Gran Canaria Lopesan Open Tips

John Catlin became the first three-time post-lockdown winner last week in Austria and Sam Horsfield could quickly follow his example this week in Gran Canaria.

Whereas Catlin has excelled on tougher tracks and in tougher conditions, Horsfield’s duo of successes have come on more free-scoring layouts where birdies and eagles are the order of the day, as opposed to grinding out pars. With both his Hero Open and Celtic Classic wins coming at 18-under, this week should be right up the Englishman’s alley.

The key to Sam’s victories in August, which came just 2 weeks apart, was to maximise birdie opportunities with a field-leading 25 red numbers made at Forest of Arden before he produced 22 birdies and an eagle a fortnight later in Wales. Last week’s 26 birdies was 4 better than his nearest challenger and with generally more scoreable conditions expected this week in the Canaries, the 24 year-old could produce a seriously low total here.

Fact is, Horsfield has been warming up for more silverware for the past few weeks now. 8^th at the Kenya Open saw him find his long game, ranking inside the top-20 for both SG Approach and Tee-to-Green; the week after it was his putter that took centre stage as he finished 3^rd on the same track and topped the SG Putting charts. 15^th last week was due to a slow start more than anything, and having made the cut on the number he progressed smoothly over the weekend to set himself up for a strong performance here this week.

A little onshore breeze won’t bother the Manchester lad who’s finished 4^th at the perennially breezy track that the European Tour use in Perth, plus 7^th at the Vic Open last year was also in gusty conditions.

Seeing the ball falling into the cup is likely to be key this week and with 5 of his 8 rounds in Kenya being 66 or better, combined with last week’s attacking display on a course that demands a more measured approach, this week should set up far better for Sam to complete his hat-trick of European Tour titles. RESULT: 4th

If the rationale for backing Sam Horsfield is all about attacking intent and red numbers on a short, resort course, then supporting Kurt Kitayama comes with a different set of reasons, based far more on his past performances on courses that could correlate well to this week’s task.

Meloneras Golf promises to be a scoreable, coastal track set with Paspalum greens and good courses to consider for correlating results would be the European Tour’s stop-offs in Saudi Arabia, Oman and Mauritius, and in those latter two events we find that the American has won on both layouts. Add to that a 12^th place finish at the Saudi International in strong company earlier this season and 9^th in Qatar – which is also set to Paspalum at its current venue – and this week’s task would seem to set up nicely for the 28 year-old given those efforts.

1^st for SG Tee-to-Green in Qatar was positive for a player whose long game went off the boil following lockdown, and he repeated that statistic the following week in Kenya when finishing runner-up to Justin Harding.

We can forgive him a missed cut a few days later on the same track given that close call, and last week’s 15^th place finish in Austria sets him nicely here on what should be an altogether more compatible test for the Californian. RESULT: MC

A duo of Spaniards at longer prices complete my team this week. Firstly I’m taking a chance on Jorge Campillo for much the same reasons as Kitayama, however we’re getting almost 4 times the price on the Caceres man if he can find some of the form which we know he’s well capable of.

Season-long form of 34/MC/MC/67/MC before capturing his 2^nd European Tour title on the Paspalum greens of Education City in Qatar last year tells us that he doesn’t need to be in sparkling form to find the winning combination. Although this year is hardly any better with form of MC/MC/MC/28/MC/MC, those two most recent weekends off have been close affairs, both featuring rounds of 68, and he’d opened with a round of 67 when defending in Qatar to sit inside the top-10 after the first round, so perhaps all is not lost.

History-wise, I’m struggling to shift him for this test. Aside from his Qatar victory on similar grasses, he’s also finished 2^nd and 4^th in Oman on a fairly compatible track to this week’s task and as a middle-length hitter these shorter setups suit far better than those that are overly stretching from off the tee.

The 34 year-old’s record on home soil is impressive too, with 6 top-10 finishes at all levels in Spain and two top-20 finishes at Valderrama on his last 2 attempts. The more exposed nature of this layout, particularly on the second 9, is much more compatible with Jorge’s game than Valderrama and he could surprise a few here this week. RESULT: MC

Whereas a bounce back to form may be a surprise for Jorge Campillo, at a slightly longer price it would less of a surprise in my mind to see Alejandro Canizares continue his progressive recent form of 20^th/7^th with another decent outing here.

The very early – and fleeting – 200/1 about the Madrid man for this week was plainly wrong seeing as he’s led after round 1 of each of his last 2 outings and kept that form going for 3 rounds last week in Austria before eventually fading on Sunday.

For a player far more used to playing in amenable golfing conditions, I was surprised to see Canizares stick around for as long as he did in Austria, and it’s a testament to how well he’s playing that he still managed to grind out a 7^th place finish. His typically strong putting was evident pretty much throughout, however it was his long game – 6th for Total Driving and 6^th for Ball-Striking – that he was most positive about in interview and that’s noteworthy for a player who’s so strong with the flat stick in hand.

This week of course will be far more comfortable for the 38 year-old and with positive past results on the Paspalum/Coastal combination in Oman (6^th, 2020) and on the sub-7,000 yard layout in Agadir, where he won the second of his European Tour titles in 2014, he should be looking forward to this week’s test. RESULT: T38