The build-up to the Open Championship kicks off this week in earnest in a high-class affair featuring 8 of the world’s top 10 players and 30 of the top 50 here at Renaissance Club in Scotland.
As per last year, this is a PGA Tour/DP World Tour co-sanctioned affair with roughly half the field allocated to both Tours and a smattering of invites and KPGA players completing the field. A Rolex Series event in terms of its stature, the $9m prize fund, 8,000 Race to Dubai ranking points and 5,000 Ryder Cup points available will certainly grab the attention of all involved.
With Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith the two players missing from the OWGR’s top table, Scottie Scheffler rates as the bookies’ favourite around the 7/1 mark with Rory McIlroy a point or so longer. Patrick Cantlay, defending champion Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler and Viktor Hovland all rate as sub-20/1 chances as players get acclimatised to the UK ahead of next week’s main event.
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Course Overview. The Renaissance Club is this week’s host course for the fifth year running, which gives us the last four year’s renewals to review as a starting point.
Despite sitting on Scotland’s ‘Golf Coast’ in the stretch of land between Muirfield and Archerfield Links, the Renaissance Club isn’t an historic links track – instead it was manufactured from an old pine forest and opened in 2008.
Aesthetically it looks linksy on a stretch of land that’s famous for its links tracks and built to a brief to make it appear like it had been there for a century, however for the purists it’s more ‘links-like’ than pure links. Trees and an old wall complicate matters a little in that respect, balanced with 3 relatively new holes which flank the shore and typical links features such as deep bunkering, gorse and thick rough.
The par 70 is listed as playing 7,237 yards for this week’s test, as it was last year, although that’s from the back tees largely and the DP World Tour have the flexibility to keep the yardage fluid so it remains to be seen how it’s set up each day. 3 par 5s and 5 par 3s explains the par of 70.
Greens are fescue-based, similar to those used at Castle Stuart in this event in the relatively recent past, as well as at Royal Birkdale for the 2017 Open Championship.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Scottish Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Sunshine and showers has been the order of the day in the lead-up to this year’s Scottish Open and more of the same is expected through the 4 days of tournament play. Temperatures will peak around 17 Centigrade (63 Fahrenheit) in the afternoons with wind speeds of around 10-15mph, with the potential for low pressure to develop over the weekend bringing breezier conditions for the business end of proceedings.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.Analysing the final stats of the winners here at the Renaissance Club gives a little more insight into what’s required to succeed on this track:
2022, Xander Schauffele (-7). 309 yards (16th), 48.1% fairways (35th), 70.9% greens in regulation (5th), 42.9% scrambling (70th), 1.69 putts per GIR (6th)
2021, Minwoo Lee (-18). 305 yards (16th), 50% fairways (64th), 76.4% greens in regulation (27th), 64.7% scrambling (45th), 1.66 putts per GIR (3rd).
2020, Aaron Rai (-11). 285 yards (30th), 59.6% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 81.3% scrambling (4th), 1.79 putts per GIR (29th).
2019, Bernd Wiesberger (-22). 302 yards (16th), 63.5% fairways (30th), 81.9% greens in regulation (23rd), 53.8% scrambling (59th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th).
In easier conditions in 2019 and 2021 hitting greens wasn’t remotely an issue – you have to go all the way down to Kurt Kitayama in 43rd place before finding a player who failed to find 70% of GIR in 2019; similarly in 2021 the top 25 were all above that level – and players hitting 80% or more was commonplace both years.
2019 was played in tougher conditions with lower temperatures, wind and rain at various points, leading to a much higher winning total. Last year featured wind too, with Xander Schauffele’s eventual winning score of 7-under proving once again that exposed courses play as tough or as easy as the conditions dictate.
Given the large, easy to hit greens here, proximity is of importance for setting up birdie opportunities, as of course is having a putter warm enough to convert at a regular rate in normal conditions.
Put into context, Wiesberger made a massive 30 birdies in 2019 with the bulk of the damage being done on the par-5s (13-under for the week from a 22-under winning total); likewise Minwoo Lee made 25 birdies and an eagle, and the top 6 finishers in 2021 were a collective 58-under for the long holes over the course of the week.
Last year was different given the severity of the scoring conditions, but Schauffele was still amongst the best par-5 performers on the week, shooting 8-under on the long holes over the course of the 4 days.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green is the most common success factor from the 4 renewals we have data recorded for here:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
In the easiest of the 3 years back in 2019, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green were dominant factors for the top performers, whereas SG Around the Green was far more prominent in 2020’s tougher renewal, alongside SG Tee to Green again.
