Welcome to the 2023 ‘FedExCup Fall’ which will ultimately finalise top 125 eligibility for next season that will start for the first time since 2013 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. While players in the top 50 will continue to be eligible for FedExCup Fall events, players ranked 51st and beyond carry over their FedExCup Points from the Regular Season and the FedEx St. Jude Championship and will continue to accumulate points through the FedExCup Fall toward their eligibility status for 2024.
Additionally the top 10 players in the FedExCup standings, not otherwise exempt, from the FedExCup Fall are eligible for two Signature Events in 2024 – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational. This allows for trending players this autumn to play their way into the biggest tournaments early in 2024.
The FedExCup Fall element has been reduced to 7 events from 9 in 2022, with the South Korean-funded CJ Cup disappearing from the schedule and the Houston Open moving from November to March. The ZOZO Championship again will be played at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club outside of Tokyo, Japan, whilst Mexico’s World Wide Technology Championship moves from El Camaleon (now hosts on the LIV Tour) to El Cardonal at Diamante.
The Fortinet Championship at the classical, tree-lined Silverado Country Club attracts a number of quality players year in, year out. This 2023 renewal which starts the FedExCup Fall sees defending champion Max Homa go for a 3-peat, with Justin Thomas also in the field.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Fortinet Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: Silverado Resort and Spa was purchased in 2010 by a small group of individuals including Johnny Miller who soon set about updating both the North and South courses. Set in the rich wine growing country of the Napa Valley, the North Course had played host to the PGA Tour from 1968 to 1976 and also the Champions Tour from 1977 to 1980. Miller’s goal had always been to attract the PGA Tour back to the North Course with a view to potentially landing the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the future. So 2011 saw Miller re-design both courses with the 1966 Trent Jones Jnr tournament course receiving a renovation that added 250 yards and saw a host of holes re-routed.
North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa, California: Designer: Trent Jones Jnr, 1966 with a Miller redesign, 2011; Course Type: Classical, Resort, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,123 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 2; Fairways: Bermudagrass with Poa Annua, and Rye ; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass and Rye , 2.5″; Greens: 5,400 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft.
Course Scoring Average: 2014: 71.70 (-0.30), Difficulty Rank 24 of 52 courses, 2015: 71.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50 courses. 2016: 70.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 23 of 51 courses. 2018: 71.10 (-0.90), Difficulty Rank 29 of 49 courses. 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Difficulty Rank 19 of 41 courses. 2020: 70.21 (-1.79), Difficulty Rank 44 of 51 courses. 2021: 71.03 (-0.97), Difficulty Rank, 32 of 50 courses. 2022: 71.52 (-0.48). Difficulty Rank, 21 of 50 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Silverado and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Trent Jones Jnr designs include:
Chambers Bay – 2015 U.S. Open
CordeValle – 2010 – 2013 Frys.com Open
Course Overview: The North Course is a classical, tree-lined track that’s set up to be scoreable at the Fortinet Championship. It’s not overly long at just over 7,120 yards, however the Par 72 features plenty of dog-legs with Napa Valley Oaks and Redwoods strategically placed to block approach shots. Miller re-routed a number of holes, lengthened the course, and re-worked the bunkering with the goal of creating an ‘Augusta-type’ feel. Fairways are on the tight side and are very difficult to hit – but the penalty is not massive despite 3″ rough. Green complexes and surrounding rough are the main defence with some fairly severe undulations, and with winning totals at -16/272, -19/269, -21/267 and -17/271 across the last 4 seasons, this course doesn’t offer-up too much resistance when playing well.
This event traditionally favoured free-scoring players who can putt beautifully and confidently on greens that have Poa Annua within their structure. As we know Poa Annua is not every player’s cup of tea. Previous to 2015, a winners’ list with Molder, Blixt, Walker and Bae clearly indicated that strong putters, and those with an excellent scrambling game from the rough, had an advantage in Northern California. But in more recent times, bigger-hitting ball-strikers in the shape of Max Homa (x2), Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele (x2) and Emiliano Grillo have won here at Silverado.
Set-up wise, the North Course at Silverado is a classical-style golf course – indeed Johnny Miller has a long-term goal of landing a U.S. Open or PGA Championship here. Fairly tight, tree-lined fairways can block approach shots and pin positions can be tucked into areas where accessibility is difficult. To add to the difficulty, 2017 saw 7 green complexes feature closely mown run-off areas which grab wayward approaches. The greens themselves, especially on the front side, are described as severely sloping by many, which in turn has placed Silverado in the top-half of difficulty on Tour when it comes to proximity to the pin since its arrival on the schedule. Another insightful statistic is that the course typically ranks in the top 20 hardest for Going for the Green, which makes sense when so many fairways are missed by the field.
2023 also sees a re-routed course to aid facilities and try to create exciting finishes. 10 holes will be played in a different order. Holes 1-7 and 18 will remain as in year’s past. The new finishing stretch will be as follows – 14th (par-4), 15th (par-5), 16th (par-4), 17th (par-3) and 18th (par-5). The signature par-3 on the course – the member’s 11th – will become the new 17th.
Fortinet Championship Winners: 2022: Max Homa (-16); 2021: Max Homa (-19); 2020: Stewart Cink (-21); 2019: Cameron Champ (-17); 2018: Kevin Tway (-14); 2017: Brendan Steele (-15); 2016: Brendan Steele (-18); 2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15); 2014: Sang-moon Bae (-15); CordeValle Winners: 2013: Jimmy Walker (-17); 2012: Jonas Blixt (-16); 2011: Bryce Molder (-17); 2010: Rocco Mediate (-15).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Cam Davis, Stephan Jaeger, Kevin Yu, Luke List, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Champ and Will Gordon.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 77. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Cloudy and rainy. High of 63. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Due to inclement weather, the final round featured threesomes off split tees from 8 – 10:12 a.m. PT. Preferred lies were in effect for the final round.
2021: Thursday: Overcast morning leading to a sunny afternoon. High of 76. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 67. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind WNW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed one hour and began at 8 a.m. Cloudy, with a high of 69. Wind SSW 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 70. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hazy filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Morning tee times were delayed 10 minutes due to fog. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 73. Wind NW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind W 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 70. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny and windy, with a high of 84. Wind N 15-25 mph, with gusts to 36 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 84. N wind 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with moderate rain showers in the afternoon. High of 66. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66, with heavy rain in the afternoon. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 66. Wind SW 8-15 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW at 8-14 mph. Friday: High of 79. SW wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind S at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a high of 75. SW wind at 6-12 mph.
Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Napa, California is here. This part of California, famous for its vineyards, is notoriously dry. With little in the way of rain this month and none due in tournament week, we should again see fast fairway conditions. Tournament organisers are likely to produce receptive enough greens, which sometimes firm-up across the weekend. With little wind in the forecast and with temperatures of 26-28 degrees (79-82 Fahrenheit), I would expect the standard high-teens scoring affair.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Open Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Kevin Yu; 3) Max Homa; 4) Tyler Duncan; 5) Stephan Jaeger; 6) Davis Thompson; 7) Beau Hossler / Webb Simpson; 9) James Hahn; 10) Max McGreevy; 11) Akshay Bhatia; 12) Cam Davis / Nate Lashley; 14) Jim Herman; 15) Brent Grant; 16) Cody Gribble / J.J. Spaun; 18) Matti Schmid; 19) Sahith Theegala; 20) Andrew Novak / Austin Smotherman; 22) Scott Harrington / Martin Laird; 24) Kevin Tway; 25) Sam Stevens.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Andrew Putnam; 4) Charley Hoffman; 5) Max Homa; 6) Cam Davis; 7) Kevin Streelman; 8) Eric Cole; 9) Matthias Schwab; 10) David Lipsky; 11) Brendon Todd; 12) J.J. Spaun; 13) Russell Knox; 14) Lucas Herbert; 15) Matthew NeSmith / Seung-yul Noh / Chez Reavie; 18) Kevin Roy; 19) Ben Taylor; 20) Max McGreevy / Chad Ramey; 23) Andrew Novak; 24) Stephan Jaeger; 25) Brandon Matthews / Taylor Montgomery.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Webb Simpson; 2) Wesley Bryan; 3) Sahith Theegala; 4) Mackenzie Hughes; 5) Lanto Griffin / Alex Noren / Scott Stallings; 8) Satoshi Kodaira; 9) Cam Davis / Stephan Jaeger; 11) Troy Merritt; 12) Stewart Cink; 13) Max McGreevy; 14) Chesson Hadley / Taylor Montgomery; 16) Jason Dufner; 17) Kevin Streelman; 18) Kevin Yu; 19) Doc Redman; 20) Martin Trainer; 21) Ryan Gerard / K.H. Lee; 23) Seung-yul Noh; 24) Dylan Frittelli / Charley Hoffman.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Webb Simpson; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Max Homa; 4) Cam Davis; 5) Sam Ryder; 6) Stephan Jaeger; 7) Max McGreevy; 8) Kevin Streelman; 9) J.J. Spaun; 10) Kevin Yu; 11) Doc Redman; 12) Jason Dufner; 13) Scott Harrington / Charley Hoffman / Brendon Todd; 16) Matt Kuchar / Martin Laird; 18) Andrew Putnam; 19) Sahith Theegala; 20) Russell Knox; 21) Matti Schmid; 22) Tyler Duncan; 23) Ryan Gerard; 24) Chez Reavie / Matti Schwab.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Dylan Wu; 2) Peter Kuest; 3) Alex Noren; 4) Nick Hardy; 5) Max Homa; 6) Eric Cole; 7) Chris Stroud; 8) Garrick Higgo; 9) Taylor Montgomery; 10) Webb Simpson; 11) Aaron Baddeley; 12) Brendon Todd; 13) Beau Hossler; 14) Zac Blair; 15) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Scott Stallings; 17) Tommy Gainey / Andrew Putnam; 19) Cam Davis / James Hahn; 21) Tyler Duncan / Callum Tarren; 23) Justin Suh; 24) Martin Laird; 25) Nick Watney.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Webb Simpson; 2) Max Homa; 3) Cam Davis; 4) Chesson Hadley; 5) Eric Cole / Stephan Jaeger / Alex Noren / Sam Ryder; 9) J.J. Spaun; 10) Dylan Wu; 11) Tyler Duncan / Andrew Putnam; 13) Martin Laird; 14) Charley Hoffman; 15) Brendon Todd; 16) Garrick Higgo / Kevin Streelman / Erik van Rooyen; 19) Nick Hardy; 20) Doug Ghim / Sahith Theegala; 22) David Lipsky; 23) Beau Hossler; 24) Stewart Cink / William McGirt.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Silverado since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Fortinet Championship winners here at Silverado since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical California Par 72:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Max Homa (-16). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 15th.
2021, Max Homa (-19). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.
2020, Stewart Cink (-21). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
2019, Cameron Champ (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
2018, Kevin Tway (-14). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 23rd, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.
2017, Brendan Steele (-15). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
2016, Brendan Steele (-18). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 6th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Max Homa (-16). 301 yards (34th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 32’11” proximity to hole (10th), 85.7 % scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (13th).
2021, Max Homa (-19). 311 yards (24th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (19th), 37’2″ proximity to hole (48th), 60.0 % scrambling (42nd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2020, Stewart Cink (-21). 316 yards (11th), 55.4% fairways (24th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 29″8″ proximity to hole (22nd), 90.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.74 putts per GIR (52nd).
2019, Cameron Champ (-17). 337 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (21st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 37″9″ proximity to hole (51st), 84.2 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (38th).
2018, Kevin Tway (-14). 319 yards (14th), 51.8% fairways (40th), 72.2% greens in regulation (18th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (48th), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (22nd).
2017, Brendan Steele (-15). 328 yards (1st), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 29″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 73.3 % scrambling (7th), 1.81 putts per GIR (60th).
2016, Brendan Steele (-18). 292 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (21st), 30″0″ proximity to hole (16th), 72.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2015, Emiliano Grillo (-15). 300 yards (37th), 64.3% fairways (8th), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 30″0″ proximity to hole (3rd), 73.7 % scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (41st).
2014, Sang-moon Bae (-15). 299 yards (26th), 55.4% fairways (45th), 75.0% greens in regulation (6th), 28″5″ proximity to hole (4th), 77.8 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 19th, Driving Accuracy: 18th, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Proximity to Hole: 23rd, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 28th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how the North Course at Silverado has set-up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Max Homa (2022): “I drove the ball unbelievable last year if I remember right. This year my mid irons have been really good, but it’s not too far off. My game honestly from last year all the way to now, from this event last year to now feels very similar, which is great. It’s just a testament to my coach, Mark Blackburn. It feels like I’m doing the same stuff, I’m just getting a little better at it, so it feels quite similar. I get on these greens and I feel like I read them really well. Joe reads them great, so anytime I brought him 2 in for a read I just feel like we have a good eye for the greens. So nothing feels too different, but I’m happy that, last year I felt like I was struggling a little bit around like 150 to 200 and this week it feels much better so some of these par 3s I feel a lot more confident on. Yeah, it’s not too dissimilar.
