 months ago, is a relatively short Par 72 that will continue to set up for low scoring which can prove pivotal in tournament play. To add to the complexity, the South Course features Poa Annua greens whereas the North features freshly installed pure Bentgrass greens.

Torrey Pines South Course, San Diego, South California: Designer: Bell 1957, Rees Jones re-design 2001; Course Type: Coastal, Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,698 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1; Fairways: Kikuyugrass; Rough: Kikuyugrass 3.5″; Greens: 5,800 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 72.36 (+0.36), Difficulty Rank 21 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.66 (+0.66), Difficulty Rank 16 of 43 courses. 2014: 73.80 (+1.80), Rank 6 of 52 courses. 2015: 73.52 (+1.52), Rank 6 of 52 courses, 2016: 74.50 (+2.50), Rank 2 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.77 (+0.77), Rank 14 of 50 courses.

Torrey Pines North Course: Designer: 1957, Tom Weiskopf re-design 2016; Course Type: Coastal, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,258 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Fairways Bermudagrass, Perennial Rye, Kikuyugrass mix; Rough: Perennial Rye with Kikuyugrass 3.5″; Greens:6,400 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.55 (-2.45), Difficulty Rank 47 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.67 (-1.33), Difficulty Rank 35 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.24 (-1.76), Rank 44 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.23 (-1.77), Rank 46 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.93 (-1.07), Rank 38 of 50 courses. Re-Design 2017: 71.28 (-0.72), Rank 32 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Torrey Pines South Course and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29; 350:27.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:32; 300:33; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 54 yards wide; 275:58; 300:62; 325:57; 350:61.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 39 yards wide; 275:38; 300:33; 325:29; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:26; 325:25; 350:24.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:28; 325:28; 350:24.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:25; 300:24; 325:23; 350:22.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Rees Jones & Tom Weiskopf designs include (incorporates re-designs):

• North Course, Torrey Pines (2017 Farmers Insurance Open)

Rees Jones

• GC of Houston – Houston Open
• Aronimink GC – 2010,2011 A&T National
• Blue Course, Congressional CC – 2011 U.S. Open + 2012-2014 & 2016 National
• Blue Course, Royal Montreal GC – 2014 RBC Canadian Open
• Hazeltine – 2009 PGA Championship
• Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
• Baltusrol – 2016 PGA Championship
• Bethpage Black – 2009 U.S Open + 2012/2016 The Barclays
• Dubsdread, Cog Hill GCC – 2009,2010,2011 BMW Championship
• East Lake GC – Tour Championship

Tom Weiskopf

• Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale – Waste management Phoenix Open

Course Overview: I’ll talk about the classical and sometimes brutal Torrey Pines South Course which hosts 54 holes of action this weekend in a short while, but it’s worth recognising that the North Course received a Tom Weiskopf re-design which was played for the first time last year. The course was effectively lengthened, re-routed and featured new pure Bentgrass green complexes. Scoring was slightly up as players became accustomed to the nuances of the course, especially the greens, and it’s true that the North Course is no longer a total pushover. However if you want to contend, you need to make a score on the easier course. Expect scoring still to be low on the North Course.

Rees Jones’ South Course is naturally the star of this tournament. The longest course on the PGA Tour schedule features six 450+ yard par-4s whilst 3 of its 4 par-5s are over 550 yards. The course is tree-lined and features Poa Annua greens the like of which are only found on the West coast and North East of the United States plus Canada. Both courses also feature Kikuyugrass rough, the likes of which are only seen here and at Riviera each year on the PGA Tour. As many of you witnessed in 2016, conditions across the final round – which was completed over Sunday and Monday – were harsh on the South Course. But even across Thursday to Saturday, the South was a technical test and much of that is down to the fact that rough was re-seeded prior to the 2014 renewal which has significantly increased the difficulty of the task. Longer and thicker Kikuyugrass rough means that the South Course is extremely difficult in terms of proximity to the hole from the rough since the re-seed. Given firm conditions which we should see this week, Greens in Regulation percentages have also slumped since the re-seed, with the South Course ranking 11th (2016), 5th (2015) and 4th (2014) toughest for Greens in Regulation Percentage, compared to 26th (2013), 34th (2012), 13th (2011) and 28th (2010).

