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Congratulations to Aaron Wise backers at Trinity Forest. Available at anything up to 50/1 (with Unibet) pre-tournament, I’m sure there were plenty of you who were on board the talented and extremely mature 21 year-old. The conveyor belt of young talent is exceptional in these modern golf times. We pretty much covered the week with Branden Grace each-way at 25/1 – the South African finished like an express train and but for a costly Saturday double bogey at the 15th, he would have been more of a threat. Trinity Forest was a breath of fresh air as a host course and when the wind gets up in future renewals it will certainly offer up a stern test.

Congratulations also goes out to our European Tour expert Paul Williams, who landed another winner in the form of Adrian Otaegui at 33/1 at the Belgian Knockout. No mean feat that at a new tournament, on a new course to the European Tour and with a never seen before tournament format!

Course Guide: Colonial CC sits in the same classical course category as Torrey Pines, Augusta, Riviera, Bay Hill, Quail Hollow and Muirfield. At 7,209 yards this Bredemus and Maxwell-designed par 70 cannot be overpowered. The tree-lined parkland course features pure Bentgrass greens that are extremely small at an average size of only 4,500 square feet. Birdies are hard to come by at Colonial with the 2 par-5s amongst the toughest on Tour to birdie or better. As we approach the close of May, after months of Bermudagrass greens it’s fantastic to see a tournament played on Bentgrass greens this week. Naturally now as we move towards summer, Bentgrass putting surfaces will be more regularly seen on the Tour.

Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas: Designer: Bredemus/Maxwell 1936; Course Type: Classical; Par: 70; Length: 7,209 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 5; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 3″; Greens: Bent, 4,500 sq.ft average; Tournament Stimp: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.13 (+1.13), Difficulty Rank 13 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.90 (-0.10), Difficulty Rank 24 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.27 (+0.27), Rank 19 of 48 courses. 2015: 69.78 (-0.22), Difficulty Rank 21 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.20 (+0.20), Difficulty Rank 18 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.15 (+1.15), Difficulty Rank 7 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Colonial Country Club and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.
• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.
• PGA National: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:27; 350:24.
• Riviera: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26; 325:26; 350:28.

Course Overview: Colonial provides its winners with a plaid jacket that’s extremely similar to those handed to the champions at Harbour Town. The similarities don’t end there as the two courses share traditional values in the modern world of the PGA Tour. Colonial is short by today’s standards, but the course only features 24 acres of fairway making tee shot target areas extremely small. Errant drives are captured by tough Bermudagrass rough with most fairways on the property being tree-lined ensuring plenty of blocked approach shots for those that deviate.

As with most classical courses, there’s no particular right or wrong game-shape which dominates the champion list. Short game specialists (Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk and Zach Johnson) and ball-strikers (Adam Scott and Boo Weekley) have an equal chance of victory on this classical Colonial layout. Kevin Kisner played some lovely, balanced, plotting golf – 1st Driving Accuracy, 2nd Greens in Regulation, 2nd Scrambling, 3rd Strokes Gained Putting – when he won this 12 months ago on a firm course with gusting 25 mph to 30 mph winds a feature. Jordan Spieth (2016) and Chris Kirk (2015) were wayward off the tee and scrambled and putted their way to victory; prior to that Adam Scott (2014) and Boo Weekley (2013) diligently plotted their way around the Par 70, both ranking in the top-10 for Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. Power isn’t an advantage around this layout where birdies are hard to come by if the wind blows – Colonial ranked 6th, 15th, 14th and 13th toughest in Birdie Average across the past 4 renewals. Only 2 par-5s, namely the 1st and the 11th, ranked 13th toughest on Tour for Birdie or Better in 2017, so look for players who are comfortable to score on both par-3s and par-4s.

Colonial really plays as difficult as turf and wind conditions dictate. 12 months ago, Kisner made only 16 birdies, but with a field-best 4 bogeys and a double bogey, he outlasted the freer scoring O’Hair, Rahm and Spieth. But an eagle (a rarity here) and 21 birdies for Kirk and 22 birdies for Spieth highlights that Colonial, if conditions allow, can yield birdies for streaky putters who are in hot form on the Bentgrass green complexes which have nuances that take real time to understand. No wonder therefore that experienced players, with a liking for tight Par 70s, tend to thrive here.