“Yeah, the North Course fits my eye. I think I know what to do when I’m out of position, I think that’s quite important. And yeah, when I am in position, it fits me. I hit a lot of wedges, been hitting the wedges really well, so when you get a lot of wedges from these fairways I feel like I can attack the pins, and when I’ve been out of position I just feel like I know where to leave the golf ball. I don’t know, I guess I just see the golf course pretty well.”
Max Homa (2021): “I love coming back to California. I seem to play well in California. I love this event, I love this golf course.
My eagle on 16. Yeah, I made the worst swing I’ve made in like a year and a half on the hole prior and fortunately came back and hit a really good drive, had a really good number. I can’t remember what it was, but it was a perfect 7-wood if I just drew it a little. That hole’s interesting, if you just keep it anywhere inside the bunker and right of the pin, it will bounce up onto the green. Went just past. Haven’t made a long putt in a while, so it’s nice to see one go in. Yeah, it was just one of those holes, hit three good shots and good to be 2 under on one hole.
This place is all based you know, yesterday you saw the pins were gnarly and nobody would make a lot of birdies. Today they were definitely more favourable, but you need to be in the fairway or at least on the right angle, but if you hit good shots, you’ll get it close. Yesterday you couldn’t really get the ball too close to the hole, so just depends what they do with the golf course with the pins tomorrow.”
Stewart Cink (2020): “Well, I think the ground has dried out a lot, so the ball’s going farther in the air, but it’s also going farther when it lands, especially off the tees, so you’re having to account for a little bit more of that. The rough is dried out, so it’s playing a little bit more unpredictable than it was before when it was still kind of damp. And the greens are still holding, so I still expect scores to be pretty low today.”
Cameron Champ (2019): “I just play (the par-5s) them as aggressive as I can. Obviously key is getting it in the fairway out here, some of the par 5s are pretty narrow, and then from there, like I said, I usually play my best whenever I stay aggressive and that’s what I try to do on the par 5s. Out here it just depends on the pins. Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter. I’ll just try to position it off the tee. If the pin’s far left, I’ll play the right side. And like I said, I’ll take it in the rough being up there hitting driver. So that’s kind of how I look at it this week. For me, the par 5s out here are key. I feel like I have to birdie those with my length, and some of the chances I can have at them, those are key for the rest of the week.”
Kevin Tway: “Yeah, I played in the wind all the time from Oklahoma State, and now I live in Jupiter and it’s windy there, so I’m comfortable with the wind. Got to hit the ball solid and that’s just what I’m trying to do. Yeah, the 2nd hole’s hard, especially when it was cold this morning. I think I hit 2-iron and I don’t hit many 2-irons on par 3s. Yeah, that hole’s tough. If the greens firm up, a couple of pins could be pretty tough, but there’s no wind, so it should be pretty good scoring.”
Brendan Steele: “The difficulty on this course is definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance. As the week goes on it’s going to firm up. If you’re out of position it’s going to be almost impossible to hold the greens, as it was last year. I think even though there are some shorter holes that they’re really good strategically because they have areas where you can’t be always. So you know, okay, if I’m going to lay up here I need to lay up left so I can come in this way or you have the tree in your way or there is a bunker on the other side. If you’re hitting good shots you can score well, and if you’re not hitting good shots it’ll penalized you a little bit.”
Emiliano Grillo: “The course asks you to be aggressive a little bit, but you have to be very smart out there. If you play smart you can score well. Out here you got to play well off the tee. You got to play from the fairway. If not, you can get some bogeys out there. I think the main key is staying patient and hitting some solid shots.”
Justin Rose: “Yeah, this is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you do drive it well around here, you set up a lot of birdie chances. The par-5s are all within range and then there are a lot of par-4s where you have wedges into the green. That’s why you see guys going low. Also a tricky course. Has its subtleties. You got to put the ball in play. There are some doglegs. Pretty narrow off the tee. It’s kind of the course if you play well you can go low. It’s going to find out our if you’re not on your game.”
Sang-moon Bae: “Honestly, I really like this course because it’s like a classic – always classic courses you need really good iron shots for second, really narrow, small greens, a lot of undulation. I think the greens were pretty soft this week, but the fairways were a little firm, but rough is not easy. So I drove it pretty good, but iron shot was really, really good, and that’s why I made a lot of birdies this week.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Fortinet Championship since 2014:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Fortinet Championship winners since 2014 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
2017 – Duncan/Hoge/Steele – All AM -7/65 – 125/1 100/1 45/1.
2016 – Piercy – AM -10/62.
2015 – Steele – AM -8/64.
2014 – Bae/Gonzales AM/PM Split -6/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Max Homa.
3 – Jimmy Walker.
2 – Scott Piercy, Chez Reavie, Nick Watney.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Sang-moon Bae, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Cam Davis, Jason Dufner, James Hahn, J.B. Holmes, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, William McGirt, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O’Hair, D.A. Points, Ted Potter Jnr, Andrew Putnam, Scott Stallings, Chris Stroud, Justin Thomas, Kevin Tway, Erik van Rooyen, Richy Werenski.
The Fortinet Championship, previously the Safeway Open or Frys.com, produces some interesting trends. Although the tournament has had various schedule slots across the ‘Fall Series,’ all winners have been between 16/1 and 200/1 across the past 12 renewals.
In terms of form Max Homa (2021 win), Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Brendan Steele and Kevin Tway of late, highlight that immediate top 10 form here is no requirement for victory. Emiliano Grillo, in 2015, on the other hand, was quite simply playing exceptional golf after winning the web.com Tour Championship on his previous outing.
Cink, Steele, Bae, Molder, Blixt and Walker all had previous main Tour top 10 finishes ‘Out West’ to their names, whilst Max Homa had won the 2021 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in February, prior to winning here at Silverado in September. So west coast form is an angle, but it’s not imperative.
This tournament in recent times has also seen a pretty equal mix of experienced Tour winners and maiden winners – Molder, Blixt and Walker at CordeValle; plus Grillo and Tway all won their first PGA Tour titles here.
On the other side, Sang-moon Bae had won at TPC Four Seasons in 2013 prior to winning here in 2014 and Brandon Steele had only tasted PGA Tour victory once, a distant 4 years prior to lifting the trophy here in 2016. Cameron Champ was also another single winner when capturing the title here in 2019, having won the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship prior to his win here at Silverado. Stewart Cink had won 6 times on the PGA Tour, but was winless for 11 years before winning here in 2020, with Max Homa being a 2-time PGA Tour winner prior to his 2021 victory and a 4-time winner prior to 2022. As far as patterns go, it’s a veritable melting pot in reality.
Spreading things slightly broader and taking the first tournament after the Tour Championship into account across the last 13 seasons – naturally this includes the ‘Fall Series’ from 2010 through to 2013 – 10 of those 13 tournaments have been won by players ranked in the top 90 in the Official Golf World Rankings. Bae (2014), Tway (2018) and Cink (2020) won with OWGR ranks of 195, 138 and 319 respectively.
Bill Haas – 2010 Viking Classic – OWGR 89 – 22/1
Kevin Na – 2011 Shriners Open – OWGR 76 – 60/1
Ryan Moore – 2012 Shriners Open – OWGR 44 – 14/1
Jimmy Walker – 2013 Frys.com Open – OWGR 66 – 30/1
My Final Fortinet Championship Tips Are As Follows:
Sahith Theegala 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Long term readers will know I’m an admirer of Sahith Theegala who at 37th in the OWGR is the third highest player in those rankings not to have a PGA Tour victory to his name behind only Tommy Fleetwood and Denny McCarthy. For a player of his undoubted enthusiasm, capability and talent, that win you would assume has to come soon and California is very close to his heart.
2023 has seen the 25 year-old Californian and Pepperdine University graduate finish 9th at Augusta National, his first top 10 in a Major Championship, where he was also top debutant. 13th at the FedEx St Jude Championship and 15th at the BMW Championship across the recent FedExCup Playoffs, Sahith was 31st in the FedExCup rankings, missing out on the Tour Championship by a single place.
Theegala has also shown a liking for playing out west. 14th (2020) and 6th (2021) here at Silverado, 2023 also saw him finish 4th at Torrey Pines and 6th at Riviera Country Club in elite fields. Cast your mind back to 2021 when on a sponsor’s invite Sahith shot 66-64-69 to lead the Waste Management Phoenix Open going into Sunday. With the likes of Koepka, Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele breathing down his neck the man from Orange, California, played nicely in the heat of a Sunday battle, ultimately finishing only a shot out of a play-off where Scheffler triumphed over Cantlay. In this extremely weak field you have to rate his chances of racking up a first PGA Tour victory. RESULT: Winner
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I’ll go for a twin-pronged attack towards the top of the market and another player I keep a close eye on, Cam Davis.
Having booked his spot for the 2024 Signature events having finished 48th in the FedExCup Playoffs, next target for the 28 year-old Sydneysider has to be consolidating a World Ranking top 50 spot by the close of 2023. That of course then opens the door to a spot at the 2024 Masters.
The truth is that Davis has undoubtedly had his most consistent year ever on the PGA Tour. Yes he won the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, which gave him a real shot to qualify for the Tour Championship – he finished 6 spots shy at 36th in the FedExCup rankings that year – but 2023 has been a breakout year. 6th at the Players Championship, 7th at the RBC Heritage and 4th at the PGA Championship all came at the very top level. Late summer has seen 10th at the 3M Open, 7th at the Wyndham Championship and 6th at the St Jude Championship. That tournament of course featured the best 70 players on the PGA Tour. Next step has to be a second Tour victory.
17th (2019) and 36th (2021) here at Silverado across 4 visits, Davis loves short courses where he can club down off the tee, classical old-style set-ups, and his 2021 Rocket Mortgage win came on the Bent/Poa Annua mix greens of Detroit Golf Club. RESULT: 3rd
Beau Hossler 1.5pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
In a weak affair Beau Hossler also has appeal this week.
A strong driver of the golf ball in this field, Beau ranks in the top 10 for Off the Tee and top 25 of my 8-week Strokes Gained Current Form metric having finished 6th at the Barracuda Championship, 13th at the 3M Open and 20th at the St Jude Championship which featured the best 70 players on the PGA Tour.
3rd at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans when teamed with Wyndham Clark and 10th at the Mexico Open (both in April), Beau has been more comfortable when on the higher echelons of the leaderboard in 2023. That has helped his OWGR jump 60 spots to 111th. Good golf takes care of itself with Beau now looking to gain a position in the ‘Next 10’ which represents the top 10 members, not otherwise exempt, from the FedExCup standings at the end of the FedExCup Fall. Those 10 players will get guaranteed starts at both the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational which are Signature events in February.
Runner-up at both the Houston Open and Travelers Championship in 2018, Beau was also the 54-hole leader in 2022 at Pebble Beach and TPC San Antonio – consequently finishing 3rd and 4th. Hailing from Mission Viejo, California, Beau was 2nd and 3rd after 54 holes here at Silverado in 2021, eventually finishing 17th. 2 years later he arrives with boosted confidence arriving after ranking 2nd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green last time out at the FedExCup Playoff event at TPC Southwind. RESULT: T30
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Davis Thompson 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Davis Thompson is another talented sort to get behind this week. Ranking 3rd across our Fortinet Championship Strokes Gained Analysis Thompson is a talented rookie, who whilst at the University of Georgia won the prestigious Jones Cup, helping to power him to the top of the World Amateur Golf Rankings.
His first season on the PGA Tour has been strong enough, currently sitting 73rd in the FedExCup standings now arriving for the second time at Silverado, where he was 5th going into Sunday 12 months ago before finishing 9th. The Fortinet Championship was his first start with a PGA Tour card and highlighted a liking for the west coast. Last year he went on to finish 12th at TPC Summerlin, before finishing 2nd at The American Express – PGA West in January. He also finished 6th on the Korn Ferry Tour last year at TPC Colorado.
3 top 31 finishes in his last 4 outings, namely 24th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 31st at the John Deere Classic and 22nd at the Wyndham Championship, highlight a player whose confidence is growing and Davis undoubtedly has the game-shape in terms of top-class driving and aggressive Going for the Green tendencies to contend this week in Californian wine country. RESULT: T30
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At 114th in the FedExCup standings, Martin Laird still has plenty to play for and the 4-time PGA Tour winner has found a rich vein of form of late. 20th at the Barracuda Championship, an outstanding 2nd at the 3M Open and 58th at the Wyndham Championship ended the regular season on a very positive note.
With his 2-year exemption from winning the 2020 Shriners Open ending at November’s RSM Classic, 40 year-old Laird still has plenty to play for when it comes to keeping full playing privileges for 2024 and he’s always been the sort to go well in the western United States. Living in Colorado having also studied there, that makes sense and his west coast CV includes 2 wins at TPC Summerlin (2009 & 2020), 2nd (2009) at Montreux, 3rd (2011) and 5th (2015) at TPC Scottsdale, 3rd (2022) at Old Greenwood and 3rd (2014), 8th (2016) and 17th (2017) here at Silverado.
Top 25 for Off the Tee, top 20 for Tee to Green and top 15 for Current Form across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis, Martin in my opinion is a live runner this week. RESULT: T19
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