Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Hero Indian Open Tips 2023

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Last week’s headline selection Antoine Rozner managed a tie for 5th in Thailand, which meant that the skinniest of profits was eked out of the week when the dust settled. It would have taken something special for anyone to get close to eventual winner Thorbjorn Olesen though, who showed us once again what a class act he is when it all clicks, eventually winning by 4 strokes with a 24-under total.

On we go and the DP World Tour heads north-west to India as we complete our 3-week swing in the east. A relatively short field of 120 players, containing a mix of DP World Tour regulars and a smattering of local players who have been granted national spots, will tee it up around the tough, quirky Gary Player course at DLF Golf and Country Club.

Last week’s winner Thorbjorn Olesen heads the betting this week at 10/1 from one of the players left in his wake in Thailand, Nicolai Hojgaard, who rates as an 11/1 chance with most bookies. Robert MacIntyre follows at 14/1 in a field which quickly thins out in terms of quality and in-form players.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 15:00GMT 20.2.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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DLF G&CC. Designer: Gary Player, 2015; Course Type: Technical; Par: 72; Length: 7,380 yards; Water Hazards: 6 in play; Fairways: Celebration Bermuda; Rough: Celebration Bermuda; Greens: Bermuda Mini Verde.

Course Overview. After a couple of years at the tight, tree-lined sub-7,000 yard Delhi Golf Club, this event moved to Gary Player’s new course in 2017 as the track made its bow on the DP World Tour.

In stark contrast to the previous venue, Player has carved a brute out of the Aravalli Hills which stretches to 7,657 yards in length from the Gold tees, however, as per previous years, the professionals will be playing from some of the forward tees this week, meaning that the parkland-style track will play as a 7,380 yard, Par 72 with the potential for different tees to be used as the tournament progresses.

Built to the latest golf design standards including a full sub-air system, the layout features severe elevation changes, eye-catching bunkering and large, undulating greens.

Fairways are fairly narrow and water features heavily on 6 holes including the par-3 5th which is to an island green as the front 9 (the ‘Lake 9’) meanders around the 2 lakes that the course flanks. The back 9 (the ‘Quarry 9’) is the longest of the two and contains the holes with the most elevation change. Bermudagrass has been used throughout the construction with Mini Verde the strain of choice on the greens.

hero indian open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Indian Open that will help to shape a view on players who may go well this week: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form Stats.

Course Winners.

  • PGTI: 2022: Varun Parikh (-11)
  • DP World Tour: 2019: Stephen Gallacher (-9, 150/1); 2018: Matt Wallace (-11, 66/1); SSP Chawrasia (-10, 80/1).

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The tournament should enjoy sunny conditions with hot temperatures (low 90s Fahrenheit) and light winds expected, with nothing more than 5-10mph in the forecast.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the 3 winners here at DP World Tour level gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher (-9). 291 yards (32nd), 66.1% fairways (45th), 76.4% greens in regulation (12th), 41.2% scrambling (35th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2018: Matt Wallace (-11) . 294 yards (18th), 82.1% fairways (9th), 66.7% greens in regulation (31st), 58.3% scrambling (5th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia (-10). 266 yards (67th), 76.8% fairways (12th), 66.7% greens in regulation (31st), 75% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (7th)

With just 8 players finishing under par in 2017, 15 players beating that mark in 2018 and 26 in red numbers in 2019, and with double-bogeys a very regular occurrence on even the better players’ scorecards, this event is a true test of patience and concentration with danger lurking on virtually every shot.

The greens are huge, particularly on the back-9, and players who are missing the putting surfaces in regulation need to have a razor-sharp short game to save them from dropping shots. The greens themselves are excellent quality, however it’s critical to find the right portion of putting surfaces given the undulations, so quality lag putting is also an important strength to possess.

Incoming Form. Of the 4 course winners, PGTI winner Varun Parikh had the most tangible recent effort to his name having finished 3rd 6 weeks before at the PGTI Players Championship.

The last time the DP World Tour visited these parts, Stephen Gallacher won off the back of 4 straight missed cuts, and you have to go all the way back to the Dunhill Links the previous October before you find a top-10 finish to his name.

It’s fair to say that the incoming form of the other two winners was subtle at best. Matt Wallace had recorded his best finish of the season on his previous start in Qatar when finishing 19th a fortnight before winning here; likewise Chawrasia had also recorded his best result of the season on his last start, 35th at the World Super 6 in Perth:

  • 2022: Varun Parikh: 37/MC/MC/21/23/29/52/53/MC/30/3/20/MC
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: 44/10/70/29/35/60/MC/67/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: 59/4/18/54/34/30/38/32/37/MC/44/19
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia: MC/MC/34/71/47/1/MC/70/MC/MC/MC/35

Course Form: Of the 4 course winners, only Stephen Gallacher in 2019 had any tangible course form, having finished 29th on debut and 7th the year before his win:

  • 2022: Varun Parikh: MC
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: 29/7
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: Debut
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia: Debut

The key aspect to focus on this week in my view is the difficulty of the course and the fact that players need to be 100% focussed and prepared for this tough test from the outset.