Conditions-wise, wind shouldn’t be a factor this week, with nothing over 12 mph forecast across the 4 days of play. So it’s rather straightforward on that front, but the real intrigue for the PGA Tour and Course Superintendent Scott Ebers will be the intense temperatures that Fort Worth will see this week. Highs of 34 degrees Celsius (Thursday), 35 (Friday) and 38 (on the weekend) are intense. Unchecked the course would soon become firm and fast, especially the Bentgrass greens. So for me, I think they will be forced to water at the very least the green complexes throughout the tournament. No wind, watered greens and fast fairways are could mean very low scoring here.

Winners: 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17); 2015: Chris Kirk (-12); 2014: Adam Scott (-9); 2013: Boo Weekley (-14); 2012: Zach Johnson (-12); 2011: David Toms (-13); 2010: Zach Johnson (-21).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Jason Dufner, Webb Simpson, Jimmy Walker, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee and Jon Rahm.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Chez Reavie; 2) Jim Furyk; 3) Ryan Armour; 4) Alex Cejka; 5) Emiliano Grillo / Ted Potter Jnr; 7) Chris Stroud; 8) Kevin Streelman; 9) Ben Crane / Russell Henley; 11) Bryson DeChambeau / Chris Kirk; 13) Adam Hadwin / Justin Rose / Brian Stuard; 16) C.T. Pan; 17) John Senden / Webb Simpson; 19) David Lingmerth / Conrad Shindler.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Joaquin Niemann / Brooks Koepka; 6) Adam Scott; 7) Bryson DeChambeau; 8) Adam Hadwin / Webb Simpson / Steve Stricker; 11) Chris Kirk / Andrew Putnam; 13) Justin Rose; 14) Charley Hoffman / Beau Hossler / Zach Johnson / Si Woo Kim / J.T. Poston. 19) Nick Watney; 20) Emiliano Grillo.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Jimmy Walker / Aaron Wise; 3) Ben Crane; 4) Chesson Hadley; 5) J.T. Poston / Chez Reavie; 7) Sam Burns; 8) Charley Hoffman / Rickie Fowler / Justin Rose; 11) Bryson DeChambeau; 12) Webb Simpson; 13) Kevin Na; 14) Emiliano Grillo / Si Woo Kim / Steve Stricker; 18) Ted Potter Jnr; 19) Cody Gribble / Trey Mullinax / Cameron Smith.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Kisner 33/1; 2016: Spieth 7/1; 2015: Kirk 35/1; 2014: Scott 18/1; 2013: Weekley 100/1; 2012: Z Johnson 16/1; 2011: Toms33/1; 2010: Z Johnson 50/1. Average: 20/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 23/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind S 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 98. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning thunderstorms, the original tee times featuring twosomes off of one tee beginning at 7:30 a.m. were changed to a two-tee start with threesomes at 10:19 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph
• 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Forth Worth, Texas, is here: The firmness, or lack of, at TPC Sawgrass has been a talking point on the PGA Tour for a number of weeks. We saw firm conditions at Quail Hollow; soft conditions throughout as the course was watered at TPC Sawgrass; and last week a mixture at the Trinity Forest faux-links, so it will be interesting to see what happens this week at Colonial. Sweltering conditions approaching 38 degrees Celsius have not been seen at his tournament for a number of years. Expect course watering, but to what extent we don’t know. Greens most certainly will need moisture applied across the 4 days of competition I’d assume. No meaningful wind is forecast.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of this event since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Kevin Kisner (-10). 293 yards (39th), 71.4% fairways (1st), 73.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 33’3″ proximity to hole (21st), 78.9 % scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (28th).
• 2016, Jordan Spieth (-17). 299 yards (14th), 50.0% fairways (54th), 70.8% greens in regulation (17th), proximity to hole 34’8″ (59th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2015, Chris Kirk (-12). 277 yards (41st), 50.0% fairways (60th), 63.9% greens in regulation (62nd), proximity to hole 33’9″ (57th), 61.5 % scrambling (39th), 1.57 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2014, Adam Scott (-9). 290 yards (52nd), 66.1% fairways (8th), 72.2% greens in regulation (13th), proximity to hole 29’2″ (4th), 70.0 % scrambling (16th), 1.73 putts per GIR (17th).
• 2013, Boo Weekley (-14). 299 yards (17th), 71.4% fairways (6th), 75.0% greens in regulation (5th), proximity to hole 25’9″ (1st), 61.1% scrambling (40th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2012, Zach Johnson (-12). 289 yards (51st), 58.9% fairways (26th), 62.5% greens in regulation (38th), proximity to hole 35’3″ (26th), 70.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2011, David Toms (-15). 299 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (4th), 72.2% greens in regulation (4th), proximity to hole 28’1″ (2nd), 70.0% scrambling (5th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2010, Zach Johnson (-21). 291 yards (45th), 69.6% fairways (10th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 25’10” (6th), 72.7% scrambling (13th), 1.66 putts per GIR (11th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 36th, Driving Accuracy: 21st, Greens in Regulation: 18th, Proximity to Hole: 22nd, Scrambling: 15th, Putting Average 9th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Colonial sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Kevin Kisner (2017): “Played nicely coming down the fairway, which you got to do around here. I’ve played really conservative on the pins I didn’t like. I just love the golf course. I feel super comfortable. I know the pins I wants to go after and the pins I don’t. It’s just like what I grew up on, so that’s why I love it. Most important thing about playing well around here is getting the ball in the fairway, because you just can’t get to the small greens out of the rough. You get so blocked out with the trees if you’re in the rough that you hit so many run-up shots you’re just not going to hit the greens with. Probably hit 11, 12 fairways both days. You’re going to hit some short irons. If you hit the green, you don’t have more than about a 25-footer for birdie.“

Chris Kirk (2016): “I’ve played well here over the years, but I don’t think people would consider me an elite ball striker or shot maker necessarily. It’s been a course that’s suited guys who hit the ball right to left over the years, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, Stricker, some other guys like that, and I definitely fit in that category. I think that I’ve always been a very good iron player. I may not have driven the ball as well as some guys over the years, but I’ve always been a very good, solid iron player and control my distance really well and usually play well in the wind, and if you pair that with making a putt here or there, that usually does well around here.

The course appeals to more of a feel player. If you can kind of flight your shots and work the ball with the wind here and there, you’re going to have a big advantage out here because there’s a ton of cross-winds that you play in on this course. You’ll get a lot of off the left and a little in or maybe a little help. It’s just a lot of sort of calculating exactly what that wind is doing on those iron shots, and you have to be very precise with how small the greens are here. So yeah, I would think that a feel player and being able to judge those distances and judge that wind just right is crucial here.“

Jordan Spieth (2015): “I think it’s going to be easier to hit fairways because one of the harder parts when this is firm and fast is holding the fairway. So it’s going to be easier to hit fairways, but I think if you don’t hit the fairway, I would imagine the rough’s going to be very healthy. You’re going to have to judge if it’s going to come out fat or if it’s going to come out as a flyer. And if you get above the hole around here, it doesn’t matter if they’re wet or not, they’re going to be fast, and you’re going to struggle. So it’s still going to be a test. I think that, yes, I think that the scores, if it’s moist, they’ll be lower. I don’t know about record setting, but doesn’t really change much about the tournament, though. It doesn’t make it a bomber’s course. It doesn’t make it favour I don’t think any type of player. It’s just going to be more of a premium on hitting fairway.“

Adam Scott (2015): “But this is going to be a really good week to, you know, really play within myself. You can’t be wild around this golf course. You have to really hit the fairway this week. There’s a premium on that. The rough is up. It will be very hard to score well playing from off the fairway this week. So I think it’s a good week for me to really, you know, kind of tone things down a little bit and be very patient, which is pretty much how I played last year and it worked well. Well, the course is not too soft at the moment. So it’s in good shape. But ideally it would stay this way. When the course gets soft and quite soggy, it plays a lot easier for us because the ball doesn’t run so far off line as fairways get wider, greens become bigger. So I would say scoring is better. And certainly around this course, when this gets firm, it presents challenges, because you can’t bite off corners on holes that dogleg because the fairways are so narrow if the ball is running, and you have to be very precise into the greens when it’s firm as well leaving it under the hole. It’s the old style of golf that will prevail over 72 holes if you’re fairly cautious and make few mistakes, you’ll have a good score.“

Boo Weekley (2014): “We just kind of broke the golf course down into places where we know that we can take advantage. If we hit it in the right spot, we can take advantage because we’ve got wedge in our hand or what I feel like 7 iron down are scoring clubs. I feel like I can hit it inside 10 feet. So to me that’s where I had to break it down the golf course to where if I hit it here, 3 wood off this hole is going to leave me an 8 iron or 7 iron. If I can get aggressive it’s feeling good, or if I hit driver, pitching wedge to gap wedge. I kept it in front of me. That to me I felt like I was driving the ball good the whole week. As long as I could just keep it in play and keep it out of that little bit of rough around here, you know, I felt like I could get it on the green somewhere and just two putt or make a putt coming in. I felt like every time I stand over it, if my mind’s right, and I feel like I’ve got the right club, I felt like I could knock it in at any moment.“

Matt Kuchar (2014): “It was interesting watching Ryan Palmer go around last year, being a local guy that plays here quite a bit. When you feel like it’s more your home course when you’re playing just for fun, you’re not playing out of irons, irons just aren’t that much fun to hit off the tee. So Ryan is used to hitting driver off most tees. So hitting drivers off the tee, I flip flop every now and then between a driver, sometimes as a 3 wood. Watching a local guy pull driver there, maybe there is something to it. I hit driver there a bit, but that being said, my drive is a little different than some of the longer guys. But my driving accuracy is pretty strong. I think that’s a strength of mine. I try to use those strengths on certain holes where I can take an advantage. Maybe 9, if I’m feeling good with the driver to make that into a birdie hole and try to turn what a lot of times to get a par and get out of there into a legitimate shot at making birdie.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Colonial winners:

• 2017 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 4th.
• 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 26th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2014 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 36th, Round 3: 11th.
• 2013 – Boo Weekley: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2011 – David Toms: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2010 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 3rd.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Kevin Kisner: 56th Sawgrass/MC Eagle Point/2nd New Orleans/11th Heritage.
• Jordan Spieth: 18th TPC4S/MC Sawgrass/2nd Augusta/13th GC of Houston.
• Chris Kirk: 13th Sawgrass/69th Heritage/33rd Augusta/8th TPC San Antonio.
• Adam Scott: 38th Sawgrass/14th Augusta/3rd Bay Hill/25th Doral.
• Boo Weekley: MC TPC4S/48th Sawgrass/58th Quail/6th New Orleans.
• Zach Johnson: 2nd Sawgrass/69th Quail/2nd Heritage/32nd Augusta.
• David Toms: 2nd Sawgrass/24th Quail/18th New Orleans/24th Augusta.
• Zach Johnson: MC San Antonio/22nd Sawgrass/51st Quail/47th Heritage.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Fathauer / Kraft / Poston – 1AM/2PM -5/65.
• 2016 – Molder – AM -6/64.
• 2015 – Ishikawa / Na / Spieth / Weekley – 2AM/2PM -6/64.
• 2014 – D Johnson – PM -5/65.
• 2013 – Palmer – AM -8/62.
• 2012 – Johnson – AM -6/64.
• 2011 – Reavie / Toms – AM -8/62.
• 2010 – Adams / Bohn / Overton – 2AM/1PM Split -7/63.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Justin Rose, Steve Stricker.
• 5 – Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth.
• 4 – Webb Simpson.
• 3 – Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott.
• 2 – Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney.
• 1 – Jonathan Byrd, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Bill Haas, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Kisner, Russell Knox, Martin Laird, Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin, Kevin Na, Sean O’Hair, Louis Oosthuizen, Rod Pampling, Ted Potter Jnr, Chez Reavie, Rory Sabbatini, Xander Schauffele, Brandt Snedeker, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman.

Colonial has a habit of producing shorter-priced winners. Kevin Kisner won at 33/1 last term whilst Jordan Spieth was the 7/1 favourite in 2015. Chris Kirk delivered at 35/1 in 2015, whilst Adam Scott was 18/1 in 2014, although the in-form Boo Weekley bucked the trend in 2013 when he won at a generous 100/1. Previous to that winners prices at the Crowne Plaza Invitational read: 2009: 28/1; 2010: 50/1; 2011: 33/1; 2012: 16/1.

It’s clear that experience wins around Colonial with only World Number 1 (at the time) Adam Scott winning here with less than 3 tournament appearances prior. But as with many a classical golf course, both short-game specialists or grinding ball-strikers can get the job done at Colonial Country club, where scoring is generally mid-teens under par unless the wind really blows. With little Texas wind forecast and with temperatures up to 38 degrees Celsius forecast, I think the course will have to be watered at various stages this week. As we know the PGA Tour professionals can score when conditions allow, especially when wind is not factor, so I can see mid-teens being the winning target this week.

As well as experience, previous top 10 finishes again seems almost necessity. Again World Number 1 (at the time) Adam Scott won here with nothing better than 64th and 65th in 2 previous appearances. But that is undoubtedly the outlying form guide, as Kisner (5th and 10th), Kirk (5th), Weekley (9th), Zach Johnson (1st, 4th, 9th) and Toms (2nd, 3rd, 4th) all had top 10 results here before triumphing since 2011.

My selections are as follows: