Golf Betting System podcast colleague Paul Williams landed Lucas Glover at 90/1 at the Wyndham Championship last week. Awesome work! He also had a part each-way return on Brendon Todd (90/1), as I did on J.T. Poston (30/1) and Cam Davis (40/1). If you were on-board then congratulations!
On the PGA Tour we now move into the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The FedEx Cup has grown massively in popularity since its inception in 2007 – the spectacle of watching The Tour’s best golfers fight it out has become a real highlight of the golfing calendar. And that spectacle is now packed into just 3 events across consecutive weeks. For the first time a reduced top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings are eligible to play this week’s FedEx St Jude Championship in Memphis. The top 50 then move onto the BMW Championship hosted at Olympia Fields, and then the top 30 qualify for the Tour Championship at East Lake. We will know who the 2023 FedEx Cup champion is on the 27th August.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the FedEx St Jude Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: We have an advantage at the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2023 as the first leg takes place at TPC Southwind – a course we have seen every year on the PGA Tour, going back to 1989. The FedEx St Jude Classic was played here up to 2018, with the WGC St Jude Invitational taking place here across 2019 (Champion: Brooks Koepka), 2020 (Champion: Justin Thomas) and 2021 (Champion: Abraham Ancer). 2022 saw FedEx get their tournament introduced as the 1st Leg of their title-sponsored PlayOffs.
A mid-score kind of course due to its par of 70, its length, plenty of water in-play, and small green complexes, it’s not only the course that’s difficult as sweltering temperatures in Memphis, allied to high humidity, traditionally turns this tournament into a bit of a grind. Bermuda rough at 2.5″ doesn’t help the scoring and Southwind also features 8 par-4s of over 450 yards, plus as a traditional Par 70 format, only 2 par-5s to take advantage of.
11 of the 18 holes also feature significant water hazards. Green complexes are small compared to course length and feature Champion Bermudagrass which aren’t to every player’s taste. You can also say the same about the Zoysiagrass fairways which many say promote flyers.
TPC Southwind, Germantown, Memphis, Tennessee: Designer Ron Pritchard 1987 with PGA Tour re-design 2004; Course Type: Course Type: Mid-Score, Medium Length; Par: 70; Length: 7,243 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 11; Fairways: Zeon Zoysiagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 4,300 sq.ft average featuring Champion Bermudagrass.
Course Scoring Average: 2012: 71.24 (+1.24), Difficulty Rank 10 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.76 (+0.76), Difficulty Rank 14 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.72 (+0.72), Rank 12 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.93 (+0.93), Difficulty Rank 9 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.93 (+0.93), Rank 10 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.63 (+0.63), Rank 15 of 50 courses. 2018: 70.52 (+0.52), Rank of 11 of 51 courses. WGC St Jude Invitational: 2019: 69.50 (-0.50), Difficulty Rank 24 of 49 courses; 2020: 69.56 (-0.44), Rank 14 of 41 courses; 2021: 69.05 (-0.95), Rank 32 of 51 courses. 2022: 69.16 (-0.84), Rank 30 of 50 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Southwind and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: TPC Southwind tends to play as a mid-score golf course with winning totals in the low- to mid-teens under par. Hitting the tight, Zoysiagrass fairways on the right side is the real challenge of this set-up. And with the average winner’s rank for driving accuracy over the past 6 years being 23rd (across the FedEx St Jude Classic & WGC St Jude Invitational) – flagrant missing of fairways here is not tolerated if you are looking for the ultimate winner. With fairway widths averaging 25-28 yards wide at 300 yards carry, driving targets are fairly tight – especially as the 419 Bermudagrass rough is here is gnarly 2.5” in length.
On the PGA Tour, Zoysiagrass fairways also feature at East Lake (Tour Championship), plus AT&T Byron Nelson venues TPC Craig Ranch (current) plus with previous host venue Trinity Forest, which was planted from tee to green with Zoysiagrass. These fairways also featured at the 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and at Bellerive Country Club which hosted the 2018 PGA Championship. Zoysia isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers.
The key to unlocking Southwind is a mixture of patience, aggression on the right holes and mastering of the Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces which aren’t for the faint hearted. At 4,300 sq.ft. on average they are also some of the smallest on Tour. So any Greens in Regulation percentage better than 70% tends to be at the top of the charts. It’s all about being aggressive at the right times as purely grinding pars is not enough. Course length at 7,243 yards makes TPC Southwind as a 2 par-5, Par 70 set-up a pretty stern test.
The small green complexes feature Champion Bermudagrass. On the current PGA schedule the only courses where Champion Bermudagrass greens feature are Sedgefield Country Club, Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship) and the Country Club of Jackson. Previous PGA Tour courses with Champion Bermudagrass greens include Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship & 2022 CJ Cup), Trinity Forest (formerly host course of the Byron Nelson Championship) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (formerly host course of the Barbasol Championship). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Cub and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.
FedEx Cup PlayOffs Event 1 Winners: 2022: Will Zalatoris (-15); 2021: Tony Finau (-20); 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30); 2019: Patrick Reed (-16); 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-18); 2017: Dustin Johnson (-13); 2016: Patrick Reed (-9); 2015: Jason Day (-19); 2014: Hunter Mahan (-14); 2013: Adam Scott (-11); 2012: Nick Watney (-10); 2011: Dustin Johnson (-19); 2010: Matt Kuchar (-12).
OWGR of FedEx Cup Event 1 Winners: 2022: Zalatoris 14; 2021: Finau 22; 2020: D Johnson 5; 2019: Reed 24; 2018: DeChambeau 21; 2017: D Johnson 1.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
FedEx Cup PlayOff Event 1 Winning Prices: 2022: Will Zalatoris 28/1; 2021: Tony Finau 60/1; 2020: Dustin Johnson 20/1; 2019: Patrick Reed 55/1; 2018: Bryson DeChambeau 100/1; 2017: Dustin Johnson 14/1; 2016: Reed 50/1; 2015: Day 10/1; 2014: Mahan 50/1; 2013: Scott 16/1; 2012: Watney 70/1; 2011: D Johnson 35/1; 2010: Kuchar 40/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 43/1; Overall Average: 42/1.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Light rain in the morning with chance of afternoon showers. High of 88. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Lift, Clean & Place In-Play. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 91. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Lift, Clean & Place In-Play. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 89. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 94. Wind WSW 7-12 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 89. Wind NW 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 4-8 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 91. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
2020: Thurs: Partly sunny with intermittent showers. High of 91. Wind SW 12-16 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SW 12-17 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. Due to expected inclement weather, tee times were moved to 7-9 a.m. CT. Saturday: Cloudy with early morning showers. High of 79. Wind W/NW 10-15 mph. Due to expected inclement weather, tee times were moved to threesomes off of both tees from 10 a.m. – noon CT. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 84. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SSW 4-8 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 89. Wind SSW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 90. Wind S 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 93. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SW 8-15 mph.
2017: Weather: Thursday: Clear skies in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon with a high of 80. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind SSW 3-7 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 88. Wind SSW 8-12 mph with gusts of 15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind S 8-12 with gusts of 15 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Germantown, Tennessee, is here.
The FedEx St Jude Classic is always one of the hottest tournaments of the year and 2023 will be no exception. With temperatures between 34 and 36 degrees Celsius – 93-97 Fahrenheit – across the tournament, expect watered greens. There’s a 60% chance of rain on Wednesday and an 80% chance of rain on Thursday, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a course with some cut in the fairways on Thursday. Thursday could also be significantly windy from the west and that turns Southwind into a tough course. Those winds look to ease on Friday and disappear completely over the weekend, so all-in-all I’m thinking low-ish teens being the winning total.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the U.S. Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Viktor Hovland; 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Rory McIlroy; 5) Collin Morikawa; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Corey Conners; 8) Patrick Cantlay; 9) Stephan Jaeger; 10) J.J. Spaun; 11) Lucas Glover / Max Homa; 13) Jon Rahm; 14) Byeong Hun An; 15) Kurt Kitayama; 16) Emiliano Grillo; 17) Tommy Fleetwood / Vincent Norrman / Cameron Young; 20) Davis Riley; 21) Beau Hossler; 22) Aaron Rai; 23) Russell Henley; 24) Si Woo Kim; 25) Jordan Spieth.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Rory McIlroy / Scottie Scheffler; 3) Eric Cole; 4) Hideki Matsuyama; 5) Tyrrell Hatton / Xander Schauffele; 7) Tom Kim / Alex Smalley; 9) Andrew Putnam; 10) Lucas Glover; 11) Rickie Fowler / Russell Henley; 13) Brian Harman / J.J. Spaun; 15) Stephan Jaeger / Jon Rahm; 17) Tommy Fleetwood; 18) Viktor Hovland; 19) Tom Hoge; 20) Mark Hubbard; 21) Si Woo Kim; 22) Cam Davis; 23) Max Homa; 24) Corey Conners / Tony Finau / Ben Griffin / Brendon Todd.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Jason Day; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) J.T. Poston; 4) Wyndham Clark; 5) Denny McCarthy; 6) Stephan Jaeger / Jordan Spieth; 8) Rory McIlroy; 9) Byeong Hun An; 10) Tommy Fleetwood; 11) Patrick Cantlay / Rickie Fowler; 13) Tyrrell Hatton; 14) Tony Finau; 15) Jon Rahm; 16) Keegan Bradley / Collin Morikawa; 18) Sam Burns / Russell Henley / Mackenzie Hughes; 21) Brian Harman / Nick Hardy / Tom Hoge; 24) Harris English; 25) Thomas Detry.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler / Rory McIlroy; 3) Viktor Hovland; 4) Wyndham Clark / Stephan Jaeger; 6) Russell Henley; 7) Tyrrell Hatton; 8) Corey Conners / Brian Harman / Jon Rahm; 11) Tommy Fleetwood / Lucas Glover / Keith Mitchell / Collin Morikawa / J.J. Spaun; 16) Patrick Cantlay / Rickie Fowler; 18) Tom Kim / Alex Smalley; 20) Max Homa; 21) Cam Davis / Aaron Rai / Cameron Young; 24) Hideki Matsuyama; 25) Emiliano Grillo / Xander Schauffele.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brian Harman; 2) Rickie Fowler; 3) Denny McCarthy; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Matt Fitzpatrick; 6) Nick Hardy; 7) Xander Schauffele; 8) J.T. Poston; 9) Eric Cole; 10) Brendon Todd; 11) Tyrrell Hatton; 12) Keegan Bradley; 13) Rory McIlroy; 14) Beau Hossler; 15) Tom Kim / Jon Rahm; 17) Emiliano Grillo; 18) Jason Day / Seamus Power; 20) Lee Hodges; 21) Mark Hubbard; 22) Tommy Fleetwood / Lucas Glover; 24) Byeong Hun An; 25) Andrew Putnam.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Brian Harman; 4) Rickie Fowler; 5) Tyrrell Hatton; 6) Wyndham Clark / Viktor Hovland / Xander Schauffele; 9) Tommy Fleetwood; 10) Patrick Cantlay / Tom Kim / J.T. Poston; 13) Jon Rahm; 14) Russell Henley / Max Homa; 16) Lucas Glover; 17) Sam Burns / Eric Cole / Collin Morikawa; 20) Brendon Todd; 21) Corey Conners / Stephan Jaeger; 23) Byeong Hun An / Nick Hardy / Aaron Rai.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Southwind since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the winners here at TPC Southwind since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Par 70:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Will Zalatoris (-15). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 25th.
2021, Abraham Ancer (-16). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 10th.
2020, Justin Thomas (-13). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 55th.
2019, Brooks Koepka (-16). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 54th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 1st.
2018, Dustin Johnson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 14th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 12th.
2017, Daniel Berger (-10). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 10th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 44th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 25th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here at TPC Southwind since 2017 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Will Zalatoris (-15). 321 yards (3rd), 58.9% fairways (34th), 70.8% greens in regulation (8th), 30’4″ proximity to hole (24th), 76.2 % scrambling (7th), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).
2021, Abraham Ancer (-16). 296 yards (57th), 67.9% fairways (10th), 70.8% greens in regulation (5th), 31’9″ proximity to hole (27th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (15th).
2020, Justin Thomas (-13). 296 yards (44th), 69.6% fairways (10th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 25’8″ proximity to hole (1st), 76.2% scrambling (6th), 1.75 putts per GIR (45th).
2019, Brooks Koepka (-16). 309 yards (4th), 66.1% fairways (9th), 69.4% greens in regulation (8th), 30’10” proximity to hole (14th), 90.9% scrambling (1st), 1.62 putts per GIR (7th).
2018, Dustin Johnson (-19). 320 yards (3rd), 53.6% fairways (36th), 68.1% greens in regulation (10th), 26’6″ proximity to hole (3rd), 78.3% scrambling (4th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
2017, Daniel Berger (-10). 305 yards (14th), 55.4% fairways (36th), 68.1% greens in regulation (10th), proximity to hole 29’0″ (8th), 65.2 % scrambling (38th), 1.69 putts per GIR (21st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 21st, Driving Accuracy: 23rd, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Proximity to Hole: 13th, Scrambling: 10th, Putting Average 16th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Southwind sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Will Zalatoris (2022): “Yeah, I think yesterday might have been some of the worst luck I think I’ve had my entire professional career. I got a stretch of three plugged balls in bunkers in four holes. I knew I was due for some good breaks. I putted really nicely today, made a lot of up-and-downs. I think I had 23 or 24 putts today, so putted nicely. I made a lot of putts from 10 to 15 feet. Typically I’m going to have more opportunities than any guys out here due to my ball-striking, but taking advantage of those are typically when I have rounds like today.”
“You know, I love playing this place. I played well here last year and got some good vibes running around this place. Yeah, I think the big thing about this place is honestly, it’s having Zoysia fairways where you’re always going to have a good lie. The example I can give you from last week (Wyndham Championship), Bermuda, it’s soft, the ball can kind of sit down in the fairway and it’s tough to get the right distance and judge it from there. So this week it’s like practically hitting it off a tee a few times. Like I said, you’ve got to avoid the bunkers this week because, like I said, I’ve seen nine plugs in three days, so just got to avoid them at all costs.”
Abraham Ancer (2021): “Yeah, very solid off the tee and iron play as well, rolled the ball really good. I wasn’t really thinking about that. That’s always my goal, to be bogey-free when I tee it up. Makes me kind of simplify every hole and just get me hitting greens is the biggest goal and then from there I just focus obviously on my putting. Happy that I got a round like that under my belt here. This is a very demanding golf course off the tee and also with iron play. I know it wasn’t playing as tough as it could be just because it was a little softer and not very windy, but still you have to hit your spots, for sure.”
“Yeah, I don’t mind being aggressive here. The greens are soft enough and it’s not blowing that much that you can attack, which normally I feel like it’s a little bit of more wind and maybe a little bit firmer in a way that you have to maybe stay away from those aggressive lines. Yeah, I like it. I love the golf course, I feel good off the tee and coming into the greens on the second shots, so I’m looking forward to tomorrow and just got to take it deep.”
Justin Thomas (2020): “I find this place very similar to East Lake to where if you drive it well, if you hit the fairways, it’s not a very difficult golf course. You have a pretty good amount of short irons and some wedges to where you can control your distance into the greens. Because it’s so important to be putting from below the hole or on the correct side versus when you get in the rough, you’re going to get a lot of flyers or it’s going to be sitting so bad where you can’t get it to the green and you’re trying to get up and down. It’s a place I think off the tee is extremely important because from there you can manage the course pretty well. when you get out of position, you’re really just trying to minimize your damage and not make a big number.”
“Yeah, it’s nice. This place reminds me a lot of East Lake where if you hit the fairways, it’s not a very hard golf course, it’s all right in front of you, you can make a lot of birdies, but if you don’t, you’re grinding. Rough isn’t as high here as it usually is and it’s not as firm, but you can still see some of the scores that are being shot, it’s still a tough golf course and you have to have control of your ball and hopefully that will be a good test going into next week for the PGA.”
“I just felt like I couldn’t get the ball to the hole. These greens are so good and they’re so true that I think they look faster than they are. They’re still fast, but they look lightning. As fast as they are down grain, they’re not very fast into the grain and uphill. So many putts where I was kind of falling in love with the line and they were just kind of coming off low and not as hard as I wanted to hit them.”
Brooks Koepka (2019): “There’s a bunch of tough holes here. If you’re going to put it in the rough out here, you’re going to have some problems. Nine’s a difficult hole if you’re not going to put it in the fairway, the way that green’s set. There’s quite a few holes where if you don’t put it in the fairway, you’ve got to carry some water in the front of the green. And the Bermuda rough, it sits down, it could jump 40 yards or it could come out dead and you’re right in the middle of the lake, dropping. It makes it very challenging.”
“I like the back nine. I think the back nine, it will test you. If your ball-striking’s on, I think you can shoot a low one, I think you can shoot four, five under no problem. If not, if you’re not hitting the fairways, I think you very easily could shoot two over, but that’s the sign of a great golf course. Twelve, tough driving hole, and at the same time it’s just awkward enough. You get the ball below your feet, a little downhill lie to a green. I feel like that green’s always been difficult for me to hit. I don’t know if it is for other guys, but for me that’s always been a difficult one.”
“Yeah, you’ve just got to hit fairways on this golf course. You put it in the rough and you’re going to have a difficult time. It’s all about positioning yourself off the tee. These greens are so good, anything inside 10 feet you’re expecting to make. You have so many wedges, too, so if you can just drive it in the fairway, you’re going to have a lot of good looks.”
“Yeah, I loved this golf course the first time I played it. I think it’s been really solid and it’s been a fun track for me to play. These greens are so pure. I love a golf course with good greens, it’s going to challenge you. It really forces you to play position golf off the tee and I like that.”
Dustin Johnson (2018): “Yeah, I really like this golf course, it’s in really good shape. I think it sets up well for me. It’s all about hitting the fairways. You’ve just got to hit it in the fairways and hit it on the correct side of the fairways. I don’t get to hit a lot of drivers, but that’s okay, the golf course is tough and you’ve got to control your distance coming into the greens and you’ve got to hit quality golf shots if you want to hit a good score out here.
“Yeah, when I’m playing well the ball moves left to right all the time, and right now it is and I felt like I’m swinging good so I’ve got a lot of confidence in my swing. ”
Daniel Berger (2017): “This golf course is playing tougher than last year. You just have to hit it in the fairway, otherwise it’s difficult to get it close and as the week goes on, its going to get firmer and faster so it will be even tougher. As a group we made some birdies early, but the momentum fizzled out. That was mainly because we didn’t hit enough fairways on the back-9.” Daniel Berger (2016): “My speed control has been great. The greens feel like I’m just at home and, you know, I love the Bermuda and I don’t even read grain here. I just look at it and see it and it’s just from years and years of putting on it. It’s nice to kind of get two grind-out pars on last two holes. It’s the hardest course I’ve ever played in my life. It’s just extremely long and extremely penalizing. The greens are very slopey. You have 10-footers that break four, five feet. Speed control is going to be huge, and fairways.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions of TPC Southwind winners since 2017:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
8 – Rory McIlroy.
5 – Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth.
4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Jon Rahm.
3 – Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Justin Rose.
1 – Keegan Bradley, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin, Nick Hardy, Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, Collin Morikawa, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor, Brendon Todd.
The Ryder Cup will have an impact across both the FedEx St Jude Championship and the BMW Championship next week. Automatic qualification is available into the United States team, with 6 automatic spots for Team USA. Automatic selection spots for will complete after the BMW Championship, with Zach Johnson announcing his Captain’s Picks on Monday 28th August, post Tour Championship.
As far as Luke Donald’s Team Europe is concerned, qualification doesn’t close until 3rd September, but clearly both this week and the BMW Championship next week offer up a huge amount of qualification points, the like of which can’t be garnered from the Czech Masters or the Omega European Masters. That’s a huge carrot for the likes of a Thomas Detry or Sepp Straka, who are sure to be in Luke Donald’s thoughts.
It’s noticeable that Will Zalatoris (finished 7th in qualification after winning the St Jude Invitational and would have been selected as a Captain’s Pick before injury), Tony Finau (made Ryder Cup as a Captain’s Pick), Patrick Reed (made Presidents Cup as a Captain’s Pick), Abraham Ancer (made Presidents Cup as an automatic selection, after finishing runner-up at Northern Trust), Bryson DeChambeau (made Ryder Cup as a Captain’s Pick), Tony Finau (made Ryder Cup as a Captain’s Pick), Jhonattan Vegas (entered tournament at position 9 in President’s Cup rankings), Patrick Reed (made Ryder Cup Captain’s Pick), Hunter Mahan (made Ryder Cup Captain’s Pick), Graham Delaet (made President’s Cup), Nick Watney (failed) and Brandt Snedeker (made Ryder Cup Captain’s Pick) across the past 11 opening FedEx Cup Playoff events (excepting 2020 for obvious reasons) all produced late charges to make their respective Ryder Cup / President’s Cup teams.
In terms of other factors to look out for, the initial FedEx Cup Playoff tournament since the FedEx Cup Playoffs have only encompassed 3 legs, has been won by players ranked 50th (2019), 15th (2020), 23rd (2021) and 12 (2022) going into the tournament. Will Zalatoris broke the mould 12 months ago by winning this event as a Tour maiden. Prior to that, all Barclays/Northern Trust winners in the Playoff era had been PGA Tour event winners.
My FedEx St Jude Championship Tips Are As Follows:
Scottie Scheffler 4pts Win 8/1 (Enhanced Win Only) with bet365
Scottie Scheffler has played some exceptionally strong golf in 2023. Strokes Gained Tee to Green ranks since the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in February read 2-1-2-5-2-1-1-1-3-2-2-3. To put that another way, Scottie hasn’t ranked outside the top 5 for Tee to Green going back over his last 12 stroke play events. That’s pretty crazy.
Even crazier is that across that same timespan the World Number 1 has only won a single event at The Players Championship in March. Granted he’s racked-up a 2nd at the PGA Championship and a quartet of 3rd place finishes across Colonial, Memorial, Los Angeles Country Club and the Renaissance Club, but ultimately he must be frustrated not to have won more tournaments. So all-in-all I think that Scottie will be looking forward to a return to the Bermudagrass greens on which he thrives on this week in Memphis.
A 6-time PGA Tour winner across his last 38 starts, 5 of them have been on Bermudagrass putting surfaces. Clearly Scheffler’s woes with the putter are well known, but if there was any event where that may well be negated it’s this one at TPC Southwind. After all, Will Zalatoris won here 12 month’s ago, gaining just 2.5 strokes with the putter. Hideki Matsuyama made a play-off here in 2021 losing 0.98 strokes on the greens across the week, and Justin Thomas famously won a WGC here in 2020 losing 1.88 strokes with the flat stick. In summary, this place sounds pretty perfect for the World Number 1. RESULT: T31
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Collin Morikawa 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Collin Morikawa ticks plenty of boxes for me this week. On a TPC Southwind course with tiny green complexes, multiple water hazards and jumpy 419 Bermudagrass rough, this set-up has always demanded quality ball-striking, more specifically quality iron play. Morikawa therefore jumps off the page. Season-long PGA Tour numbers of 5th for Greens in Regulation and 10th for Ball Striking, plus Strokes Gained ranks of 19th for Off the Tee, 2nd for Approach (behind only Scottie Scheffler) and 4th for Tee to Green, scream Morikawa.
Forget his missed cut at Hoylake, Collin showed that his true game is returning when he finished 2nd to Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage Classic early last month. Morikawa was ultimately beaten in a play-off, but Strokes Gained-wise ranked 8th for Off the Tee, 7th for Approach and 2nd for Tee to Green, making 2 Eagles and 21 Birdies on the week in Detroit.
Now the Rocket Mortgage Classic is a tournament where Strokes Gained Putting is mightily important. The same can’t be said for Southwind, where the last 5 winners have averaged 25th for Strokes Gained Putting when victorious – for the record they averaged 6th for Approach and 2nd for Tee to Green. That’s so Collin Morikawa!
2nd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions when he ultimately had the tournament in his grasp, 2023 has been patchy for Collin to say the least. 3rd at the Farmers Insurance Open, 6th at the Genesis Invitational and 10th at the Masters were Morikawa’s best finishes before that 2nd in Detroit. 20th (2020), 26th (2021) and 5th (2022) here at TPC Southwind over the past 3 years, Collin has also putted positively on 2 of the 3 outings here on the Champion Bermudagrass greens. I’m expecting big things from Morikawa this week. RESULT: T13
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5th here last year, Tony Finau has plenty to play for this week at TPC Southwind.
19th in the Ryder Cup qualification standings for Team USA, I keep reading on Twitter that he’s a lock for selection. Intriguingly Tony doesn’t seem to think so and from a motivational perspective for this week in Memphis that is vitally important. “I’ve been in this type of position before, you know, where probably on the outside looking in. Going to have to play some good golf over these next few weeks and make my case. The good news is I’ve been in this position before, I’ve made the teams before and hope to show some good form to make my case for myself over the next few weeks.” These were his words ahead of the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago, so I’m sure that Tony will be up for the fight this week.
He’s also well-suited for the task ahead this week at a real ball-strikers paradise. 6th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green this season, Finau also ranks 7th for Strokes Gained Approach, 9th for Ball Striking and within the top 17 for Greens in Regulation. The driver was straight enough at TPC Twin Cities last time out when he finished 7th, and let’s not forget he also ranked 9th for Tee to Green and gained almost 3 Strokes with the flat stick, which was his best putting performance going back to his Mexico Open victory in April. He also gained almost 4 Strokes Putting here 12 months ago so clearly gets on well with these Champion Bermudagrass greens. RESULT: 64th
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I’ll finish with Lucas Glover. The winner last week at the Wyndham Championship, Lucas finds himself now with a huge opportunity arriving in Memphis. It’s worth remembering that arriving at the RBC Canadian Open back in June, Lucas ranked a lowly 185th in the FedEx Cup rankings and 158th in the Official World Golf Rankings.
So after a hugely well-deserved victory in North Carolina last week – his 5th PGA Tour victory – Lucas now finds himself with a huge opportunity over and above the 2 year exemption he earned at the Wyndham. Now at 53rd in the OWGR, a big week here would see him rise into the top 50 for the first time since 2011. That clearly is a huge step towards gaining Major Championship starts in 2024. Plus at 49th in the FedEx Cup points standings, if he can stay in the top 50 he will garner access to all designated events in 2024. Huge carrots which may well keep the fire burning for one more week.
4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 6th at the John Deere Classic, 5th at the Barbasol Championship on top of his victory last week, Glover was 3rd here at TPC Southwind 12 months ago. RESULT: Winner
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