However the true differences between the South and North courses are quite stark. Birdie or Better Conversion on the South Course last year ranked 13th toughest on the PGA Tour as a whole, compared to 36th toughest for the North Course. Naturally the North was a new test and we were playing softened golf courses as well, so that split is likely to get bigger this year. It’s also imperative to note that the South Course’s Poa Annua greens are notoriously difficult to putt on, so look for those who have done well here previously, or at Pebble, Bethpage Black and of course Oakmont.

Winners: 2017: Jon Rahm (-13); 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6); 2015: Jason Day (-9); 2014: Scott Stallings (-9); 2013: Tiger Woods (-15); 2012: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2011: Bubba Watson (-16); 2010: Ben Crane (-13).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 5 of my published predictor are Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and Brian Harman.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Andalucía Valderrama Masters / CJ Cup and includes PGA Tour and European Tour events, plus the Hero World Challenge. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) K.J. Choi; 2) Kyle Stanley; 3) Brian Harman / Brian Harman; 5) Alex Noren; 6) Justin Rose; 7) Francesco Molinari; 8) Jason Day; 9) Brice Garnett; 10) Kevin Streelman; 11) Emiliano Grillo; 12) Brendan Steele; 13) Rickie Fowler; 14) Tyler Duncan / John Huh / David Lingmerth; 17) Patrick Cantlay / Lucas Glover / Adam Hadwin / Hideki Matsuyama.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Billy Horschel; 2) Kevin Streelman; 3) Justin Rose; 4) Francesco Molinari; 5) Rickie Fowler; 6) Kyle Stanley; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Brendan Steele; 9) Lucas Glover; 10) Keegan Bradley / Patrick Cantlay / Brian Harman / Gary Woodland; 14) Charley Hoffman / J.J. Spaun; 16) Tony Finau / Shane Lowry; 18) Alex Cejka / Luke Donald / Charles Howell III / Peter Uihlein.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Rickie Fowler; 2) Shane Lowry; 3) Jason Day; 4) Phil Mickelson; 5) Ollie Schniederjans; 6) Patrick Cantlay; 7) Maverick McNealy / Cameron Smith; 9) Grayson Murray; 10) Marc Leishman; 11) Adam Hadwin / Anirban Lahiri; 13) Kyle Stanley; 14) Hideki Matsuyama; 15) Padraig Harrington; 16) Billy Horschel; 17) Alex Noren; 18) Peter Uihlein; 19) Jon Rahm; 20) Brian Harman.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Jon Rahm 55/1; 2016: Snedeker 18/1; 2015: Day 14/1; 2014: Stallings 250/1; 2013: Woods 15/2; 2012: Snedeker 22/1; 2011: Watson 66/1; 2010: Crane 80/1; Average: 64/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 84/1.

Historical Weather:

2017: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 58. Wind NW 8-15 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 61. Wind NW 8-15 mph, with gusts of 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 64. Wind NW 8-14 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 67. Wind NW 8-15 mph.

2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 67. Wind WNW 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 66. Wind WNW 8-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 61 degrees. Wind WSW 12-15 mph. Sunday: Overcast, with heavy rains off and on throughout the day. Strong SW winds were sustained at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 45 mph. Play was again suspended at 1:57 p.m. A total of 49 players were left on the course. Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 60 degrees. NW wind sustained at 15-30 mph, with gusts to 35 mph.

