After the trials and tribulations of the Dunhill Links, on to this week we go and back to the exacting test that is the Albatros Course at Le Golf National for the Open de France, which we last saw back in August when it hosted the Olympic Golf tournament for both the men and the women.
The DP World Tour is rapidly approaching its business end of the season, however this week’s field is undeniably down a notch or two in terms of quality compared to recent events. Nevertheless we still have the likes of Billy Horschel, who rates as the bookies favourite at around 12/1, in attendance alongside Rasmus Hojgaard, Matt Wallace and Thriston Lawrence who all rate shorter than 20/1 this week.
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Albatros Course, Le Golf National, Paris, France. Designer: Hubert Chesneau, 1990; Par: 71; Length: 7,247 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Rough: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Greens: Bent/Meadow Grass, 12’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. Le Golf National is always set up strongly for this event and danger lurks on many holes if you miss fairways with water at the start and end of each round.
The 7,247 yard, par-71 stadium course was designed to test the very best golfers with a premium on accurate driving and, in particular, approaches to difficult, undulating greens. Missing greens isn’t a great option here as scrambling is tough, so attacking from the fairway has to be the only real strategy and finding the right parts of greens with any consistency is only really possible from the short stuff.
The last few renewals have seen a mix of dry conditions (2010, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2022) and wet (2011, 2012) and a combination of both (2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2023); wet or dry the rough here is amongst the very toughest on the European Tour, plus some of the holes are pretty brutal in terms of length – the 17th (480 yards) and 18th (471 yards) will play amongst the most difficult on the week.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open de France that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the region is here.
The remnants of Hurricane Kirk are due to blow through France on Wednesday which is likely to mean a very soggy start should play commence as planned on Thursday morning. The tournament days should be far less eventful in the aftermath of the pre-event weather with light winds and the odd glimpse of sunshine, however temperatures will be on the cool side throughout, topping out in the mid-50s Fahrenheit.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 12 winners at Le Golf National gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:
2023, Ryo Hisatsune (-14). 67.9% fairways (6th), 79.2% greens in regulation (6th), 66.7% scrambling (14th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2022, Guido Migliozzi (-16). 50% fairways (44th), 73.6% greens in regulation (14th), 84.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts (-12). 57.1% fairways (33rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 55.0% scrambling (30th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)
2018, Alex Noren (-7). 75% fairways (2nd), 75% greens in regulation (5th), 55.6% scrambling (8th), 1.76 putts per GIR (37th)
2017, Tommy Fleetwood (-12). 76.8% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6% scrambling (9th), 1.84 putts per GIR (53rd)
2016, Thongchai Jaidee (-11). 62.5% fairways (22nd), 69.% greens in regulation (18th), 68.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (3rd)
2015, Bernd Wiesberger (-13). 55.4% fairways (45th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.80 putts per GIR (33rd)
2014, Graeme McDowell (-5). 62.5% fairways (17th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 56.5% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (4th).
2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 71.4% fairways (15th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 73.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (29th).
2012, Marcel Siem (-8). 73.2% fairways (2nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 63.2% scrambling (4th), 1.78 putts per GIR (32nd).
2011, Thomas Levet (-7). 67.9% fairways (38th), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.4% scrambling (8th), 1.77 putts per GIR (19th).
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11). 76.8% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 56.3% scrambling (38th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
In addition, we have the Men’s Olympic Golf which was held here in the summer, won by Scottie Scheffler:
2024, Scottie Scheffler (-19). 69.6% fairways (18th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 76.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (20th)
Le Golf National is perennially described as a course where tee-to-green excellence prevails and I agree with that to an extent; however minimising bogeys with an excellent short game shouldn’t be underestimated here either.
For a player to contend here they’re going to have to find the vast majority of greens in regulation or minimise bogeys with an excellent week around the greens; the winner is ultimately likely to excel in one or both areas over the four days.
On the subject of scrambling, last year’s winner Ryo Hisatsune ranked 14th in the field on that count, continuing a solid trend we’ve seen from winners and contenders here at Paris National.
On the same theme, Guido Migliozzi led the field for Scrambling in 2023 and 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2019 ranked inside the top 17 for getting up and down. Alex Noren sat 8th on that count after 72 holes in 2018; Tommy Fleetwood ranked 9th the year before and runner-up Peter Uihlein led the field with an excellent 82.6%. Thongchai Jaidee ranked 2nd in the field for getting the ball up and down in 2016; players ranked 1st to 5th for scrambling finished inside the top 6 overall in 2015; 1st, 2nd and 6th for scrambling finished inside the final top 5 in 2014; likewise in 2013 players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th for scrambling finished inside the top 6; 2012 had players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th for scrambling finish inside the top 4 and 2011 had similar stats with 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th ranked players for scrambling finishing inside the top 7.