Some players relish a grind, whereas others don’t have the mental approach to shrug off the inevitable bogeys or worse and they can quickly spiral downwards once the first few mistakes are made. For me, focussing on those players who have proven in the past that they can grind out a score on some of golf’s tougher tests is no bad attribute, however equally those players who are comfortable with the surroundings and the hot conditions may also be at an advantage.

My Final Hero Indian Open Tips Are As Follows:

Jeunghun Wang 2.5pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The top of the market is dominated by last week’s winner Thorbjorn Olesen, Nicolai Hojgaard and Robert MacIntyre all around the 10/1 to 12/1 mark or thereabouts, with the latter being given the benefit of the doubt by the bookies after some indifferent form of late.

Olesen would have been an interesting runner in this had he not won last week, given that his record post-victory in the past decade on the DP World Tour is less than inspiring at 52/28/MC/63/MC/MC. In terms of Hojgaard, this doesn’t appear to be a course you can simply overpower, with SSP Chawrasia’s win here underlining that assertion as one of the shortest hitters on Tour. Finally, Bob is simply not playing well enough in my view for me to consider him this week at the price on offer.

One player who is playing good enough golf to consider though is Jeunghun Wang, who arrives here off the back of an impressive 3rd place finish in Singapore and 8th last week in Thailand.

Caddy-captured Strokes Gained stats need a little due care and attention applied to their interpretation, however raw statistics of 7th for Driving Accuracy and 7th for Scrambling in the first of those two events, and 1st for Putting Average in the second, suggests that his all-round game is in the right kind of space for a challenging week like this.

Although ‘The Beast’ at Laguna National didn’t quite live up to its name, I’d have still preferred him on that layout to last week’s birdie-fest, so the very fact that he was in the mix last week is a disproportionate positive, even if he couldn’t keep up with the pace on Sunday, closing with a round of 70.

Two of the South Korean’s three wins at DP World Tour level have come at what I’d class as tougher tests, with his breakthrough victory in the 2016 Trophee Hassan II coming at 5-under par being followed up the following week in Mauritius at 6-under. His third and so far final win to date also holds some relevance, with it coming on the Bermudagrass greens of Doha on a similar length par 72.

With a little over 6 years having now elapsed since that success and some contention rust having been shaken off in recent times, I can see the talented 27 year-old getting back to winning ways here this week. RESULT: T32

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✅ Bonus code SPORT50 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Yannik Paul 2.5pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The only other player to interest me before we get into some much deeper prices is Yannik Paul.

I recall dismissing the German on the basis of his short price when he secured his breakthrough DP World Tour victory at the Mallorca Golf Open in October, holding off Nicolai von Dellingshausen and Paul Waring by a stroke, and in terms of quality this week’s task doesn’t feel a whole lot different.

After a slow start to 2023, 34th in Singapore improved to a runner-up finish to Thorbjorn Olesen last week in Thailand in an event where rounds of 65/69/66/68 saw him in contention throughout, without quite being able to keep up with the scoring prowess of the eventual winner.

A more stringent test like the one presented by DLF G&CC should suit though as he takes his first look at this Gary Player beauty. 9th for Driving Distance, 17th for Driving Accuracy, 5th for GIR, 14th for Scrambling and 12th for putting last week at Amata Spring is the kind of all-round game that may well prove to be the key to unlocking this course, with his quality iron-play in particular a key asset.

There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that tougher tests suit the 28 year-old. 2nd at the 2021 Challenge Tour Grand Final came with a 7-under total, and he came close to breaking his DP World Tour maiden last May when finishing runner-up to Sam Horsfield at the Soudal Open with an 11-under total. 8th at Le Golf National is further evidence that he can grind when needs be, so I’m happy to get Paul onside for this week. RESULT: 2nd

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✅ Bonus code SPORT50 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you five times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT50 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Manu Gandas 0.75pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Picking through the local players with the greatest potential this week, Manu Gandas sticks out like a sore thumb.

The PGTI Order of Merit winner from last year, Gandas won 6 tournaments on his home Tour in the 2022 calendar year and earned himself a stab at the DP World Tour this year for his efforts. Added to his maiden victory in 2021, that makes it a total of 7 wins in his last 33 starts which undoubtedly grabs a level of attention.

There could have been a seventh success last year on this week’s venue too, where he eventually finished runner-up to Varun Parikh, carding a 6-under total on this beast of a course.

To top it all, Gandas is attached to the DLF G&CC here in India, giving him plenty of chance to play the Gary Player course and understand its many nuances better than most.

Life on the DP World Tour hasn’t been plain sailing so far, which is reflected in his price this week. Missed cuts at the Ras al Khaimah Championship and Singapore Classic to start his campaign offered little in the way of encouragement, however 28th last week in Thailand was much better and the 26 year-old closed with a 68 – his best round of the week – and putted nicely throughout. Home comforts this week may well bring out further improvements at a tasty price. RESULT: T32

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✅ Bet £10 get £50 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT50 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Gaganjeet Bhullar 0.75pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Of the various ways a player might attempt to navigate around this Gary Player brute, hitting as many fairways and greens as possible is one viable option, and to that end Gaganjeet Bhullar fits the bill.

One of the more recognisable names from the home contingent, Bhullar has spent significant time on the European/DP World Tour over the years, recording top-10 finishes at the 2011 Czech Open, 2014 Abu Dhabi Championship, 2017 Czech Masters, 2019 Kenya Open and most recently he finished 2nd at the 2021 Qatar Masters. Add to that, he won the co-sanctioned Asian Tour/European Tour Fiji International in 2018 to prove that he can win at this level.

That success in Fiji rates as one of his ten Asian Tour titles, added to which he’s also amassed 12 PGTI wins over the years to suggest he’s a cut above the vast majority of his countrymen when it comes to actually winning events.

The Indonesian Open last August was the 34 year-old’s most recent Asian Tour success; the Jeev Milkha Singh Invitational 2 months later was his last win on the PGTI – he’s clearly been in top form in the not so recent past, plus he’s recorded a pair of top-5 finishes as recently as December to add further encouragement.

52nd in Oman and 22nd last week in Qatar on two tough tests on the Asian Tour should have him fully attuned to the task at hand this week, and he led Driving Accuracy and was 2nd for GIR on that most recent effort in Doha.

3 cuts made from 4 attempts here at the DLF G&CC have reaped nothing better than 24th place, however he’s clearly striking the ball well enough at present to improve on that considerably. RESULT: T44

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✅ Bet £10 get £50 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT50 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you five times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT50 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Om Prakash Chouhan 0.5pt EW 500/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Om Prakash Chouhan is described on his rather outdated PGTI profile as ‘the second most successful golfer to emerge from the state of Madhya Pradesh after the legendary Mukesh Kumar.’ High praise indeed.

Certainly Chouhan has a long way to go if he’s going to emulate his compatriot who amassed 21 PGTI wins over the course of his career, including the co-sanctioned Panasonic Open which rated as his first Asian Tour success at the age of 51, and he still plays today 6 years later.

Chouhan though does have 2 successes on the PGTI now, both of which have come in the past 2 years, and at the age of 36 the Indian would appear to be playing the best golf of his career, which does make him an interesting proposition this week on home soil.

Since the second of those successes at the Jaipur Open in September, Om has recorded 6 top-10 finishes from his next 9 starts and was in the mix on his 2023 reappearance the week before last at the PGTI Players Championship at Tollygunge, eventually finishing 7th.

One of those top-10s came here on the Player course at DLF G&CC, eventually finishing 4th to Varun Parikh with a 1-under total, suggesting that he’s got his head around the tough scoring conditions after a few false starts when he’s played this previously at this level. The competition here this week is undoubtedly tougher, however that experience may just help him sneak into the each-way places or better. RESULT: MC

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Varun Parikh 0.5pt EW 1,250/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Finally, few players can truly say that they’ve mastered this Gary Player creation and it seemed unlikely that Varun Parikh would add himself to that very short list after a quadruple bogey 8 on the 10th hole at the Kapil Dev Grant Thornton Invitational held here in September left him battling to even make the weekend.

Following a bogey on the 12th, the 24 year-old played the remaining 60 holes in 15-under par to secure a 6-shot victory and his maiden professional title into the bargain, closing with a pair of 67s as most other players struggled to break par. Given I’ve backed some of his nearest challengers that week at shorter prices, it seems remiss of me to not support him here at small stakes.

Of course, one swallow does not a summer make, and one standout result doesn’t imply future success of any description, however given that we only have SSP Chawrasia, Stephen Gallacher and Parikh himself as course winners in this week’s field, that effort only a few months ago has to be noted.

A rather average looking set of results from his 7 starts since that win goes a small way to explaining his price this week, however scratch just below the surface and there may just be some good underlying form as he heads into this week’s task.

16th at the Vooty Masters in late November saw Varun open up with a round of 66 to sit in 4th place after day 1, and he was in the mix again at the PGTI Tour Championship which finished on Christmas Day, sitting in 8th spot after 54 holes before a closing round of 73 meant he finished 19th.

38th on his first start of 2023 a week or so ago could have been much better if it weren’t for another closing round of 73, and with the rust shaken off perhaps he’ll push on again this week at the scene of his biggest career effort thus far. RESULT: MC

*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.

✅ Bet £10 get £50 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT50 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you five times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT50 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:25GMT 20.2.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.