2015: Thursday: Fog delays in the morning. After the fog, it became sunny in the afternoon. High of 70. Wind WNW at 6-12 mph. Friday: The restart, scheduled to begin at 8:30 a.m., didn’t start until 9 a.m. due to fog. Fog gave way to afternoon sun. High of 70. Wind WNW at 6-12mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 71. Wind WNW at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 72. Wind NW at 8-15 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for La Jolla, San Diego, California is here. I’m expecting firm and fast conditions this week akin to 2014 and 2015. The course did get a good dousing 2 weeks ago, but since then has received very little and we know that Southern California had major drought issues across November and December. Wind-wise expect breeze in the afternoons, with Friday gusting up to 15mph. Temperatures will be relatively cold across the first 36 holes of action, but warming to 20-23 degrees Celsius across the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of the Farmers Insurance since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2017, Jon Rahm (-13). 297 yards (16th), 60.7% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 28’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 68.4 % scrambling (10th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2016, Brandt Snedeker (-6). 289 yards (45th), 41.1% fairways (57th), 66.7% greens in regulation (14th), 32’9″ proximity to hole (4th), 62.5 % scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (16th).
• 2015, Jason Day (-9). 309 yards (1st), 46.4% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 42’5″ proximity to hole (61st), 71.4 % scrambling (8th), 1.76 putts per GIR (33rd).
• 2014, Scott Stallings (-9). 292 yards (24th), 50.0% fairways (45th), 66.7% greens in regulation (23rd), 42’0″ proximity to hole (64th), 62.5 % scrambling (24th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2013, Tiger Woods (-15). 307 yards (2nd), 57.1% fairways (17th), 69.4% greens in regulation (34th), 38’0″ proximity to hole (45th), 59.1% scrambling (42nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2012, Brandt Snedeker (-16). 285 yards (47th), 58.9% fairways (13th), 70.8% greens in regulation (33rd), 34’10” proximity to hole (27th), 71.4% scrambling (6th), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2011, Bubba Watson (-16). 317 yards (1st), 50.0% fairways (29th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 25’10” proximity to hole (1st), 46.2% scrambling (54th), 1.73 putts per GIR (26th).
• 2010, Ben Crane (-13). 273 yards (51st), 67.9% fairways (10th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 30’8″ proximity to hole (6th), 44.4% scrambling (46th), 1.79 putts per GIR (42nd).

Tournament Skill Average:

• Driving Distance: 23rd, Driving Accuracy: 30th, Greens in Regulation: 16th, Proximity to Hole: 26th, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 18th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the Farmers Insurance sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Brandt Snedeker: “I love, what I love most about poa annua is you have to be aggressive and you have got to hit a putt almost perfect. You got to give it a chance to go in, you got to get it rolling hard on the green. And I think that’s what my stroke does best, because I hit them aggressive, get the ball rolling really fast. When you do that, the ball holds its line. If you miss a putt a little bit, or hit a weak putt, it’s going to bump off. And I love it because it eliminates half the guys, like Kevin Kisner. Because they don’t like it and they don’t want to be on it. So, it makes my putting even better. Because they don’t want to be a part of it and if they get a bad bounce they think the greens are awful, I’m never coming back here, whatever, which helps me.“

Dustin Johnson: “The golf course I think sets up well. It sets up good to my eye. Just got to go out and execute. But around here, too, it’s all about where you leave your ball, controlling your ball, leaving yourself uphill putts so you can be aggressive with it. If you’re putting downhill all day, it’s hard to make putts, it just is. I don’t care how good a putter you are, it’s just tough. So controlling the golf ball, controlling your distance, and leaving yourself in the right spot is a big key.“

Phil Mickelson: “I think the length is a challenge and the firmness of the greens is a challenge. I think that patience is going to be a big challenge, because when you tuck the pins here, every green repels from the outside to the centre. So, every ball’s working to the centre of the green and it’s very difficult to get it close to a lot of the tough pins. So, you have to be patient. You have to accept 30, 40 footers, that you just can’t knock it too close, and you have to make some putts. I think that patience will be the key.“

Jimmy Walker: “Yeah, you said it, it’s tough. So any time you shoot under par out here is pretty good on the South Course. Even with light winds, it’s still really tough. They tuck the pins, greens have got a little firmness to them, so it’s tough to get it close. You want to throw the ball behind the hole and spin it, but it just won’t do it.“

J.B. Holmes: “The rough probably plays worse than it did at the U.S. Open when they had it here in 2008. The Kikuyu rough was nasty, but you could also get it where it would set up on a tee. It would either drop down to the bottom and you couldn’t hit anything or it was up on the tee. So it was kind of 50/50. Where, this week, if you hit it in there, you just have a bad lie. So you’re not going to be able to hit it very far. Most of the ones I hit in the rough have been bad lies. I’ll get a decent one every now and then, but I wouldn’t say I really got a good lie in the rough this week yet.“