This all makes sense when you consider that the greens here are designed to be played firm and fast so they’ll be difficult to hold for all but the very best tee-to-green practitioners in anything but soft conditions.
Stroke Gained Stats: From the three French Opens and the Olympics where Strokes Gained stats were captured, a consistent story is emerging with both SG Approach and SG tee to Green dominating.
Again, in terms of the Olympics we also have Scottie Scheffler’s stats to peruse, with the world number 1 actually losing strokes with the putter overall on the week:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Form-wise there’s a really mixed bag when looking at the winners in recent years. Ryo Hisatsune had been playing solid golf over the summer months with 5 top-15 finishes from 7 starts since July, however missed cuts in Ireland and at Wentworth would before winning here would have put plenty of punters off the scent.
Guido Migliozzi’s solitary top 10 finish in 2022 had come in Holland back in May, and he’d missed 11 cuts in total in the year before finding a little more consistency in the weeks leading up to his victory here 2 years ago. Nicolas Colsaerts is another case in point from 2019 with a solitary top-20 finish to his name in his previous 11 starts. That effort was on his penultimate start though at the Spanish Open where he closed with a round of 64, so there was a little bit of positivity to latch onto.
Alex Noren was clearly in good nick in 2018 having recorded 4 consecutive top-25 finishes, as was Tommy Fleetwood who’d finished 4th at the US Open and 6th at the BMW International Open immediately prior to his success here 5 years ago; Jaidee hadn’t recorded a single top-10 finish in 2016 prior to winning; Wiesberger had finished 27th in Germany the week before and 2nd in Ireland, however in between those results were 4 missed cuts; McDowell improved on his 6th place finish in Ireland on his previous start before defending his title 8 years ago and was in the middle of his win-or-bust run when he arrived here the year before with form of MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC; Marcel Siem was in decent nick with 4 top-10s to his name in 2012 prior to victory, whereas Tomas Levet hadn’t recorded a top 10 all season prior to his emotional (and for him painful) victory the year before.
Jimenez had missed 3 cuts in his last 5 attempts before his triumph here in 2010; Kaymer was coming into form in 2009 when he won, however he’d missed the cut the week before; Larrazabal was a shock outsider who came through qualifying in 2008; Storm had managed a couple of top 10s in his last 10 starts in 2007; Bickerton had missed 4 of 5 cuts in 2006 and Remesy’s successful defence in 2005 came off the back of a very poor season. All in all a very mixed bag.
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 52/12/17/17/MC/MC/8/MC/49
Course Form (back to 2010): It’s also interesting to note that 13 of the past 17 winners here had previously recorded a top-25 or better on this course prior to their success, so looking for players with a decent enough track record here has generally proven to be a positive strategy if you can overlook the past two French Opens:
Since 2010, course form of the winners here is as follows:
2023, Ryo Hisatsune: Debut
2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 23/53/MC/54/MC/11/11/59/MC/22/55/MC
2011, Thomas Levet: MC/MC/MC/50/15/34/68/MC/58/30/69/MC
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: MC/23/23/8/55/MC/MC/66/25
A soggy start to the event is likely to mean better scoring than some other renewals, although this course can’t be taken for granted and danger still lurks on every hole. Le Golf National is often described as having inland links characteristics and players with a liking for that style of golf often excel here.
My Final FedEx Open de France Tips Are As Follows:
Thorbjorn Olesen 2.5pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
The short prices about recent winners Billy Horschel and Rasmus Hojgaard don’t appeal massively this week with the pair missing the Saturday night cut at St Andrews, the feeling being that perhaps their form has already peaked in the past few weeks whereas Thorbjorn Olesen’s immediate form may well be on upward trajectory.
Since returning from his season on the PGA Tour, a missed cut at Wentworth has been flanked by otherwise progressive form of 42nd in Denmark, 33rd at The Belfry, 12th at Royal County Down and 12th again last week at the Home of Golf. Last week’s effort also saw the Dane win the team competition alongside Irish businessman Dermot Desmond as the pair combined to shoot a Sunday 59 to take the title by two strokes from the Hattons.
A cold Le Golf National should suit Thunderbear more than most – indeed his 2015 Dunhill Links victory came in similarly chilly conditions – and the 34 year-old has sufficient power to tame the soggy turf conditions that should dry out as the tournament progresses.
2nd on debut here at Le Golf National back in 2011, Olesen has gone on to finish 3rd in 2017 and hasn’t been outside the top 20 on his last 3 attempts on the course, the most recent of which was 14th place in the men’s Olympics back in August. With Paris National playing a little easier back in the summer, Thorbjorn managed to hit 73% of fairways and rank 5th in the field for accuracy to suggest that he’s got the measure of how to stay out of the worst of the trouble here.
The 8-time DP World Tour winner had made just 2 bogeys all week up to the 70th hole of the Dunhill Links on Sunday before a late blip, and if he can continue in that vein this week then he could go very close. RESULT: T2
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Yannik Paul 1.5pts EW 40/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Star Sports
Jordan Smith was tempting and has been attracting some good early money for this week’s French Open, presumably as punters put together finishes of 7th and 2nd here at Le Golf National on his last two attempts as well as some solid recent form. A little further down the list though we find Yannik Paul whose credentials are very similar both from a course and current form perspective and he’s my preference.
8th here on debut in 2022 and 6th last year, Paul has taken to the task well here in Paris which isn’t overly surprising given his ball-striking prowess as the course really should suit his game.
3rd for SG Approach for the full season last year tells us that the foundations of the German’s game are ideal for this week’s test, and although he’s not quite been firing on all cylinders this season there’s no doubt that he’s heading back in the right direction in that respect with his collated Strokes Gained rounds last week placing him 5th in the field for Approach.
18th at the BMW PGA Championship and 24th the week after in Spain means it’s 3 solid efforts on the spin for the 30 year-old as he looks to cement his place in the Race to Dubai top 70 ahead of Abu Dhabi next month, having slipped inside that mark to 66th courtesy of his effort last week. RESULT: T2
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Frederic Lacroix 1pt EW 55/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet
Angel Hidalgo’s win at the Spanish Open the week before last provided the local fans with reason to celebrate and FredericLacroix will be looking for something similar this week in Paris where he was born, raised and currently resides.
Lacroix’s career has followed a similar path to that of Hidalgo with lower-level success on the Alps Tour leading to a breakthrough this year, however I’d argue that the Frenchman’s ceiling is a little higher than that of the Spaniard. One of Frederic’s wins came at the 2019 Saint-Malo Golf Open in France and with 4th, 8th and 6th from 3 of his last 4 return visits at all levels he seems comfortable on home soil.
40th here in 2019 is the 26 year-old’s best professional effort on a course that he’s no doubt more au fait with than many of this week’s field, however he was a newly promoted Challenge Tour player at the time who’d missed 4 of his last 6 cuts at that level before arriving here, so a Saturday 66 which took him into the top 20 heading into Sunday should be seen as a positive in my view.
12th for the season for SG Off the Tee is encouraging given the soggy conditions likely underfoot, and 10th for SG Tee to Green is very much aligned with the winners we’ve seen here since Strokes Gaines stats have been captured. 23rd for Scrambling for 2024 completes the argument in my view and having rested since missing the cut at Wentworth he should be ready for a final charge as he looks to grab one of the 10 PGA Tour cards available, of which he’s very narrowly sitting in 11th place. RESULT: MC
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Matthew Baldwin 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Finally, a little further down the field Matthew Baldwin caught my eye at a healthy 3-figure price and his effort alone at Wentworth last month warrants some support here.
Having briefly spent some time as an Amazon delivery driver in order to make ends meet before embarking on the 2022 Challenge Tour season, the 38 year-old has undoubtedly moved on to bigger and better things since then having lapped the field at the 2023 SDC Championship to win his maiden DP World Tour title by 7 strokes before standing toe-to-toe with some of the biggest names in European golf in Surrey 3 weeks ago.
Leading after the first and second rounds at the BMW PGA Championship, the Southport man couldn’t quite keep up with the pace over the weekend and eventually finished 4th for a £300k payday and a haul of Race to Dubai points. After last week’s 35th place finish in Scotland that sees him inside the cut line for Abu Dhabi at present and at 56th in the rankings just a good result away from securing what would be a first start in 10 years at the Earth Course in November.
5th in 2014 is Baldwin’s best result here at Le Golf National in the year that he made the season’s finale, and with a season-long ranking of 21st for SG Approach he has the raw ingredients to successfully navigate his way around this challenging layout once again and threaten the each-way places. RESULT: MC
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