SG Putting was more prevalent in 2021, again combined with SG Tee to Green, whereas last year’s challenging conditions saw Xander Schauffele produce a field-leading performance from Tee to Green.
Incoming Form: Current form students wouldn’t have taken long to dismiss the chance of Brandon Stone at Gullane back in 2018 with the South African having failed to break the top-60 on any of his previous 7 starts. 400/1 was the reward for punters who managed to overlook his recent finishes.
Prior to that, recent form for all winners of this event since 2010 listed below had been good enough to shortlist them at least, with each Scottish Open champion in that time having recorded a minimum of one top-10 finish in their last 4 starts. In fact you can extend that trend right back to 2002 with the marginal exception of 2004 winner Thomas Levet, however he had finished 8th at Wentworth 5 starts prior and 2nd in Italy a month before that.
2019 and 2020 winners of the Scottish Open, Rai and Wiesberger – both here at Renaissance – had finished as runner-up the week before at the Irish Open, whereas Minwoo Lee had produced a solid top-20 performance at Mount Juliet the weekend prior. Last year’s winner Xander Schauffele was in hot form arriving here, having won the Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour a little over a week before making it back-to-back successes:
2022, Xander Schauffele: 12/35/MC/5/13/18/14/1
2021, Minwoo Lee: MC/MC/28/21/52/MC/42/17
2020, Aaron Rai: MC/21/10/44/31/44/15/2
2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 23/14/70/1/8/76/16/2
2018, Brandon Stone: 22/MC/MC/60/65/MC/MC/69
2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/24/4/MC/4/42/26/MC
2016, Alex Noren: 50/6/9/MC/43/12/MC/8
2015, Rickie Fowler: 71/12/MC/9/1/30/MC/MC
2014, Justin Rose: 14/8/5/4/25/MC/12/1
2013, Phil Mickelson: MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC
2012, JM Singh: 25/32/27/MC/7/MC/30/46
2011, Luke Donald: 4/2/8/4/2/1/7/45
2010, Edoardo Molinari: MC/17/13/MC/36/4/47/42
Event Form: The victories of Bernd Wiesberger, Brandon Stone and Rafa Cabrera-Bello flummoxed event form students with little to work with, before Aaron Rai’s win in 2020 restored some kind of order. Despite this event hopping about in terms of venue, the 6 Scottish Open winners prior to Rafa had also recorded at least one top-10 finish in this event before lifting the trophy.
The trend stops at Edoardo Molinari in 2010, however there may be something positive in terms of experience of playing in similar conditions with similar grasses in the past – indeed the Italian had finished runner-up on his last start on Scottish soil on the Challenge Tour the previous year; with regards Cabrera-Bello, he’d produced a 4th place finish at the Dunhill Links over the years and a further top-10 at Gleneagles. Even Stone, with his poor incoming form, had finished 15th at the Dunhill Links on his previous start in Scotland.
Aaron Rai had finished 9th at Gullane on his Scottish Open debut to rekindle the top-10 stat, however his previous attempt at Renaissance had ended in a missed cut. 2021 winner Minwoo Lee had recorded a 30th place finish on debut here in 2020, opening with a 66 and closing with a 69, to at least give some hint that he’d enjoy the course, whereas Xander built on his 10th place finish on debut 12 before winning here 12 months ago:
2022, Xander Schauffele: 10
2021, Minwoo Lee: 30
2020, Aaron Rai: 9/MC
2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/MC/31/41/51
2018, Brandon Stone: MC
2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/MC/MC/47/MC/27/41/21
2016, Alex Noren: MC/38/67/67/MC/3/MC
2015, Rickie Fowler: 8
2014, Justin Rose: 37/5/MC/MC/MC/14
2013, Phil Mickelson: 35/MC/44/2/38/MC/58/16
2012, JM Singh: 37/MC/MC/43/9/MC/49/42
2011, Luke Donald: 5/2/4
2010, Edoardo Molinari: 54/MC
In total then, 11 of the past 12 Scottish Open champions had recorded a top 30 finish or thereabouts in this event prior to their victory, and we have to go all the way back to Tom Lehman’s victory at Loch Lomond in 1997 before finding a debutant who’s won at this event in its various guises and locations.
My Scottish Open tips are as follows:
Rickie Fowler 3pts EW 16/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Unpicking the top of the market is no mean feat this week with 8 of the world’s top 10 players teeing it up here at Renaissance Club.
The sheer consistency of world number 1 Scottie Scheffler’s long game – and his results too for that matter – could make him an each-way shot to nothing in some punters’ eyes, and I get that argument. 5th at the Byron Nelson this year is his best result when playing the week immediately before a Major though, with a number of more distant efforts on his record, and he could be excused for using this week as a game-sharpening exercise.
Although carrying a better record in his warm-up events, my gut feel is that Rory McIlroy’s focus will be more on next week than this too, however one man who I feel would happily take this title and keep his considerable momentum going is Rickie Fowler.
Already a Scottish Open winner from 2015 when it was hosted at Gullane, Rickie has already shown an appetite for warming up for The Open by winning the week before and that victory is flanked by 3 other top-10 finishes in this event at Royal Aberdeen, Dundonald Links and again at Gullane. Put simply, he’s comfortable on this type of terrain and in this part of the world.
47th last year on his second attempt at Renaissance hides the fact that the 34 year-old sat 8th heading into the weekend when his state of game wasn’t remotely close to where he is right now. 10 top-20 finishes from his last 11 starts, including that long-awaited sixth PGA Tour victory last time out at in Detroit, tells us he’s in a far better place right now game-wise.
We saw Tony Finau celebrate breaking his long winless run last year at the 3M Open by winning his very next start, and last year’s winner here Xander Schauffele also celebrated winning his first bona-fide PGA Tour event for some time at the Travelers Championship by proving victorious here.
That win just over a week ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic has catapulted Fowler up to 12th in the Ryder Cup rankings and he’d be a popular Captain’s pick I’m sure, however he can bolster his claim on a pick and edge closer to an automatic spot by keeping his foot to the floor. I suspect that’s exactly what he’ll do over these coming weeks. RESULT: T42
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Tyrrell Hatton 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Of the next tier in the betting, I was seriously tempted by Jordan Spieth who played at the US Open without any support for his troublesome wrist, however with no competitive play to guide us since that missed cut there’s a leap of faith to assume he’ll be fully fit, focused and not remotely rusty in this elite field.
Tommy Fleetwood’s record here also gets him shortlisted, however 2nd and 4th here in 2020 and 2022 respectively tells us everything about Tommy’s contention to conversion ratio, which takes me to my preference, Tyrrell Hatton.
We’re all used to the Englishman’s histrionics by now when on the golf course and whilst the self-talk may be off-putting to some punters, fact is Tyrrell’s playing some great golf at present and he knows it. 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship, 5th at the Byron Nelson, 12th at the Memorial Tournament and 3rd at the Canadian Open are his last 4 regular PGA Tour event finishes, and although 15th at the US PGA Championship and 27th at the US Open are disappointing by his standards, both followed very poor starts and need to be taken into overall context.
6 wins on the DP World Tour include a BMW PGA Championship in England as the Tour’s flagship event, 3 Rolex Series wins, plus 2 Alfred Dunhill Links titles here in Scotland. All highly relevant and all show an aptitude to convert contending performances into titles at this kind of level.
14th, 18th and 24th from his 3 attempts here include rounds of 64, 65 and 66 which suggests to me he just needs to arrive here with everything clicking for him to truly contend for this title, and with his last two pre-Major efforts reading 5th and 3rd perhaps we’ll see him put a similar level of performance in this week and give himself a live chance on Sunday afternoon. RESULT: T6
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A little further down the betting board, Lucas Herbert appeals given the potential for a breezy weekend if the low pressure system sitting to the west of Scotland develops as expected.
Three times a winner on the DP World Tour since 2020 including the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan in April, the victory that might be most relevant if the wind does pick up this week is his Butterfield Bermuda Championship success in the autumn of 2021 where he produced a closing round of 69 in the wind and rain to secure his maiden PGA Tour title.
Form since his win in Japan has been a little underwhelming with 40th at the US PGA Championship followed by 3 missed cuts, however 15th on his last start at the Travelers Championship at designated event level was much more positive and the 27 year-old’s putting in particular caught the eye that week, ranking 3rd for SG Putting having been largely off the boil in that respect since his win.
The Australian’s efforts in the UK and Ireland over the years are also noteworthy with 3rd at Walton Heath (2018), 7th at Galgorm Castle (2020) and 1st and 9th at Mount Juliet (2021 & 2022) all positive, however form here in Scotland of 7th at the 2018 Dunhill Links and 4th twice here at Renaissance in 2020 and 2021 suggests he’s more than comfortable in this part of the world. RESULT: T60
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Alex Noren 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Another player who’s impressed with the flat stick of late and has even more impressive form in the UK is Alex Noren.
Supporting the Scandinavian Mixed for the past two seasons hasn’t worked out well for the Swede with missed cuts at the following week’s US Open the result each time, however there were a few positive signs in his 12th place finish last month before featuring in a more substantial event last time out by finishing 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, with 5th for Scrambling and 7th for SG Putting the standout metrics.
The UK form I alluded to is extensive: 2016 saw him win the British Masters at The Grove and he followed that up with victory at Wentworth the following year. 9th at Royal Lytham in 2012 and 6th at Royal Birkdale in 2017 is even more relevant given the quality of field and links terrain this week, and you can add the 2016 Scottish Open at Castle Stuart to the list of UK-based relevant highlights.
3rd and 2nd at the Dunhill Links over the years and 2nd next door to here at Archerfield Links for the 2016 Paul Lawrie Match Play adds further evidence that he could go well here and improve on his 30th place course debut 12 months ago.
The other point with Noren is that he’s proven himself willing and capable of winning in the build-up to a Major, whereas others are more interested in peaking for the main event. Aside from his Scottish Open win in 2016 which preceded that year’s Open, he also won the Wales Open in 2011 in his last start before the US Open, the 2015 Nordea Masters ahead of that year’s US Open and the 2018 Open de France on his last outing prior to Carnoustie that year. RESULT: MC
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Matt Wallace 0.5pt EW 200/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Alex Noren will still hold hopes that he can produce the kind of form between now and late September that will add his name to the Ryder Cup conversation, as will Matt Wallace whose late run in 2018 fell just short of convincing Thomas Bjorn to pick him for his team at Le Golf National.
A breakthrough PGA Tour victory at the Corales Championship in March will have put the Englishman on Luke Donald’s radar, however the truth is he’s a long way off the pace when it comes to automatic qualification and he’ll need to produce something special in bigger weeks like this week and next if he’s going to have a say in matters.
Form since his aforementioned victory is largely to blame – indeed you’ll need to scroll a long way down this week’s Scottish Open form stats to find Wallace’s name – however what’s not evident there was the grit and determination he showed to win last week’s Open Qualifier to secure his fourth start at golf’s oldest Major. A second round 64 when missing the cut at the Travelers Championship had hinted at a turnaround in fortunes and the 33 year-old built on that to sit at the top of the pile at West Lancashire GC to qualify for next week.
2nd at Hillside at the 2019 British Masters is encouraging form for this, as is 2nd the following year at Fairmont St Andrews in an event that he really should have won. 14th here at Renaissance on debut saw the Berkshire man sit in 4th place after 54 holes and although this is undoubtedly tougher, Matt has plenty of reasons to give this week his full attention with his underlying form trending nicely. RESULT: T42
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Matthew Southgate 0.5pt EW 300/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Finally, I’ll complete my team with one of my links-loving favourite bets in the shape of Matthew Southgate.
Over the years of backing the Essex man on this kind of test I must have copied, pasted, tweaked and re-spun the same words relating to his links pedigree a dozen times, so I won’t bore you with the same thing again this week. Suffice it to say, this is the sort of track where he plays his best golf. Period.
A solid season thus far sees the 34 year-old in 55th place on the Race to Dubai, and instead of looking over his shoulder for the next few months he can concentrate on working towards securing a place in the lucrative season-ending events later in the year.
Top-12 finishes at the Singapore Classic, Thailand Classic and Volvo Mixed have laid solid foundations for his 2023 effort, with 4th at the Soudal Open rating as his best result of the season, however it was last week’s tie for 10th that really resonated on the exposed, linksy terrain in Denmark. A final round 61 ended with a bogey on the tough 18th, when a birdie would have seen him shoot that magical number, and quite frankly you don’t get chance to shoot 59 anywhere unless you’re playing pretty good golf.
With an Open Championship invite in his pocket courtesy of a gruelling 2-under qualification at Royal Porthcawl over 36 holes, Southgate can play with freedom this week ahead of next week’s event where he’s generally a shorter price to win in the ante-post market than he is this week with extended each-way places. Go figure. RESULT: MC
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