Jason Day: “You know what, it’s just, it’s a lot of a patience game out there. Especially with how this course is, how tough it is around here now. It feels like a U.S. Open. If you’re not hitting fairways, the rough is so brutal that where the pins are tucked, you hit it to 30, 40 feet. If you miss a lot of fairways and you’re hitting it to 30, 40 feet, it’s very difficult to hole those putts. So, it’s just about just getting it on the green, maybe snagging a long putt here or there, and really trying to capitalize on the good drives off the tee which give you the shorter club in and an opportunity to get at the flags. Because the pins are very difficult today. The greens are very firm and fast. So with a wedge they’re still bouncing a good five to 10 yards. So, it’s very difficult. It’s a fun challenge.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Farmers Insurance Open winners:

• 2017 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 77th, Round 2: 21st, Round 3: 13th.
• 2016 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 90th, Round 2: 57th, Round 3: 27th.
• 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 95th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 8th.
• 2014 – Scott Stallings: Round 1: 63rd, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2013 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 6th.
• 2011 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 54th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd
• 2010 – Ben Crane: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2 5th, Round 3: 2nd.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Jon Rahm: 34th PGAW/50th OHL Classic/15th Shriners/15th Silverado.
• Brandt Snedeker: 2nd Sony/3rd Kapalua/1st Shark Shoot/MC Aus PGA.
• Jason Day: 17th Sony/3rd Kapalua/1st Shark Shoot/5th World Challenge.
• Scott Stallings: 58th PGAW/MC OHL Classic/MC McGladrey/47th CIMB.
• Tiger Woods: MC Abu/4th World Challenge/4th CIMB/8th Tour.
• Brandt Snedeker: 8th PGAW/13th CIMB/32nd McGladrey/16th Tour.
• Bubba Watson: MC PGAW/25th ToC/10th Shark Shoot/14th World Challenge.
• Ben Crane: 52nd PGAW/24th Disney/13th Fry’s.com Open/19th Shriners.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Brandt Snedeker, Tiger Woods.
• 3 – Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Jimmy Walker.
• 2 – J.J. Henry, Hunter Mahan, Brendan Steele.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Ben Crane, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, James Hahn, Padraig Harrington, Billy Horschel, Russell Knox, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O’Hair, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Scott Stallings, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

Some interesting trends have established themselves and help to explain the poor Round 1 positions of recent winners. Since 2011, all winners have had a South/North Course draw across the opening 36 holes – the advantage of having a solid round under the belt on the South Course, seemingly freeing up contenders on the North Course on Friday. For those who like to bet in-play or trade, it’s also worth recognising that only Tiger Woods since 2008 has led (2008 & 2013) going into the final round and gone on to capture the title.

Torrey Pines is one of the most iconic and classical golf courses in the world and naturally its association with Tiger Woods across both this tournament and the U.S. Open adds kudos. The winners’ list since 2000 was exclusively made up of Major winners and previous PGA Tour winners, until Jon Rahm’s dramatic victory here 12 months ago. US players dominate the champions list, but Jon Rahm and Jason Day in 2015 added their names to an exclusive list of international winners which reads Gary Player (1963) and Jose Maria Olazabal (2002). If an international player is going to triumph, they need to be top-notch.

So what’s the right recipe for success this week? Well both the long bomber and the accurate type with a great short game can contend around Torrey. 2010, 2012 and 2016 saw Ben Crane and Brandt Snedeker triumph, But Bubba Watson, Tiger Woods, Scott Stallings, Jason Day and Jon Rahm are all longer hitters. So realistically we need a 285+ yard driver. Ideally they will have course experience, but Rahm became the first player since 1957 to win on course debut here 12 months ago. He’s a little bit special though, I think you would agree! I’m working on targeting players who played well on testing, old-style courses in 2017. As you can see, previous winners here have all recorded strong results on classical or technical tracks in the season prior to winning here:

• Watson – 3rd Copperhead, 2nd Whistling Straits (PGA Championship)
• Snedeker – 4th TPC San Antonio – 1st Harbour Town – 11th Congressional (US Open)
• Woods – 2nd PGA National – 1st Muirfield Village – 1st Congressional
• Stallings – 4th Colonial – 4th Muirfield Village – 2nd St Jude
• Day – 2nd Torrey Pines -4th Pinehurst -2nd Ridgewood – 4th East Lake
• Snedeker – 1st Pebble Beach – 8th Chambers Bay (U.S. Open) – 2nd Colonial
• Rahm – 3rd Congressional – 2nd Glen Abbey

Bookmaker Offers: Latest offers and extended each-way places are detailed below.

My selections are as follows: