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It was great to finally get a win on the board at the Memorial Tournament last week with Bryson DeChambeau claiming the title for us at 50/1. After a couple of consecutive each-way returns with Grace and Rahm, it was a much needed win and if you throw in Paul Williams’ 33/1 scoop on Adrian Otaegui in Belgium, it’s a couple of wins over the past 3 weeks for Golf Betting System.

The week before the U.S. Open is always an interesting scenario on the PGA Tour. The FedEx St Jude Classic is the traditional warm-up for the U.S. Open and tends to be either all or nothing for the few elite players who bother to attend. World top-20 players in the form of Dustin Johnson (20/1) and Lee Westwood (12/1) have won this tournament in recent years, but so have Tour maidens Daniel Berger (33/1), Fabian Gomez (400/1), Harris English (66/1) and Harrison Frazar (275/1). 2017 saw Berger return to defend his title, which he did in style capturing a second consecutive title in Memphis at 28/1. He could make some history this week as he goes for the 3-peat. This week the field includes Dustin Johnson (OWGR No.2), Brooks Koepka (No.9), Henrik Stenson (No.15) and Phil Mickelson (No.20) – all in all though, it’s traditionally one of the weaker tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule, as many players take the opportunity to scout Shinnecock Hills the week before the U.S. Open. Clearly that presents a big opportunity for whose game fits TPC Southwind.

Course Guide: TPC Southwind is a tough, technical track which has been the hardest non-Major par 70 on the PGA Tour in 2 of the past 6 years. But it’s not only the course that’s difficult as sweltering temperatures in Memphis, allied to high humidity, traditionally turns this tournament into a real grind. Bermuda rough at 2.5″ doesn’t help the scoring and Southwind also features 8 par-4s of over 450 yards, plus of course only 2 par-5s to take advantage of. Green complexes aren’t huge and feature grainy Champion Bermudagrass which isn’t to every player’s taste. You can also say the same about the Zoysiagrass fairways which many say promote flyers.

TPC Southwind, Germantown, Memphis, Tennessee: Designer Ron Pritchard 1987 with PGA Tour re-design 2004; Course Type: Technical; Par: 70; Length: 7,244 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 8; Fairways: Zoysiagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 5,420 sq.ft average featuring Champion Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.24 (+1.24), Difficulty Rank 10 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.76 (+0.76), Difficulty Rank 14 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.72 (+0.72), Rank 12 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.93 (+0.93), Difficulty Rank 9 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.93 (+0.93), Rank 10 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.63 (+0.63), Rank 15 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Southwind and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:35; 300:31; 325:26; 350:30.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.
• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.

Course Overview: TPC Southwind is a real brute which in the past 5 seasons has ranked as the 10th, 14th, 12th, 9th, 10th and last year the 15th hardest course on the Tour. Hitting the tight, Zoysiagrass (a grass shared traditionally only with East Lake, home of the Tour Championship, but now also new Tour venue Trinity Forest has it) fairways is a huge challenge, but in essence a lack of driving accuracy is not a huge penalty here as the average winner’s rank for accuracy across the past 8 years is 33rd. Instead the key to unlocking Southwind is a mixture of patience, aggression on the right holes and mastering of the Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces which aren’t for the faint hearted. Birdies come at a real premium; on the flip side both of the par-5s, namely the 3rd and the 16th, are eagle opportunities. It’s all about being aggressive at the right times as purely grinding pars is not enough. The par-3 11th was lengthened by 5 yards for 2016 to 162 yards, taking the overall course length to 7,244 yards. That makes TPC Southwind the longest full-field Par 70 of the regular PGA Tour season.

Inaccuracy off the tee is a problem that virtually all players have at TPC Southwind. The course ranked 11th toughest for fairways hit in 2017, and although that is not necessarily a problem for PGA Tour professionals, the course traditionally ranks in the top 20 toughest (13th last year) for rough proximity. So look for players who are excellent out of the rough and who can still get the ball relatively close when off the short stuff. TPC Southwind is also renowned for a tough set of par-4s – the standard Par 70 set-up includes 12 of them. The course ranked 11th toughest for par-4 Scoring Average in 2016, and 13th toughest in 2017, so again look for those comfortable scoring on par-4s.

Greens feature Champion Bermudagrass. These greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), Trinity Forest (2018 AT&T Byron Nelson), the Country Club of Jackson (Sandersons Farms Championship) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (Barbasol Championship). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Cub and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

Winners: 2017: Daniel Berger (-10); 2016: Daniel Berger (-13); 2015: Fabian Gomez (-13); 2014: Ben Crane (-10); 2013: Harris English (-12); 2012: Dustin Johnson (-9); 2011: Harrison Frazar (-13); 2010: Lee Westwood (-10).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Ben Crane, Harris English, Brian Gay, Brooks Koepka, Henrik Stenson, Charles Howell III, Matt Jones and Chris Kirk.

Recent Player Skill Rankings:

These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Houston Open and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Chez Reavie; 2) Conrad Shindler / Henrik Stenson; 4) John Peterson; 5) Brian Gay; 6) Steve Wheatcroft; 7) Jonathan Randolph; 8) Brian Stuard; 9) Ben Crane; 10) Roberto Diaz; 11) Zac Blair / C.T. Pan; 13) David Lingmerth; 14) David Hearn; 15) Chris Kirk; 16) Troy Merritt / J.T. Poston; 18) Sam Ryder / Steve Stricker; 20) Daniel Berger / Billy Horschel.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Henrik Stenson; 2) Joaquin Niemann; 3) Daniel Berger / Dustin Johnson; 5) Brooks Koepka; 6) Andrew Putnam / Brett Stegmaier / Steve Stricker; 9) Troy Merritt; 10) Fabian Gomez; 11) Chris Kirk; 12) Matt Jones / Shane Lowry; 14) Stewart Cink / Luke List; 16) Hunter Mahan / C.T. Pan / Scott Piercy / Steve Wheatcroft; 20) Blayne Barber / Chad Campbell / Peter Uihlein.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Phil Mickelson; 2) Daniel Summerhays; 3) Stephan Jaeger; 4) Zac Blair; 5) Kiradech Aphibarnrat; 6) Marty Dou; 7) J.T. Poston; 8) Brett Stegmaier; 9) Denny McCarthy; 10) Steve Stricker; 11) Billy Horschel / Brooks Koepka; 13) Padraig Harrington; 14) D.A. Points / Charl Schwartzel; 16) Roberto Diaz / Brandt Snedeker / Andrew Yun; 19) Peter Malnati; 20) Harris English; 21) Matt Every.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Berger 28/1; 2016: Berger 33/1; 2015: Gomez 400/1; 2014: Crane 175/1; 2013: English 66/1; 2012: Johnson 20/1; 2011: Frazar 275/1; 2010: Westwood 12/1. Average: 126/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 159/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Clear skies in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon with a high of 80. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind SSW 3-7 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 88. Wind SSW 8-12 mph with gusts of 15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind S 8-12 with gusts of 15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny skies, with a high of 88 degrees. Wind E/SE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny skies, with a high of 92 degrees. Wind S/SE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 93 degrees. Wind S/SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 92 degrees. Wind W/SW 5-10 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 91. Wind SSW at 10-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 90. SSW wind at 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 89. S wind at 8-14 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Germantown, Tennessee, is here. The FedEx St Jude Classic is always one of the hottest tournaments of the year and 2018 will be no exception. The course received 22mm of rain last week and April was particularly wet, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see tough rough, with ever-firming course conditions. With temperatures between 32 and 35 degrees Celsius across the tournament, expect watered greens – but a firm and fast test from tee-to green. Conditions wind-wise will provide little test, with Thursday and Friday ideal for scoring and the weekend seeing a breeze of up to 15 mph maximum. Threat of rain looks extremely limited.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of this event since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Daniel Berger (-10). 305 yards (14th), 55.4% fairways (36th), 68.1% greens in regulation (10th), 29’0″ proximity to hole (8th), 65.2 % scrambling (38th), 1.69 putts per GIR (21st).
• 2016, Daniel Berger (-13). 310 yards (6th), 60.7% fairways (11th), 75.0% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 29’1″ (3rd), 66.7 % scrambling (24th), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).
• 2015, Fabian Gomez (-15). 293 yards (39th), 53.6% fairways (43rd), 68.1% greens in regulation (8th), proximity to hole 28’10” (5th), 73.9 % scrambling (8th), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2014, Ben Crane (-10). 271 yards (62nd), 58.9% fairways (30th), 58.3% greens in regulation (47th), proximity to hole 32’5″ (31st), 83.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2013, Harris English (-12). 290 yards (69th), 53.6% fairways (40th), 66.7% greens in regulation (9th), proximity to hole 31’11” (28th), 70.8% scrambling (17th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2012, Dustin Johnson (-9). 301 yards (21st), 57.1% fairways (18th), 69.4% greens in regulation (4th), proximity to hole 27’4″ (1st), 68.2% scrambling (7th), 1.74 putts per GIR (28th).
• 2011, Harrison Frazar (-13). 317 yards (1st), 57.1% fairways (46th), 69.4% greens in regulation (8th), proximity to hole 27’5″ (1st), 77.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2010, Lee Westwood (-11). 302 yards (15th), 60.7% fairways (42nd), 65.3% greens in regulation (9th), proximity to hole 34’6″ (53rd), 72.0% scrambling (12th), 1.70 putts per GIR (16th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 28th, Driving Accuracy: 33rd, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Proximity to Hole: 11th, Scrambling: 14th, Putting Average 14th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Southwind sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Daniel Berger (2017): “This golf course is playing tougher than last year. You just have to hit it in the fairway, otherwise it’s difficult to get it close and as the week goes on, its going to get firmer and faster so it will be even tougher. As a group we made some birdies early, but the momentum fizzled out. That was mainly because we didn’t hit enough fairways on the back-9.” Daniel Berger (2016): “My speed control has been great. The greens feel like I’m just at home and, you know, I love the Bermuda and I don’t even read grain here. I just look at it and see it and it’s just from years and years of putting on it. It’s nice to kind of get two grind-out pars on last two holes. It’s the hardest course I’ve ever played in my life. It’s just extremely long and extremely penalizing. The greens are very slopey. You have 10-footers that break four, five feet. Speed control is going to be huge, and fairways.“

Fabian Gomez (2015): “I’m the kind of guy that usually, you know, my driver is straight. And in this course, you know, many, many holes you have to be really, you know, competitive with your driver. And also so many holes you need to play like a fade, you know, and I cannot play that for me, really tough to hit a fade and that’s the situation. Also, it’s a course that usually you have to play with the wind. And I’m the kind of player that I feel comfortable playing with the wind, you know.“

Greg Owen (2015): “Yeah, the fairways aren’t as firm as they normally are. They firmed up since the practice days because of the rain, but they’re not bouncing like they can do in previous years. The greens are perfect. I mean, they really are good. They’re rolling properly. They’re accepting good shots. It’s all about hitting fairways and greens. I hit most of them today, so it’s always well for a good score. It suits my eye pretty good.“

Ben Crane (2015): “I got in the rough a number of times. I’ll tell you what, this is no golf course to play from the rough. It makes it so difficult. You get a lot of fliers, hard to control the ball. Scrambling around these greens is just incredibly difficult with the rough around the greens. Grainy lies. It makes some of the guys look silly. I’m telling you, this is a tough golf course right now. It’s drying out and, you know, I mean, I think single digits might even win this tournament. Kind of depends what a few guys do. It is a very tough test of golf right now.“

Lee Westwood (2014): “It’s quite tight. You need to drive the ball straight although, you know, it does give you opportunities, you know, where it’s not driver on every hole as well. But there is a massive premium on hitting the fairways here. You know, holes like 18, 12, you know, if you’re not in the fairway there and 15, you can make par difficult. So, you know, the fact I think it tests up every aspect of your game. You got to drive the ball well and hit the fairway. Lots of greens sort of run across you so not only got to hit the right distance and the right line and right distance as well. The greens are immaculate, really. There’s no excuses for not making putts.“

Retief Goosen (2014): “I like this golf course. It’s a golf course you need to hit a lot of different kind of shots off the tee. It’s not a golf course that you can just blast away at it, not that I can anymore anyway. So actually a lot of holes now doglegs I don’t have to worry about running out so that’s good. The course is in really good shape. A little bit more rough throughout than there has been in the past. You pretty much have no chance of stopping it on these greens with the rough. Today, I kept it fairly good on the fairway and the back-9 was a couple of bad drives but depends what happens now, the weather this afternoon. If it rains the greens will get softer and make the course play quite a bit different than it did this morning. This course played tough this morning. The fairways running out pretty good and, like I say, some of the greens are really tough to get close. Yeah, it could rain, could have a delay and come back tomorrow morning, no wind and the guys shoot 7, 8-under. Who knows? As it’s playing now, it’s tough out there. Hopefully we won’t get too much rain. I prefer the course to play hard and fast.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 winners:

• 2017 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 48th, Round 2: 34th, Round 3: 9th.
• 2016 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 10th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Fabian Gomez: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Ben Crane: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Harris English: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2012 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 28th, Round 2: 18th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2011 – Harrison Frazar: Round 1: 54th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2010 – Lee Westwood: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 3rd.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Daniel Berger: 65th TPC Sawgrass/36th Eagle Point/MC New Orleans/27th Augusta.
• Daniel Berger: 67th Memorial/9th TPC Sawgrass/17th Quail/20th TPC Louisiana.
• Fabian Gomez: MC TPC4S/17th Colonial/MC Quail/59th TPC Louisiana.
• Ben Crane: 37th TPC4S/MC TPC Sawgrass/MC Quail/MC TPC Louisiana.
• Harris English: MC Colonial/17th TPC4S/33rd TPC Sawgrass/6th TPC Louisiana.
• Dustin Johnson: 19th Memorial – coming back from 3 months off.
• Harrison Frazar: 14th TPC4S/MC TPC Louisiana/MC TPC San Antonio/MC Houston.
• Lee Westwood: 10th Wentworth/4th TPC Sawgrass/38th Quail/2nd Augusta.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Brown/Cink/Every/Munoz – 1AM/3PM -6/64 – 125/1 70/1 300/1 & 225/1
• 2016 – Hoge/Noh/Stefani – 2AM/1PM -5/65.
• 2015 – Koepka/Owen/Palmer – 1AM/2PM -6/64.
• 2014 – Crane – PM -7/63.
• 2013 – Appleby/Glen Day/English/Flores/Green/Love III – 1AM/5PM -4/66.
• 2012 – Maggert / Merrick – AM/PM Split -4/66.
• 2011 – Mathis – PM -5/65.
• 2010 – Westwood – AM -7/63.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 5 – Dustin Johnson.
• 3 – Brian Gay, Billy Horschel, Henrik Stenson.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Ben Crane, Matt Every, Chris Kirk, Phil Mickelson, Ryan Palmer, Scott Piercy, Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Wesley Bryan, Keegan Bradley, Jonathan Byrd, Austin Cook, Harris English, Tommy Gainey, Robert Garrigus, Cody Gribble, Fabian Gomez, Retief Goosen, James Hahn, Padraig Harrington, J.B. Holmes, Mackenzie Hughes, Patton Kizzire, Will Mackenzie, Peter Malnati, Grayson Murray, Charl Schwartzel, Robert Streb, Steve Stricker, Brian Stuard; Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Johnson Wagner.

A razor-sharp short game looks to be the prerequisite at TPC Southwind where simply hitting fairways and greens won’t get the job done. Mastering the gnarly putting surfaces really is the key here, as is top-notch scrambling. Only 24 players across 2012-2017 have broken 70% Greens in Regulation at Southwind, so it’s clear that making par from off the green is critical. Top-level Champion Bermudagrass putting is critical for anybody who wants to top what is sure to be an extremely tight leaderboard. It’s worth noting that Sedgefield has featured Champion Bermudagrass greens since 2012 as did Annandale before it disappeared from the Tour schedule in 2013 if you’re looking for course comparisons. Quail Hollow has featured these sort of greens since the PGA Championship last year as did the AT&T Byron Nelson’s new home at Trinity Forest. The alternate Barbasol Championship event, played in Alabama at Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail, also features Champion.

The form metrics this week at St Jude are a little confusing. Daniel Berger goes for a 3-peat this week after capturing this St Jude title in both 2016 and 2017. He captured his first PGA Tour title here at a very nice 33/1 and his win last year came at 28/1. Form-in differed though. 2016 had seen him arrive in Tennessee after a 10th at Augusta and 9th at TPC Sawgrass, which marked him out as one to follow. 12 months ago he’d had a period of inactivity after 65th at TPC Sawgrass, 36th at Eagle Point and 27th at Augusta. In general though Berger is the sort who has also shown a liking for Bermudagrass greens across both the PGA and web.com Tours.

This title has been won by 4 maiden PGA Tour victors in the past 8 renewals at Memphis since 2010 – so don’t be scared of non-winners if they fit your criteria this week. Fitting the maiden pattern, Fabian Gomez won at a whopping 400/1 in 2015. With a top 20 at Colonial 2 outings prior to arriving in Tennessee, Gomez captured his first PGA Tour title here whilst the big guns all started slowly or faded away. Gomez has a history of playing well in Puerto Rico and had won a web.com tournament at Le Triomphe Country Club in Louisiana in 2010.

In 2014, Ben Crane had missed out on US Open qualification in Memphis on the Monday prior to the tournament. He then proceeded to shoot blistering opening rounds of 63-65 to take total control of the tournament by Saturday morning (play was delayed by thunderstorms). His win came at a juicy 175/1. Prior to Crane, Harris English again came off the back of missing out on U.S. Open spot at the Monday Qualifier and grabbed his first ever PGA Tour victory at 66/1. Harrison Frazar in 2011 qualified for Congressional on the Monday and then arrived at TPC Southwind with little form and delivered a 275/1 victory for the bookmakers. However those kind of results go alongside 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016 and 2017 where Justin Leonard, Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger (twice) could focus solely on the tournament in Memphis rather than the U.S. Open for which they were already safely qualified.

Daniel Berger has dominated in Memphis over the past 2 renewals and naturally goes for the 3-peat this week, something we shall see again in July with Jhonattan Vegas at the RBC Canadian Open. Daniel will have a chance to become the first player since Steve Stricker in 2009-10-11 to win the same tournament (John Deere Classic) at least three times in a row. Daniel is hitting plenty of greens at the moment and clearly loves the set-up and greens at TPC Southwind. Naturally he has a real chance this week to make some history.

US Open Cut-Off: Here’s a list of players by current OWGR who aren’t yet qualified for the US Open (Top 60). This weekend marks the cut-off for this OWGR qualifying category; current OWGR in brackets: Byeong-Hun An (56th), James Hahn (81st).

My selections are as follows: